Blue Jays Discussion: Trades and Signings - Pitchers Market is Heating Up

[Blitzkrug]

The one thing that might elevate the Sox is the division they play in.

Outside of Detroit, it's pretty meh. KC won't be as good next year, Minnesota still kind of sucks, Cleveland is eh. Might be just enough to put them on the fringe of a wild card.

 

[weems]

I really hope we can somehow get Smoak to untap his potential. Kid definitely has the talent to be a really good player. At least he should be a nice upgrade defensively at 1B compared to EE/Lind.

 

[dredeye]

That looks like it is based on standings so it seems the Jays would be locked into the 31st spot unless they sign one of the players available who declined a qualifying offer (Shields/Scherzer) in which they then lose this pick (according to nicholson-smith).

Wouldn't we just lose our second? I thought the comp was a locked in pic even if we signed another big player which I'm sure we won't be anyway

 

[ryno23]

The bigger ballpark will take number on his offensive numbers, he squeaked many HR's and ground rule doubles in Rogers Centre last year and in Chicago those are outs or maybe just singles off the wall because of his speed. Add in the much bigger negative impact playing in a larger LF will have and he will probably regress back to just a 1ish WAR player.

Who cares what his War will regress to. This another example of using WAR and it doesn't relate nothing to what the impact this player will have on his new team.

If he produces same offensive numbers minus a few homers but more doubles who cares or it hose ground rule doubles turn into long singles who cares he is producing.

He solidifies the top of the order for the White Sox. His role in the 2 hole provides Eaton with a few more hittable pitches and Abreu has a guy in front of him who will get on base and be there to drive in.

Who knows what his D will look like in Chicago. Do we know how they shift in the field or how the pitchers pitch in that park. How much more ground does Eaton cover vs Rasmus or Gose. Are the white sox pitchers more ground ball vs fly ball pitchers


So many factors go into what a player will accomplish with a new team. Can't predict the future

 

[Eyedea]

Wouldn't we just lose our second? I thought the comp was a locked in pic even if we signed another big player which I'm sure we won't be anyway

Like I said, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith that is not the case.

 

[ryno23]

Like I said, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith that is not the case.

It's because the white sox already signed an FA that has a puck attached

 

[Eyedea]

Who cares what his War will regress to. This another example of using WAR and it doesn't relate nothing to what the impact this player will have on his new team.

If he produces same offensive numbers minus a few homers but more doubles who cares or it hose ground rule doubles turn into long singles who cares he is producing.

He solidifies the top of the order for the White Sox. His role in the 2 hole provides Eaton with a few more hittable pitches and Abreu has a guy in front of him who will get on base and be there to drive in.

Who knows what his D will look like in Chicago. Do we know how they shift in the field or how the pitchers pitch in that park. How much more ground does Eaton cover vs Rasmus or Gose. Are the white sox pitchers more ground ball vs fly ball pitchers


So many factors go into what a player will accomplish with a new team. Can't predict the future

We don't need WAR to realize that he is incredibly bad defensively. But of course moving to a bigger park will somehow make him better. As for his offense, look at Cano moving from Yankee Stadium to Safeco. His ISO dropped 70-100 points from his previous seasons and his OPS roughly the same too despite getting on base at a similar clip as his last two years. Melky can probably still survive as a hitter but he is a negative asset on defence.

It's because the white sox already signed an FA that has a puck attached

That holds no significance on where the Jays pick.

 

[canucksfan]

Who cares what his War will regress to. This another example of using WAR and it doesn't relate nothing to what the impact this player will have on his new team.

If it regresses to 1.0 then the Sox should care. They paid 13 mill a year for the guy to produce and having a 1.0 WAR season would suck.

If he produces same offensive numbers minus a few homers but more doubles who cares or it hose ground rule doubles turn into long singles who cares he is producing.

Coverting home runs to doubles and doubles to singles is not a good thing.

He solidifies the top of the order for the White Sox. His role in the 2 hole provides Eaton with a few more hittable pitches and Abreu has a guy in front of him who will get on base and be there to drive in.

Definitely.

Who knows what his D will look like in Chicago. Do we know how they shift in the field or how the pitchers pitch in that park. How much more ground does Eaton cover vs Rasmus or Gose. Are the white sox pitchers more ground ball vs fly ball pitchers

Melky's D will always suck if he is in the outfield. If he has to cover more ground then his D will get worse. Think of Fenway Park. You could put a plug in LF because there is very little ground to cover. The ballparks in the AL Central are much bigger which will result in Melky's value taking a hit because his defense sucks.

 

[canucksfan]

Kind of makes him look dumb imo. All that hold out and different suitors, and all you got was an extra 3 million?

Don't blame the Jays tho. He dicked around too long and AA went elsewhere to fill the hole. That's actually a good move imo.

I think AA was smart not to wait. It is similar to asking a girl out to the dance in high school. If she says give me a few days, well you ask out the next babe.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Like I said, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith that is not the case.

I tried looking at the past draft for a similar scenario. I noticed the Yankees signed 3 free agents with QO's, McCann, Ellsbury, Beltran.

However the Yankees highest pick was their 2nd rounder. Now if they signed 3 guys, they should have lost 3 picks. That leads me to believe they lost their 1st rounder, and 2 comp picks beceuase I'm not sure what else they could have lost. But I'm unsure if they had 2 comp picks, did they lost 2 guys they gave QO to? I can't remember?

 

[Eyedea]

The one thing that might elevate the Sox is the division they play in.

Outside of Detroit, it's pretty meh. KC won't be as good next year, Minnesota still kind of sucks, Cleveland is eh. Might be just enough to put them on the fringe of a wild card.

