Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals 2019-20 PART X

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Polar Bear

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May 15, 2018
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I very much doubt that. There would be a disparity but it would likely be much smaller than you suggest.

From an interview with Craig Button;
Should the Sens trade for Lafrenière? Ft. Craig Button
Craig Button's opinion on prospects doesn't reflect the reality of the price of the 1st pick in the draft in the salary-cap era (especially in a draft where there is a unanimous 1st overall selection). Again, could the Senators make a trade for the pick? Yes. Should they? Not for the likely cost it would be and the unprecedented transaction it would be. And again, our President already said the only way they'd move the pick is via an offer that would "knock their pants and socks off." That doesn't scream an additional 1st and smaller pieces.
 

TheNewEra

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Jul 10, 2013
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what do you want to target? their 2022 1st rnd pick?

they dont have much left and their prospect pool is pretty depleted

their future first would be nice (2022 or 2023 first)
poulin
legare
joseph

if jr is willing to go all in we must help him
 

Sweatred

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Jan 28, 2019
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Craig Button's opinion on prospects doesn't reflect the reality of the price of the 1st pick in the draft in the salary-cap era (especially in a draft where there is a unanimous 1st overall selection). Again, could the Senators make a trade for the pick? Yes. Should they? Not for the likely cost it would be and the unprecedented transaction it would be. And again, our President already said the only way they'd move the pick is via an offer that would "knock their pants and socks off." That doesn't scream an additional 1st and smaller pieces.

You so focused on a “knock your socks off offer” ... anyone who thinks the difference between LAF and the better of By/Stutz is two top prospects++ is greatly over estimating the value between the two players.

I bet one of Stutzle or Byfield has a better career than LAF... if not Drysdale, Raymond, Sanderson or whoever.
 

Polar Bear

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You so focused on a “knock your socks off offer” ... anyone who thinks the difference between LAF and the better of By/Stutz is two top prospects++ is greatly over estimating the value between the two players.

I bet one of Stutzle or Byfield has a better career than LAF... if not Drysdale, Raymond, Sanderson or whoever.
The argument isn't who will be better long-term (totally different debate and one I disagree with but that's not important). The question at hand is what would it take for the Rangers to trade the pick and pass on Laf. Nothing I've said, that has been reported by those who follow the Rangers, and precedence in the salary-cap era, dictates a return anything close that resembles what happened with 2003. I'm not even sure why my point is that controversial, to be quite honest.
 

Sweatred

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The argument isn't who will be better long-term (totally different debate and one I disagree with but that's not important). The question at hand is what would it take for the Rangers to trade the pick and pass on Laf. Nothing I've said, that has been reported by those who follow the Rangers, and precedence in the salary-cap era, dictates a return anything close that resembles what happened with 2003. I'm not even sure why my point is that controversial, to be quite honest.

I just can’t figure out why you think what has “been reported” has any degree of accuracy ?
 

Polar Bear

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I just can’t figure out why you think what has “been reported” has any degree of accuracy ?
Disregarding what out President has said, because our reporters are close with the team. Larry Brooks has many connections with the team and is the beatwriter for the NY Post and with the team since God knows when. He was the first to report we zoomed Laf immediately after the lottery, for instance. He has stated that any offer for 1 would likely cost at least 3, Tkachuk, etc. which you might think is insanely high but that's the only price the Rangers would consider. Again, I am not debating what the pick is worth or who will be the best player long-term in the draft. I am simply informing you and others the price it would take for the Rangers to trade the pick and pass on Laf. Again, I am not sure why what I am writing is controversial. It's not me trying to value or devalue your picks or prospects. I'm simply stating what the team is thinking.
 

Pinto Bean

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I'll say this - suggesting that the trade from 2003 for the 1st overall pick can be used as a basis for a trade for Lafreniere today is about as crazy as suggesting it would take 3rd overall + 5th overall + (I've seen the plus here be anything from Brannstrom to Brady to even Chabot).

As much as Rangers and Sens fans would like it to be so insanely pricey or so incredibly affordable.. it's just not reality. IF the 1st overall pick was every to be traded, it would likely be somewhere in the middle.
 

Polar Bear

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I'll say this - suggesting that the trade from 2003 for the 1st overall pick can be used as a basis for a trade for Lafreniere today is about as crazy as suggesting it would take 3rd overall + 5th overall + (I've seen the plus here be anything from Brannstrom to Brady to even Chabot).

