Friedman: Treliving doesn't want to move the core 4, wants to focus on defense.

[Peter Griffin]

The Catch 22 is the Leafs can’t extend Matthews until July 1st. And his NMC starts the same day. Clearly AM wanted that control in his contract. He, by contract, can’t sign until July 1. And after that he can then refuse any trade.
Matthews is 100% in control of where he signs in July 1, 2024.

Yea but realistically, no team is trading for him without a contract already in place anyway, just like Tkachuk.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

How does a 25 goal scoring 100 point defenseman sound to you? lol

That depends on the money being retained and/or going back

 

[Fatass]

Yea but realistically, no team is trading for him without a contract already in place anyway, just like Tkachuk.

And suitors for Matthews can’t negotiate a new contract with him until July 1st. So unless the Leafs trade him before July 1st it’s highly likely he plays out his contract and becomes a UFA in 2024. Treliving is in a very difficult spot. Any return for Matthews, considering his contract status, might be underwhelming.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

That depends on the money being retained and/or going back

At a minimum, it sounds like 18% retention would be there. I just don't know what kind of asset the Leafs can throw our way to make it worth it.

 

[Nuckster]

Matthews can move on his own after next season and Trev can’t stop him.

No one is asking

Who is the Core 4?

Matthews
Marner
Reilly
Nylander or Tavares?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

No one is asking

Who is the Core 4?

Matthews
Marner
Reilly
Nylander or Tavares?

Nobody is asking because the answer is known.

 

[Nuckster]

And suitors for Matthews can’t negotiate a new contract with him until July 1st. So unless the Leafs trade him before July 1st it’s highly likely he plays out his contract and becomes a UFA in 2024. Treliving is in a very difficult spot. Any return for Matthews, considering his contract status, might be underwhelming.

Agreed, but rumour is Matthews will sign a 2, 3 or 4 year deal. This makes sense as the cap is expected to go up 4-5 mil in 2024 and 2025 seasons, 2026 who knows. But if the cap goes up another 4-5 in 2026 that's 15 mil more on the cap.

If he's taking a % of cap of say 16% similar to McDavid, that's an extra 2.5 mil per year on his contract.

My guess is he signs a 2 year deal. So he has this coming season and 2 more, then see's where it goes with the Leafs and at 28 he's a UFA and can still get term and a huge deal to go somewhere else.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

At a minimum, it sounds like 18% retention would be there. I just don't know what kind of asset the Leafs can throw our way to make it worth it.

I mean it starts with the 2023 1st.

My question is what could he realistically get? I mean that's A LOT of money even at 18% retained

 

[Nuckster]

Nobody is asking because the answer is known.

I'm asking because I know who it "should be" but from what I recall Tavares has a NMC

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Agreed, but rumour is Matthews will sign a 2, 3 or 4 year deal. This makes sense as the cap is expected to go up 4-5 mil in 2024 and 2025 seasons, 2026 who knows. But if the cap goes up another 4-5 in 2026 that's 15 mil more on the cap.

If he's taking a % of cap of say 16% similar to McDavid, that's an extra 2.5 mil per year on his contract.

My guess is he signs a 2 year deal. So he has this coming season and 2 more, then see's where it goes with the Leafs and at 28 he's a UFA and can still get term and a huge deal to go somewhere else.

There has never been a rumor of a 2 year deal, at least not from a credible source.

It's most commonly been 4 or 5

 

[Nuckster]

There has never been a rumor of a 2 year deal, at least not from a credible source.

It's most commonly been 4 or 5

I've heard 3-4 on Merrick and Freidman. Given the cap changes I can see him going 2 simply because that's 3 more years in Toronto and being a UFA at 28 vs 29 can make a difference, as silly as that is.

It's just math. Maximizing value for him would be to sign long term after the cap has run up and he's still seen as "not old". If he waits to 30 he may not get as much term at the higher amount. He's basically forgoing 2 years of more money.

