Blue Jays Discussion: Turn out the lights, the season's over.

[aingefan]

What is a Qualifying Offer? | Glossary

Thx

 

[phillipmike]

What scouts and Anthony Alford see in Alford

 

[as Pure as Evil]

i know cole and stras are a pipe dream but what about Ryu and Bumgarner .

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

i know cole and stras are a pipe dream but what about Ryu and Bumgarner .

Wheeler and Odorizzi over Ryu and Bumgarner. Trust me.

I've warmed to the idea of Moustakas (if he's left out in the cold again) for both the left handed bat and signal to Vlad to get his ass in shape. Dickerson is a no-brainer, so I wont waste time bringing it up again.

 

[as Pure as Evil]

Wheeler and Odorizzi over Ryu and Bumgarner. Trust me.

I've warmed to the idea of Moustakas (if he's left out in the cold again) for both the left handed bat and signal to Vlad to get his ass in shape. Dickerson is a no-brainer, so I wont waste time bringing it up again.

yeah I just remember this year ryu was damn near godly . I also like corey Dickerson for a long time. ever since he was raking with the rockies. to bad we couldn't have gotten him a couple years ago when the rays were pretty much given him

 

[phillipmike]

Porcello and Gardner would be interesting on 1 year deals.

Gardner likely doesn’t touch the Jays but he is a left handed bat with good CF defense who can lead off with power.

Porcello is a former TORP with AL East experience and a Cherington guy.

Wacha intriguing too. Same age as Stroman with some success behind him.

 

[The Nemesis]

I don't think I consider Rick Porcello interesting in the least. He's vastly overrated on the back of win totals and his flukey Cy Young (which was based on win totals) and he mostly only ever puts up mediocre #3/#4 numbers until last year when his value cratered hard.

Unless you think 2019 was a freak dip, he seems like a prime candidate to get overpaid and deliver bland results.

 

[TF97]

I too would stay away from Porcello, he has always been overrated and both his sinker and slider have really started to flatten out and it has no doubt contributed to his growing home run issue. I would have no issue losing a draft pick in order to get Odorizzi and/or Wheeler. I feel that they both have room to grow, especially Wheeler, and both of them at least have numbers that are both still positive, if not improving. However, I would also understand if the front office does not want to go after higher-end arms this offseason. In that case, I will gladly take one slightly used Homer Bailey as a holdover until arms like Bauer, Ray, Paxton, Minor, etc. are free agents next offseason.

 

[ryno23]

Wheeler and Odorizzi over Ryu and Bumgarner. Trust me.

I've warmed to the idea of Moustakas (if he's left out in the cold again) for both the left handed bat and signal to Vlad to get his ass in shape. Dickerson is a no-brainer, so I wont waste time bringing it up again.

I don't think the Jays can be picky at this point. Any combo of the 4 would work well. If it was Ryu and Bumgarner they still represent better option that what they have internally. Payroll will not be a pressure point for the team as they can afford to add almost 100 million if Rogers was willing to do so (which I doubt they will). You can also walk away from Drury and Law which they should and add another $4 million.

I like 2 out of any of those 4 to front a rotation and bring some veteran experience to the young pitchers not only during the season but during spring training when they get to interact with the young stud pitching developing in the minors. Even if you went 3 years instead of 4 and put the salary into 3 instead of 4 it can be done.

I do agree Diamond that Moose would be a good get to man 3rd and bring a lefty bat into the fold. I don't think Vlad will ever be a good enough 3b and they should get him over to 1b and fill that hole.

You bring in 2 starters of the above, Moustakas or a quality 3b and then hopefully and trade a one of their surplus guys like Fisher, Hernandez, Drury to find a D 1st CF who can lead off. Sorry Dickerson as well inf the fold, so moving Hernandez, Fisher or Grichuk would be ideal

If that wish list come to fruition this team could compete for a wild card spot or worse case be competitive with meaningful games late in Sept which would bring the casual fans back to the park.

Rogers needs to spend money to bring the fans back to the park vs trying to get cheaper and save money that way due to low attendance. We know how the Toronto sport fans jump on bandwagons when the team does well especially the Jays.

 

[phillipmike]

I don't think I consider Rick Porcello interesting in the least. He's vastly overrated on the back of win totals and his flukey Cy Young (which was based on win totals) and he mostly only ever puts up mediocre #3/#4 numbers until last year when his value cratered hard.

Unless you think 2019 was a freak dip, he seems like a prime candidate to get overpaid and deliver bland results.

No denying he didnt deserve the Cy Young imo.

