Prospect Info: Tyler Boucher (F) - PART III

[BondraTime]

Definitely too low on his becoming an NHLer projection. Had an extremely rough year obviously, but his game will translate to the bottom 6 pretty easily.

Obviously the model uses 200+ games with a positive WAR as a barometer for a guy being an NHLer, I don't follow or use that personally, I think Boucher's game will translate to the bottom 6 pretty easily, though likely not be very productive

 

[cudi]

Definitely too low on his becoming an NHLer projection. Had an extremely rough year obviously, but his game will translate to the bottom 6 pretty easily.

Obviously the model in that uses 200+ games with a positive WAR as a barometer for a guy being an NHLer, I don't follow or use that personally, I think Boucher's game will translate to the bottom 6 pretty easily, though likely not be very productive

this. I def dont agree with the 4% chance at making the NHL. Im quite confident he'll be an NHLer. More than a 4th liner tho? Verdict is still out.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Who did you google? Todd Cordell who commented and posted a viz, JFresh who made the viz, or Topdown hockey who made the model referenced in the viz?

If it was the first one, your google search wasn't particularly well used time,

Figured that out afterwards

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Pierre McGuire had his paws on this pick

 

[BondraTime]

Pierre McGuire had his paws on this pick

Extremely, extremely, extremely doubtful

 

[GermanSpitfire]

Extremely, extremely, extremely doubtful

It’s a good scapegoat.

McGuire would push for someone like Boucher.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Extremely, extremely, extremely doubtful

Yeah, talk about a way to alienate literally your entire front office

 

[BondraTime]

It’s a good scapegoat.

McGuire would push for someone like Boucher.

He wouldn’t have had a single input into the draft being hired 10 days before, and Boucher ticks every single box that our scouting team prioritizes over the past 10ish years

Late riser
NHL bloodlines
USNTDP
Size
Compete
Physicality

It’s a Sens pick through and through, long before McGuire was here

 

[cudi]

He wouldn’t have had a single input into the draft being hired 10 days before, and Boucher ticks every single box that our scouting team prioritizes over the past 10ish years

Late riser
NHL bloodlines
USNTDP
Size
Compete
Physicality

It’s a Sens pick through and through, long before McGuire was here

given how defensive Mann seems any time the pick is brought up, seems like his guy.

 

[ijif]

I feel like it should be noted that the model posted on the previous page gave Boucher, at the time of the draft, a 4.10% chance of being a star and a 19.84% chance of being an NHL player.

For reference, if we look at drafts from 2007-2021 (farthest I can go back), we can see average values for each draft position based on the model:

Pick Position	Year Range	Star Prob	NHL Prob
#1	2007-2021	74.62%	96.54%
#5	2007-2021	27.61%	73.54%
#10	2007-2021	22.69%	56.43%
#15	2007-2021	7.18%	42.11%
#20	2007-2021	7.93%	37.02%
#25	2007-2021	5.62%	33.67%
#30	2007-2021	6.13%	23.79%

 

[OD99]

I feel like it should be noted that the model posted on the previous page gave Boucher, at the time of the draft, a 4.10% chance of being a star and a 19.84% chance of being an NHL player.

For reference, if we look at drafts from 2007-2021 (farthest I can go back), we can see average values for each draft position based on the model:

Pick Position	Year Range	Star Prob	NHL Prob
#1	2007-2021	74.62%	96.54%
#5	2007-2021	27.61%	73.54%
#10	2007-2021	22.69%	56.43%
#15	2007-2021	7.18%	42.11%
#20	2007-2021	7.93%	37.02%
#25	2007-2021	5.62%	33.67%
#30	2007-2021	6.13%	23.79%

Thanks for this. Do they provide the actuals as well? So in 2007 they had X as projection and Y as how it turned out?

 

[Micklebot]

I feel like it should be noted that the model posted on the previous page gave Boucher, at the time of the draft, a 4.10% chance of being a star and a 19.84% chance of being an NHL player.

