Trevor Timmins Discussion (Part 10)

[montreal]

What I'm saying is that we should lay off the hype train until we can see what they can actually do in the NHL. I get it though, some people are passionate about our prospects. This is clearly a passion for you. But in the end, we know almost next to nothing until we can see what they can actually do in the big leagues. I get that some people like to discuss them, and that's fine, I just personally see zero value in such discussions or projections until we can see what they do in the NHL after a few years.

And if history is an indicator, most of our prospects fail to live up to the hype. Does that mean they all do? Or that it's always going to be the case? No. But it's a trend, and trends have *some* predictive value, especially when they're attached to a root cause.

And the mediocrity of this franchise isn't solely on Timmins obviously. It's on Molson, it's on Bergevin, and it's on Timmins, the guy who's been here longer than both of them, with very little to show for it.

As long as those three guys are there, this franchise is going nowhere.

So you think the most passionate fanbase in all of hockey should just not talk about the fact that a kid in his age 19 season is dominating the NCAA or that 2020 draft 4th round Farrell that's having one of the best USHL seasons in some time, etc... that they should just what ignore it? You honestly think this fan base would do that or should do that? The bigger question is why does it bother you when you agreed that not all prospects are the same, so what happened in the past doesn't mean it will happen again since these are totally different prospects.

Everyone should know that prospects are just that, until they show what they can do there's nothing to say they will make it or not. But when so many are doing so well, there's no stopping posters from talking about them, from getting excited. Yes it could backfire or it could mean we are setup for years to come, only time will tell .

As for history, before MB they actually did live up to the hype, Price, Subban, Pac, McDonagh etc.. then MB came in and made so many terrible decisions. He hired a coach that NEVER was a head coach at ANY level and put him in charge of our prospects. He brought back MT, Julien only to fire both, 2 guys that were dinosaurs trying to win 2-1 games and mold players into mindless grinders that dump and chase. Putting skilled players like Galchenyuk, Scherbak on the 4th line to make them better people.

Now we have a legit coach in the AHL that actually was a head coach before we hired him. He's got his team in 1st place, playing great structured hockey, the prospects there are playing great. It's the first time MB hasn't rushed these kids to the NHL after we saw how stupid it was to call up a 20 year old center last year that had just been benched in the AHL, or to put Fleury in the NHL and then have him sit for long periods or to call up a 20 year old goalie that just gave up 14 goals in 3 games against AHLers and have him face the best offense in the NHL for his first ever NHL game. You can't make this stuff up, it's been years of bad decision after bad decision.

But he made Caufield go back to the NCAA and he's doing great, has shown a lot of improvement. He so far hasn't called up Poehling or Brook or Ylonen or Teasdale despite them playing well. In the past he's yo-yod the prospects, hopefully he's learned a lesson and at least so far he hasn't do it this year.

As for where this franchise is going, NONE of us know that because you can't know the future. If KK and Suzuki turn into 70 pt players, now maybe that doesn't happen but we can't know if they will or won't. If they do then that's huge. What does Caufield turn into? We know he's going to be in the NHL but he could be great or he could suck. No one knows. So just because many of us don't like MB or Molson or others that don't like Timmins, we can't know that the franchise is going nowhere. Sure we can think it and it's understandable as look at the job they have done in the past, but that doesn't mean they can't get better.

 

[HotPie]

So you think the most passionate fanbase in all of hockey should just not talk about the fact that a kid in his age 19 season is dominating the NCAA or that 2020 draft 4th round Farrell that's having one of the best USHL seasons in some time, etc... that they should just what ignore it? You honestly think this fan base would do that or should do that? The bigger question is why does it bother you when you agreed that not all prospects are the same, so what happened in the past doesn't mean it will happen again since these are totally different prospects.

Everyone should know that prospects are just that, until they show what they can do there's nothing to say they will make it or not. But when so many are doing so well, there's no stopping posters from talking about them, from getting excited. Yes it could backfire or it could mean we are setup for years to come, only time will tell .