I too would stay away from Porcello, he has always been overrated and both his sinker and slider have really started to flatten out and it has no doubt contributed to his growing home run issue. I would have no issue losing a draft pick in order to get Odorizzi and/or Wheeler. I feel that they both have room to grow, especially Wheeler, and both of them at least have numbers that are both still positive, if not improving. However, I would also understand if the front office does not want to go after higher-end arms this offseason. In that case, I will gladly take one slightly used Homer Bailey as a holdover until arms like Bauer, Ray, Paxton, Minor, etc. are free agents next offseason.

Anything more than a 1 year deal for Porcello would be a mistake. But im intrigued.
-recently has had a better FIP than his ERA
-was 12th in soft contact last season (minimum 100 innings)
-20th in hard contact last season (minimum 100 innings)
-Fastball is still a plus pitch but randomly his slider fell off a cliff last year; id bet on it coming back on a 1 year deal
-AL East experience
-Porcello has been around his average at 92 mph
-pretty durable (minimum 32 starters in each of the last 4 seasons with 160-170 innings since coming into the league)
-his K/BB last season was his worst since coming over to the AL East at 3.18 which is better than Odorizzi' (2.77) and Wheeler's (2.69) career numbers. Even pitching in inferior divisions/conferences last season, Odorizzi's (3.36) and Wheeler's (3.90), wasnt A LOT better than Porcello...

-There would be transition for Wheeler coming to the AL and of all places the AL East.
-Odorizzi has already been in the AL East with his best season according to fWAR were 2.8, 1.8 and 1.8 where Porcello's worst in the AL East was 1.7 fWAR
-Wheeler and Odorizzi might seem like better bets with more potential but Wheeler is only 17 months younger and Odorizzi is only 15 months younger... that being said Porcello intrigues me more on a 1 year deal than giving Wheeler 4-5 years and/or Odorizzi 3-4 years AND giving up a draft pick plus international spending money

Dont get me wrong, i like Wheeler and Odorizzi but i just dont like what we would lose and what type of contract we would have to give them.

 

[TF97]

No denying he didnt deserve the Cy Young imo.



Anything more than a 1 year deal for Porcello would be a mistake. But im intrigued.
-recently has had a better FIP than his ERA
-was 12th in soft contact last season (minimum 100 innings)
-20th in hard contact last season (minimum 100 innings)
-Fastball is still a plus pitch but randomly his slider fell off a cliff last year; id bet on it coming back on a 1 year deal
-AL East experience
-Porcello has been around his average at 92 mph
-pretty durable (minimum 32 starters in each of the last 4 seasons with 160-170 innings since coming into the league)
-his K/BB last season was his worst since coming over to the AL East at 3.18 which is better than Odorizzi' (2.77) and Wheeler's (2.69) career numbers. Even pitching in inferior divisions/conferences last season, Odorizzi's (3.36) and Wheeler's (3.90), wasnt A LOT better than Porcello...

-There would be transition for Wheeler coming to the AL and of all places the AL East.
-Odorizzi has already been in the AL East with his best season according to fWAR were 2.8, 1.8 and 1.8 where Porcello's worst in the AL East was 1.7 fWAR
-Wheeler and Odorizzi might seem like better bets with more potential but Wheeler is only 17 months younger and Odorizzi is only 15 months younger... that being said Porcello intrigues me more on a 1 year deal than giving Wheeler 4-5 years and/or Odorizzi 3-4 years AND giving up a draft pick plus international spending money

Dont get me wrong, i like Wheeler and Odorizzi but i just dont like what we would lose and what type of contract we would have to give them.

I hear you on Porcello, I would definitely give him a 1 year deal to eat some innings and possibly fetch a return at the deadline. I think he could benefit from a slight retool of his approach/arsenal. However, I do not think that Porcello will sign for just a 1 year deal, I see him getting something closer to the Mike Minor/Lance Lynn contracts. I think his past success and ability to eat innings will earn him a multiyear deal from a team who feels like they can fix him. However, I would not be comfortable being that team to take that risk on him. I do not anticipate him being a sort-of pleasant surprise in the way that Minor and Lynn were. Hence why I would rather go after one of the QO'd arms or Homer Bailey if we are strictly searching for a 1 year deal pitcher.

 

[phillipmike]

I hear you on Porcello, I would definitely give him a 1 year deal to eat some innings and possibly fetch a return at the deadline. I think he could benefit from a slight retool of his approach/arsenal. However, I do not think that Porcello will sign for just a 1 year deal, I see him getting something closer to the Mike Minor/Lance Lynn contracts. I think his past success and ability to eat innings will earn him a multiyear deal from a team who feels like they can fix him. However, I would not be comfortable being that team to take that risk on him. I do not anticipate him being a sort-of pleasant surprise in the way that Minor and Lynn were. Hence why I would rather go after one of the QO'd arms or Homer Bailey if we are strictly searching for a 1 year deal pitcher.