For reference, if we look at drafts from 2007-2021 (farthest I can go back), we can see average values for each draft position based on the model:

Pick Position	Year Range	Star Prob	NHL Prob
#1	2007-2021	74.62%	96.54%
#5	2007-2021	27.61%	73.54%
#10	2007-2021	22.69%	56.43%
#15	2007-2021	7.18%	42.11%
#20	2007-2021	7.93%	37.02%
#25	2007-2021	5.62%	33.67%
#30	2007-2021	6.13%	23.79%

I'm curious how the model has performed so far, though Idk if it's been around long enough to have much data. It's one thing to make a model that can predict the past based on inputting some variables, but for example, how well in 2018 did the model predict 2018 draftee outcomes that we only now can really verify?

 

[Burkeocet]

Colorado took Tyson Jost tenth overall not that long ago

Yeah, and how has that worked out?

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Yeah, and how has that worked out?

They’re currently in the cup final. I responded to a post saying you can’t build anything while botching 10th overall picks. You can.

 

[Micklebot]

They’re currently in the cup final. I responded to a post saying you can’t build anything while botching 10th overall picks. You can.

To add to your point, Tbay drafted Koekkoek 10th OA, he's what, a 3rd pair d? and they won two cups, and are trying for a third, so you can definitely miss on a top 10 pick and still build a beast of a team.

Having said that, nobody was drafting Jost thinking he'd top out at a 3rd line player or Koekkoek thinking he was a bottom pair guy, just like we presumably didn't think Boucher was a 3rd liner.

 

[ijif]

I'm curious how the model has performed so far, though Idk if it's been around long enough to have much data. It's one thing to make a model that can predict the past based on inputting some variables, but for example, how well in 2018 did the model predict 2018 draftee outcomes that we only now can really verify?

Well, this is a hard question to answer for many reasons. First, there is no universal player ranking system. Second, I don't have the computer skills to see margin of error per pick. Lastly, the model goes back to 2007, but even with split data, the model is still able to use information from, say, the 2017 draft to inform projections in the 2007 draft. On the other hand, NHL teams can use stats and eye-test, they can control development, and they can make trades at the draft table. The above makes a straight comparison not exactly fair for either side. With that being said, the model was made before the 2021 draft, so that is new data for the model.

Anyway, the chart below contains the picks the model would have made with Ottawa's picks. I am assuming the model selects the player with the highest star probability. Each user is free to decide how to evaluate the picks. I kept goalies the same.

