Prospect Info: Tyler Boucher (F) - PART III

[Sens of Anarchy]

What # was our 10OA (and the second highest drafted prospect) on your recent list ?

Answer the question

 

[Ice-Tray]

Same as being lumped in to the haters group except more compassionate and understanding.

As you have said to me, I am not lumping you in there.

Awe man, another of my attempts at wry humour falling flat??

 

[ijif]

Well, for one thing, 15 years is a pretty small sample.

I mentioned it before but 10 is a weird anomoly in that historically it's done more poorly than picks that follow it. You could throw a dart at McKenzie's 1st round list and get better results than historical 10 OA

I think the % are based on what the model would have chosen, not who actually got chosen.

No, that chart is based on the prospects that NHL teams selected; however, the numbers are from TopDownHockey's model.

This is the NHL chart:

Pick Position	Year Range	Star Prob	NHL Prob	WAR
#1	2007-2021	74.62%	96.54%	227.4
#5	2007-2021	27.61%	73.54%	81.9
#10	2007-2021	22.69%	56.43%	41.9
#15	2007-2021	7.18%	42.11%	48.6
#20	2007-2021	7.93%	37.02%	44.1
#25	2007-2021	5.62%	33.67%	23.6
#30	2007-2021	6.13%	23.79%	42.8
Total	2007-2021	N/A	N/A	510.3

This is TopDownHockey's chart

Pick Position	Year Range	Star Prob	NHL Prob	WAR
#1	2007-2021	88.60%	99.12%	193.9
#5	2007-2021	68.10%	94.60%	82.5
#10	2007-2021	46.50%	85.49%	74.5
#15	2007-2021	33.44%	76.74%	19.4
#20	2007-2021	23.29%	71.04%	27.1
#25	2007-2021	19.85%	61.25%	45
#30	2007-2021	15.41%	54.62%	19.6
Total	2007-2021	N/A	N/A	462

This is Byron Bader's chart:

Pick Position	Year Range	Star Prob	NHL Prob	WAR
#1	2007-2021	83%	90%	191.4
#5	2007-2021	74%	84%	100.6
#10	2007-2021	52%	75%	20.7
#15	2007-2021	44%	70%	32.3
#20	2007-2021	35%	64%	40
#25	2007-2021	30%	62%	12.2
#30	2007-2021	25%	61%	40.3
Total	2007-2021	N/A	N/A	437.5

There are three things I should note:

1. TopDownHockey's model would have selected Alexi Cherepanov over Patrick Kane at the 2007 draft. Bader's model does select Patrick Kane. There is no fair way to do this, but if we remove Kane from the calculation, we end up with the NHL at 478.5 WAR, TopDownHockey at 462 WAR, and Byron Bader at 406 WAR. These number can change since players are still playing, so it is basically a toss-up between NHL scouts and TopDownHockey.

2. Models cannot take a prospect twice. For example, since Cherepanov was selected at #1 in 2007 by TopDownHockey, it cannot select him at #5 and so on.

3. The only two prospects that all three methods would have picked are Elias Lindholm and Cole Caufield.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

The Boucher debate can be shelved for the summer at this point. It's well documented and nothing more is going to come from it. Baiting someone into another dead end discussion by challenging them to define 'fine' is just asking for more unnecessary and combative pollution on these boards, imo.

I'd extend that from the summer to the next two seasons or so.

Kid needs a lot of development time. Watching every move the kid makes for the next little while will just drive people nuts.

 

[playasRus]

I'd extend that from the summer to the next two seasons or so.

Kid needs a lot of development time. Watching every move the kid makes for the next little while will just drive people nuts.

Is Boucher our Bruno Caboclo? He's two years away from being two years away?

 

[BondraTime]

Would be nice if a few NHL teams held their guys out of the World Juniors this August and Boucher got a call.

Can’t see any guys other than Beniers and possibly Cooley though being held out by Seattle and whomever.

 

[cudi]

 

[BondraTime]

Jesus 35 forwards.

Makes sense as it’s a double camp for the tournament in August and the Tournament in December.

I know I’d be extremely pissed if I lost my earned spot to a guy who wasn’t there before.

Josh Doan getting an invite is going to scare a guy like Dominic James. No other reason to invite a 20 year old who’s only eligible for the August tournament unless there’s serious push to have him on the team.

Extremely fortunate for Bordeleau though, made each team the past 2 years and had to miss each tournament because of Covid. He’ll be an addition to the team for sure, so there will be at minimum 1 forward from the December team getting cut. That’s so shitty.