Yeah, if he wants more than 1 year then count me out. Id give him a 1 plus a team option with a decent buyout if thats what it took but not 2 guaranteed years.

For me im all for adding 1 dependable arm. I was looking at our arms that we have and its a long list, last thing we want to do i block some of our prospects.

Have Anderson, Shoemaker, Thornton, Borucki and Waguespack. I see room for one more arm, i guess you can go 2 if you are getting a top end guy. But we also have Kay, Pearson and Zeuch waiting in the wings. With other lesser guys. So i can see 1 more dependable arm and maybe a wildcard who you know likely cant pitch a full season like a Wacha or a Salzar (Cleveland connection).

Hopefully by the end of the season we are contending or we trade our trade chips and end the season with Pearson, Thornton, Kay, Borucki and Waguespack/Zeuch in the rotation.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[ryno23]

Yeah, if he wants more than 1 year then count me out. Id give him a 1 plus a team option with a decent buyout if thats what it took but not 2 guaranteed years.

For me im all for adding 1 dependable arm. I was looking at our arms that we have and its a long list, last thing we want to do i block some of our prospects.

Have Anderson, Shoemaker, Thornton, Borucki and Waguespack. I see room for one more arm, i guess you can go 2 if you are getting a top end guy. But we also have Kay, Pearson and Zeuch waiting in the wings. With other lesser guys. So i can see 1 more dependable arm and maybe a wildcard who you know likely cant pitch a full season like a Wacha or a Salzar (Cleveland connection).

Hopefully by the end of the season we are contending or we trade our trade chips and end the season with Pearson, Thornton, Kay, Borucki and Waguespack/Zeuch in the rotation.

Thornton, Borucki, Waguespack are just #5 on any other team or probably pen arms. If this was a contending team none of those guys would be in a playoff rotation. I think sometimes fans get attached to guys and think they are more than they are because that is all the team has.

It was like when the Leafs had Matt Stajan as their 1C he wasn't that at all but was in Toronto cause lack of options. You had Madbum, RYU, Ordorizzi, Wheeler and none of the above mentioned guys are starting at the MLB level probably either pen guys or AAA guys.

Anytime you can add a more talented guy then you do it.

If any of those guys you sign blocks a prospect from coming up that means the current guy is performing well and that is not the worse case in the world. I rather not keep the scrubs in place cause you don't want to block prospects just counterproductive to winning at the MLB level. Force your way on the team and those players in current spots will be moved.

 

[canucksfan]

Thornton, Borucki, Waguespack are just #5 on any other team or probably pen arms. If this was a contending team none of those guys would be in a playoff rotation. I think sometimes fans get attached to guys and think they are more than they are because that is all the team has.

It was like when the Leafs had Matt Stajan as their 1C he wasn't that at all but was in Toronto cause lack of options. You had Madbum, RYU, Ordorizzi, Wheeler and none of the above mentioned guys are starting at the MLB level probably either pen guys or AAA guys.

Anytime you can add a more talented guy then you do it.

If any of those guys you sign blocks a prospect from coming up that means the current guy is performing well and that is not the worse case in the world. I rather not keep the scrubs in place cause you don't want to block prospects just counterproductive to winning at the MLB level. Force your way on the team and those players in current spots will be moved.

I disagree about Borucki. He could turn into a decent 3/4 starter but injuries are a concern. In 2018, if he played a full season he would have been a 3.0 WAR pitcher.

 

[Discoverer]

I disagree about Borucki. He could turn into a decent 3/4 starter but injuries are a concern. In 2018, if he played a full season he would have been a 3.0 WAR pitcher.

Thornton also had 1.9 fWAR in 154 innings as a 25-year-old rookie. There's some upside with all of these guys.

 

[phillipmike]

Thornton, Borucki, Waguespack are just #5 on any other team or probably pen arms. If this was a contending team none of those guys would be in a playoff rotation. I think sometimes fans get attached to guys and think they are more than they are because that is all the team has.

It was like when the Leafs had Matt Stajan as their 1C he wasn't that at all but was in Toronto cause lack of options. You had Madbum, RYU, Ordorizzi, Wheeler and none of the above mentioned guys are starting at the MLB level probably either pen guys or AAA guys.

Anytime you can add a more talented guy then you do it.

