Post-Game Talk: Tue., Jan. 14, 2014| Flyers 4 at Sabres 3

[Damaged Goods]

Let's find out.

From Dec 1 to now...we have...carry the z, color it yellow...

.8932038834951456


So, that's bad.

SV% is volatile in sample sizes that short. He's a few saves short of where he should be, but a slump of this magnitude is not greatly concerning yet.

 

[phil162888]

Philly needs to make an unexpected move before the Olympic break.

We have so many C and no room for them. Other teams want some. And that means B.Shenn probably gets traded.

If Downie isn't going to play...trade him. Other teams needs 3rd liners with grit.

Brayden has been one of our best forwards the last 10 games. He's starting to look like a solid top 6 forward.....finally

 

[Beef Invictus]

SV% is volatile in sample sizes that short. He's a few saves short of where he should be, but a slump of this magnitude is not greatly concerning yet.

It's 412 shots in 16 games (Out of 980 shots and 36 appearances). 16 games is close to 20% of the season in skater terms...in goalie terms, assuming 60 starts, that's 27%. It's not exactly a tiny sample size. He's dropped from a .930 to .918 so far on the season. Nowadays a decent starter should give you .920, and he's creeping steadily down.

He had 9 games below .900 in that 16 game stretch. At 16 games between Dec 4 and Jan 14, it's time to get concerned. We're hoping for a long term solution in net; a good starting goalie should be more reliable than that...and combined with his career thus far, there isn't much in his past to earn him benefit of the doubt.

 

[orangecrush8]

Just got back from the game. What a wild third.

I honestly didn't think they played all that poorly, but when mistakes were made, they ended up in the back of the net.

The one glaring problem to me was faceoffs. The powerplay was killed because they seemed to lose every offensive zone faceoff. Christ, both Giroux and Lecavalier managed to lose multiple faceoffs after the Sabres centre had been tossed. Inexcusable.

But holy ****, Flyers nation was alive and well. There had to of been 2000 flyers fans in the lower bowl alone. The place exploded when Vinny scored

 

[MiamiScreamingEagles]

Just got back from the game. What a wild third.

I honestly didn't think they played all that poorly, but when mistakes were made, they ended up in the back of the net.

The one glaring problem to me was faceoffs. The powerplay was killed because they seemed to lose every offensive zone faceoff. Christ, both Giroux and Lecavalier managed to lose multiple faceoffs after the Sabres centre had been tossed. Inexcusable.

But holy ****, Flyers nation was alive and well. There had to of been 2000 flyers fans in the lower bowl alone. The place exploded when Vinny scored

The NBC announcer asked the commentator if he remembered any tough guy who excelled on draws similarly to Zenon Konopka who won 75%. He is at 65% this season.

The fan with the Reggie Leach shirt was ecstatic.

 

[Giroux tha Damaja]

He skates better, is more physical, and has a cannon for a shot. He's young and would put up some good numbers getting some 1st PP time.

It's 412 shots in 16 games (Out of 980 shots and 36 appearances). 16 games is close to 20% of the season in skater terms...in goalie terms, assuming 60 starts, that's 27%. It's not exactly a tiny sample size. He's dropped from a .930 to .918 so far on the season. Nowadays a decent starter should give you .920, and he's creeping steadily down.

He had 9 games below .900 in that 16 game stretch. At 16 games between Dec 4 and Jan 14, it's time to get concerned. We're hoping for a long term solution in net; a good starting goalie should be more reliable than that...and combined with his career thus far, there isn't much in his past to earn him benefit of the doubt.

Interesting numbers. He is still passing the eyeball test for me, in the sense that most of the goals he lets in I think "hmmm, yeah that was a pretty understandable one to give up". There have been less of the miraculous desperation saves of late though. Those types of shots against are ending up as goals more often now. Makes me think he might benefit from just getting a game or two off to get fresh again. Too bad we've got stiff-hips backing him up.

His level of play before was unsustainable imo. I think the D is still playing well a lot of the time, but when they're ****ing up, boy are they ever ****ing up. Some of the chances against lately have been really bad. They just need to be a little more vigilant on D imo, it's not like they're getting picked apart because they're just not good enough.