As much as Rangers and Sens fans would like it to be so insanely pricey or so incredibly affordable.. it's just not reality. IF the 1st overall pick was every to be traded, it would likely be somewhere in the middle.
This is 100000% true. The only way a trade would be completed is if the value was in the middle. No team is going to move up and trade a stupid amount. However, THIS is the reason why the 1st overall pick won't be moved, because there is no incentive the move the pick minus the aforementioned crazy offer.
 
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RAFI BOMB

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I'll say this - suggesting that the trade from 2003 for the 1st overall pick can be used as a basis for a trade for Lafreniere today is about as crazy as suggesting it would take 3rd overall + 5th overall + (I've seen the plus here be anything from Brannstrom to Brady to even Chabot).

As much as Rangers and Sens fans would like it to be so insanely pricey or so incredibly affordable.. it's just not reality. IF the 1st overall pick was every to be traded, it would likely be somewhere in the middle.
It isn't crazy at all. The 2003 draft was one of the strongest if not the strongest draft in 20 years. Also as Craig Button said many don't have Lafreniere in the same class as Crosby, MacKinnon and McDavid so that changes the price from something insane to something more reasonable. There is obviously a gap in this draft between Lafreniere and who will be available at 3 or 5 but the gap is smaller than some think. Those are relevant factors to assessing the trade value of the pick

It makes sense that the cost could be higher than the 2003 draft to move up but the cost would be much closer to the 2003 trade than anything close to 3 and 5. Based on this draft specifically 3 and 5 is worth more than 1st overall. It is worth more than it would be in a weaker draft so any notion of 1 being worth 3 and 5 doesn't make any sense.

If league sentiment had Lafreniere in the same class as Crosby, MacKinnon and McDavid then there would be no chance he gets traded. Given that league sentiment is that he is not in that class it actually increases the chances that the pick could get traded.

If the pick does get traded then the Sens will most likely be parting with either 3 or 5 plus the NYI 1st rounder plus additional assets on top of that. My suggested trade earlier in this thread was 1st overall for 5th overall, NYI 1st rounder, Tierney, Balcers and Davidson. Another poster suggested that we would need to replace Balcers and Davidson with Brannstrom.

In my opinion both those trades are close to what a return for 1st overall would look like.
 
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RAFI BOMB

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Disregarding what out President has said, because our reporters are close with the team. Larry Brooks has many connections with the team and is the beatwriter for the NY Post and with the team since God knows when. He was the first to report we zoomed Laf immediately after the lottery, for instance. He has stated that any offer for 1 would likely cost at least 3, Tkachuk, etc. which you might think is insanely high but that's the only price the Rangers would consider. Again, I am not debating what the pick is worth or who will be the best player long-term in the draft. I am simply informing you and others the price it would take for the Rangers to trade the pick and pass on Laf. Again, I am not sure why what I am writing is controversial. It's not me trying to value or devalue your picks or prospects. I'm simply stating what the team is thinking.

Yeah and our GM said that any trade for Karlsson would cost 5 first round picks as the starting price for a bid and then teams would have to add on top of that.

No team is going to pay anything close to 3 and 5 or 3 and Tkachuk. There is also a decent chance that your GM trades the pick for a considerable amount less than what the rumored asking price just like the Karlsson deal.

Honestly I would have thought you Rangers fans would have a bit more gratitude. You got Zibanejad from us for next to nothing. It was highway robbery of a trade. You gave us Brassard and a 7th for Zibanejad and a 2nd. You were gifted a core piece and now with us Sens fans speculating about a trade for 1st overall you are back trying to rob us again. It comes across as being greedy. You also won one of the lottery picks last year to get Kaako and won the lottery this year in which your team shouldn't have been in. Maybe you guys should just appreciate your luck.
 
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BradyTkachucky

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This is 100000% true. The only way a trade would be completed is if the value was in the middle. No team is going to move up and trade a stupid amount. However, THIS is the reason why the 1st overall pick won't be moved, because there is no incentive the move the pick minus the aforementioned crazy offer.

you repeat the same crap everywhere you post. Go away already!!
 

Polar Bear

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Yeah and our GM said that any trade for Karlsson would cost 5 first round picks as the starting price for a bid and then teams would have to add on top of that.

No team is going to pay anything close to 3 and 5 or 3 and Tkachuk. There is also a decent chance that your GM trades the pick for a considerable amount less than what the rumored asking price just like the Karlsson deal.