As for history, before MB they actually did live up to the hype, Price, Subban, Pac, McDonagh etc.. then MB came in and made so many terrible decisions. He hired a coach that NEVER was a head coach at ANY level and put him in charge of our prospects. He brought back MT, Julien only to fire both, 2 guys that were dinosaurs trying to win 2-1 games and mold players into mindless grinders that dump and chase. Putting skilled players like Galchenyuk, Scherbak on the 4th line to make them better people.

Now we have a legit coach in the AHL that actually was a head coach before we hired him. He's got his team in 1st place, playing great structured hockey, the prospects there are playing great. It's the first time MB hasn't rushed these kids to the NHL after we saw how stupid it was to call up a 20 year old center last year that had just been benched in the AHL, or to put Fleury in the NHL and then have him sit for long periods or to call up a 20 year old goalie that just gave up 14 goals in 3 games against AHLers and have him face the best offense in the NHL for his first ever NHL game. You can't make this stuff up, it's been years of bad decision after bad decision.

But he made Caufield go back to the NCAA and he's doing great, has shown a lot of improvement. He so far hasn't called up Poehling or Brook or Ylonen or Teasdale despite them playing well. In the past he's yo-yod the prospects, hopefully he's learned a lesson and at least so far he hasn't do it this year.

As for where this franchise is going, NONE of us know that because you can't know the future. If KK and Suzuki turn into 70 pt players, now maybe that doesn't happen but we can't know if they will or won't. If they do then that's huge. What does Caufield turn into? We know he's going to be in the NHL but he could be great or he could suck. No one knows. So just because many of us don't like MB or Molson or others that don't like Timmins, we can't know that the franchise is going nowhere. Sure we can think it and it's understandable as look at the job they have done in the past, but that doesn't mean they can't get better.

It's not that I don't think we shouldn't talk about our current prospects. It's that it has zero value in the context of discussing Timmins, because we have absolutely no idea how any of them will perform in the NHL yet, even guys like Kotkaniemi, but that's on me for not really clarifying that. But sure, people are allowed to be excited; people are allowed to feel however they want about our prospects. I personally don't find any value in it, but I can see how others do.

I have noticed a (weak) correlation between people who are really invested in our prospects, and their tendency to defend Timmins though...

As for the future of this franchise, I don't proclaim to actually know what will happen. I'm presupposing people understand that it's simply my opinion.

 

[montreal]

It's not that I don't think we shouldn't talk about our current prospects. It's that it has zero value in the context of discussing Timmins, because we have absolutely no idea how any of them will perform in the NHL yet, even guys like Kotkaniemi, but that's on me for not really clarifying that. But sure, people are allowed to be excited; people are allowed to feel however they want about our prospects. I personally don't find any value in it, but I can see how others do.

As for the future of this franchise, I don't proclaim to actually know what will happen. I'm presupposing people understand that it's simply my opinion.

when you say that if these guys stay here the organization is going nowhere, of course we know that's your opinion but the point is you can't know that since non of us know what KK, Suzuki, Romanov, Caufield, etc... will turn into. I can understand thinking we won't go anywhere under a Molson/MB tenure since look where it's gotten us. At least Timmins drafted Price, Subban, Pac, McDonagh but even I can understand why people don't trust him, or think we can never win if he's here as he's clearly made some big mistakes.

I mean I hate Molson and don't care for MB but I have no clue what will happen to this organization. I don't trust them to build a contender but I know it can happen.

 

[abo9]

I never said they were. I'm just saying it's not the first time we've hyped up prospects only for it to backfire. In fact, I'd say that's probably closer to the norm around here.

But yes, let's keep defending the guy who's been nothing but mediocre for the past twenty years. Even the best argument for Timmins, the "quantity vs. quality" or "Games Played" argument fails under actual scrutiny, but okay. He had a few good years early in his career with the Habs, good enough.

Let's stay mediocre I guess.

It's just funny because the people who defend him would never extend the same courtesy as they would towards coaches/management. It's dishonest.

Not that I'm saying you're necessarily defending Timmins, although that is how many of your posts come across.

It's kinda a tough situation right now though, because Lefebvre AND a lack of picks were blamed for the previous "crop" of young players - absolving Timmins of responsibility. And right before that he hit the lottery with a McDonagh/Patch/Subban draft.

