Speculation: UFA Contract projections from fans vs projections from experts (data)

[Favin]

A user on CapFriendly has been tracking the average term and dollar amount for 2021 UFAs as submitted through the "Armchair GM" section of their website. I believe the premise was that the collective wisdom of fans will produce better contract projections than some of the 'experts'. I found it to be quite interesting and thought I would share here. They are ranked in order of most commonly signed. (I guess a lot of fans want Blake Coleman).

Most Commonly Signed UFAs by ACGMs - Top-10 at each position - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Rank. NAME (Pos): ACGM average contract (Evolving Wild Projected contract)

1. Blake Coleman (LW): 3 years x $3,602,506 (EW: 4yr x $4,759,000)
2. Dougie Hamilton (RHD): 6 years x $8,395,659 (EW: 7yr x $8,479,000)
3. Jamie Oleksiak (LHD): 3 years x $3,053,972 (EW: 5yr x $4,089,000)
4. Chris Driedger (G): 2 years x $3,132,374
5. Alec Martinez (LHD): 2 years x $5,165,152 (EW: 4yr x $5,655,000)

6. Phillip Danault (C): 5 years x $5,140,100 (EW: 7yr x $6,363,000)
7. Adam Larsson (RHD): 4 years x $4,087,500 (EW: 5yr x $4,069,000)
8. Jonathan Bernier (G): 2 years x $3,165,517
9. Zach Hyman (RW): 5 years x $4,980,263 (EW: 7yr x $6,850,000)
10. Barclay Goodrow (RW): 3 years x $2,238,596 (EW: 4yr x $3,063,000)

11. Linus Ullmark (G): 3 years x $3,873,148
12. Gabriel Landeskog (LW): 6 years x $7,516,346 (EW: 7yr x $8,784,000)
13. Jani Hakanpää (RHD): 2 years x $1,450,490 (EW: 1yr x $1,292,000)
14. Alexander Wennberg (C): 3 years x $3,487,000 (EW: 4yr x $4,248,000)
15. Joel Armia (RW): 3 years x $2,899,271 (EW: 3yr x $3,168,000)

16. Ian Cole (LHD): 2 years x $2,044,787 (EW: 1yr x $1,140,000)
17. Alex Ovechkin (LW): 3 years x $9,676,844 (EW: 3yr x $7,751,000)
18. Ryan Getzlaf (C): 1 years x $2,798,889 (EW: 1yr x $2,078,000)
19. Taylor Hall (LW): 4 years x $6,497,727 (EW: 7yr x $7,187,000)
20. Brandon Saad (RW): 4 years x $4,833,530 (EW: 4yr x $5,056,000)

21. Mikael Granlund (C): 3 years x $4,221,899 (EW: 4yr x $5,771,000)
22. Corey Perry (RW): 1 years x $1,37,209 (EW: 1yr x $1,153,000)
23. Philipp Grubauer (G): 5 years x $5,685,417
24. Zach Bogosian (RHD): 1 years x $1,150,030 (EW: 1yr x $0,934,000)
25. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (C): 5 years x $6,191,026 (EW: 7yr x $8,215,000)

26. Travis Hamonic (RHD): 2 years x $2,057,051 (EW: 1yr x $1,726,000)
27. Petr Mrázek (G): 2 years x $3,432,265
28. Erik Haula (C): 2 years x $2,519,231 (EW: 4yr x $3,576,000)
29. Cody Ceci (RHD): 2 years x $2,268,056 (EW: 3yr x $3,991,000)
30. James Reimer (G): 2 years x $2,244,444

31. Mike Reilly (LHD): 3 years x $2,676,162 (EW: 3yr x $3,654,000)
32. Brandon Montour (RHD): 3 years x $3,502,857 (EW: 5yr x $5,274,000)
33. Mike Smith (G): 1 years x $1,865,714
34. Jake McCabe (LHD): 3 years x $3,060,000 (EW: 1yr x $1,039,000)
35. Luke Glendening (C): 2 years x $1,548,971 (EW: 4yr x $2,976,000)

