Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part 10)

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salbutera

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I believe recency bias plays a major role in teams who are highly successful at the draft table. I.e the head scouts of these teams usually perform at peak for 5-years max before reversion to norm.

That recency bias is directly correlated to contacts. Al Murray (TBay head scouting) who I hold in very high regard, was brought aboard by Stevie Y from Hockey Canada in 2011. He had been following Point & Cirelli since they were 13 in their minor hockey programs - known entities. Murray’s first 5-years were highly successful, he had contacts at the various levels in place to leverage & get intel from. Fast fwd 5-years, and many of those contacts had moved on.

The last number of years TBays drafting has reverted to the norm - given they’ve drafted later due to the teams success and traded many picks as well.

However, if you look at teams post-2004 lockout the best performing teams at the draft table tend to have a max of 5-year peak shelf life before falling back to the pack.

From 2011-2016 Murray drafted Kucherov, Vasilevsky, Point, Cirelli. From 2003-2008
Timmins it could be argued drafted Price, Pacioretty, McDonagh, Subban....but on cue his shelf life ended.
 
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montreal

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Shouldn't you wait till they reach the NHL before you can say that the work done in the AHL paid its dues? What will it does to the NHL team if the only thing we could be satisfied of is to have a better AHL team while we still have to acquire Eric Staal of this world in the NHL?

How hard it is? Well as I said before, from 03-07, he had 1 top 10, 1 top 15 and 2 first rounders no later than 22nd overall. From 08-16, we had 1 top 3. In one of the worst draft ever.

So let's go at it again...based on those picks, how EASIER is it for the head scout to not mess up. And how easier it is for the AHL and NHL coach to not mess them up? Compared to years where they had only 1 top 3 pick?

In the end, Lefebvre had a chance to do something with 27% of prospects. Compared to 45% for the others based on the 03-07 picks. Yep, Lefebvre should have been able to do something more with Leblanc and maybe Tinordi and Beaulieu. Scherbak improved his numbers every year he was with Lefebvre.

Yes and no, as this is where the NHL coach plays a roll. So what you want to see from the AHL coach is to see his prospects improving/progressing. Then in the NHL, it's out of the AHL coaches hands. Take Scherbak, say Lefebvre was able to turn him into a solid 2 way player, as we know his offensive game increased every year the problem was the rest of his game never improved and a lot of that imo is on Scherbak as he never struck me as mature or hard working. But let's say Lefebvre pulls it off, and Scherbak by the time he's in the NHL he looks good. But when in the NHL MT/Julien put him on the 4th line with grinders, he struggles to produce, turns into a bubble guy. That wouldn't be on Lefebvre, as he would have done his job.

With Bouchard since I've seen every game, I've seen how much Evans improved each year. How much Vejdemo improved each year. Look at Fleury, got sent down last year and was just terrible. This year he's way better then last year. Of course there's Brook and Poehling and how much they have improved over last year. That's what you want to see from your AHL coach.

Of course you need them to be a success in the NHL, and so far Evans has been ok but we know everyone will see it differently. We don't know if this is his peak or not, time will tell.

As for the picks, again it doesn't matter when just about every prospect he coached regressed. Scherbak improved his numbers but never improved where he needed to. Scherbak was handed as poorly as could be by Lefebvre, for reasons I've listed hundreds of times. Tinordi, Beaulieu, DLR, McCarron, Leblanc, Scherbak. There's no way anyone can convince me that with a better AHL coach, better development team not rushing them, that we would miss on all of them. They should have been able to do a better job, starting with Timmins as he clearly made mistakes going for size (McCarron/Tinordi/DLR/Crisp), etc.. then Lefebvre who has zero head coaching experience does what imo was a terrible job in the decisions he made, then you have the crappy job from management in calling them up too soon, doing the yo-yo at times. Then you have the NHL coaching not putting them in good positions to succeed and finally you have the players for not working on what they needed to. That's why I have said countless times and likely will have to say it countless more that I will NEVER blame just one person for this mess. It's NOT just Timmins or Lefebvre or MB, or MT/Julien or the players. It's all of them to some degree.

I just think it's becoming very clear. We saw how good a job Guy Boucher did, the Randy's even Lever who i wasn't a big fan of, then we saw how terrible a job Lefebvre did, how he hasn't been able to find a head coaching job since, something he never had any experience at before. Now we are seeing much better results in the AHL under Bouchard, anyone that watched the Lefebvre coached teams and the Bouchard coached teams and doesn't see it very clearly, there's no helping you or no point discussing it as it's plain as day.