I believe that we'll have an answer soon though. With the amount of draft picks and a (supposedly) quality AHL coach, you would at minimum expect a few core players to emerge from that 2018-2021 crops. I'd even say that we should expect at least 1 or 2 elite players to come out of them (they might be Suzuki and Kotkaniemi but they're not there yet). and with the way the NHL goes, we should not have to wait until they're 27 years old, it's gonna show as soon as 22-23.

If none of them make it past "bona-fide" 2nd liners, or #3-4 D, we know we have to can Timmins FOR SURE.
That's not to say that there is no reason to can him right now, but I think even the biggest Timmins defenders would have to change stance if that's the case.

 

[CheldishGamibno]

There was a thread on the main board about the 2015 draft. Habs don't even have 1 player on the 1st team nor the 2nd team. That's 40 players from probably the best draft ever.
Team 2015 draft

People still on Timmins' hype train blows my mind. I know it wasn't just on Timmins but on Bergevin too, they only had 5 picks but when you have great prospects scouts, you make sure to get more picks incoming for a rich draft. Can't wait 'til this management era ends.

 

[DAChampion]

There was a thread on the main board about the 2015 draft. Habs don't even have 1 player on the 1st team nor the 2nd team. That's 40 players from probably the best draft ever.
Team 2015 draft

People still on Timmins' hype train blows my mind. I know it wasn't just on Timmins but on Bergevin too, they only had 5 picks but when you have great prospects scouts, you make sure to get more picks incoming for a rich draft. Can't wait 'til this management era ends.

Timmins isn't the reason that Juulsen suffered significant injuries.Timmins' second pick that year was Vejdemo, at 87th overall.

Bergevin invested the second rounder that year into the Petry trade, which has worked out fabulously.

Can you see why Timmins' didn't draft McDavid and Barzal, and by extension, why your argument is crap?

 

[CheldishGamibno]

Timmins isn't the reason that Juulsen suffered significant injuries.Timmins' second pick that year was Vejdemo, at 87th overall.

Bergevin invested the second rounder that year into the Petry trade, which has worked out fabulously.

Can you see why Timmins' didn't draft McDavid and Barzal, and by extension, why your argument is crap?

Did I say somewhere our draft sucked because we didn't draft McDavid and Barzal?
Just check once again which players were drafted after Vejdemo (carreer AHLer), Bradley (carreer ECHLer), Bourque (carreer France league player), Addison (retired).
Crap, crap, crap and crap. Not even a 4th liner somehwere. If you draft carreer ECHLers it pretty much means your scouting departement has some problems, right?

Good news is, from 2017 to now, scouting departement looks like it has improved a bit so credit where it's due. Still too early to tell though.

You just can't defend the management team when you look at where the Habs are right now.

 

[montreal]

There was a thread on the main board about the 2015 draft. Habs don't even have 1 player on the 1st team nor the 2nd team. That's 40 players from probably the best draft ever.
Team 2015 draft

People still on Timmins' hype train blows my mind. I know it wasn't just on Timmins but on Bergevin too, they only had 5 picks but when you have great prospects scouts, you make sure to get more picks incoming for a rich draft. Can't wait 'til this management era ends.

Juulsen will be an NHLer if he can stay healthy, just a question of how good, he was handled very poorly as he had no business being in the NHL at 20 and then there's all the lost development time.

But I don't know what people expect from picking,

26th
87th
131st
171st
207th

maybe Vejdemo can turn into a 4th liner but having 1 pick in the top 86 is f***ing brutal.

The problem is people can't separate the past from the current. Before MB we drafted and developed a bunch of NHLers. Then MB comes in and we can't draft or develop for shit. Now our system is looking the best it's ever looked, what that turns into no one knows yet. They could have fired him, they didn't, instead they promoted him and then gave him a shit ton of picks.

Now you have not only 1 of the best prospects not in the NHL, but one of the best U-20 players in the last 20 years in the NCAA. You have a 19 year old dominating the USHL, you have one of the best defensemen in the NCAA, you have one of the best U-20 defensemen in the NCAA, you have one of the best goal scoring U-21 defense in the SHL, Brook in 16 games has almost as many assists as last year and is on pace for 43 pts (yes small sample size) after getting 13 in 60 as a 20 year old. Ylonen is looking great in Laval.