Honestly I would have thought you Rangers fans would have a bit more gratitude. You got Zibanejad from us for next to nothing. It was highway robbery of a trade. You gave us Brassard and a 7th for Zibanejad and a 2nd. You were gifted a core piece and now with us Sens fans speculating about a trade for 1st overall you are back trying to rob us again. It comes across as being greedy. You also won one of the lottery picks last year to get Kaako and won the lottery this year in which your team shouldn't have been in. Maybe you guys should just appreciate your luck.
There is absolutely zero evidence and quite the opposite actually, that our team is going to trade the pick.
 
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Stuzchuk

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their future first would be nice (2022 or 2023 first)
poulin
legare
joseph

if jr is willing to go all in we must help him
we can help him, we'll give some free cap space (Johnson, Bjugstad) and all it will cost is Joseph and Poulin... win/win for everyone
 
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TheBloodyNine

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Oct 8, 2016
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There is also a decent chance that your GM trades the pick for a considerable amount less than what the rumored asking price just like the Karlsson deal.

Honestly I would have thought you Rangers fans would have a bit more gratitude. You got Zibanejad from us for next to nothing. It was highway robbery of a trade. You gave us Brassard and a 7th for Zibanejad and a 2nd. You were gifted a core piece and now with us Sens fans speculating about a trade for 1st overall you are back trying to rob us again. It comes across as being greedy. You also won one of the lottery picks last year to get Kaako and won the lottery this year in which your team shouldn't have been in. Maybe you guys should just appreciate your luck.
:laugh: Good lord are you living in a fantasy world with this crap. That pick isn’t being traded, and you ain’t getting it. Sorry you’re pissed at the Rangers for ripping off your GM, not our problem.
 

JD1

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Sep 12, 2005
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@RangerSeth and @TheBloodyNine

Seriously .... why are you guys in here? Your whole schtick reeks of having your fingers in your ears and your tongues stuck out.

You're in here arguing why the Rangers won't trade the pick. Great. Super. If that's what you believe....why do you need to be here at all? It just seems kind if a waste of time doesn't it?

Great. The Rangers aren't trading the pick. Ba bye!
 

TheDebater

Peace be upon you
Mar 10, 2016
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It isn't crazy at all. The 2003 draft was one of the strongest if not the strongest draft in 20 years. Also as Craig Button said many don't have Lafreniere in the same class as Crosby, MacKinnon and McDavid so that changes the price from something insane to something more reasonable. There is obviously a gap in this draft between Lafreniere and who will be available at 3 or 5 but the gap is smaller than some think. Those are relevant factors to assessing the trade value of the pick

It makes sense that the cost could be higher than the 2003 draft to move up but the cost would be much closer to the 2003 trade than anything close to 3 and 5. Based on this draft specifically 3 and 5 is worth more than 1st overall. It is worth more than it would be in a weaker draft so any notion of 1 being worth 3 and 5 doesn't make any sense.

If league sentiment had Lafreniere in the same class as Crosby, MacKinnon and McDavid then there would be no chance he gets traded. Given that league sentiment is that he is not in that class it actually increases the chances that the pick could get traded.

If the pick does get traded then the Sens will most likely be parting with either 3 or 5 plus the NYI 1st rounder plus additional assets on top of that. My suggested trade earlier in this thread was 1st overall for 5th overall, NYI 1st rounder, Tierney, Balcers and Davidson. Another poster suggested that we would need to replace Balcers and Davidson with Brannstrom.

In my opinion both those trades are close to what a return for 1st overall would look like.

Correct me if I am wrong but from what I recall there was no real consensus first overall prospect in 2003? It was definitely one of the strongest drafts overall, correct, but the players drafted in the top 5 that year were not even the best players of that draft.

1. M.A Fleury (Pittsburgh)
2. Eric Staal (Carolina)
3. Nathan Horton (Florida)

Was Fleury really the consensus 1st overall pick? Did the Panthers know that they would get their guy if they traded down from 1st overall? I just feel like Pittsburgh underpaid to trade up, but by selecting M.A Fleury, I feel like they overpaid because I would have assumed he would still be there at 3.

Crazy draft it was in 2003, as arguably the best players from that class went late 1st and 2nd rounds.
 

RAFI BOMB

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Correct me if I am wrong but from what I recall there was no real consensus first overall prospect in 2003? It was definitely one of the strongest drafts overall, correct, but the players drafted in the top 5 that year were not even the best players of that draft.