Year	Pick	OTT Pick	TDH Pick
2021	10	T. Boucher	C. Sillinger
2021	39	Z. Ostapchuk	S. Pastujov
2021	49	B. Roger	M. Knies
2021	74	O. Johnasson	A. Suvorov
2021	123	C. Latimer	C. Kurth
2021	202	C. Romeo	S. Jasecko
2020	3	T. Stutzle	M. Rossi
2020	5	J. Sanderson	A. Lundell
2020	28	R. Grieg	J. Mysak
2020	33	R. Jarventie	S. Halliday
2020	44	T. Kleven	M. Beryozkin
2020	61	E. Sokolov	T. Tullio
2020	71	L. Merilanien	L. Merilainen
2020	155	E. Engstrand	K. Kilkorka
2020	158	P. Daoust	W. Schingoethe
2020	181	C. Reinhardt	L. Morrison
2019	19	L. Thomson	A. Kaliyev
2019	32	S. Pinto	M. Kokkenen
2019	37	M. Sogaard	M. Sogaard
2019	94	V. Lodin	E. Keppen
2019	125	M. Kastelic	M. Gildon
2019	187	M. Guenette	R. Siedem
2018	4	B. Tkachuk	E. Bouchard
2018	26	J. Bernard-Docker	Z. Reszegh
2018	48	J. Tychonick	C. Addison
2018	95	J. Gruden	A. McShane
2018	126	A. Crookshank	E. Sokolov
2018	157	K. Mandolese	K. Mandolese
2018	188	J. Novak	D. Deryabin
2018	194	L. Loheit	N. Dunkley
2017	28	S. Bowers	J. Robertson
2017	47	A. Formenton	M. Shaw
2017	121	D. Batherson	J. Turkulainen
2017	183	J. Hollett	N. Popugayev
2016	11	L. Brown	A. Debrincat
2016	42	J. Dahlen	J. Dahlen
2016	103	T. Burgess	I. Shvyryov
2016	133	M. Lajoie	D. Sokolov
2016	163	M. Nurmi	D. Quenneville
2015	18	T. Chabot	J. Bracco
2015	21	C. White	K. Kaprizov
2015	36	G. Gagne	R. Hintz
2015	48	F. Chlapik	M. Vande Sompel
2015	107	C. Wolanin	K. Pilipenko
2015	109	F. Ahl	D. Salituro
2015	139	C. Jaros	N. Korostelev
2015	199	J. Daccord	J. Daccord
2014	40	A. Englund	B. Point
2014	70	M. Gendron	C. De Leo
2014	100	S. Eiserman	T. Baillie
2014	189	K. Summers	S. Watson
2014	190	F. Perron	V. Tkachyov
2013	17	C. Lazar	A. Lehkonen
2013	78	M. Hogberg	M. Hogberg
2013	102	T. Lindberg	J. Ikonen
2013	108	B. Harpur	L. Johnson
2013	138	V. Dunn	T. Moore
2013	161	C. Leblanc	B. Harms
2013	168	Q. Shore	G. Guertler
2012	15	C. Ceci	T. Hertl
2012	76	C. Driedger	C. Dreidger
2012	82	J. Maidens	N. Prokhorkin
2012	106	T. Boyle	C. Bertschy
2012	136	R. Baillargeon	A. Kadeykin
2012	166	F. Brassard	N. Klyuchnikov
2012	196	M. Wikstrand	A. Cangelosi
2011	6	M. Zibanejad	R. Murphy
2011	21	S. Noesen	N. Kucherov
2011	24	M. Puempel	M. Puempel
2011	61	S. Prince	Z. Arzamastev
2011	96	J. Pageau	J. Gaudreau
2011	126	F. Claesson	S. Ambroz
2011	156	D. Kramer	S. Abramov
2011	171	M. McCormick	S. Salminen
2011	186	J. Fransoo	E. Ageyev
2011	204	R. Dzingel	S. Shmelyov
2010	76	J. Culek	A. Panarin
2010	106	M. Sorenson	M. Kitsyn
2010	178	M. Stone	N. Gusev
2010	196	B. Aneloski	S. Barbashev
2009	9	J. Cowen	R. Ellis
2009	39	J. Silfverberg	A. Avtsin
2009	46	R. Lehner	R. Lehner
2009	100	C. Wideman	D. Sobchenko
2009	130	M. Hoffman	A. Raisov
2009	146	J. Costello	A. Kuchin
2009	160	C. Cowick	S. Bocharov
2009	190	B. Peltz	O. Yashin
2009	191	M. Sdao	A. Sergeyev
2008	15	E. Karlsson	D. Klopov
2008	42	P. Wiercoich	K. Petrov
2008	79	Z. Smith	M. Trunyov
2008	109	A. Petersson	N. Moon
2008	119	D. Grant	A. Lazarev
2008	139	M. Borowiecki	M. Thruber
2008	199	E. Sandin	C. Conacher
2007	29	J. O'Brien	B. MacLean
2007	60	R. Bashrikov	S. Korostin
2007	90	L. Caporusso	M. Milyokhin
2007	120	B. Blood	A. Vasilyev

 

[Burkeocet]

They’re currently in the cup final. I responded to a post saying you can’t build anything while botching 10th overall picks. You can.

True but they actually have built something - the senators are still trying and can’t afford to take major risks right now and reach way off the board.

If there was nobody they wanted, they should have traded down. I would have tried to get a goalie if I were them though.

 

[PlayersLtd]

I feel like it should be noted that the model posted on the previous page gave Boucher, at the time of the draft, a 4.10% chance of being a star and a 19.84% chance of being an NHL player.

