UCLA and USC to join the Big Ten

[golfortennis1]

While there are indications they’ve been turned down for now, and a thousand other rumors are swirling, don’t assume it. Especially Oregon.

Most (not all) conference moves of late have shown market-size orientation. It seems like there’s more “educated” rumors suddenly around Stanford, for instance. Hard to make Oregon a foregone conclusion.

Another thing… seen other schools make pointed NIL plans. Haven’t really seen that out of Oregon, though who knows how waves the invisible hand of Nike. Thing is, if you look at Phil Knight’s recent activity, he might be distracted. And he’s not getting younger.

One school I think may "benefit" if you will from this is Cal, but not in the way people think. Keeping up with the arms race has indebted the athletic dept. in a ridiculous way. Maybe this is a way to bow out of big time sports and get away from the madness.

I've also come to the view as I age that sports shouldn't be tied to schools the way they are in the US, so I'm certainly jaded on the subject, but maybe this will make some schools sit back and really think things over. Chicago went from a football power in the first half of the 1900s to walking away from the Big Ten. You have to believe, even though the money is much greater today, that a school president or someone would wake up and ask wtf are we doing losing all this money on something that really isn't even why the institution exists.

ETZ: Of course there are far too many suits, both in the ADs, and president's offices, who love seeing their mug on TV etc., so that could be a pipe dream.

 

[PCSPounder]

One school I think may "benefit" if you will from this is Cal, but not in the way people think. Keeping up with the arms race has indebted the athletic dept. in a ridiculous way. Maybe this is a way to bow out of big time sports and get away from the madness.

I've also come to the view as I age that sports shouldn't be tied to schools the way they are in the US, so I'm certainly jaded on the subject, but maybe this will make some schools sit back and really think things over. Chicago went from a football power in the first half of the 1900s to walking away from the Big Ten. You have to believe, even though the money is much greater today, that a school president or someone would wake up and ask wtf are we doing losing all this money on something that really isn't even why the institution exists.

ETZ: Of course there are far too many suits, both in the ADs, and president's offices, who love seeing their mug on TV etc., so that could be a pipe dream.

That might be a very astute path for someone. It’d be REALLY interesting if Cal pulls a University of Chicago scant few years after a major rebuild of their football stadium. That wasn’t a minor expense.

Washington State and Oregon State also have some serious debts from spending what they thought would be more TV money than they ended up getting.

Cal is currently motivated and/or directed not to do business with Texas or several other states. So the chances of Berkeley specifically doing their own thing are certainly not zero.

 

[JimAnchower]

That might be a very astute path for someone. It’d be REALLY interesting if Cal pulls a University of Chicago scant few years after a major rebuild of their football stadium. That wasn’t a minor expense.

Washington State and Oregon State also have some serious debts from spending what they thought would be more TV money than they ended up getting.

Cal is currently motivated and/or directed not to do business with Texas or several other states. So the chances of Berkeley specifically doing their own thing are certainly not zero.

Wild prediction sure to go wrong. Cal and Stanford end up in the Ivy League in 10+ years. Travel wouldn't be easy and Cal/Stanford would have to stop athletic scholarships. This would after Big 10/SEC are done expanding and they are left on the sidelines, the Pac 12 dissolves, and independence isn't that appetizing in the long run.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

As someone that's been very wrong many times on the topic of NCAA realignment, I would be shocked if the Ivy League expanded any time in the foreseeable future, much less across the country to California. They're purposefully exclusionary and elitist (both positively and negatively) and I don't think they're looking towards any remote kind of increase, especially for a school the size of Cal.

Not to mention that Ivy League dollars pale in comparison to even Pac 12 and Big 12 dollars when it comes to sports revenue. That's a move that doesn't make sense for either side.

Even some kind of Frankenstein's Monster of an amalgamation between the Pac and Big 12s would make both schools more money.

