I still don't see how the numbers ever work out in Trouba's favor - especially if the Jets are (or were) actually offering $5.5M x 6.
If he actually misses a year, he's out millions - not just the $5.5M this year, but over his entire career. He adds a year to get to UFA, and he lowers his next contract value. Say it's a $3M x 2 year bridge starting in 2017-18. He's cost himself $10.5M just over the next 3 years, plus one less year of UFA (probably worth another $8M-$10M).
His only hope is to force a trade - and if Chevy's not willing to deal him, then he has to sign here before December 1. Otherwise he's shooting himself in the foot with a bazooka.
The market value for Trouba is certainly in the neighbourhood of $5.5M x 6, but the official story here is that Chevy hasn't been allowed to even make an offer.
I've made this point before, but the reality here is if he misses the year, the only loser is Trouba. Jets will end up with another year of Trouba's services & the value of a 26 year old Trouba will certainly be greater than him at 22.
His hope since day 1 has been to force a trade, likely to a team of his choosing.
Both Overhardt and Chevy probably know that other teams' best trade offers will come when there's a deadline looming, if they want Trouba for the balance of the season. Chevy's in the driver's seat, and Overhardt knows it. This is not a situation where they are just facing each other in a contract negotiation, they need at least one and maybe even two NHL teams to both offer up good trade value and agree to contract terms for Trouba. I really don't think this will end with Trouba signing with the Jets before a trade is arranged, but I could be wrong. It depends on whether Chevy is really going to play hardball on principle.
I agree that Chevy is in the drivers seat. Trouba's comments prior to Overhardt shutting him up earlier in the month was that he expected to play NHL hockey this season inferring that this is a priority for him, not playing overseas. They've played their little game with hope that they may get their way, but it's certainly not looking good for the Trouba camp at the moment.
Agreed. I've stated this many times already, everything up till now and until the 11th hour is not really even serious offers, certainly not "best offers". The 11th hour will bring fewer offers, but of higher quality "best offer" types. I fully expect Trouba to be traded before Dec 1st without a contract with the Jets, but with a verbal agreement with some other club.
I don't think this is a plausible outcome. Trading Trouba without a signed contract will net the worst return. Chevy has held out this long & will gain big points with his fellow GM's & ownership around the league by making him sit out the season should Trouba not put pen to paper & sign. As mentioned earlier in the long term the Jets lose nothing as they gain another year of Trouba if he doesn't play this season. Trade his rights at the deadline to a team in tank mode & a sizeable return will come our way.
Surprised at that assessment Whileee. I assume you're banking on a trade happening then? I'm definitely not of that leaning, though it all depends on who is out there that really really wants him on their team.
For a trade to happen, have to have 2 or more teams with that strong desire at the last minute. Can't see it happening -- going to take a lot of last minute rangling, but I see him signing a contract (just not sure if Chevy will be able to force the long-term on him -- because that is the ideal scenario for us)
I'm certain there are more than two teams with strong interest. The problem is likely Trouba doesn't want to go there.
The worst thing is, there's a good possibility that Trouba will only go to a certain team and is not budging. It's certainly not about usage, as the team with the worst RHD depth in the league isn't a fit for him. This is very likely about the city - but not in terms of Winnipeg being a bad one, it's about some other city being the exact one he wants to go to.
Bang on. Chevy isn't about to let them dictate this.
Something I've been wondering about since I saw it bandied around on the main boards. What happens if Trouba gets someone to do up an offer sheet for say 1 yr at 5 mill?
Jets have to sign him -- can't let him go. But then he's yr to yr with arbitration rights. Doesn't that work to his advantage & get him where he wants to go??
These GM's talk to each other every day & offer sheets are very rare. I'm sure their community is in support of Chevy at this point & the last thing anyone is going to do is offer him a one year deal & further a players agenda. Ownership would not approve.
