Blue Jays Discussion: Turn out the lights, the season's over.

Discussion in 'Toronto Maple Leafs' started by The Nemesis, Sep 3, 2019.

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  1. Deebo

    Deebo Registered User

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    Do teams typically have anything left from a trade like that 10 years later?
     
  2. Lightsol

    Lightsol Registered User

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    Besides, if you want to whine about not having any pieces left from a trade, this ain't the one I'd be whining about. What do we have left from the "big trade with Miami" that supposedly made the Blue Jays a contender that year?
     
  3. The Nemesis

    The Nemesis Semper Tyrannus

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    Not the same sport, but the Sharks have Joe Thornton, Brent Burns, and Erik Karlsson as a direct result of trading the 2nd overall pick in the Alex Daigle draft in 92 (it was 92, right?)
     
  4. TF97

    TF97 RIP Doc

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    Today also marks 2 years since Halladay passed away. Kind of a poetic ending.
     
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  5. phillipmike

    phillipmike Registered User

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    Typical, no. Jays only have 2 currently for 10 years ago; Marcum to Lawrie to Donaldson to Merryweather and Bell/Godfrey to Scutaro to Sanchez (compensation pick for losing Scutaro) to Fisher.

    Devon Travis was outrighted off of the 40-man roster and that breaks the Blue Jays’ last link to Roy Halladay

    Not sure if it was directed at me but i wasnt whining. Just stating a fact with no personal opinions in the post.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2019
  6. Diamond Joe Quimby

    Diamond Joe Quimby A$AP Joffrey

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    Sorry in advance for the long post.

    Updated off-season plan if I was at the helm. Using Steamer 2020:

    1) Bo (SS) R (3.2 fWAR, 106 wRC+)
    2) Biggio (2B) L [1B\LF\DH] (2.2 fWAR, 103 wRC+)
    3) Gurriel Jr. (LF) R [CF*\RF] (1.5 fWAR, 102 wRC+)
    4) Moustakas (1B) L [3B\2B\DH] (2.8 fWAR, 110 wRC+)
    5) Vlad Jr. (3B) R [1B\DH] (3.4 fWAR, 127 wRC+)
    6) Dickerson (DH) L [LF\RF] (1.4 fWAR, 105 wRC+)
    7) Grichuk (RF) R [CF\LF] (1.6 fWAR, 104 wRC+)
    8) Jansen\McGuire (C) R\L (2.0 fWAR, 99 wRC+ / 1.5 fWAR, 81 wRC+)
    9) Teoscar (CF) R [RF\LF\DH] (0.2 fWAR, 93 wRC+)

    Bench: Drury, Mckinney\Fisher, Maile

    With the expansion of the rosters, I like having three catchers with Danny getting some DH AB’s. Moustakas signed to play the Muncy-LAD role, Dickerson to be a DH\corner outfielder.

    There’s no CF’s on the market, though I’ve mentioned Ka’ai Tom and DJ Peters in the rule-5 draft. Also like Andrew Toles as a MLFA.

    The staff is...not good and requires extensive surgery:

    1) Wheeler (191 IP, 3.1 fWAR)
    2) Odorizzi (167 IP, 2.5 fWAR)
    3) Thornton (162 IP, 1.4 fWAR)
    4) Borucki (136 IP, 0.9 fWAR)
    5) Anderson (173 IP, 0.8 fWAR)

    Other Internal Options: Shoemaker* (149 IP, 1.4 fWAR), Kay (110 IP, 0.2 fWAR)

    Other external options: Ryu (2.9 fWAR), Gibson (2.9 fWAR), Keuchel (2.7 fWAR)

    Bullpen: Giles (11.38 K/9, 1.0 fWAR)…

    External Options: W. Smith (11.37 K/9, 0.7 fWAR), Diekman (11.37 K/9, 0.8 fWAR), Pomeranz (11.01 K/9, 0.6 fWAR)

    Smith will go to a contender, and likely Pomeranz as well. Diekman is a good get and I believe is attainable. If you’re spending on the rotation (which you essentially have to) you’re likely cobbling together some Daniel Hudson’s, which I support completely.