So should we just sit around talking about how terrible Molson, MB, Timmins, MT, Julien, Lefebvre have been or do we hope that MB has finally started to figure out how to not be so terrible at development, he's actually hired a head coach for our AHL team that had actual head coaching experience prior to being hired, a first for MB. Our AHL team is in 1st place, the prospects are playing great for the most part despite how young and inexperienced the backend is. The CHLers that have played all impressed or were very impressive.

Now that doesn't mean anything, we could bust on every one of them, the odds of that aren't good imo but only time will tell. Yes Timmins made a lot of mistakes, as did MB and Molson just sat there. We are either about to get a new GM or he's going to stick around, if we get a new GM maybe Timmins is gone, who knows. But for now he's here, the prospects are looking great, Bouchard is doing a great job.

 

[CheldishGamibno]

Juulsen will be an NHLer if he can stay healthy, just a question of how good, he was handled very poorly as he had no business being in the NHL at 20 and then there's all the lost development time.

But I don't know what people expect from picking,

26th
87th
131st
171st
207th

maybe Vejdemo can turn into a 4th liner but having 1 pick in the top 86 is f***ing brutal.

The problem is people can't separate the past from the current. Before MB we drafted and developed a bunch of NHLers. Then MB comes in and we can't draft or develop for shit. Now our system is looking the best it's ever looked, what that turns into no one knows yet. They could have fired him, they didn't, instead they promoted him and then gave him a shit ton of picks.

Now you have not only 1 of the best prospects not in the NHL, but one of the best U-20 players in the last 20 years in the NCAA. You have a 19 year old dominating the USHL, you have one of the best defensemen in the NCAA, you have one of the best U-20 defensemen in the NCAA, you have one of the best goal scoring U-21 defense in the SHL, Brook in 16 games has almost as many assists as last year and is on pace for 43 pts (yes small sample size) after getting 13 in 60 as a 20 year old. Ylonen is looking great in Laval.

So should we just sit around talking about how terrible Molson, MB, Timmins, MT, Julien, Lefebvre have been or do we hope that MB has finally started to figure out how to not be so terrible at development, he's actually hired a head coach for our AHL team that had actual head coaching experience prior to being hired, a first for MB. Our AHL team is in 1st place, the prospects are playing great for the most part despite how young and inexperienced the backend is. The CHLers that have played all impressed or were very impressive.

Now that doesn't mean anything, we could bust on every one of them, the odds of that aren't good imo but only time will tell. Yes Timmins made a lot of mistakes, as did MB and Molson just sat there. We are either about to get a new GM or he's going to stick around, if we get a new GM maybe Timmins is gone, who knows. But for now he's here, the prospects are looking great, Bouchard is doing a great job.

Of course I agree with that and like my latest post said "Good news is, from 2017 to now, scouting departement looks like it has improved a bit so credit where it's due. Still too early to tell though."

I can't wait to see how these promising prospects will develop but I'm not getting my hopes up, that's what I did for the last 20 years only to be let down over and over again.

 

[MaynardJames]

Did I say somewhere our draft sucked because we didn't draft McDavid and Barzal?
Just check once again which players were drafted after Vejdemo (carreer AHLer), Bradley (carreer ECHLer), Bourque (carreer France league player), Addison (retired).
Crap, crap, crap and crap. Not even a 4th liner somehwere. If you draft carreer ECHLers it pretty much means your scouting departement has some problems, right?

Good news is, from 2017 to now, scouting departement looks like it has improved a bit so credit where it's due. Still too early to tell though.

You just can't defend the management team when you look at where the Habs are right now.

If Timmins sucked that much there must be a dozen excellent pick after Vejdermo ? Can you name 5 ? Other than Conor Garland ?

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Recent Timmins' draftees doing well this year:

Jesperi Kotkaniemi
Jake Evans
Alex Romanov
Ryan Poehling
Kaiden Guhle
Jesse Ylonen
Josh Brook
Cole Caulfield
Jordan Harris

#FireTimmims ... Or rather, don't.

