Correct me if I am wrong but from what I recall there was no real consensus first overall prospect in 2003? It was definitely one of the strongest drafts overall, correct, but the players drafted in the top 5 that year were not even the best players of that draft.
1. M.A Fleury (Pittsburgh)
2. Eric Staal (Carolina)
3. Nathan Horton (Florida)
Was Fleury really the consensus 1st overall pick? Did the Panthers know that they would get their guy if they traded down from 1st overall? I just feel like Pittsburgh underpaid to trade up, but by selecting M.A Fleury, I feel like they overpaid because I would have assumed he would still be there at 3.
Crazy draft it was in 2003, as arguably the best players from that class went late 1st and 2nd rounds.
I am not sure who the projected first overall pick was leading up to the 2003 draft. I tried to look it up and all I could find were the Central Scouting Services final rankings, but they separate NA Skaters, Int Skaters, NA Goalies and Int Goalies into separate lists. You can check that out here:
2003 CSB FINAL (NA SKATERS) - The Draft Analyst
If you want to check out CSS rankings for other years you can find that here:
Year-to-Year Central Scouting Final Rankings - The Draft Analyst
You bring up a lot of valid points that could impact trade value. In this draft in particular Lafreniere is the clear cut number 1 then the next tier is Byfield and Stutzle, then the next tier is Rossi, Raymond, Perfetti, Drysdale, Sanderson and sometimes included is Askarov. From what has been discussed publicly Lafreniere is the most NHL ready but there is some debate on which player may have the highest upside. It was even rumored there for a while that if the Red Wings were to get first overall that they would take Stutzle. So while there is a clear cut number 1 there is a lot of discussion suggesting that the gap between the tiers isn't massive. Also given the fact that prominent hockey people like Craig Button claim that Lafreniere isn't in the same tier as Crosby, Mackinnon and McDavid it suggests that a team like the Rangers might actually consider trading the pick,
Another factor to consider is that we aren't all that far off from the 2012 draft where Nail Yakupov was drafted first overall. Many were high on him and he didn't pan out and like you said with the 2003 draft that sometimes the best players in the draft are not the top picks. The main point of this is that it is certainly possible that a team could seriously consider trading the first overall pick. Maybe multiple teams have given it serious thought in some of the recent drafts. We don't know what kind of offers those teams turned down and maybe some of them are regretting not taking those deals.
As I have said before the Sens have a ton of assets and if they are really high on Lafreniere they will make a solid offer to the Rangers. In that scenario if the Rangers stick with their pick it won't be because there isn't a good offer on the table. I also don't think the type of offer for the Rangers to seriously contemplate it is anywhere close to what the Rangers media are reporting. In my opinion that is a negotiating tactic by their organization to try to leverage a massive offer. It was an negotiating anchor to draw in bids from other teams. But the Sens have already stated publicly that they aren't willing to pay that so that negotiating anchor is no longer in place.