    Summary of moves:
    - Moustakas: 2 years @ $16MM
    - Dickerson: 1 year @ $8MM
    - Wheeler: 4 years @ $17MM
    - Odorizzi: 3 years @ $13MM
    - Diekman: 1 year @ $5MM
    - Morrow: 1 year (minor league deal)
    - Holland: 1 year (minor league deal)
    - Nate Jones: 1 year (minor league deal)
     
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  7. Anthrax442

    Anthrax442 Registered User

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  8. canucksfan

    canucksfan Registered User

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  9. Kurtz

    Kurtz Registered User

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    I heard that Travis was one of the nicest guys in the org, and this affirms it. What a class act, hope that he can have a healthy rest of his career.
     
  10. dredeye

    dredeye BJ Elitist/Hipster

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    There was never anything not to like about the guy. Just couldn’t stay healthy. Hopefully, he can find a home and a little bit of his old self
     
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  11. Anthrax442

    Anthrax442 Registered User

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    When healthy he was productive. Unfortunately for him, there are other players in the organizations that surpassed him on the depth chart. Maybe he goes to another place and finds it again.
     
  12. phillipmike

    phillipmike Registered User

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    Travis only had 1245 PAs with the Jays and he was the 6th best 2B in Jays history according to fWAR; Toronto Blue Jays Leaderboards » 2019 » Second Basemen » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

    Note: Also bodes well for us that Biggio is 7th after only 430 PAs but doesnt bode well for the org as a whole that since 1977 our 7th best 2B in franchise history is someone with only 430 PAs. But glass half full because Biggio could easily be number 2 on this list in a few years.

    If you combine Travis' 2015 and 2016 you get 163 games played and 4.7 fWAR for a rookies "first full season", that is incredible and would have been only behind some guy named Roberto Alomar. Jays had a building block on their hands with Travis if he didnt get hurt... its unfortunate because had he been healthy, his career would have taken off and been one of the best 2B in the game today.

    Toronto Blue Jays Leaderboards » 2019 » Second Basemen » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

    Best of luck Devon!
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2019
  13. phillipmike

    phillipmike Registered User

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    Really hope Cherington doesnt go anywhere. Would love to have him as our GM or a back up plan in case Shapiro goes anywhere. Pirates are also considering LaCava.

    Shapiro, Cherington and LaCava are good guys to have in the org.
     
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  14. phillipmike

    phillipmike Registered User

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    End of the Pompey era too.
     
  15. phillipmike

    phillipmike Registered User

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    MLB hot stove: Top 10 offseason trade candidates, including Francisco Lindor and two former MVPs

    MLB hot stove: One under-the-radar free agent for each team to target this offseason

     
  16. aingefan

    aingefan Registered User

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    Totally forgot about those two. Best wishes, guys both have talent and could make 4th of’ers somewhere. Best wishes to Travis, too. Shame.
    Looking forward to dominoes starting to fall.
    Any whispers leaking out about Jays contact with FA’s?
     
  17. phillipmike

    phillipmike Registered User

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    AL East Notes: McNeil, Rays, Didi, Shapiro

     
  18. aingefan

    aingefan Registered User

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  19. dredeye

    dredeye BJ Elitist/Hipster

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    I feel like he's got Marlin written all over him
     
  20. JustAShadow

    JustAShadow non player character

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    Pompey's Blue Jays' career has gone a similar route to that of another local, Rob Ducey. Prospects fail all of the time but it seems amplified when it's a promising local talent.

    He probably had the best first 162 MLB games for a 2B in Blue Jays' history. It's kind of obvious that he's going to do well outside the game when his career is over.
     
  21. Rysto

    Rysto Registered User

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    Am I misunderstanding wRC+ or is Steamer predicting that we'll have a very average offense outside of Vlad?
     
  22. MS

    MS 1%er

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    5.3 WAR in his first 162 games. Guy was going to be an impact player if his body held up.
     