What's happening now is exactly what Timmins' defenders like myself predicted. A few years following the Therrien-Lefebvre era, the prospect pool is improving.

There's a credible case that the Habs could have 3+ effective rookies on the next year.

And the situation might be even better the following year.

Sergavchev would qualify here as well btw.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

We never had promising kids with Laval under Lefebvre though, Leblanc and Scherbak were hopeless as far as Im concerned... But of course, I really like Bouchard and Im not underrating the great job he is doing with our kids, he sure is a highly competent coach...

Leblanc was drafted right where he was projected. If he was drafted elsewhere he'd probably have had a decent career.

Our development sucked. Full stop. And you only have to look at what's happening with KK to see this. It was like a light turned on as soon as that coach went away. We had an entire generation of prospects f***ed over by idiots.

Does that mean that Timmins is off the hook? No. But you can't ignore the absolute shit we've had here and sluff it off on drafting. Some of us predicted that it would improve when those dumbasses moved on and that's exactly what I think we're going to see. It's already happening now.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

What I'm saying is that we should lay off the hype train until we can see what they can actually do in the NHL.

You seem to just attribute it to drafting though.

Fact is that we actually did have some good prospects. We just f***ed them up. We got the absolute least out of them that we could. That part is not on Timmins.

Now you can go back and (justifiably) bash him for some bad picks. That's fair enough. But there's no way in God's green earth that some of those kids couldn't have done better than they did. We just had the twin towers of idiots coaching at the minor and major league level. It's not surprising at all that it turned into a gong show for us.

 

[montreal]

If Timmins sucked that much there must be a dozen excellent pick after Vejdermo ? Can you name 5 ? Other than Conor Garland ?

2015 NHL Entry Draft Picks at hockeydb.com

there's a lot since Vejdemo is a guy that perhaps next year can be if not a 4th liner then a spare forward for us. Right now he's got 1 pt in 7 games so it's very easy to beat. Cleary Rockstrom has been shit for us but thankfully their hired a new Swedish scout that got us Norlinder.

2015 looks like shit for Timmins, if not for the injuries Juulsen likely looks a good bit better and I think he will find his way in the NHL over the next year or two. But even then and even if Vejdemo can be something like a DLR, it's a massive fail. Just that to me with so few picks, 1 top 86 pick, it's not as bad. Of course you would expect Timmins to still find more then Juulsen despite the shitty picks he had, I just don't blame a scout when he fails after being put in such a shitty position other then they shouldn't have went safe after drafting Scherbak, McCarron, Galchenyuk before that. Beauvillier being a local stings.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

It's kinda a tough situation right now though, because Lefebvre AND a lack of picks were blamed for the previous "crop" of young players - absolving Timmins of responsibility. And right before that he hit the lottery with a McDonagh/Patch/Subban draft.

Notice though that McD, Patch and Subban were developed before MT came in.

What if we'd had him? You think Subban becomes the player he does? I don't. You think Max develops under him? No. He wasn't a "grinder" and didn't fit the mold.

Notice how as soon as those guys came in everything suddenly died. Do you think that's coincidence?

(Hint: It's not)

 

[CheldishGamibno]

If Timmins sucked that much there must be a dozen excellent pick after Vejdermo ? Can you name 5 ? Other than Conor Garland ?

It literally takes 2 seconds to check on google for the 2015 list.
I invite you to go check and judge for yourself.

 

[26Mats]

Did I say somewhere our draft sucked because we didn't draft McDavid and Barzal?
Just check once again which players were drafted after Vejdemo (carreer AHLer), Bradley (carreer ECHLer), Bourque (carreer France league player), Addison (retired).
Crap, crap, crap and crap. Not even a 4th liner somehwere. If you draft carreer ECHLers it pretty much means your scouting departement has some problems, right?

Good news is, from 2017 to now, scouting departement looks like it has improved a bit so credit where it's due. Still too early to tell though.

You just can't defend the management team when you look at where the Habs are right now.

How is 2016 not looking like a good draft?

With no 2nd round pick, we came away with Sergachev and Mete.

