But we're also not sitting here with nothing to show for these years. We've got quite a few potential future core pieces to show for it. Even this year, we're getting ourselves a Dubois/Tkachuk cornerstone. They've been adding pieces to the pipeline for a few years now.
You're making it sound like the Canucks aren't drafting top-end talent in the last few years of "mediocrity". And accumulating later picks with some potential. Which isn't remotely true.
Refer to my response to FAN below regarding our prospect pool.
This idea that we could be "bad for 2-3 years" then "great for 7-8" is just absurd and detached from the reality of what happens with NHL franchises. You can knock 2-3 drafts out of the park, and still be a bad team...in fact, that's very likely the result. It takes 5+ years of drafting and follow-on development to really turn things around as an actual "great team" with true depth of prospects and real balance.
There are no shortcuts. And that includes tanking for 2-3 years. That isn't a real shortcut.
I agree that it'd take 5+ years to become a true contender.
By tank for "2-3 years" I mean that we try to accumulate the most amount of picks and prospects as possible and draft as high as possible.
In years 4 and 5 we sign UFAs while our current young players are hitting their primes and we start to push:
- Horvat, Hutton, Baertschi, Virtanen, Tryamkin will all start to enter their primes
- Tanev, Edler, Gudbranson will still be effective veterans
- Prospects like Boeser and Demko will start to push for spots
- 27-31 year-old UFAs can be signed at this point to supplement and insulate the roster and their contracts will run through the duration of the primes of the young players mentioned above (signing these UFAs now means they will begin to decline when we are ready to push and eat valuable cap)
- Prospects we draft with those high (top-5) picks will be 18, 19 or 20 years-old giving us a great pool and players to push for spots 7, 8, 9 years down the line when guys like Horvat are at the end of their primes.
This is obviously a "best-case scenario" type thing but 100% plausible. People will refute it by saying "well it's not that easy, you have to draft well too!" but that's a requirement for success with any type of plan, rebuild or not.
The goal is real, sustainable contention for a long period of time. Not mortgaging some to all of the future hoping for a quick fix that never works.
As for the rest of your post, I guess we can agree to disagree on the philosophical differences between tanking and not.
It's not as simple as you describe. The Oilers unquestionably drafted the consensus BPA with their first overall picks and they did spend some high picks on defence. Like you said. "A rebuild needs balance." You can't just accumulate draft picks. You need to draft well. At some point, you got to turn those prospects into players and fill holes. Take the Jets' rebuild. All they did was accumulate draft picks, draft, and patiently wait for them to develop. That led to one playoff year.
Jets are a budget team and have a much better prospect pool with younger core players. They aren't a comparable for us.
Because there are no guarantees. How many teams have drafted in the top 3 two consecutive years? As we witnessed at the lottery it may be even harder to do so now.
You don't need top-3 picks to rebuild or draft star players. It helps but it's not necessary and if you tank well enough there's a good chance you'll get a top-3 pick in one of your 2-3 terrible years.
I'm pretty hopeful. The 5th overall pick, the past 3 drafts, Hutton's emergence, and Markstrom and Tanev gives me hope that there are some young building blocks in place.
Anti-rebuilders keep bringing up our small group of prospects as if they are something special. Look around the league: pretty much every team has just as many if not more quality prospects than us and the ones that don't are either contending or are in store for a terrible future just like us.
No. The point of a rebuild is to put building blocks in place. One strategy is to stockpile prospects and picks. When you have a chance to grab a young player that fills a hole you do so. Sometimes you succeed sometimes you don't. Sometimes you fail by trading two 2nds and a 3rd for Anders Lindback and sometimes you trade much less for a Ben Bishop.
That trade for Lindback was terrible when it happened, not just in hindsight. Terrible trades and gambles shouldn't be used as a guideline for rebuilding.
If the Canucks can get Stamkos or Okposo+Lucic they'll be a pretty damn good team imo. A lot of it will rest on the development of Hutton, Horvat and Virtanen and the emergence of Rodin
Those are some giant "if"s.
We really are not like the Sharks at all. Our defense is one of the worst puck-moving groups in the league and I'm pretty sure if you add all of our defense points together they still score less than just Brent Burns. They have two top notch defensemen in Vlasic and Burns and then some other solid guys like Braun and Martin. We have no one as good as Vlasic or Burns.
It won't matter how good our forwards are if our defense can't get them the puck. Edler and Tanev are great but they are shouldering a heavy load and both have had their fair share of injuries. And yet all I see are lineups with the same defense core as last year but with one more defence-first guy in Gudbranson and a few more older expensive forwards added. Unless we acquire a 1st-pairing elite offensive dman or Hutton turns into one by October we are going to still stink even if we add Lucic and Stamkos.
All of this.