Romang67
BitterSwede
Continued from:
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2074255
Carry on.
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=2074255
I hear ya. I also believe that TSNE hold all the cards here. There is a cost/benefit ratio that factors into sitting out regular season games however. From the agent/player perspective it might be worth a few paychecks now in order to secure extra money over multiple years.
Subban is actually a good case of this. He sat out the first four games of the season (contrary to your belief), and ended up with a generous bridge deal. The bridge worked in his favour since he won the Norris the next year and was able to secure a lucrative deal as an RFA with arb rights.
Johansen is interesting. He ended up signing a 3 year bridge before the season started, but when you look at the numbers you can see why. The first two years were 3mil while the 3rd year was 6mil. A 4mil AAV seems reasonable, but it belies that backloaded year that was closer to Johansen's ask of 2 year, 13mil. Lo and behold, Johansen gets traded before that 6mil year..
Although I think that Chevy and Overhardt will get a deal done, the circumstances around Trouba are ripe for another Peca-esque situation. Chevy is not going to fold, the Jets have bodies to fill RHD and they might just do an adequate job (not as good as Troubs.. but). If Trouba does sit out part of the regular season and the Jets put up some wins during that time, this could drag on.
I still feel strongly that he'll be out for all of TC, but I'd be happy to be wrong. If he signs a bridge then he's as good as traded.
He might sit out, but it will quickly become economically disadvantageous in the longer term. Missing half a season, and as much as $3 million in salary would be very difficult to make up over a 6 year deal (he'd need to get more than an extra $0.5M per year in salary to make it financially equivalent).
$5.5M per year x 6 years is better than $6M per year x 6 years after sitting out half a season.
I think he would only sit out if there is a huge gap in salary, or he really doesn't want to stay long-term and his agent is trying to get a short-term "bridge" deal with the Jets that is very disadvantageous for the Jets. Once he holds out, the Jets can wield quite a bit of financial pressure and Trouba takes on quite a bit of financial risk.
I think he'll sign right before TC is set to begin personally. If he truly does want to be traded sitting out is the single worst thing you can do. If you show up and showcase what you can do then the teams are watching a kid that can play and will work hard for the team no.matter the situation. If you sit out, you look entitled.
He should only be traded if it's a deal that helps the team in the long haul.
I'd love for you to provide an example of a 22 year old burgeoning star defenceman whose career was ended by holding out. There is ZERO chance that, no matter how long he holds out, this is the end of his career. That is frankly a ridiculous and unsupportable notion.
The reality is, Trouba does have some degree of power in the form of asset utilization. I moved from Winnipeg to Toronto and, on my walk to work over the last 2 years, 4 (4!) separate surface parking lots have been torn up and replaced by condos in the span of 1.5km. Why? Because the land is an asset and that asset became underutilized at some point when condo prices rose to a certain level if it remained as a parking lot.
Trouba is an asset. A valuable asset at that. His power comes from sitting out and leaving the Jets with an asset that isn't being capitalized on. Potentially, Trouba and his management team could make the return in a trade the best use for the Jets of their asset (whether that be by simply not playing, not participating in extra practice, lifting sessions, etc., being problematic in the dressing room, etc.).
Unfortunately, everything seems to be pointing towards Trouba wanting out. From hiring an agent with a proven track record of getting players traded (Dubinsky, Johansson, Turris....), to the fact that there hasn't seemed to have been a lot of movement between the two sides, to the reports that have trickled out, the tea leaves are shouting "Trouba wants a trade".
And that's ok. Winnipeg is not a market for everyone. I love Winnipeg and loved living there and will likely be back. But I grew up there, having family and friends in the city and understand the appeal. There will be people that don't like playing there. In the same way, there are players that don't want to be in Toronto, New York, Florida, etc. This will happen every few years with certain players - fact of life, let's accept it and trust Chevy to make the best decision and use of the valuable assets he's compiled.
Of course Trouba will be out for most of the training camp. The World cup potentially runs until October 1st, Semi-finals for the top 2 finishers in each group are on Sept 24/25 and the Finals are Sept 27, 29 and Oct 1st if necessary. The regular season starts Oct 12th so he'll miss a good portion of training camp regardless.
Carry on.