  23. The Nemesis

    The Nemesis Semper Tyrannus

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    They really didn't. They were hamstrung by the fact that Doc basically dictated he was going to Philly, so the Phillies were under no obligation to have to bid any higher than they felt comfortable doing. ahead of the trade, these were the prospect rankings for those players:

    John Sickels of Minor League Ball (this is his list for the 2009 season published in 2008. His list for the off-season of the trade was done after the trade was made)
    Taylor: 2nd
    d'Arnaud: 3rd
    Drabek: 11th (with a disclaimer about his pedigree creating the possibility that he could rise)

    Also for fun, notice JA Happ in there at #5

    Baseball America 2010 (courtesy of The Baseball Cube)
    Drabek: 2nd (25th in MLB)
    Taylor: 3rd (29th in MLB)
    d'Arnaud: 4th (81st in MLB)

    Baseball Prospectus
    Taylor: 2nd (called a 4-star prospect)
    Drabek: 3rd (4-star prospect)
    d'Arnaud: 4th (3-star prospect)

    in their write-ups below, Taylor is given the ceiling of an everyday RF with an all-around bat and a floor of being a Quad-A player (which might have even been a touch generous), Drabek was considered to be a Scott Kazmir type at best and a non-starter at worst (that was even more generous) d'Arnaud was considered to be at best an above-average catcher on both sides of the plate and at worst a d-first backup whose unimpressive power would make him average-at-best overall. (this might've ended up the most correct on the low-end as his career seems to have been passable D and disappointing to good-for-a-catcher offence)

    So looking at it in the context of the time, the Jays got a trio of top 10 (and in most cases top 5) Phillies system guys who were by at least one measure, all also top 100 MLB prospects too.

    The failure of this trade has as much to do with how much of a crapshoot prospects are. The jays rolled the dice on 3 high-level prospects in the Phillies system, each of which came with some manner of pedigree that would suggest potential impact futures (Drabek's draft status and lineage, Taylor's breakout low-minors performance, d'Arnaud's high upside and positional-value-added potential) and all 3 struck out.

    And even if we suggest that the Jays just choked it and picked the wrong prospects to bet on in the Philly system, the rest of their BA top 10 from that off-season were:

    1) Domonic Brown: The Phils' top prospect and seemingly off the table from the get-go, he floundered his way to a disappointingly mediocre career that included a 2016 stop in Buffalo before spending the last several years in Mexico

    5) Trevor May: A bust as a starter, he's spent most of the last 4 years as a good-but-not-great member of the Twins bullpen, putting up solid numbers but never getting the call to pick up more than a couple of saves (and I'm not saying this to validate closer fetishizing, just that the reality of that behaviour means that most top-shelf relievers find their way into that role, so it becomes a good separator for highly-regarded guys vs less-regarded faceless middle relief pitchers)

    6) Anthony Gose: Toronto was allegedly rebuffed in their attempts to have Gose included as a member of the Halladay package (with no indication given as to whom it would've been in place of) but got their man during the next season by flipping Brett Wallace (in turn acquired from Oakland for Michael Taylor not long after the Doc Deal) to the Astros after Gose ended up there for Roy Oswalt (confused yet? :laugh:) We all know what happened here. All the speed in the world and an absolute cannon of an arm, but an over-aggressive, strikeout-heavy approach at the plate and he was left to try (and mostly fail) to reinvent himself as a fireballing reliever, currently languishing at AA in the Cleveland system where he can't strike guys out but walks everybody

    7) Sebastian Valle: Once though to be a promising catching prospect, it was quickly discovered that he couldn't even hit low minors pitching, let alone have a chance against guys in the big leagues. Iffy defence also prevented him from having something to fall back on and after only flashing the most meager of results in a couple of brief AAA stints he bounced between 3 organizations in like 2 and a half years before now residing in Mexico (where his apparent unimpressiveness continues to this day)

    8) Jarred Cosart: dealt to Houston in 2011 as the price for deadline acquisition Hunter Pence, Cosart pitched to a shiny mirage of a 1.95 ERA in 10 2013 starts before mostly crashing back to earth as an OK 4/5 starter in 2014, at which point he publicly bashed the Astros management group, leading to them basically banishing him to Miami as part of a trade for Jake Marisnick and Colin Moran. He was good for 10 starts in that first partial season as a Marlin before he sucked in 2015 and 2016 until the Marlins traded him in the shotgun of youngsters (featuring Canada's own Josh Naylor) for Andrew Cashner. He then sucked the rest of the year for the Padres, sucked in 24 innings in 2017, took his release upon being outrighted off the 40-man, and hasn't been seen since.