For reference, if we look at drafts from 2007-2021 (farthest I can go back), we can see average values for each draft position based on the model:

Pick Position	Year Range	Star Prob	NHL Prob
#1	2007-2021	74.62%	96.54%
#5	2007-2021	27.61%	73.54%
#10	2007-2021	22.69%	56.43%
#15	2007-2021	7.18%	42.11%
#20	2007-2021	7.93%	37.02%
#25	2007-2021	5.62%	33.67%
#30	2007-2021	6.13%	23.79%

22.69% chance at drafting a star at 10 yet in the last 15 years the only star drafted was Rantanen. What am I missing?

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Well, this is a hard question to answer for many reasons. First, there is no universal player ranking system. Second, I don't have the computer skills to see margin of error per pick. Lastly, the model goes back to 2007, but even with split data, the model is still able to use information from, say, the 2017 draft to inform projections in the 2007 draft. On the other hand, NHL teams can use stats and eye-test, they can control development, and they can make trades at the draft table. The above makes a straight comparison not exactly fair for either side. With that being said, the model was made before the 2021 draft, so that is new data for the model.

Anyway, the chart below contains the picks the model would have made with Ottawa's picks. I am assuming the model selects the player with the highest star probability. Each user is free to decide how to evaluate the picks. I kept goalies the same.

Year	Pick	OTT Pick	TDH Pick
2021	10	T. Boucher	C. Sillinger
2021	39	Z. Ostapchuk	S. Pastujov
2021	49	B. Roger	M. Knies
2021	74	O. Johnasson	A. Suvorov
2021	123	C. Latimer	C. Kurth
2021	202	C. Romeo	S. Jasecko
2020	3	T. Stutzle	M. Rossi
2020	5	J. Sanderson	A. Lundell
2020	28	R. Grieg	J. Mysak
2020	33	R. Jarventie	S. Halliday
2020	44	T. Kleven	M. Beryozkin
2020	61	E. Sokolov	T. Tullio
2020	71	L. Merilanien	L. Merilainen
2020	155	E. Engstrand	K. Kilkorka
2020	158	P. Daoust	W. Schingoethe
2020	181	C. Reinhardt	L. Morrison
2019	19	L. Thomson	A. Kaliyev
2019	32	S. Pinto	M. Kokkenen
2019	37	M. Sogaard	M. Sogaard
2019	94	V. Lodin	E. Keppen
2019	125	M. Kastelic	M. Gildon
2019	187	M. Guenette	R. Siedem
2018	4	B. Tkachuk	E. Bouchard
2018	26	J. Bernard-Docker	Z. Reszegh
2018	48	J. Tychonick	C. Addison
2018	95	J. Gruden	A. McShane
2018	126	A. Crookshank	E. Sokolov
2018	157	K. Mandolese	K. Mandolese
2018	188	J. Novak	D. Deryabin
2018	194	L. Loheit	N. Dunkley
2017	28	S. Bowers	J. Robertson
2017	47	A. Formenton	M. Shaw
2017	121	D. Batherson	J. Turkulainen
2017	183	J. Hollett	N. Popugayev
2016	11	L. Brown	A. Debrincat
2016	42	J. Dahlen	J. Dahlen
2016	103	T. Burgess	I. Shvyryov
2016	133	M. Lajoie	D. Sokolov
2016	163	M. Nurmi	D. Quenneville
2015	18	T. Chabot	J. Bracco
2015	21	C. White	K. Kaprizov
2015	36	G. Gagne	R. Hintz
2015	48	F. Chlapik	M. Vande Sompel
2015	107	C. Wolanin	K. Pilipenko
2015	109	F. Ahl	D. Salituro
2015	139	C. Jaros	N. Korostelev
2015	199	J. Daccord	J. Daccord
2014	40	A. Englund	B. Point
2014	70	M. Gendron	C. De Leo
2014	100	S. Eiserman	T. Baillie
2014	189	K. Summers	S. Watson
2014	190	F. Perron	V. Tkachyov
2013	17	C. Lazar	A. Lehkonen
2013	78	M. Hogberg	M. Hogberg
2013	102	T. Lindberg	J. Ikonen
2013	108	B. Harpur	L. Johnson
2013	138	V. Dunn	T. Moore
2013	161	C. Leblanc	B. Harms
2013	168	Q. Shore	G. Guertler
2012	15	C. Ceci	T. Hertl
2012	76	C. Driedger	C. Dreidger
2012	82	J. Maidens	N. Prokhorkin
2012	106	T. Boyle	C. Bertschy
2012	136	R. Baillargeon	A. Kadeykin
2012	166	F. Brassard	N. Klyuchnikov
2012	196	M. Wikstrand	A. Cangelosi
2011	6	M. Zibanejad	R. Murphy
2011	21	S. Noesen	N. Kucherov
2011	24	M. Puempel	M. Puempel
2011	61	S. Prince	Z. Arzamastev
2011	96	J. Pageau	J. Gaudreau
2011	126	F. Claesson	S. Ambroz
2011	156	D. Kramer	S. Abramov
2011	171	M. McCormick	S. Salminen
2011	186	J. Fransoo	E. Ageyev
2011	204	R. Dzingel	S. Shmelyov
2010	76	J. Culek	A. Panarin
2010	106	M. Sorenson	M. Kitsyn
2010	178	M. Stone	N. Gusev
2010	196	B. Aneloski	S. Barbashev
2009	9	J. Cowen	R. Ellis
2009	39	J. Silfverberg	A. Avtsin
2009	46	R. Lehner	R. Lehner
2009	100	C. Wideman	D. Sobchenko
2009	130	M. Hoffman	A. Raisov
2009	146	J. Costello	A. Kuchin
2009	160	C. Cowick	S. Bocharov
2009	190	B. Peltz	O. Yashin
2009	191	M. Sdao	A. Sergeyev
2008	15	E. Karlsson	D. Klopov
2008	42	P. Wiercoich	K. Petrov
2008	79	Z. Smith	M. Trunyov
2008	109	A. Petersson	N. Moon
2008	119	D. Grant	A. Lazarev
2008	139	M. Borowiecki	M. Thruber
2008	199	E. Sandin	C. Conacher
2007	29	J. O'Brien	B. MacLean
2007	60	R. Bashrikov	S. Korostin
2007	90	L. Caporusso	M. Milyokhin
2007	120	B. Blood	A. Vasilyev