If any of those guys you sign blocks a prospect from coming up that means the current guy is performing well and that is not the worse case in the world. I rather not keep the scrubs in place cause you don't want to block prospects just counterproductive to winning at the MLB level. Force your way on the team and those players in current spots will be moved.

Sure that works in theory but not really in practice. You got to give players playing time to see what they can bring so you can determine if you have a long term piece to avoid free agency... it’s the whole point of rebuilding. Not saying give jobs to the undeserving but there are names listed on the pitching side that proved they are deserving of MLB opportunity which comes with a good amount of playing time.

It’s why we are sitting here today knowing we don’t need to fill LF or 2B. No one thought Biggio and Gurriel would be this good this early on at their respective positions but they did because we had the spots open and available for them to play and play through the pains. Biggio was struggling to start the season but adapted and went off. Both players were on pace for 3.5-4 fWAR seasons. I don’t think anyone expected Biggio to lead the Jays in fWAR at the end of the season.

To be honest I didn’t have much hope Waguespack or Zeuch would make the majors nor Kay be anything more than depth but in their brief stints last season, they proved to me they deserve a shot and they need the opportunity to thrive.

Unless we are talking Cole or Strasburg then I only have room for 1 more pitcher in the rotation because I want to give Borucki, Waguespack, Kay, Thornton, Zeuch, Pearson and others all the opportunity in the world to see if we have any building blocks. If 1-2 breakout then you have a starter making 600k with 4-7 years of control, that’s more valuable to me than a middling free agent pitcher on a 1 or 2 year deal. That’s huge money you save that can be spent elsewhere. And if all those prospects fail then you can get a middling free agent pitcher next year, they are a dime a dozen.

I think you and I have the same thoughts. I want more competition and more stability on the team to raise the floor of the 2020 Jays but I want opportunity and spots for our young players to flourish. So we can determine if we have building blocks on the pitching side like we did with the position player side with Biggio, Gurriel, Jansen and others.

 

[phillipmike]

MLBPA Investigating Comments Of Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos

Seems like extremely harmless comments. MLBPA must be bored.

 

[barilko05]

Porcello and Gardner would be interesting on 1 year deals.

Gardner likely doesn’t touch the Jays but he is a left handed bat with good CF defense who can lead off with power.

Porcello is a former TORP with AL East experience and a Cherington guy.

Wacha intriguing too. Same age as Stroman with some success behind him.

I have an unnatural hate for that guy. Not sure why. He just exudes Yankee arrogance. Plus isn't his "power" a product of that bullshit RF short porch in Yankee Stadium? I think he might become VERY ordinary outside there.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

Wheeler and Odorizzi over Ryu and Bumgarner. Trust me.

I've warmed to the idea of Moustakas (if he's left out in the cold again) for both the left handed bat and signal to Vlad to get his ass in shape. Dickerson is a no-brainer, so I wont waste time bringing it up again.

Not super high on Wheeler but he's better than what we have now by far.

Absolutely yes to Odorizzi.

 

[Discoverer]

MLBPA Investigating Comments Of Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos

Seems like extremely harmless comments. MLBPA must be bored.

Haha that's hilarious. When he says "what other teams are looking to do in free agency" he's very obviously talking about developing a plan for the offseason as it relates to the direction other teams are planning on going... not collusion.

 

[Discoverer]

Not super high on Wheeler but he's better than what we have now by far.

Absolutely yes to Odorizzi.

I AM super high on Wheeler and would be happy with any of the top few pitchers. The compensation cost is a bit high for Wheeler and Odorizzi, but it would be worth it for the right deal.

 

[The Nemesis]

Just to add to the above, I think that most of those guys deserve chances because they have intriguing ceilings.

Kay and Borucki look like they could top out as decent #3s, Zeuch and Thornton as #4s, and Waguespack as a #5. In terms of likelihood to hit that point, I think it probably goes Thornton, Kay, Waguespack, Borucki, Zeuch in that order. It's worth investigating, for sure. Each of them has value in hitting their ceiling (Thornton and Kay seem like high-variance output guys who could have a few meltdowns, but also have a few dominating games. Zeuch's top shelf is the dependable innings-eater we all want for the 4/5 spot, Borucki as that sort of Buehrle-esque stable #3, and Waguespack as a kind of Marco-Estrada-like change-of-pace junkballer that would play extra well off of fireballing guys like Pearson.

Obviously I hold no illusions that this is a guaranteed success. Not all of them will make it, and maybe none of them do. I get that this is basically a Mystery Box proposition (mid-rotation FA starters are mid-rotation FA starters, but the prospects could be anything! they could even be mid-rotation FA starters! and you know how much we need some of those!) But given that next season isn't about contending and that it's a free season to figure some of this stuff out and like Philipmike says I'll take getting a couple of those guys on team-friendly pre-FA contracts over paying market value for them any day of the week. And the worst case scenario is basically no different than proposing to buy a couple of those guys this year.