    9) Antonion Bastardo: a great name and possibly the 2nd most successful guy on this list, having turned out 6 or 7 very solid seasons as a non-closer reliever with the Phillies before he appears to have hit the reliever wall in a short stint with Pittsburgh in 2017 where he was beyond brutal. And hasn't been seen since. So really, complimenting his success seems like kind of a backhanded bit of praise.

    10) Domingo Santana: Also part of the Hunter Penc acquisition with Jarred Cosart, Santana looks like the clear winner of "who had the best career to-date of this prospect pool" race. He's spent the last 5 years as a somewhat above average offensive OF who plays varying degrees of questionable defence. He had a breakout 2017 with the Brewers but has since regressed back more in line with his norms before last year putting up pretty good numbers (770 OPS, 21 HR, horrifying 32% k-rate) with the Mariners while playing a very nice 121 games (and the absolute worst defensive rating of his career).

    So the Jays whiffed on the prospects they took from the Phillies, but really if they had taken literally anything else from the presumptive top 10 of their system at that point the best they could've hoped for was a solid non-closer reliever and a guy who may or may not be Teoscar Hernandez in disguise.

    As much as we talk about relief pitchers being witchcraft or voodoo, baseball prospects are not far behind. I'll bet for every amazing haul a team's gotten in flipping an established star for prospects, you can find 3-5 hilariously bad end results where all the shiny new toys ended up being broken or cheap knockoffs (or whatever else you can use to keep this metaphor going)

    I'm not absolving Anthopoulos from all blame for the fact that the Doc deal failed. He bears the brunt of the fact that he flipped the chain of pieces from that trade and its follow-ups multiple times and basically every single one of the guys who passed through the org in that line has been an abject failure of an MLB player. But if we're just looking at the Doc Deal itself as a move made in the context of December 2009 and the deal that was made between Philadelphia and Toronto, he probably did the best he could've given the situation and given the belief at that time of what the prospects acquired were.

    In fact, here's a Wilner piece from 4 years ago in which he looks at several similar ace-pitcher-for-prospect trades and their end results. the long-and-short of it?

    Feb 2008: Minnesota trades Johan Santana to the Mets. In hindsight their return (Phil Humber, Carlos Gomez, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey) was mostly crap as the only good player in that mix (Gomez) they traded in a string of deals that netted them a guy they waived and another that never played for them.

    Jul 2008: Cleveland trades CC Sabathia to Milwaukee for a bunch of eventual garbage (centerpiece Matt LaPorta was an atomic bomb of a failure) and a PTBNL. This is one of those rare times you can say that a PTBNL turned out to be worthwhile as it was Michael Brantley, who has alternated bursts of stardom with being hurt a lot.

    Jul 2010: Houston trades Roy Oswalt to Philly. As noted before, the return included Anthony Gose along with JA Happ and Jonathan Villar. They turned Gose into Brett Wallace, who sucked. Happ was later traded to the Jays in 2012 for a mostly crap return where the most notable pieces still in the bigs are Asher Wojciechowski and Joe Musgrove. Villar is an occasionally good middle infielder who also sucks sometimes.

    Dec 2010:
    Kansas City trades Zack Greinki to Milwaukee for an actually good haul that was a decent part of them winning the World Series, including Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi (who was flipped to Tampa for James Shields and Wade Davis) and Jeremy Jeffress.

    3 times in a year: Cliff lee was traded. In order 1) from Cleveland to Philly for Carlos Carrasco and junk 2) from Philly to Seattle for disappointing Canadians Phil Aumont and Tyson Gilles along with JC Ramirez, all of whom floundered. 3) from Seattle to Texas for Justin Smoak (who, at the time, sucked), mediocre relievers, and junk.

    The moral of the story is: big trades for prospects are basically russian roulette. Of the 7 other trades I listed above, only one of them really amounted to anything for the team that got the prospects. The others were somewhere between disappointing and complete failure. So in the end the Jays aren't alone in seeing their Halladay return vaporize to no great effect.
     
  24. canucksfan

    canucksfan Registered User

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  25. dredeye

    dredeye BJ Elitist/Hipster

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    Those numbers on Luciano are not impressive in the limited innings. High walk rate and low k rate.
     
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