Moral of the story. Support your picks no matter what outside the first round. Chances are no chart, and no other scout had a better alternative.

 

[Micklebot]

22.69% chance at drafting a star at 10 yet in the last 15 years the only star drafted was Rantanen. What am I missing?

Well, for one thing, 15 years is a pretty small sample.

I mentioned it before but 10 is a weird anomoly in that historically it's done more poorly than picks that follow it. You could throw a dart at McKenzie's 1st round list and get better results than historical 10 OA

I think the % are based on what the model would have chosen, not who actually got chosen.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Pierre McGuire had his paws on this pick

Highly unlikely. This is a Dorion roster building pick. He wanted another very hard to play against animal like Brady in the top 6 and Boucher fit the profile the scouting team was directed to identify. Will he be that guy.. we'll see. He has a lot of development to do and he has time in the OHL and the AHL to get the reps and coaching. I don't see Dorion giving McGuire much and its highly unlikely he gave him a big say on the 10OA pick.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Well, this is a hard question to answer for many reasons. First, there is no universal player ranking system. Second, I don't have the computer skills to see margin of error per pick. Lastly, the model goes back to 2007, but even with split data, the model is still able to use information from, say, the 2017 draft to inform projections in the 2007 draft. On the other hand, NHL teams can use stats and eye-test, they can control development, and they can make trades at the draft table. The above makes a straight comparison not exactly fair for either side. With that being said, the model was made before the 2021 draft, so that is new data for the model.

Anyway, the chart below contains the picks the model would have made with Ottawa's picks. I am assuming the model selects the player with the highest star probability. Each user is free to decide how to evaluate the picks. I kept goalies the same.