 

[montreal]

It literally takes 2 seconds to check on google for the 2015 list.
I invite you to go check and judge for yourself.

i posted the list a few posts up.

 

[CheldishGamibno]

How is 2016 not looking like a good draft?

With no 2nd round pick, we came away with Sergachev and Mete.

Sergachev is a fine pick but it's to be expected when you pick at 9.
Mete is a 7th D, not an impact player and probably won't play for the Habs in 2 years anyways. That 2016 draft class was very poor after the 2nd round, I won't blame Timmins on that one.

 

[26Mats]

Sergachev is a fine pick but it's to be expected when you pick at 9.
Mete is a 7th D, not an impact player and probably won't play for the Habs in 2 years anyways. That 2016 draft class was very poor after the 2nd round, I won't blame Timmins on that one.

Jesse Puljarvi, Oli Juolevi, and alex Nylander were selected before Sergachev. Tyson Jost, Logan Brown, Michael McCloud, and Jack Bean were selected right afterwards.

Hitting on your lottery pick is the most important part of a draft. Plus getting a Victor Mete in the 4th round, when you don't have a 2nd round pick, makes the 2016 draft a great draft.

(Plus that was the year TT was talking up Samuep Girard PRE-DRAFT) . If only MB hadn't traded away our two 2nds for Shaw...

 

[CheldishGamibno]

Jesse Puljarvi, Oli Juolevi, and alex Nylander were selected before Sergachev. Tyson Jost, Logan Brown, Michael McCloud, and Jack Bean were selected right afterwards.

Hitting on your lottery pick is the most important part of a draft. Plus getting a Victor Mete in the 4th round, when you don't have a 2nd round pick, makes the 2016 draft a great draft.

I mean, I respect your opinion but you can look for yourself how many players on the roster were drafted by the Habs, you can't built a good team if you can't develop and draft well.
Like I said earlier, it's looking good from 2017 to now so credit where's it's due. Too early to tell though.

 

[26Mats]

I mean, I respect your opinion but you can look for yourself how many players on the roster were drafted by the Habs, you can't built a good team if you can't develop and draft well.
Like I said earlier, it's looking good from 2017 to now so credit where's it's due. Too early to tell though.

Not sure what that has to do with how the scouting department did in 2016.

 

[CheldishGamibno]

Not sure what that has to do with how the scouting department did in 2016.

Not sure why you included the 2016 draft class when I clearly wrote about the 2015 draft class + from 2017 to now.
I can't blame that 2016 draft class on Timmins because that draft class was poor after the 2nd round anyways. Drafting 1 quality player in over 10 yrs (Sergachev) won't change anything about my arguments. I don't want to hear "but Caufield, but KK, but Ylonen, etc.".
Once KK is an established top 2 C and once Caufield and Ylonen are quality players in the NHL, I will give the credit to Timmins and his team.

 

[26Mats]

Not sure why you included the 2016 draft class when I clearly wrote about the 2015 draft class + from 2017 to now.
I can't blame that 2016 draft class on Timmins because that draft class was poor after the 2nd round anyways. Drafting 1 quality player in over 10 yrs (Sergachev) won't change anything about my arguments. I don't want to hear "but Caufield, but KK, but Ylonen, etc.".
Once KK is an established top 2 C and once Caufield and Ylonen are quality players in the NHL, I will give the credit to Timmins and his team.

Oh my bad, I only saw 2017 and was wondering why not include 2016.

 

[abo9]

Notice though that McD, Patch and Subban were developed before MT came in.

What if we'd had him? You think Subban becomes the player he does? I don't. You think Max develops under him? No. He wasn't a "grinder" and didn't fit the mold.

Notice how as soon as those guys came in everything suddenly died. Do you think that's coincidence?

(Hint: It's not)

To answer your question, yes I think they still all become the players they became, especially McD and Subban who just took 1 year in the pros to be solid.

I think they just got plain-old lucky in that draft. Notice how the 2008 was crap, or even the 2006 one? Same development team as the duo you mentioned. The core of that team for a while were guys drafted before he came in. The core after were the 3 lucky picks he made in 1 season, but he failed to draft anything semi-good to surround them.