 

[super6646]

Hanifin for nylander… please

 

[Peter Griffin]

And suitors for Matthews can’t negotiate a new contract with him until July 1st. So unless the Leafs trade him before July 1st it’s highly likely he plays out his contract and becomes a UFA in 2024. Treliving is in a very difficult spot. Any return for Matthews, considering his contract status, might be underwhelming.

Yes, my point was no team is likely to trade for Matthews without an agreed upon contract, ie: a team Matthews is willing to go to longterm. Just like Tkachuk who could’ve easily taken his QO and walked into UFA.

 

[Fatass]

Yes, my point was no team is likely to trade for Matthews without an agreed upon contract, ie: a team Matthews is willing to go to longterm. Just like Tkachuk who could’ve easily taken his QO and walked into UFA.

But Matthews negotiated his contract as it is, with a NMC starting July 1,2023 and a term that takes him to free agency, for a purpose. He could wait to July 1, 2023 and then have teams bid for him. That could push his cap allocation to 15 mil.

 

[Peter Griffin]

But Matthews negotiated his contract as it is, with a NMC starting July 1,2023 and a term that takes him to free agency, for a purpose. He could wait to July 1, 2023 and then have teams bid for him. That could push his cap allocation to 15 mil.

Yes but he can also say, I’ll agree to go to team x, y or z and sign long term. He doesn’t need to go to UFA and have teams “bid on him”, he’s getting whatever contract he wants regardless. I agree that the NMC obviously prevents Toronto from trading him to any team, but realistically that’s not going to happen anyway as they’ll get maximum value from trading him to a team he actually wants to go to and sign with. He also is limited to a 7 year deal if he goes to UFA.

 

[notbias]

How does a 25 goal scoring 100 point defenseman sound to you? lol

Terrible, then we'd talking about how we need more defense next year.

 

[Phion Keneuf]

No one is asking

Who is the Core 4?

Matthews
Marner
Reilly
Nylander or Tavares?

Core 4 refers to our core 4 forwards.

Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares

Rielly is absolutely a core piece, but core 4 refers to the forwards.

 

[notbias]

Agreed, but rumour is Matthews will sign a 2, 3 or 4 year deal. This makes sense as the cap is expected to go up 4-5 mil in 2024 and 2025 seasons, 2026 who knows. But if the cap goes up another 4-5 in 2026 that's 15 mil more on the cap.

If he's taking a % of cap of say 16% similar to McDavid, that's an extra 2.5 mil per year on his contract.

My guess is he signs a 2 year deal. So he has this coming season and 2 more, then see's where it goes with the Leafs and at 28 he's a UFA and can still get term and a huge deal to go somewhere else.

Friedman said 3-6 years. My guess is he doesn't want to do this again in two years.

 

[John Mandalorian]

That is incorrect. MacKinnon signed a very team-friendly deal at the time -- most of the hockey community was openly vocal about it. And he literally just won a Stanley Cup, is scoring at a pace above Auston Matthews, and signed a long-term deal for 12.6. If Matthews (who hasn't accomplished what MacKinnon has, or hasn't shown to be nearly as dedicated) would "settle for" 12.6 x 7, we'd all consider that a bargain. Instead, Matthews will likely demand 14 million on a very short 3-4 year term. So how can you possibly say with a straight face that "MacKinnon doesn't care about winning" after...

A. He did win a Cup. Right after publicly challenging his own teammates to get in peak shape and take their diets more seriously.

B. He signed long-term for about 1.5 million less than what Matthews (who didn't accomplish what he did) is likely going to demand?

The fact is, after winning a Cup, MacKinnon could easily have demanded 14-14.5 from the Avs but he didn't. So, why on earth should Matthews? In fact, what has Matthews done -- other than disappoint in the playoffs -- that justifies him making more money than Nate MacKinnon?

Not only that but once the cap goes up more substantially, the way these recent deals are viewed will likely be affected. The MacKinnon deal was signed knowing that for a big part of it, the cap will have increased. So, even if you don’t believe he took a discount in 2022, you have to ask yourself about it 2 or 3 years from now.