So we did good/ok whatever ones definition, then MB makes poor choices in hiring a head coach who has no experience and a former head coach that was fired a few years previously. Then he compounds that by replacing MT with a similar dinosaur in Julien. But he makes one of his best moves in hiring Bouchard and it's night and day as our AHL team is finally playing structured hockey. NO matter the picks, how many, where they were picked, he's got his players playing hard, sound, structured hockey.
 

montreal

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Good on Bergy to bring Caufield to the big club so he can watch a losing team, instead of playing for a winning team in Laval.

well i've been saying to any0ne that would listen for years now that MB has no clue how to develop skilled players. People just want to blame Timmins but I've never seen so many mistakes in development by one person and still have a job. We can't know what the real impact of all these stupid decisions have on them, but we what do know is we have seen this repeat itself time after time.

To some it's no big deal when you have a 20 year old center that gets benched in the AHL and days later he gets called up to the NHL. But at the very least it shows incompetence or a lack of vision/plan. Your a 20 year old goalie and just gave up 14 goals in 3 games, hey let's see how you do vs the best offense in the best league in the world despite struggling against AHLers. You just turned 20 days ago and have been out most of the season with 2 major injuries, lets move you to a tougher position that you never played before, what could go wrong. Never been a head coach at ANY level? Do I have a job for you, how could that go badly, even if you suck at it, I will hold the job while you try and find an NHL job. Of course you won't be able to even get an AHL job as a head coach but I will still hold the job for you.

Meanwhile Molson sits on his hands either too stupid or lazy or cheap to see what has been going on for years. I believe in Marc, he's the right man for the job. Meanwhile the team looks like shit, the prospects struggle to develop, coaches get fired and the team looks even worse.

Great job guys, great job.
 

Whitesnake

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well i've been saying to any0ne that would listen for years now that MB has no clue how to develop skilled players. People just want to blame Timmins but I've never seen so many mistakes in development by one person and still have a job. We can't know what the real impact of all these stupid decisions have on them, but we what do know is we have seen this repeat itself time after time.

To some it's no big deal when you have a 20 year old center that gets benched in the AHL and days later he gets called up to the NHL. But at the very least it shows incompetence or a lack of vision/plan. Your a 20 year old goalie and just gave up 14 goals in 3 games, hey let's see how you do vs the best offense in the best league in the world despite struggling against AHLers. You just turned 20 days ago and have been out most of the season with 2 major injuries, lets move you to a tougher position that you never played before, what could go wrong. Never been a head coach at ANY level? Do I have a job for you, how could that go badly, even if you suck at it, I will hold the job while you try and find an NHL job. Of course you won't be able to even get an AHL job as a head coach but I will still hold the job for you.

Meanwhile Molson sits on his hands either too stupid or lazy or cheap to see what has been going on for years. I believe in Marc, he's the right man for the job. Meanwhile the team looks like shit, the prospects struggle to develop, coaches get fired and the team looks even worse.

Great job guys, great job.

It is insanely stupid. True. But today, NOBODY can say that what's happening today and even this year will undoubtebly hinder his development. Yes, it prooves all what you are saying. NO vision, no plan, been on that bandwagon for quite some time now. Even with the people who were saying that since 2018, he seemed to have finally got it....of course he didn't.

Molson...yeah the guy with the 3 to 12 years plan? Something that will be strange (well not for him 'cause he's an idiot) but if he fires Bergevin this summer....what about the 3 to 12 year plan? Shouldn't he just continue with him since it's all part of the supposed plan (should I also say that there is NO plan...).

And by the way....Timmins has been an assistant GM for quite some time now. Shouldn't he take some blame for that at one point? Unless we have to believe that he keeps disagreeing with Beregvin all the time?
 

montreal

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It is insanely stupid. True. But today, NOBODY can say that what's happening today and even this year will undoubtebly hinder his development. Yes, it prooves all what you are saying. NO vision, no plan, been on that bandwagon for quite some time now. Even with the people who were saying that since 2018, he seemed to have finally got it....of course he didn't.

Molson...yeah the guy with the 3 to 12 years plan? Something that will be strange (well not for him 'cause he's an idiot) but if he fires Bergevin this summer....what about the 3 to 12 year plan? Shouldn't he just continue with him since it's all part of the supposed plan (should I also say that there is NO plan...).

And by the way....Timmins has been an assistant GM for quite some time now. Shouldn't he take some blame for that at one point? Unless we have to believe that he keeps disagreeing with Beregvin all the time?


I actually don't mind the Caufield move, I was just using it as a chance to take another shot at MB/Molson. I think Caufield getting to practice with NHLers is good. I assume the plan is that he will play in the playoffs and while i've been likely the biggest complainer about MB rushing prospects, in this case it's hard not to and I actually have to give MB lots of credit for not rushing him last year as I thought for sure, 100% CC gets signed there. So I was very impressed that he finally seemed to do something right (though a broken clock is right twice a day).

I really think the extra year for CC could pay huge dividends, I still worry a decent amount about how at times his effort level in his own end is just so bad. But I do feel like it won't be that way in the NHL, of course I have nothing to base that off of just a hunch.