Year	Pick	OTT Pick	TDH Pick
2021	10	T. Boucher	C. Sillinger
2021	39	Z. Ostapchuk	S. Pastujov
2021	49	B. Roger	M. Knies
2021	74	O. Johnasson	A. Suvorov
2021	123	C. Latimer	C. Kurth
2021	202	C. Romeo	S. Jasecko
2020	3	T. Stutzle	M. Rossi
2020	5	J. Sanderson	A. Lundell
2020	28	R. Grieg	J. Mysak
2020	33	R. Jarventie	S. Halliday
2020	44	T. Kleven	M. Beryozkin
2020	61	E. Sokolov	T. Tullio
2020	71	L. Merilanien	L. Merilainen
2020	155	E. Engstrand	K. Kilkorka
2020	158	P. Daoust	W. Schingoethe
2020	181	C. Reinhardt	L. Morrison
2019	19	L. Thomson	A. Kaliyev
2019	32	S. Pinto	M. Kokkenen
2019	37	M. Sogaard	M. Sogaard
2019	94	V. Lodin	E. Keppen
2019	125	M. Kastelic	M. Gildon
2019	187	M. Guenette	R. Siedem
2018	4	B. Tkachuk	E. Bouchard
2018	26	J. Bernard-Docker	Z. Reszegh
2018	48	J. Tychonick	C. Addison
2018	95	J. Gruden	A. McShane
2018	126	A. Crookshank	E. Sokolov
2018	157	K. Mandolese	K. Mandolese
2018	188	J. Novak	D. Deryabin
2018	194	L. Loheit	N. Dunkley
2017	28	S. Bowers	J. Robertson
2017	47	A. Formenton	M. Shaw
2017	121	D. Batherson	J. Turkulainen
2017	183	J. Hollett	N. Popugayev
2016	11	L. Brown	A. Debrincat
2016	42	J. Dahlen	J. Dahlen
2016	103	T. Burgess	I. Shvyryov
2016	133	M. Lajoie	D. Sokolov
2016	163	M. Nurmi	D. Quenneville
2015	18	T. Chabot	J. Bracco
2015	21	C. White	K. Kaprizov
2015	36	G. Gagne	R. Hintz
2015	48	F. Chlapik	M. Vande Sompel
2015	107	C. Wolanin	K. Pilipenko
2015	109	F. Ahl	D. Salituro
2015	139	C. Jaros	N. Korostelev
2015	199	J. Daccord	J. Daccord
2014	40	A. Englund	B. Point
2014	70	M. Gendron	C. De Leo
2014	100	S. Eiserman	T. Baillie
2014	189	K. Summers	S. Watson
2014	190	F. Perron	V. Tkachyov
2013	17	C. Lazar	A. Lehkonen
2013	78	M. Hogberg	M. Hogberg
2013	102	T. Lindberg	J. Ikonen
2013	108	B. Harpur	L. Johnson
2013	138	V. Dunn	T. Moore
2013	161	C. Leblanc	B. Harms
2013	168	Q. Shore	G. Guertler
2012	15	C. Ceci	T. Hertl
2012	76	C. Driedger	C. Dreidger
2012	82	J. Maidens	N. Prokhorkin
2012	106	T. Boyle	C. Bertschy
2012	136	R. Baillargeon	A. Kadeykin
2012	166	F. Brassard	N. Klyuchnikov
2012	196	M. Wikstrand	A. Cangelosi
2011	6	M. Zibanejad	R. Murphy
2011	21	S. Noesen	N. Kucherov
2011	24	M. Puempel	M. Puempel
2011	61	S. Prince	Z. Arzamastev
2011	96	J. Pageau	J. Gaudreau
2011	126	F. Claesson	S. Ambroz
2011	156	D. Kramer	S. Abramov
2011	171	M. McCormick	S. Salminen
2011	186	J. Fransoo	E. Ageyev
2011	204	R. Dzingel	S. Shmelyov
2010	76	J. Culek	A. Panarin
2010	106	M. Sorenson	M. Kitsyn
2010	178	M. Stone	N. Gusev
2010	196	B. Aneloski	S. Barbashev
2009	9	J. Cowen	R. Ellis
2009	39	J. Silfverberg	A. Avtsin
2009	46	R. Lehner	R. Lehner
2009	100	C. Wideman	D. Sobchenko
2009	130	M. Hoffman	A. Raisov
2009	146	J. Costello	A. Kuchin
2009	160	C. Cowick	S. Bocharov
2009	190	B. Peltz	O. Yashin
2009	191	M. Sdao	A. Sergeyev
2008	15	E. Karlsson	D. Klopov
2008	42	P. Wiercoich	K. Petrov
2008	79	Z. Smith	M. Trunyov
2008	109	A. Petersson	N. Moon
2008	119	D. Grant	A. Lazarev
2008	139	M. Borowiecki	M. Thruber
2008	199	E. Sandin	C. Conacher
2007	29	J. O'Brien	B. MacLean
2007	60	R. Bashrikov	S. Korostin
2007	90	L. Caporusso	M. Milyokhin
2007	120	B. Blood	A. Vasilyev