I think a little more consistent executon on D and rest during the Olympic break will see his numbers bonce back. At least I hope so.

 

[Damaged Goods]

It's 412 shots in 16 games (Out of 980 shots and 36 appearances). 16 games is close to 20% of the season in skater terms...in goalie terms, assuming 60 starts, that's 27%. It's not exactly a tiny sample size. He's dropped from a .930 to .918 so far on the season. Nowadays a decent starter should give you .920, and he's creeping steadily down.

He had 9 games below .900 in that 16 game stretch. At 16 games between Dec 4 and Jan 14, it's time to get concerned. We're hoping for a long term solution in net; a good starting goalie should be more reliable than that...and combined with his career thus far, there isn't much in his past to earn him benefit of the doubt.

Here are rolling 10-game save percentages for some statistically decent starting goalies. You'll notice how frequently they can dip into the sub-.900 range for 10+ game stretches.

The magnitude and length of this slump isn't severe enough to be statistically meaningful yet. We'll have to wait longer to see if there's something persistent to it. Until then, it's more important to see if Mason looks shaky out there or not.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Here are rolling 10-game save percentages for some statistically decent starting goalies. You'll notice how frequently they can dip into the sub-.900 range for 10+ game stretches.

The magnitude and length of this slump isn't severe enough to be statistically meaningful yet. We'll have to wait longer to see if there's something persistent to it. Until then, it's more important to see if Mason looks shaky out there or not.

Does it become meaningful for you when his entire career up to this point is considered?

Because frankly, I think he still has some ways to go to show the 25ish great games here supplant the 200 that came before.


I do agree with GTD that Mason is largely passing the eyeball test though, so that is something.

Edit: And yeah, I think the Olympic break could do both goaltenders a lot of good. Couturier as well, his doubled ice time this year has to be having an effect.

 

[Damaged Goods]

Does it become meaningful for you when his entire career up to this point is considered?

Because frankly, I think he still has some ways to go to show the 25ish great games here supplant the 200 that came before.


I do agree with GTD that Mason is largely passing the eyeball test though, so that is something.

It's going to take hundreds of games of stellar play to drag his career numbers up. That's kind of water under the bridge.

I understand the skepticism about Mason (I was full of it before the season), but it doesn't change the fact that small sample sizes of SV% are incredibly noisy. Those numbers are not alarming for a 16-game stretch, and I'm not alarmed by what I'm seeing either.

 

[Beef Invictus]

It's going to take hundreds of games of stellar play to drag his career numbers up. That's kind of water under the bridge.

I understand the skepticism about Mason (I was full of it before the season), but it doesn't change the fact that small sample sizes of SV% are incredibly noisy. Those numbers are not alarming for a 16-game stretch, and I'm not alarmed by what I'm seeing either.

Oh, I'm not talking about his career numbers being brought up. I just mean it's gonna take more than 25ish good games in Philly to really show he's a reformed goalie. He has a ways to go before he earns my trust.

 

[Funf]

Getting Read back is huge. Having someone who can play defense and skate well on that 3rd line makes a noticeable improvement.

Anyway, sloppy game. Didn't look involved at all in the 1st, sloppy defense, weak goal by Mason in the 3rd, but the two points are nice...

 

[Harold Bingo]

Happy they won, though it certainly wasn't pretty. And are you guys really talking about Steve Mason being of any fault tonight? Which goal should he have saved? I think we were spoiled with the saves he was making earlier this season.

And why were Mez and L. Schenn out there right after the Flyers took the lead? I'm not sure it was their fault the Sabres scored as the forwards for the Flyers looked pretty lost, but for god's sake, why would you put your two worst defensemen out there when you're trying to protect a lead?!

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

didnt watch the game but considering how he has played of late I imagine it was pretty shocking to have Vinny out there in a tie game with the clock winding down. Thankfully it worked out.

 

[CanadianFlyersFan18]

Just got back from the game. What a wild third.