I want to wait and see what the plan is, I wonder if they had expected to put Byron on the taxi again with the thought that they could then call up CC, but then Byron started putting up pts and Gallagher could be back sooner so the LTIR doesn't help if he's back before the playoffs. If CC plays either reg or playoff games then ok, but if he doesn't and doesn't play in any Laval games then that's stupid But let's see what the plan is for CC.

Molson, I just can't stand the guy. The whole it could take up to 7 years to rebuild and then in a season where we look like dog shit and were 24th OA and sinking we make the covid playoffs and win a series and all the sudden he says the rebuild is over. A beer salesman is making hockey decisions? This guy knows what's best for us how?

As for Timmins, show me proof where he has say in these development decisions and then we'll talk. I have no clue that says he is or isn't involved. I have no clue what him and Mellanby do as AGM. I know it was said Timmins gave the green light to trade for Suzuki, so it of course would seem logical that he's involved in any form of moves that are related to scouting as I got to think he spends the bulk of his time dealing with that, especially now that Churla is gone.
 
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Whitesnake

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Keep Timmins this summer. I want to see the real brillance of this guy 'cause this year....only the best will survive with those seasons ending and all. And you have Bouchard in the AHL. Time to shine.
 

montreal

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Keep Timmins this summer. I want to see the real brillance of this guy 'cause this year....only the best will survive with those seasons ending and all. And you have Bouchard in the AHL. Time to shine.

I keep saying it over and over. What needs to happen starts at the top. They fired Julien and assistant coaches, what good did that do and I wanted Julien fired badly. No this mess starts and ends with Molson. f*** him. Get a real hockey President, someone that has experience and knowledge of the game. Then let him do whatever he wants. Fire MB? Sure, if not then he better give a damn good reason for it. Replace the scouts, then so be it, but if not maybe someone will lighten up a little on him since we do have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL I'm guessing. But Molson has to go and then let's see what the moves are.
 

Whitesnake

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I keep saying it over and over. What needs to happen starts at the top. They fired Julien and assistant coaches, what good did that do and I wanted Julien fired badly. No this mess starts and ends with Molson. f*** him. Get a real hockey President, someone that has experience and knowledge of the game. Then let him do whatever he wants. Fire MB? Sure, if not then he better give a damn good reason for it. Replace the scouts, then so be it, but if not maybe someone will lighten up a little on him since we do have one of the best prospect pools in the NHL I'm guessing. But Molson has to go and then let's see what the moves are.

The thing is we have to go with reality. Yes. f*** Molson....but he owns the team. At least a big part of quite a few people. So what we have to hope can only be 2 things. He sells the team. Or he moves away and let somebody else from the consortium to decide or he does wake up and hire a hockey president. But...I don't trust his judgment so....how in the world will he be able to get the right president? Frankly, at this point, we need luck. That's it.
 

montreal

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The thing is we have to go with reality. Yes. f*** Molson....but he owns the team. At least a big part of quite a few people. So what we have to hope can only be 2 things. He sells the team. Or he moves away and let somebody else from the consortium to decide or he does wake up and hire a hockey president. But...I don't trust his judgment so....how in the world will he be able to get the right president? Frankly, at this point, we need luck. That's it.

he's not the sole owner though right? He reports to a board if I'm not mistaken? at some point you would think there would be calls in the media for him to step down. Like when who was it the mayor that publicly called out Desharnais, maybe something like that needs to happen but with Molson. Guess it will depend on what direction this team goes, if they miss the playoffs and suck next year, maybe the outcry will get louder? Then again if they make the playoffs you could have the dreaded extension for MB and Molson will just stick around thinking he's actually doing a good job
 

Doc5

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The unknown this year with Covid derailing so many development leagues. U18's are going to be heavily scouted... more than ever before

It's a good opportunity to do our homework and find a star in that 2nd or 3rd round. I believe Point and Gaudreau are the only elite level talent to go in the 3rd round in over a decade.
Yeah, I bet the good scouting teams like Ottawa are salivating. Timmins and co are most probably dusting off the dart board :rolleyes:
 

robert ethan

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Yeah, I bet the good scouting teams like Ottawa are salivating. Timmins and co are most probably dusting off the dart board :rolleyes:
If Ottawa is such a great drafting team, why are they picking top 5, AGAIN? It's not like they just joined the league and haven't had time to build a roster.
 

Doc5

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If Ottawa is such a great drafting team, why are they picking top 5, AGAIN? It's not like they just joined the league and haven't had time to build a roster.
Their management sucks?

I don’t know if it’s their scouting or their development but they seem to always hit on atleast 2 solid prospects each draft.
 

yianik

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Yeah, I bet the good scouting teams like Ottawa are salivating. Timmins and co are most probably dusting off the dart board :rolleyes:

No. If we used a dart board we would have a higher rate of success.

