UCLA and USC to join the Big Ten

StreetHawk

Registered User
Sep 30, 2017
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College football is getting killed. Unreal.
There is serious fallout for the smaller schools because the schools remaining in the Big12 and Pac12, without their 2 big schools, their slice of TV revenue is going to drop when TV contracts are due. Putting the athletic department into a difficult position of having to cut programs that lose the most money since they won't have enough tv money to sustain them.
 
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KevFu

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May 22, 2009
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And all of this could have been avoided in the early 80s if the NCAA had realized "Wait, if Oklahoma and Georgia WIN their court cases...." and made some kind of settlement. Like:

The TV rights must be bought from the NCAA for 50% of the revenue the conferences get; and the NCAA will distribute an equal share of that money to everyone.

Then the difference between richest and poorest would be $31 million (SEC) vs $4.4 million
 
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KevFu

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May 22, 2009
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The Pac-12 (Well, Pac-10) will definitely aim for the Texas schools in the Big 12 first.

No offense to UNLV/UNR but Reno isn't big, UNLV isn't good at football. And neither really thrill University Presidents with academics.

The best move would be to invite six schools: TCU, Baylor, Houston, SMU, Kansas and Oklahoma State.

Of course they should CONSIDER San Diego St, BYU, Iowa St, Texas Tech and Air Force; but I really can't think of any reason to take those guys over the six I listed.
 

DaveG

Noted Jerk
Apr 7, 2003
51,244
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The Pac-12 (Well, Pac-10) will definitely aim for the Texas schools in the Big 12 first.

No offense to UNLV/UNR but Reno isn't big, UNLV isn't good at football. And neither really thrill University Presidents with academics.

The best move would be to invite six schools: TCU, Baylor, Houston, SMU, Kansas and Oklahoma State.

Of course they should CONSIDER San Diego St, BYU, Iowa St, Texas Tech and Air Force; but I really can't think of any reason to take those guys over the six I listed.
This is assuming that the PAC is going to be in a better financial spot than the Big 12 to begin with, which they weren't even before the news of USC and UCLA leaving. Difference per school was about 5m and that's before factoring in tier 3 rights for the Big 12. If anything I can see the Big 12 raiding the Pac to take Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and ASU, though I think the most likely outcome is a full on merger of what remains of the 2.
 
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joelef

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Nov 22, 2011
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And all of this could have been avoided in the early 80s if the NCAA had realized "Wait, if Oklahoma and Georgia WIN their court cases...." and made some kind of settlement. Like:

The TV rights must be bought from the NCAA for 50% of the revenue the conferences get; and the NCAA will distribute an equal share of that money to everyone.

Then the difference between richest and poorest would be $31 million (SEC) vs $4.4 million
No if the NFL werent such cheapskates started a junior pro league and got rid of there age requirment we wouldnt be in this predictment.
 

mouser

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Jul 13, 2006
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And all of this could have been avoided in the early 80s if the NCAA had realized "Wait, if Oklahoma and Georgia WIN their court cases...." and made some kind of settlement. Like:

The TV rights must be bought from the NCAA for 50% of the revenue the conferences get; and the NCAA will distribute an equal share of that money to everyone.

Then the difference between richest and poorest would be $31 million (SEC) vs $4.4 million

You’re smart enough to know any 80’s settlement would never have lasted the test of time.

If it didn’t fall apart in the 80’s then it would have in the 90’s. The big schools would have simply left the NCAA to form a new organization.
 
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mouser

Business of Hockey
Jul 13, 2006
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The Pac-12 (Well, Pac-10) will definitely aim for the Texas schools in the Big 12 first.

No offense to UNLV/UNR but Reno isn't big, UNLV isn't good at football. And neither really thrill University Presidents with academics.

The best move would be to invite six schools: TCU, Baylor, Houston, SMU, Kansas and Oklahoma State.

Of course they should CONSIDER San Diego St, BYU, Iowa St, Texas Tech and Air Force; but I really can't think of any reason to take those guys over the six I listed.

I‘m assuming Oregon and Washington are gone to the Big Ten. Leaving us a disjointed PAC8.
 