36. Tomas Tatar (LW): 2 years x $4,170,588 (EW: 3yr x $5,429,000)
37. Michael Bunting (LW): 2 years x $1,469,712 (EW: 1yr x $1,047,000)
38. David Krejci (C): 2 years x $4,989,063 (EW: 2yr x $4,423,000)
39. Jordan Martinook (C): 2 years x $2,090,054 (EW: 4yr x $3,003,000)
40. Tyson Barrie (RHD): 4 years x $5,389,022 (EW: 7yr x $6,742,000)

41. Nick Foligno (LW): 2 years x $2,415,667 (EW: 2yr x $3,008,000)
42. Tuukka Rask (G): 2 years x $4,791,379
43. Mike Hoffman (RW): 2 years x $4,524,138 (EW: 5yr x $5,808,000)
44. David Savard (RHD): 3 years x $3,794,828 (EW: 1yr x $1,668,000)
45. Tyler Bozak (C): 1 years x $1,923,897 (EW: 1yr x $1,338,000)

46. Kyle Palmieri (RW): 3 years x $4,394,643 (EW: 3yr x $4,299,000)
47. Alex Goligoski (LHD): 2 years x $2,878,571 (EW: 3yr x $4,801,000)
48. Vinnie Hinostroza (RW): 1 years x $1,321,429 (EW: 1yr x $1,098,000)
49. Casey Cizikas (C): 4 years x $2,562,500 (EW: 3yr x $2,375,000)
50. Paul Stastny (C): 2 years x $3,685,577 (EW: 1yr x $2,212,000)

Click to read more...

 

[SML2]

A couple GMs are going to look at this list in a few years and just think "if I didn't call that guy, I would still have a job..."

 

[Treb]

25. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (C): 5 years x $6,191,026 (EW: 7yr x $8,215,000)

Evolving Wild slightly wrong on that one

 

[Gregsky99]

It’s almost as if a lot of the EW values are pre-covid. We’ll probably see a lot of these guys signed for way less

 

[ThatGuy22]

It’s almost as if a lot of the EW values are pre-covid. We’ll probably see a lot of these guys signed for way less

Yep. Contract projections made off of evaluating years of rising caps aren't likely to be all that close in a year where the collective teams lost millions, and a flat cap.

 

[GAGLine]

It’s almost as if a lot of the EW values are pre-covid. We’ll probably see a lot of these guys signed for way less

When looking at EW numbers, or any of the "experts", you have to consider the context. They don't generally predict how many years the deal will be, and the number of years can greatly affect the AAV.

 

[Gregsky99]

When looking at EW numbers, or any of the "experts", you have to consider the context. They don't generally predict how many years the deal will be, and the number of years can greatly affect the AAV.

Typically not but in this case they have the EW projected years right in the OP

 

[Mowzie]

It’s almost as if a lot of the EW values are pre-covid. We’ll probably see a lot of these guys signed for way less

Nevermind

 

[vipera1960]

It’s almost as if a lot of the EW values are pre-covid. We’ll probably see a lot of these guys signed for way less

All the comparables are pre-COVID. It’s pretty obvious there was no adjustment made for a flat cap.

 

[Mac Attack]

When looking at EW numbers, or any of the "experts", you have to consider the context. They don't generally predict how many years the deal will be, and the number of years can greatly affect the AAV.

He literally has the number of years for the contact predicted from evolving wild on every contract. I agree with the previous comments, EW has to be using precovid data for this. I'm guessing he will be way off on a lot of these.

 

[pld459666]

Flat cap for the next 3+ years tells me EW is silly

 

[My3Sons]

25. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (C): 5 years x $6,191,026 (EW: 7yr x $8,215,000)

Evolving Wild slightly wrong on that one

To be fair, the fan consensus was off as well. It was a weird contract. It's almost like both sides figure he has five or six years left and then a couple of dead seasons at the end to lower the cap hit. I'll be curious what the payout structure is and if it is lopsided whether it eventually coincides with RNH hanging up his skates or going on LTIR.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Flat cap for the next 3+ years tells me EW is silly

I think they may be right on a few, given that GM's make stupid overpayments all the time. I expect Coleman, Goodrow, and some others to be paid around what EW expects (I still think Goodrow gets a Chris Tanev "WTF" deal), and a couple of others seem ridiculously high, like Hyman.