I honestly didn't think they played all that poorly, but when mistakes were made, they ended up in the back of the net.

The one glaring problem to me was faceoffs. The powerplay was killed because they seemed to lose every offensive zone faceoff. Christ, both Giroux and Lecavalier managed to lose multiple faceoffs after the Sabres centre had been tossed. Inexcusable.

But holy ****, Flyers nation was alive and well. There had to of been 2000 flyers fans in the lower bowl alone. The place exploded when Vinny scored

Pretty awesome game eh! I was up in the clubs and literally threw my beer in the air! lower bowl was packed with orange it was fun! But besides Vinny's goal my god is he ever slow. Watching live put a new perspective on how slow that man is now a days. Great hands and shot still but I'll hate to see his legs in a few years.

 

[Damaged Goods]

"I'm looking right over his shoulder."

 

[CanadianFlyer88]

Went back through the game and one thing that jumped out is how well Raffl played with Couturier and Read. That's a checking line that could work.

Keep G & Jake together, throw the other 4 top 6 guys in a blender and make something work. Downie/VV/Hall on the 4th line and I'm liking the make up of the team moving forward.

"Stat" of the night: The Flyers have 35 games left and 21 are on home ice. Only 14 road games the rest of the season.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Went back through the game and one thing that jumped out is how well Raffl played with Couturier and Read. That's a checking line that could work.

Keep G & Jake together, throw the other 4 top 6 guys in a blender and make something work. Downie/VV/Hall on the 4th line and I'm liking the make up of the team moving forward.

"Stat" of the night: The Flyers have 35 games left and 21 are on home ice. Only 14 road games the rest of the season.

have some killer road games tho. the California trip. St. Louis as well.

 

[dats81]

L Schenn was also really bad. That third pair is a disaster.

What are you expecting when Slowfoot is paired with that Slovak guy who doesn't play defense and knows **** about positioning?

It' tough to look good when everything you do all game long is picking up the garbage for you buddy...


I can see Berube beching Luke again. Mesz will stay in the lineup as long as he puts up points no matter how bad he is.
Gus and Mesz as a 3rd pairing has been half decent in the past. At least Gus can compensate some with his quick skating in a strictly defensive role.

 

[Fire Tortorella]

Just finished watching the game. Didn't think L. Schenn played that bad until the 3rd. Mez is awful as usual.

Only goal I thought that should have been stopped was the 3rd. Stopping the first or second goal would have needed an incredible save.

 

[Beef Invictus]

"I'm looking right over his shoulder."

That doesn't appear to be the recommended position for a goalie in such a situation.

 

[Damaged Goods]

Giroux wins the draw:

That doesn't appear to be the recommended position for a goalie in such a situation.

He was absolutely not down in the butterfly.

 

[Psuhockey]

What are you expecting when Slowfoot is paired with that Slovak guy who doesn't play defense and knows **** about positioning?

It' tough to look good when everything you do all game long is picking up the garbage for you buddy...


I can see Berube beching Luke again. Mesz will stay in the lineup as long as he puts up points no matter how bad he is.
Gus and Mesz as a 3rd pairing has been half decent in the past. At least Gus can compensate some with his quick skating in a strictly defensive role.

Luke was pretty bad all by himself. He made one of the worst decisions of the game late when he skated straight up the middle of the ice, got striped, and created a two on one. On the 3rd goal, he got caught on the side boards and didn't rotate over to center fast enough. That actually caused Mezz to hesitate and cover the man in the middle and not come over to the shooter. Mezz blows, no argument, but L. Schenn was bad and has been for the majority of the season. They both would be addition by subtraction at this point.

 

[Appleyard]

"I'm looking right over his shoulder."

Enroths positioning is so bad that looks photo-shopped.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Seizure engaged....

 

[Hiesenberg]

The pairing of Schenn/Mesz is so bad I think putting 5 forwards on the ice would be better.

I don't know if its Schenn or Mesz or both or with them being together, it just doesn't work. Put Gross with Schenn and put Gus w/ Streit, eff it, go for offense with at least 1 of the pairings.