Looks to me like that model is dynamite at picking forwards. We would have Point, Kucherov, Kaspirov, Gaudreau, Hertl, Panarin, Hintz, Robertson, Debrincat, Lundell, etc..

Not so good at picking D though. I see only Bouchard (over Tkachuk, which is a hard no for me) and Ryan Ellis.

Seems like a very good way to find some scoring talent but does not provide a well-balanced appraoch to identifying all the roles needed for a winning team.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Well, this is a hard question to answer for many reasons. First, there is no universal player ranking system. Second, I don't have the computer skills to see margin of error per pick. Lastly, the model goes back to 2007, but even with split data, the model is still able to use information from, say, the 2017 draft to inform projections in the 2007 draft. On the other hand, NHL teams can use stats and eye-test, they can control development, and they can make trades at the draft table. The above makes a straight comparison not exactly fair for either side. With that being said, the model was made before the 2021 draft, so that is new data for the model.

Anyway, the chart below contains the picks the model would have made with Ottawa's picks. I am assuming the model selects the player with the highest star probability. Each user is free to decide how to evaluate the picks. I kept goalies the same.

Year	Pick	OTT Pick	TDH Pick
2021	10	T. Boucher	C. Sillinger
2021	39	Z. Ostapchuk	S. Pastujov
2021	49	B. Roger	M. Knies
2021	74	O. Johnasson	A. Suvorov
2021	123	C. Latimer	C. Kurth
2021	202	C. Romeo	S. Jasecko
2020	3	T. Stutzle	M. Rossi
2020	5	J. Sanderson	A. Lundell
2020	28	R. Grieg	J. Mysak
2020	33	R. Jarventie	S. Halliday
2020	44	T. Kleven	M. Beryozkin
2020	61	E. Sokolov	T. Tullio
2020	71	L. Merilanien	L. Merilainen
2020	155	E. Engstrand	K. Kilkorka
2020	158	P. Daoust	W. Schingoethe
2020	181	C. Reinhardt	L. Morrison
2019	19	L. Thomson	A. Kaliyev
2019	32	S. Pinto	M. Kokkenen
2019	37	M. Sogaard	M. Sogaard
2019	94	V. Lodin	E. Keppen
2019	125	M. Kastelic	M. Gildon
2019	187	M. Guenette	R. Siedem
2018	4	B. Tkachuk	E. Bouchard
2018	26	J. Bernard-Docker	Z. Reszegh
2018	48	J. Tychonick	C. Addison
2018	95	J. Gruden	A. McShane
2018	126	A. Crookshank	E. Sokolov
2018	157	K. Mandolese	K. Mandolese
2018	188	J. Novak	D. Deryabin
2018	194	L. Loheit	N. Dunkley
2017	28	S. Bowers	J. Robertson
2017	47	A. Formenton	M. Shaw
2017	121	D. Batherson	J. Turkulainen
2017	183	J. Hollett	N. Popugayev
2016	11	L. Brown	A. Debrincat
2016	42	J. Dahlen	J. Dahlen
2016	103	T. Burgess	I. Shvyryov
2016	133	M. Lajoie	D. Sokolov
2016	163	M. Nurmi	D. Quenneville