 

[The Nuge]

To be fair, the fan consensus was off as well. It was a weird contract. It's almost like both sides figure he has five or six years left and then a couple of dead seasons at the end to lower the cap hit. I'll be curious what the payout structure is and if it is lopsided whether it eventually coincides with RNH hanging up his skates or going on LTIR.

Healthy players don’t generally suddenly go on LTIR at 32

 

[Drumman44]

I wonder if the Capfriendly data was scraped or collected manually. Very impressive and a cool way to look at the “wisdom of the crowd” in action

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

If anybody signs Montour to a 5x5 they should be fired immediately.

 

[Kurtz]

Thanks for collecting this, OP. I think the crowd projections are far more accurate. Some of the EW projections are insane. Hyman 7 x 7? Barrie 7 x 7 ? Danault 7 x 6.5? RNH 7 x 8 ? Even before Covid, those were high evaluations in a cap world.

 

[themelkman]

Cal friendly people are always going to lowball because they are trying to see their team look the best. EW can’t factor in COVID much because it’s based on historical data

 

[My3Sons]

Healthy players don’t generally suddenly go on LTIR at 32

I agree but it’s a strange deal without knowing the details. Just my view.

 

[The Nuge]

I agree but it’s a strange deal without knowing the details. Just my view.

Why? Signing a guy until he’s 35 isn’t abnormal in any way for top 6 forwards/top 4 dmen

 

[My3Sons]

Why? Signing a guy until he’s 35 isn’t abnormal in any way for top 6 forwards/top 4 dmen

No, but how many 8 year deals have there been after those were set as the maximum term and how many have been near that average annual value? To me this looks like a disconnect between the term and the dollars. Usually I’d expect an 8 year term to be a big money contract like Stamkos or Stone or someone of that stature.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

No, but how many 8 year deals have there been after those were set as the maximum term and how many have been near that average annual value? To me this looks like a disconnect between the term and the dollars. Usually I’d expect an 8 year term to be a big money contract like Stamkos or Stone or someone of that stature.

Contract Signings - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Karlsson's $5.9 mil x 8 is pretty comparable. If a player wants to stay and the team values the short-term cap savings, signing bonuses (muted value with the escrow schedule) and significant term is the alternative. It will be interesting to see if it becomes a trend in the flat cap era.

 

[The Nuge]

No, but how many 8 year deals have there been after those were set as the maximum term and how many have been near that average annual value? To me this looks like a disconnect between the term and the dollars. Usually I’d expect an 8 year term to be a big money contract like Stamkos or Stone or someone of that stature.

He was projected to get like 7.5 per. He took a big discount to stay in Edmonton for that term with a NMC. And you don’t see many 8 year term deals because you can’t sign them as a UFA.

Erikson Ek andAnderson signed for max term in the last year as players who are worse than RNH.

Brayden Schenn is probably the best comp. He signed at 28 to an 8 year deal, and he got an extra 1.4 million per.

Since 2019, 30 players have signed deals for 7/8 years. 18 of which have signed for less than 7.5 per. 8 of which were 6 or less.

 

[My3Sons]

He was projected to get like 7.5 per. He took a big discount to stay in Edmonton for that term with a NMC. And you don’t see many 8 year term deals because you can’t sign them as a UFA.

Erikson Ek andAnderson signed for max term in the last year as players who are worse than RNH.

Brayden Schenn is probably the best comp. He signed at 28 to an 8 year deal, and he got an extra 1.4 million per.

Since 2019, 30 players have signed deals for 7/8 years. 18 of which have signed for less than 7.5 per. 8 of which were 6 or less.

I would have expected less than 7.5 with flat cap but more than he signed for. This may be an agent who has read the tea leaves based on last season and with the flat cap didn't see a pre-Covid market for wingers (even good ones) any time soon. If RNH is happy I'm happy for him.

 

[GordonGraham]

Most of the EW numbers are way over the top