I also agree that Biggio and Gurriel look like good advertisements for the approach too. Because in the big mass of prospects the team has brought along in the last couple of years, even if only a couple of them make their marks, those success stories are valuable enough to have explored the bunch of failed other attempts in the process.

 

[Discoverer]

Just to add to the above, I think that most of those guys deserve chances because they have intriguing ceilings.

Kay and Borucki look like they could top out as decent #3s, Zeuch and Thornton as #4s, and Waguespack as a #5. In terms of likelihood to hit that point, I think it probably goes Thornton, Kay, Waguespack, Borucki, Zeuch in that order. It's worth investigating, for sure. Each of them has value in hitting their ceiling (Thornton and Kay seem like high-variance output guys who could have a few meltdowns, but also have a few dominating games. Zeuch's top shelf is the dependable innings-eater we all want for the 4/5 spot, Borucki as that sort of Buehrle-esque stable #3, and Waguespack as a kind of Marco-Estrada-like change-of-pace junkballer that would play extra well off of fireballing guys like Pearson.

Obviously I hold no illusions that this is a guaranteed success. Not all of them will make it, and maybe none of them do. I get that this is basically a Mystery Box proposition (mid-rotation FA starters are mid-rotation FA starters, but the prospects could be anything! they could even be mid-rotation FA starters! and you know how much we need some of those!) But given that next season isn't about contending and that it's a free season to figure some of this stuff out and like Philipmike says I'll take getting a couple of those guys on team-friendly pre-FA contracts over paying market value for them any day of the week. And the worst case scenario is basically no different than proposing to buy a couple of those guys this year.

I also agree that Biggio and Gurriel look like good advertisements for the approach too. Because in the big mass of prospects the team has brought along in the last couple of years, even if only a couple of them make their marks, those success stories are valuable enough to have explored the bunch of failed other attempts in the process.

Cleveland's penchant for finding arms in unexpected places under Shapiro still has me intrigued to see what some of these guys can do.

 

[The Nemesis]

Not super high on Wheeler but he's better than what we have now by far.

Absolutely yes to Odorizzi.

The funny thing is that the line separating Wheeler from Odorizzi is a lot smaller than people think.

Wheeler:
3.96/3.48/4.06 ERA/FIP/xFIP
23.6% k rate
6.0% bb ate
1.26 WHIP
.311 BABIP
1.22 GB/FB
19.3%/49.3%/31.4% contact spread (soft/med/hard)
21.4% LD rate
10.9% HR/FB
10.4% whiff rate
79.3% contact rate

Odorizzi:
3.52/3.36/4.33 ERA/FIP/xFIP
27.1% k rate
8.1% bb rate
1.21 WHIP
.302 BABIP
0.79 GB/FB
14.7%/43%/42.3% contact spread
20.7% LD rate
8.8% HR/FB
12.7% whiff rate
74.0% contact rate

So in terms of results Odorizzi generates a few more Ks with a few more walks. is a more pronounced fly-ball pitcher while also keeping his stuff in the park more (though it's fair to suggest that some of that is going to come from playing in Minnesota where the expansive park will keep things contained a bit better than most other parks) and he gets more swing and miss out of his stuff. However, historically speaking Odorizzi struck guys out at a higher rate last year than ever before by a notable margin. His previous norms would've been behind Wheeler's K rate (which is also somewhat more consistently clustered around his 2019 amount.)

Wheeler is a more pronounced GB guy (which also explains the higher BABIP), gives up less hard contact, and walks fewer guys. His moderate red flag comes from his walk rate, which was well below his carer norm.


But the gap isn't significant. If anything it seems to say that Odorizzi is the gambler's choice, higher risk, higher reward (better upside if he repeats 2019, but the risk that balls start leaving the park in a move from Minnesota to Toronto, at which point he loses some shine) while Wheeler is the mildly unsexy "safer" pick (probably wouldn't be as good as the good 2019 Odorizzi, but there's a better chance you get what you've seen from him the last couple of years: a good #2/3 GB-heavy guy who gives you a little under 200 innings.)

The only other question about Wheeler is what you expect out of him given that he's a grounder-heavy, ball-in-play focused pitcher if you run him out with the Jays' indeterminate IF defence behind him. But at the same time the Mets IF D was noted for being a total train-wreck last season and he turned out OK so who knows how big the impact is