Beniers was the only one I thought would get held out from the NHL team, that makes sense. Sanderson likely does if healthy as well.

I’d imagine there will be 2/3 new guys up front, definitely a spot or 2 for Boucher, Nazar, McGroaty, Doan, Howard, Gauthier to slide into.

 

[SquidNasty]

Why do so many people seem to believe McGuire was behind the Boucher pick?

He was hired shortly before the draft so there’s no way his voice trumped Mann + Dorion. The only evidence I could find was this tweet but it’s just some random guy on Twitter and is likely meaningless.

 

[BondraTime]

Why do so many people seem to believe McGuire was behind the Boucher pick?

He was hired shortly before the draft so there’s no way his voice trumped Mann + Dorion. The only evidence I could find was this tweet but it’s just some random guy on Twitter and is likely meaningless.

Yeah that’s most definitely just a guy pretending to have inside knowledge

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Would be nice if a few NHL teams held their guys out of the World Juniors this August and Boucher got a call.

Can’t see any guys other than Beniers and possibly Cooley though being held out by Seattle and whomever.

If they’re draft elegible I would think they’re not playing. But then again which of the draft elgiblws would even make it

 

[BondraTime]

If they’re draft elegible I would think they’re not playing. But then again which of the draft elgiblws would even make it

It's after the draft, same camp as every year aside from added players this year because of the WJ being held in August.

I'd be quite surprised if Nazar and Gauthier weren't on the team, the group the US took in December was among their weakest ever, the only forward they are losing is Beniers though, and Borderleau has been added for sure. But there were quite a few weak forwards on the team, I have no clue how they feel about adding players who never made it in December and cutting those who did.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

It's after the draft, same camp as every year aside from added players this year because of the WJ being held in August.

I'd be quite surprised if Nazar and Gauthier weren't on the team, the group the US took in December was among their weakest ever, the only forward they are losing is Beniers though, and Borderleau has been added for sure. But there were quite a few weak forwards on the team, I have no clue how they feel about adding players who never made it in December and cutting those who did.

Oh shiiii it is after the draft

 

[BondraTime]

Oh shiiii it is after the draft

It's the summer camp to prepare for the December World Juniors, just with a ton of added players because of the August World Juniors for the 20 year olds.

Will be the first, and likely only time, there will ever be 20 year olds at a World Junior Summer camp, and there are ~20+ of them of them

Canada went with a completely different approach with theirs, having only a 2023 camp.

Ostapchuk is attending, but none of the 2022 World Junior team were invited, even those who are eligible for the 2023 team, opening a lot of spots for invites.

Guys like Stankoven, McTavish, Lambos, Bedard, Zellwegger, etc weren't invited to the Summer camp, even though they are able to play in December. That tells me they are keeping the team fully intact, outside of guys like Power who will/may be held out by their NHL team.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Would be nice if a few NHL teams held their guys out of the World Juniors this August and Boucher got a call.

Can’t see any guys other than Beniers and possibly Cooley though being held out by Seattle and whomever.

Boucher is one of 40 invited.

 

[BondraTime]

Boucher is one of 40 invited.

Unless my math is off, there were 60 invited

 

[Golden_Jet]

Unless my math is off, there were 60 invited

Yep my bad, it was more about telling you he was invited, admit I never counted.

 

[Que]

I think people conflate toughness, fighting and policing the game.

You don’t have to be tough to fight, but it helps.

You also don’t have to fight to ‘police’ the opposition.

The threat of getting your bell rung so hard you go back a paycheque keeps liberties from being taken.

And this is where Boucher fits in for us. Regardless of how well, or even if he fights - this kid can rock your f¥€#*ng world.

I can’t wait to see Brady on the bench losing his mind after Boucher throttles someone through the glass.

Full sicko.

 

[Icelevel]

Boucher living with Sanderson and Greig. Can’t wait to have those three join the team. Great that they’re getting to know and learn from each other now.
Things are going to get fun in the next few years.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Nice to hear he’s in Ottawa with the boys

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Here is the highlight video I created for his 2022 season. I had planned on creating a Shifts & Clips video based on his 67's game and recorded the games on Rogers Ignite, but Rogers has some software that prevents me from recording my screen when streaming the games. At this point it seems unlikely that I will end up creating that video. From the footage I could access and record from different sources here is his highlight video of the 2022 season.