 

[hockey20000]

this sucks hopefully my ducks can get a invite to big12.. want nothing to do with sec or big10 tbh

 

[JimAnchower]

Looks like Big 12 are trying to add six Pac-12 schools. U of A, ASU, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, and Washington.

Big 12 in ‘serious’ talks with 6 Pac-12 schools: Sources

The Big 12 is in “serious” talks with six Pac-12 members, sources told The Athletic. Those schools are Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon, Utah and Washington, sources said. It’s unclear how long it would take for the Big 12 to secure a deal on expansion efforts. Sources expressed...

theathletic.com

 

[KevFu]

It makes zero sense to me that the Pac-10 members would be bolting for the Big 12.

Last year, when Texas/Oklahoma left the Big 12, half the Big 12 asked the Pac-12 for an invite and got told no thanks. The Big 12 was facing media leaks that their TV rights were essentially worthless without their heavy hitters.

And now, what's changed? Adding Cincinnati, UCF, Houston and BYU from the American and Independent (who had single-digit TV rights revenues). The Pac-12 lost it's heavy hitters in LA, but still has the major CSAs of the Bay Area, Seattle, Phoenix, Portland, Denver, Salt Lake City and Tucson.

It sounds a lot to me like how ESPN was meddling last year, trying to get the Big 12 to break up so they saved $800 million in what they owed to the B12.

The Big 12 has a head start on negotiations with ESPN; if the Big 12 raids the Pac-12 for six members, then ESPN is getting the half the Pac-12 and the entire Big 12 at like $800m, while if the Pac-12 adds some Texas schools, they'd BOTH get like $600 each.


Hopefully the Pac-12 comes to their senses, invites TCU, Houston, Baylor and 1-3 others and we don't see even more shrinking relevance.

 

[edog37]

So basically all you're gonna have now is the SEC & Big 10, none of the other conferences will matter.

College football realignment news: Big Ten waiting to hear from one major program - College Football HQ

College Football HQ

www.si.com

essentially. It will turn college football into Major League Baseball

 

[edog37]

This keeps getting dumber and dumber. At what point do you get rid of conferences and create a super league? You'd have to think the "NCFL" would get a stronger TV package than all the major conferences fragmented on their own.

That's kinda where it is heading, but essentially, you would have two superconferences (Big 10 & SEC) & the rest would be the scraps.

 

[tank44]

It makes zero sense to me that the Pac-10 members would be bolting for the Big 12.

Hopefully the Pac-12 comes to their senses, invites TCU, Houston, Baylor and 1-3 others and we don't see even more shrinking relevance.

That would be better IMO too. New Pac-10 + TCU + Baylor + Houston + OK State + San Diego St + 1 more form UNLV/Boise/TXT/KS

Pac16 Pacific Division:
NW Pod: UW, WSU, OR, OSU
Pacific Pod:, Cal, Stan, SDSU, UNLV
Pac16 Mountain Division:
Mountain Pod: AZ, ASU, UT, CO
Central Pod: TCU, BAY, HOU, OKSt

 

[MMC]

 

[KevFu]

See, that right there is why the whole "Six Pac-12 members to the Big 12" is just ESPN trying to consolidate its portfolio.

It's in ESPN's best interest to have one mega conference of schools that everyone cares about (The SEC) vs another mega conference people care about (that they half-own, with Fox) and then pay EVERYONE ELSE peanuts for supplemental programming.

Basically how ESPN treated the NHL once they got the NBA. The Pac-12 and ACC are the NHL.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

See, that right there is why the whole "Six Pac-12 members to the Big 12" is just ESPN trying to consolidate its portfolio.

It's in ESPN's best interest to have one mega conference of schools that everyone cares about (The SEC) vs another mega conference people care about (that they half-own, with Fox) and then pay EVERYONE ELSE peanuts for supplemental programming.