Our criteria for BPA just sucks is all. You know, often shooting for two way, 3rd line potential.
 

bopeep

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No. If we used a dart board we would have a higher rate of success.

Our criteria for BPA just sucks is all. You know, often shooting for two way, 3rd line potential.
I probably would have agreed with you before, but the past 3 years have been very solid so far and I hope the picks keep developing
 

McGees

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The unknown this year with Covid derailing so many development leagues. U18's are going to be heavily scouted... more than ever before

It's a good opportunity to do our homework and find a star in that 2nd or 3rd round. I believe Point and Gaudreau are the only elite level talent to go in the 3rd round in over a decade.
Also Mete according to Sens fans.
 

yianik

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I probably would have agreed with you before, but the past 3 years have been very solid so far and I hope the picks keep developing

It is looking more hopeful, but still waiting to spew out 4-5 top 6 players , top 3D , to catch up on TTs batting average.
 

yianik

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Maybe its me, but I swear in Mock Drafts they so often have the Habs picking players who have various qualities, but have limitations in offensive upside. Most recently I saw one where we were picking Ralph Schmidt because he is huge, can skate, and is aggressive. The next picks were of forwards with top 6 potential.

My point is that it seems we have a reputation for generally ( not always certainly ) not going after high end talent, and instead favoring other qualities. Like the kind that makes for good middle 6 players if things work out.

Or am I wrong?
 

L4br3cqu3

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Maybe its me, but I swear in Mock Drafts they so often have the Habs picking players who have various qualities, but have limitations in offensive upside. Most recently I saw one where we were picking Ralph Schmidt because he is huge, can skate, and is aggressive. The next picks were of forwards with top 6 potential.

My point is that it seems we have a reputation for generally ( not always certainly ) not going after high end talent, and instead favoring other qualities. Like the kind that makes for good middle 6 players if things work out.

Or am I wrong?

Timmins and co don't seem to like taking risks, cause it often blow up in his face, Kostitsyn in 2003 was a high end talent but didn't develop as expected, Price in 2005 developed as expected so he got one there, 2007 is pretty much the reason he's been with the Habs for nearly 20 years, after that I'd say Galchenyuk in 2012 (didn't work), Scherbak in 2014 (even worse), Sergachev in 2016 (traded for talent up front, we lost that trade big time), Kotkaniemi in 2018 and Caufield in 2019, both very young...

They take some risks in later rounds, but not enough for my taste, nothing against the kids but I hate when they draft 'safe', low-potential prospects because they play a well-rounded game, you don't build a team with those players, you fill the remaining holes and that's it...
 

Doc5

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My impression was that the habs do try to pick BPA over the past few years, I was just assumed that they just suck at assessing who the best player was.
 

Andy

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My impression was that the habs do try to pick BPA over the past few years, I was just assumed that they just suck at assessing who the best player was.
I believe McCarron and KK weren't consensus BPA at the time. Correct me if I am wrong, but that is what I remember.

To get back to Caufield, it's so silly that teams continue to make these sorts of mistakes at the draft table. A shot like that and the offensive instincts to use it can't be taught. Players can work on their athleticism, commitment, fitness, defensive game (though a little harder). But those instincts, those are rare.

The fear of size, especially in today's game is so ridiculous.
 
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salbutera

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My impression was that the habs do try to pick BPA over the past few years, I was just assumed that they just suck at assessing who the best player was.
Habs have often tried to pick the BPA for a given position of need which resulted in David Fisher (need for RDman), Tinordi (need of big body Dman), Galchenyuk (need for C but he was consensus 3OA the org lucked out), McCarron (need for big bodied forward), Juulsen (need for RDman but again he was consensus pick at draft position)
 

26Mats

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Habs have often tried to pick the BPA for a given position of need which resulted in David Fisher (need for RDman), Tinordi (need of big body Dman), Galchenyuk (need for C but he was consensus 3OA the org lucked out), McCarron (need for big bodied forward), Juulsen (need for RDman but again he was consensus pick at draft position)

It doesn't matter who the consensus pick is by the outside world. It doesn't matter who the BPA is for a given need.

Habs need to pick the BPA according to their list, regardless of position or need and regardless of anyone else's list.
 
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dinodebino

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My impression was that the habs do try to pick BPA over the past few years, I was just assumed that they just suck at assessing who the best player was.
Not for KK. They picked for need. They had done the same previously (McCarron for one, or when they went full defencemen for a full draft).
 
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dinodebino

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Habs have often tried to pick the BPA for a given position of need which resulted in David Fisher (need for RDman), Tinordi (need of big body Dman), Galchenyuk (need for C but he was consensus 3OA the org lucked out), McCarron (need for big bodied forward), Juulsen (need for RDman but again he was consensus pick at draft position)
And KK.
 
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