1. M.A Fleury (Pittsburgh)
2. Eric Staal (Carolina)
3. Nathan Horton (Florida)

Was Fleury really the consensus 1st overall pick? Did the Panthers know that they would get their guy if they traded down from 1st overall? I just feel like Pittsburgh underpaid to trade up, but by selecting M.A Fleury, I feel like they overpaid because I would have assumed he would still be there at 3.

Crazy draft it was in 2003, as arguably the best players from that class went late 1st and 2nd rounds.
I am not sure who the projected first overall pick was leading up to the 2003 draft. I tried to look it up and all I could find were the Central Scouting Services final rankings, but they separate NA Skaters, Int Skaters, NA Goalies and Int Goalies into separate lists. You can check that out here:
2003 CSB FINAL (NA SKATERS) - The Draft Analyst

If you want to check out CSS rankings for other years you can find that here:
Year-to-Year Central Scouting Final Rankings - The Draft Analyst

You bring up a lot of valid points that could impact trade value. In this draft in particular Lafreniere is the clear cut number 1 then the next tier is Byfield and Stutzle, then the next tier is Rossi, Raymond, Perfetti, Drysdale, Sanderson and sometimes included is Askarov. From what has been discussed publicly Lafreniere is the most NHL ready but there is some debate on which player may have the highest upside. It was even rumored there for a while that if the Red Wings were to get first overall that they would take Stutzle. So while there is a clear cut number 1 there is a lot of discussion suggesting that the gap between the tiers isn't massive. Also given the fact that prominent hockey people like Craig Button claim that Lafreniere isn't in the same tier as Crosby, Mackinnon and McDavid it suggests that a team like the Rangers might actually consider trading the pick,

Another factor to consider is that we aren't all that far off from the 2012 draft where Nail Yakupov was drafted first overall. Many were high on him and he didn't pan out and like you said with the 2003 draft that sometimes the best players in the draft are not the top picks. The main point of this is that it is certainly possible that a team could seriously consider trading the first overall pick. Maybe multiple teams have given it serious thought in some of the recent drafts. We don't know what kind of offers those teams turned down and maybe some of them are regretting not taking those deals.

As I have said before the Sens have a ton of assets and if they are really high on Lafreniere they will make a solid offer to the Rangers. In that scenario if the Rangers stick with their pick it won't be because there isn't a good offer on the table. I also don't think the type of offer for the Rangers to seriously contemplate it is anywhere close to what the Rangers media are reporting. In my opinion that is a negotiating tactic by their organization to try to leverage a massive offer. It was an negotiating anchor to draw in bids from other teams. But the Sens have already stated publicly that they aren't willing to pay that so that negotiating anchor is no longer in place.
 
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angrydad

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We really need to stop debating the potential of a swap for first overall with the Rangers. It's not going to happen. It is more valuable for Ottawa to keep 3+5 and it makes complete sense that NYR would keep the pick to draft Laf. He is NHL ready and the Rangers are ready to compete. Injecting a talent like him onto the roster with a cheap ELC will be incredibly valuable for them. Ottawa isn't close and they need help everywhere, especially a need for a first line C which they will be able to get at 3. Use 5 to take another F or D, can't really go wrong at this point in the rebuild.

Far more productive to talk about Korpisalo, or the Islanders pick, or Tierney, or anything else other than the 1st overall pick. Anything else.
 

JimmySpaetzle

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We really need to stop debating the potential of a swap for first overall with the Rangers. It's not going to happen. It is more valuable for Ottawa to keep 3+5 and it makes complete sense that NYR would keep the pick to draft Laf. He is NHL ready and the Rangers are ready to compete. Injecting a talent like him onto the roster with a cheap ELC will be incredibly valuable for them. Ottawa isn't close and they need help everywhere, especially a need for a first line C which they will be able to get at 3. Use 5 to take another F or D, can't really go wrong at this point in the rebuild.

Far more productive to talk about Korpisalo, or the Islanders pick, or Tierney, or anything else other than the 1st overall pick. Anything else.

Anything else? What's the chance Edmonton moves McDavid to shake things up :naughty:
 
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Hale The Villain

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Wonder if we'd be willing to take on Jack Johnson's 3.25M cap hit for the next 3YRs if it meant adding a goalie like Murray for free (or very little assets).

We're not exactly short on LHD but Johnson only makes an average of 2.75M in salary the next 3YRs.

Bjugstad would also be an option, but he makes 5.25M salary next year.

Maybe something like Nilsson (2.4M) + Tierney (RFA) for Bjugstad (5.25M) + Murray (RFA)?
 
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