Basically how ESPN treated the NHL once they got the NBA. The Pac-12 and ACC are the NHL.

remember, too, ESPN started the Longhorn Network, then SEC/ACC Networks are backed by them, the major difference is the major cable operators don't carry Longhorn the way they do ACC/SEC/Pac 12 as a "must carry" option

 

[PCSPounder]

Wild prediction sure to go wrong. Cal and Stanford end up in the Ivy League in 10+ years. Travel wouldn't be easy and Cal/Stanford would have to stop athletic scholarships. This would after Big 10/SEC are done expanding and they are left on the sidelines, the Pac 12 dissolves, and independence isn't that appetizing in the long run.

Some rumors have Cal and Stanford talking to Duke. Add Rice. What else could you add to create an FBS* Ivy? It probably wouldn’t be much more relevant than the Ivy, but I could see some niche interest.

One other thought along this line is how soon before ESPN decides that Vanderbilt is dead weight to them, and same with Fox and Northwestern?

* Subdivision name and structure subject to change, if you haven’t forgotten.

 

[PCSPounder]

Even some kind of Frankenstein's Monster of an amalgamation between the Pac and Big 12s would make both schools more money.

The primary reason I emphasized the debts at Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State is because you will need to recognize that this may not be the case. And even if an amalgamation maintained current funding levels, now the expenses go up. So this is anything but cut and dried.

These networks think more like hedge funds with every passing hour. To me, this feels like they’re trying to cut what they see as not drawing enough.

 

[golfortennis1]

As a Pac12/WestCoast college football fan, it's unnerving to be a part of the conference drama this time around. Pac12 staying put seems lame. Merging with remenenants of BXII or ACC does not seem inviting either. In the end, hopefully, UW & Oregon can join one of the super conferences and the rest is a mid-tier conference to rival the Mountain West.

Hypothetical Dream: Here's where something similar to the European Super League for soccer could have worked and even get Pro-Rel into American sports. Take the top 24 teams from the NCAA, from whatever metrics you want so you take most of the SEC, B1G and a couple others. These 24 teams go into 2 divisions. The top team in each division plays for the national title. The bottom team in each division gets relegated. The top 2 teams from the Bowl Division determined from regional bowls / playoffs would be promoted each season. Could also work with the BCS-FCS levels.

I guess the money will be too much to pass up, but I know one of the things holding back super conferences in the past was the simple fact the power teams(football that is) just did not want to be playing such a high caliber of opponent every single week. An Ohio State or Michigan wanted the Minnesota and Northwestern games as a breather, rest players, and get more guys in. Although I guess that ship has kind of sailed.

 

[golfortennis1]

That might be a very astute path for someone. It’d be REALLY interesting if Cal pulls a University of Chicago scant few years after a major rebuild of their football stadium. That wasn’t a minor expense.

Washington State and Oregon State also have some serious debts from spending what they thought would be more TV money than they ended up getting.

Cal is currently motivated and/or directed not to do business with Texas or several other states. So the chances of Berkeley specifically doing their own thing are certainly not zero.

It is interesting that they did just rebuild that stadium, and the mentality of "we just spent all this money we can't walk away" may carry the day, but they are really in a catch-22, because it doesn't appear they are reaping benefits from that "investment".

I just think a number of these schools, even if athletic departments are technically separate entities, will start rethinking whether the emphasis on the sports is really a good thing. I know there is all the "attention" and "application increase" data, but at some point there is a limit to how much that pays off. There are a lot of schools, and only so many students.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

I guess the money will be too much to pass up, but I know one of the things holding back super conferences in the past was the simple fact the power teams(football that is) just did not want to be playing such a high caliber of opponent every single week. An Ohio State or Michigan wanted the Minnesota and Northwestern games as a breather, rest players, and get more guys in. Although I guess that ship has kind of sailed.

The Big Ten is never going to cut schools. The bond is too deep and goes well beyond football. And yes, the power schools still want 'lesser' teams to play, that's how they remain power schools.