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mouser

Business of Hockey
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This is assuming that the PAC is going to be in a better financial spot than the Big 12 to begin with, which they weren't even before the news of USC and UCLA leaving. Difference per school was about 5m and that's before factoring in tier 3 rights for the Big 12. If anything I can see the Big 12 raiding the Pac to take Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and ASU, though I think the most likely outcome is a full on merger of what remains of the 2.

Big 12 is also awaiting the next tv contract negotiation fallout of Texas and Oklahoma leaving.

I do agree some sort of merger of the remnants makes sense. Wonder which schools get left out, if any in a merger though.
 
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DaveG

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Apr 7, 2003
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Big 12 is also awaiting the next tv contract negotiation fallout of Texas and Oklahoma leaving.

I do agree some sort of merger of the remnants makes sense. Wonder which schools get left out, if any in a merger though.
Personally I'd leave out UCF and maybe Houston, but I can see them going to 22 knowing full well that another SEC and B1G raid is coming soon as the ACC grant of rights is over in a decade. UNC, Duke, and UVa are too egotistical to allow themselves to be left out of the cool kids party.
 

IU Hawks fan

They call me IU
Dec 30, 2008
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No if the NFL werent such cheapskates started a junior pro league and got rid of there age requirment we wouldnt be in this predictment.
No one would care about a pro football minor league. It wouldn't be the TV behemoth that college football is.
 

46zone

Pass me the soft pretzels
Feb 5, 2007
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Philadelphia
I‘m assuming Oregon and Washington are gone to the Big Ten. Leaving us a disjointed PAC8.

Stanford could be as well if it meant the Big 10 also getting Notre Dame along with them. Then again, I could also envision the BIg 10 prioritizing North Carolina & Virginia over the Pacific Northwest schools.
I do agree some sort of merger of the remnants makes sense. Wonder which schools get left out, if any in a merger though.

My guess would be Oregon State & Washington State. I could see the Big 12 becoming the third superconference that is made up of the strongest (and this is relative) unpoached programs from the Big 12, Pac 10, and ACC.
 

KevFu

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May 22, 2009
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This is assuming that the PAC is going to be in a better financial spot than the Big 12 to begin with, which they weren't even before the news of USC and UCLA leaving. Difference per school was about 5m and that's before factoring in tier 3 rights for the Big 12. If anything I can see the Big 12 raiding the Pac to take Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and ASU, though I think the most likely outcome is a full on merger of what remains of the 2.

Yeah, but the reason the Big 12 was higher was because they partnered with ESPN for the cable network, so ESPN had a vested interest in the Big 12 "Winning" over the Pac-12; and the Pac-12 botched their Network so badly.

The Pac-12 is not THAT much worse at sports than the Big 12 (except in men's basketball).

To me, it comes down to TV markets. The Pac-12 is the better choice. The Big 12 footprint has 77 million in population. But they got there by adding UCF (4th most popular team in the state), and Cincinnati (2nd); and they lost the two most popular school in Texas, and most popular in Oklahoma.

The Pac-12 footprint is 68 million people, but the top two teams in Washington, Oregon, Arizona; and the top teams in Utah, Colorado. And 3rd/4th in California.

For TCU, Baylor, Houston and Texas Tech, THEY GET TO PICK which group is better. If they join the Pac-12, it's 98 million footprint vs 47 million!

Are the getting more mileage out of being in the same conference as UCF, which is one trip every four years to a fertile recruiting state... or Stanford/Cal, which is TWO trips every four years to a fertile recruiting state TWICE AS BIG? Are they going to get better ties to Nike joining the Pac-12?

Do you want to cast you lot with San Francisco/San Jose/Oakland, Phoenix, Seattle, Denver, Portland, Salt Lake City? Or Cincinnati, Orlando, Morgantown, Stillwater, Lawrence, Ames, and Manhattan Kansas?
 

KevFu

Registered User
May 22, 2009
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Phoenix from Rochester via New Orleans
Mergers never make sense. They do from 30,000 feet looking at grids on a box, but...

You have to remember that all of this is done out of SELF INTEREST. There's no cooperation.

THE CONFERENCE OFFICE is not going to negotiate themselves out of their own jobs -- you don't need TWO commissioners in a merged league. So the self-interest of the Pac-12 office is to keep existing.

If they can't get any Big 12 members to join them, they'll raid the Mountain West.