Cleveland looks good and probably has the most upside. Disagree.

 

[Eyedea]

I tried looking at the past draft for a similar scenario. I noticed the Yankees signed 3 free agents with QO's, McCann, Ellsbury, Beltran.

However the Yankees highest pick was their 2nd rounder. Now if they signed 3 guys, they should have lost 3 picks. That leads me to believe they lost their 1st rounder, and 2 comp picks beceuase I'm not sure what else they could have lost. But I'm unsure if they had 2 comp picks, did they lost 2 guys they gave QO to? I can't remember?

Yes they lost Cano and Granderson that same offseason.

 

[weems]

Cleveland looks good and probably has the most upside. Disagree.

I dont like the Indians pitching.

 

[Eyedea]

I dont like the Indians pitching.

Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar/House/Bauer

I like it a lot tbh. Maybe I'm bullish but Carrasco and Salazar have a lot to offer and Bauer still has potential.

 

[weems]

Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar/House/Bauer

I like it a lot tbh. Maybe I'm bullish but Carrasco and Salazar have a lot to offer and Bauer still has potential.

Ya it has alot of upside but also alot of uncertainty.

I also wouldnt expect Kluber to be as dominant next season.

Also the BP doesnt look all that great.

 

[ryno23]

If it regresses to 1.0 then the Sox should care. They paid 13 mill a year for the guy to produce and having a 1.0 WAR season would suck.



Coverting home runs to doubles and doubles to singles is not a good thing.



Definitely.



Melky's D will always suck if he is in the outfield. If he has to cover more ground then his D will get worse. Think of Fenway Park. You could put a plug in LF because there is very little ground to cover. The ballparks in the AL Central are much bigger which will result in Melky's value taking a hit because his defense sucks.

Your paying 13 million not for a person WAR score at latest I don't think GMs look at WAR only and say well your getting paid on WAR.

They look at the player fit, chemistry and standard stats and figure who he fits.

No matter where Melky plays hid D will be bad. Some parks will neutralize it but GM don't look at him for hid D skills it is his offence they are paying for.

Much like big Pappi he isn't paid for his D

 

[Eyedea]

Their BP is middle of the pack for sure, but I don't know I think that team can still hit 90 wins in that division even with a bit of a decline from Brantley and Kluber. I expect Kipnis to bounce back and even Swisher to provide at least league average compared to last year. Brandon Moss is another good bat that they brought in too. I think their biggest problem is that they are lefty heavy in the lineup.

 

[weems]

Your paying 13 million not for a person WAR score at latest I don't think GMs look at WAR only and say well your getting paid on WAR.

They look at the player fit, chemistry and standard stats and figure who he fits.

No matter where Melky plays hid D will be bad. Some parks will neutralize it but GM don't look at him for hid D skills it is his offence they are paying for.

Much like big Pappi he isn't paid for his D

GM's should be looking at his D because it really brings his overall value down. Player defensive ability is being looked at much more by front offices than ever before.

David Ortiz is a frigging DH. How can you even compare him to Melky?

 

[Eyedea]

I'd love to see someone justify paying Cabrera the same as Ortiz based on their offence. Melky is being paid 15 per based on the fact that he will be in the field. Only problem is that his fielding is terrible.

 

[weems]

Interesting apparently Davidi speculated earlier this week that we might see the Jays trade for a reliever in January and brought up Pentecosts name and saying with Martin here he could be used as trade bait.

 

[Woodman19]

Interesting apparently Davidi speculated earlier this week that we might see the Jays trade for a reliever in January and brought up Pentecosts name and saying with Martin here he could be used as trade bait.

If we are talking Pentecost, we are not talking about relievers in trade.

 

[FreeBird]

That was always the case, you don't get the teams pick anymore, they all are sandwich picks.

Look at it like this

Russel Martin + Pick 31
vs.
Melky Cabrera + Pick 18.

Which one would you rather have?

Better for the Jays they always do better with the sandwich picks than 1st rounder's any way. Go over the pitchers they've taken in the 1st round compared to sandwich and 2nd rounder's.

 

[FreeBird]

Sad to see Melky go, but at least he went outside the division.

The White Sox could be a sleeper team in terms of the Wild Card next year.

Lots of people people on various forums are angry though. Calling the Jays cheapskates and idiots for letting him walk.

Two years ago we were on our way to the World Series, only Buster Olney said the Jays would finish near the bottom. Very few teams have signed several FA's and traded their prospects have flourished.

 

[Tony Romo]

If we are talking Pentecost, we are not talking about relievers in trade.

we getting kimbrel and chapman?

 

[canucksfan]

Your paying 13 million not for a person WAR score at latest I don't think GMs look at WAR only and say well your getting paid on WAR.

If not they should be. WAR takes offense and defense into account. It measures how valuable a player is. If Melky has close to a 1.0 WAR season he wasn't very valuable to the Sox.

They look at the player fit, chemistry and standard stats and figure who he fits.

Player fit and chemistry are the same thing. WAR looks at more than just standard stats. Melky will fill a hole in the two spot but he will provided crappy defense in LF and likely his power numbers will decline.

No matter where Melky plays hid D will be bad. Some parks will neutralize it but GM don't look at him for hid D skills it is his offence they are paying for.

Much like big Pappi he isn't paid for his D

Pappi is a DH. His horrible defense doesn't matter because his ass is on the bench. Also, Melky's offense isn't as good as you think it is. He has had three seasons with an OPS above .800. In his first year as a Jay he had an OPS below .700. In order for him to be valuable he needs an OPS above .750.