 

[KevFu]

Some rumors have Cal and Stanford talking to Duke. Add Rice. What else could you add to create an FBS* Ivy? It probably wouldn’t be much more relevant than the Ivy, but I could see some niche interest.

One other thought along this line is how soon before ESPN decides that Vanderbilt is dead weight to them, and same with Fox and Northwestern?

* Subdivision name and structure subject to change, if you haven’t forgotten.

Stanford, Cal, Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, Rice and Tulane are all AAU members and in the "At risk of being left behind" group.

Wake Forest, Syracuse and Kansas would also be in the convo.

 

[joelef]

It is interesting that they did just rebuild that stadium, and the mentality of "we just spent all this money we can't walk away" may carry the day, but they are really in a catch-22, because it doesn't appear they are reaping benefits from that "investment".

I just think a number of these schools, even if athletic departments are technically separate entities, will start rethinking whether the emphasis on the sports is really a good thing. I know there is all the "attention" and "application increase" data, but at some point there is a limit to how much that pays off. There are a lot of schools, and only so many students.

funy people who have been saying this for years was called all soerts of names

 

[KingLB]

What does this leave, Miami/ND as the last remaining “big names” not in either of the super conferences? (Oregon/Washington too if you count them)

 

[ColinM]

Some rumors have Cal and Stanford talking to Duke. Add Rice. What else could you add to create an FBS* Ivy? It probably wouldn’t be much more relevant than the Ivy, but I could see some niche interest.

One other thought along this line is how soon before ESPN decides that Vanderbilt is dead weight to them, and same with Fox and Northwestern?

* Subdivision name and structure subject to change, if you haven’t forgotten.

I have wondered about this too. There's no way a Mississippi State or Vanderbilt generates as much tv revenue as a Florida State or Clemson would. At some point you'd wonder if the SEC would want to purge some members in order to get a complete conference schedule in and likewise not have to share as much TV revenue.

Imagine an SEC like this:

Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A & M
Mizzou
LSU
Arkansas
Kentucky

Auburn
Alabama
Georgia
Florida
Florida State
Tennessee
Clemson

We can haggle over the exact teams but on the surface it seems like the ideal conference for ESPN.

 

[IU Hawks fan]

I have wondered about this too. There's no way a Mississippi State or Vanderbilt generates as much tv revenue as a Florida State or Clemson would. At some point you'd wonder if the SEC would want to purge some members in order to get a complete conference schedule in and likewise not have to share as much TV revenue.

Imagine an SEC like this:

Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A & M
Mizzou
LSU
Arkansas
Kentucky

Auburn
Alabama
Georgia
Florida
Florida State
Tennessee
Clemson

We can haggle over the exact teams but on the surface it seems like the ideal conference for ESPN.

Better off not purging and being at 16, it's more inventory.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

IS this the beginning of the end of ESPN not backing conference based networks outside of Longhorn which isn't as well known as either the SEC/ACC Networks that ESPN has brokered with the major cable operators, even the Pac 12 Network you had to request to add it even if it was offered(SEC/ACC are on Charter and not subscription based)

 

[golfortennis1]

I have wondered about this too. There's no way a Mississippi State or Vanderbilt generates as much tv revenue as a Florida State or Clemson would. At some point you'd wonder if the SEC would want to purge some members in order to get a complete conference schedule in and likewise not have to share as much TV revenue.

Imagine an SEC like this:

Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A & M
Mizzou
LSU
Arkansas
Kentucky

Auburn
Alabama
Georgia
Florida
Florida State
Tennessee
Clemson

We can haggle over the exact teams but on the surface it seems like the ideal conference for ESPN.

I think it would depend on how much they care about maintaining the facade about the academics. A Vanderbilt or a Northwestern gives a bit of cover that these :institutions of higher learning combine quality education with high level athletics."

The other part is those schools can help boost conference numbers in the non-revenue sports. Vandy has been a pretty good baseball program, Northwestern has some good programs.