2015	18	T. Chabot	J. Bracco
2015	21	C. White	K. Kaprizov
2015	36	G. Gagne	R. Hintz
2015	48	F. Chlapik	M. Vande Sompel
2015	107	C. Wolanin	K. Pilipenko
2015	109	F. Ahl	D. Salituro
2015	139	C. Jaros	N. Korostelev
2015	199	J. Daccord	J. Daccord
2014	40	A. Englund	B. Point
2014	70	M. Gendron	C. De Leo
2014	100	S. Eiserman	T. Baillie
2014	189	K. Summers	S. Watson
2014	190	F. Perron	V. Tkachyov
2013	17	C. Lazar	A. Lehkonen
2013	78	M. Hogberg	M. Hogberg
2013	102	T. Lindberg	J. Ikonen
2013	108	B. Harpur	L. Johnson
2013	138	V. Dunn	T. Moore
2013	161	C. Leblanc	B. Harms
2013	168	Q. Shore	G. Guertler
2012	15	C. Ceci	T. Hertl
2012	76	C. Driedger	C. Dreidger
2012	82	J. Maidens	N. Prokhorkin
2012	106	T. Boyle	C. Bertschy
2012	136	R. Baillargeon	A. Kadeykin
2012	166	F. Brassard	N. Klyuchnikov
2012	196	M. Wikstrand	A. Cangelosi
2011	6	M. Zibanejad	R. Murphy
2011	21	S. Noesen	N. Kucherov
2011	24	M. Puempel	M. Puempel
2011	61	S. Prince	Z. Arzamastev
2011	96	J. Pageau	J. Gaudreau
2011	126	F. Claesson	S. Ambroz
2011	156	D. Kramer	S. Abramov
2011	171	M. McCormick	S. Salminen
2011	186	J. Fransoo	E. Ageyev
2011	204	R. Dzingel	S. Shmelyov
2010	76	J. Culek	A. Panarin
2010	106	M. Sorenson	M. Kitsyn
2010	178	M. Stone	N. Gusev
2010	196	B. Aneloski	S. Barbashev
2009	9	J. Cowen	R. Ellis
2009	39	J. Silfverberg	A. Avtsin
2009	46	R. Lehner	R. Lehner
2009	100	C. Wideman	D. Sobchenko
2009	130	M. Hoffman	A. Raisov
2009	146	J. Costello	A. Kuchin
2009	160	C. Cowick	S. Bocharov
2009	190	B. Peltz	O. Yashin
2009	191	M. Sdao	A. Sergeyev
2008	15	E. Karlsson	D. Klopov
2008	42	P. Wiercoich	K. Petrov
2008	79	Z. Smith	M. Trunyov
2008	109	A. Petersson	N. Moon
2008	119	D. Grant	A. Lazarev
2008	139	M. Borowiecki	M. Thruber
2008	199	E. Sandin	C. Conacher
2007	29	J. O'Brien	B. MacLean
2007	60	R. Bashrikov	S. Korostin
2007	90	L. Caporusso	M. Milyokhin
2007	120	B. Blood	A. Vasilyev

Oof some poor choices in the model there. Some posters mentioned some, Klovov or Karlsson.

 

[OD99]

Looks to me like that model is dynamite at picking forwards. We would have Point, Kucherov, Kaspirov, Gaudreau, Hertl, Panarin, Hintz, Robertson, Debrincat, Lundell, etc..

Not so good at picking D though. I see only Bouchard (over Tkachuk, which is a hard no for me) and Ryan Ellis.

Seems like a very good way to find some scoring talent but does not provide a well-balanced appraoch to identifying all the roles needed for a winning team.

With talent like that you can fill in the blanks pretty easily either through UFA or trade.

 

[Golden_Jet]

With talent like that you can fill in the blanks pretty easily either through UFA or trade.

Or you could also end up with the bad forwards in the list.