This kind of talk happens EVERY TIME a big move happens. Once the announcement comes out, for the next 72 hours, everyone is picking apart the league that got raided and disbanding it completely.

But that's happened ONCE, like, ever. The Big 12 lost Texas and Oklahoma, and everyone was sending their members to the American and Mountain West for 72 hours. Then the Big 12 raided the American; and everyone was dividing the AAC among the MWC, Sun Belt and C-USA. But they raided C-USA.

The Pac-12 will just raid the best conference they can in response.
 

GindyDraws

I will not disable my Adblock, HF
Mar 13, 2014
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No one would care about a pro football minor league. It wouldn't be the TV behemoth that college football is.
Spring football is always this thing that people want to happen, but every time it does, it falls flat when you realize the talent isn't there and investors are always afraid of short-term losses.

There is gonna be a 30 for 30 on how bad Larry Scott’s tenure for the PAC-12
People were yelling at Kevin Warren for not doing anything after Texas and Oklahoma went to the SEC and then a few months later, he goes and hauls in the biggest marlin he could catch out in the ocean with his bare hands.

Larry Scott oversaw the disaster that was the PAC-12 Network, and I believe that was one reason why USC and UCLA bailed. Why be on something that can't get onto basic cable networks when you can get on the biggest provider with a hefty contract?
 
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No Fun Shogun

34-38-61-10-13-15
May 1, 2011
56,376
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Illinois
Spring football tends to fail because people are usually satiated with football after the respective ends of the NFL and NCAA seasons. Having breathers between the postseason and preseason are pretty important not just for players but for fan interest as well.

Also doesn't hurt that while the NCAA and NFL are entrenched, multigenerational brands, spring football leagues are just random start ups (though with the USFL clinging on to long dormant names).

Whether or not a minor league football league would work is anybody's guess, but I doubt that there are enough markets that could sustain a team during the traditional regular season vying with pro and collegiate attention. So that by default leaves spring- and summer-time, which most football fans seem to be okay with having a break from football and thereby going without watching.
 
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varsaku

Registered User
Feb 14, 2014
2,571
837
United States
College football is getting killed. Unreal.
Honestly the five and many four star recruits already go to the top football programs which is not going to change with these super conferences.

Big 12 is also awaiting the next tv contract negotiation fallout of Texas and Oklahoma leaving.

I do agree some sort of merger of the remnants makes sense. Wonder which schools get left out, if any in a merger though.
Big 12 is not going to survive without Texas and Oklahoma. I am sure many schools would jump ship the moment an opportunity arises. A TV contract without those two would be a fraction of what it already is at. That would pretty much hurt any program clinging onto the BIG12.
 

PCSPounder

Stadium Groupie
Apr 12, 2012
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The Outskirts of Nutria Nanny
I‘m assuming Oregon and Washington are gone to the Big Ten. Leaving us a disjointed PAC8.
While there are indications they’ve been turned down for now, and a thousand other rumors are swirling, don’t assume it. Especially Oregon.

Most (not all) conference moves of late have shown market-size orientation. It seems like there’s more “educated” rumors suddenly around Stanford, for instance. Hard to make Oregon a foregone conclusion.

Another thing… seen other schools make pointed NIL plans. Haven’t really seen that out of Oregon, though who knows how waves the invisible hand of Nike. Thing is, if you look at Phil Knight’s recent activity, he might be distracted. And he’s not getting younger.
 

tank44

Registered User
Feb 1, 2012
646
168
Seattle, WA
As a Pac12/WestCoast college football fan, it's unnerving to be a part of the conference drama this time around. Pac12 staying put seems lame. Merging with remenenants of BXII or ACC does not seem inviting either. In the end, hopefully, UW & Oregon can join one of the super conferences and the rest is a mid-tier conference to rival the Mountain West.

Hypothetical Dream: Here's where something similar to the European Super League for soccer could have worked and even get Pro-Rel into American sports. Take the top 24 teams from the NCAA, from whatever metrics you want so you take most of the SEC, B1G and a couple others. These 24 teams go into 2 divisions. The top team in each division plays for the national title. The bottom team in each division gets relegated. The top 2 teams from the Bowl Division determined from regional bowls / playoffs would be promoted each season. Could also work with the BCS-FCS levels.
 

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