 

[Leaf Fans]

And suitors for Matthews can’t negotiate a new contract with him until July 1st. So unless the Leafs trade him before July 1st it’s highly likely he plays out his contract and becomes a UFA in 2024. Treliving is in a very difficult spot. Any return for Matthews, considering his contract status, might be underwhelming.

They can sign him after July 1. Why is it highly likely that he becomes a UFA in 2024? Clearly it is possible though.

 

[Fatass]

Yes but he can also say, I’ll agree to go to team x, y or z and sign long term. He doesn’t need to go to UFA and have teams “bid on him”, he’s getting whatever contract he wants regardless. I agree that the NMC obviously prevents Toronto from trading him to any team, but realistically that’s not going to happen anyway as they’ll get maximum value from trading him to a team he actually wants to go to and sign with. He also is limited to a 7 year deal if he goes to UFA.

Maybe Matthews doesn’t want to go to the club offering Treliving the best return though? Maybe he would much rather just wait until July 1, 2024 and he picks? Like I wrote previously, there’s a reason why he had his contract set up this way. And imo it’s so he can control (after July 1, 2023) his getting to UFA status and determine his city. He will get a lot of bidders. 15 per for his term and with his conditions.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Maybe Matthews doesn’t want to go to the club offering Treliving the best return though? Maybe he would much rather just wait until July 1, 2024 and he picks? Like I wrote previously, there’s a reason why he had his contract set up this way. And imo it’s so he can control (after July 1, 2023) his getting to UFA status and determine his city. He will get a lot of bidders. 15 per for his term and with his conditions.

His contract was setup like that because it was literally the first year he was eligible for a NMC. He also could’ve been a UFA this offseason as well , he never had to agree to sign a 5 year extension coming off his ELC.

I think you’re misunderstanding what I’m saying. If Matthews is traded, it’s very unlikely it will be to a team that rents him for a year. Any team paying the assets Toronto will want in return will want assurances that he’s staying longterm, meaning it will be a team Matthews is interested in going to. So, if Matthews is dealt, I imagine it would be with his consent, to go to a team that he would sign with long term, meaning the NMC really isn’t something that’s going to prevent a trade.

 

[Fatass]

His contract was setup like that because it was literally the first year he was eligible for a NMC. He also could’ve been a UFA this offseason as well , he never had to agree to sign a 5 year extension coming off his ELC.

I think you’re misunderstanding what I’m saying. If Matthews is traded, it’s very unlikely it will be to a team that rents him for a year. Any team paying the assets Toronto will want in return will want assurances that he’s staying longterm, meaning it will be a team Matthews is interested in going to. So, if Matthews is dealt, I imagine it would be with his consent, to go to a team that he would sign with long term, meaning the NMC really isn’t something that’s going to prevent a trade.

I mostly agree. Yreliving is going to trade Matthews befor that no move class kicks in July 1 st. The acquaint team will be hopeful they can extend him. But even after he’s traded (imo) Matthews will still choose free agency July 1, 2024.

 

[biturbo19]

My completely uneducated guess is that Dubas wanted to move Matthews and/or Marner, and orders came down from up top to keep the core together.

Ya know, rebuilding makes hockey sense, but not money sense. So Dubas got the boot, and they brought in a guy who will keep plugging away with this core while they're still competitive and marketable.

That's my take on it

Interesting notion.

I'm not sure i see it entirely the same way though. It'd certainly explain this reported desire to keep the "Core-4" together from Treliving though.


When an outgoing GM gets those rumors of a "rift" with management, it's always a curious situation. Gillis on his way out of Vancouver was the same. Allegedly he wanted to "rebuild" and management wouldn't let him. Then the new guy came in and didn't "rebuild" at all either. But Gillis was also able to make huge trades like dealing Schneider for the Horvat pick. So it's hard to say he didn't have leeway in that regard...

It'll be fascinating no matter what, to see how the Leafs offseason shakes out.

 

[Michoulicious]

So, not trading the core 4, keeping Keefe.

Great recipe. Let's see how it goes, never been tried before!