Turris arguably took a discount to go to Nashville. 6 x 6 with no bonuses, no front loaded cash, and no trade protection. So long as he had a season in line with his previous levels of production, on the open market he likely could have gotten 7x7 with a full NTC and bonus money. A 32 year old Tyler Bozak got an AAV only 1M less than Turris.
A 1C in today's NHL is worth a floor of 8 million. Maybe more now that we know the cap is probably going up to 83 million pending the NHLPA's escalator.
Logan Couture was signed for 8 x 8, Tyler Seguin was signed for 8 x 9.85. That gives a nice range for Duchene right now. He's producing more than Couture (although some people might argue Couture is the better overall C, but production matters most), and he's historically not produced anywhere near as much or as consistently as Seguin.
Dreger and Mckenzie have both predicted that the ball park for Duchene is between 8-9 million. I think that is the right idea in terms of what he would sign for if the Senators retain him.
If he goes to July 1st as a UFA, you can throw that 8-9 million out the window. At that point, other than Tavares, he's the most valuable free agent we've seen in years. I could see Duchene getting 10 or 11 million from the right team, although similar to Tavares he might prioritize signing somewhere that is the right fit and taking less money from his chosen team. Tavares was offered something like 12 or 13 million from San Jose but chose 11 in Toronto.
Well, all you're saying is not strange to me as I have been looking closely at NHL salaries and contracts since the establishment of the cap. Before Cap Friendly there was Cap Geek, and before Cap Geek there was NHL Numbers and others.
It's true that "in theory", Turris contract is good (particularly no NMC or bonuses), however you have to take into account other factors like no state tax on income in Nashville. It's true that N.1 Centers are getting expensive but Turris is not one. It's not a guy that has the potential to go PPG or close it on a long stretch. His best season was 64 pts, which is good and acceptable for a N.1 but by watching him play, you know he misses the high end skill level that a true N.1 Center needs. Turris is like Plekanec, a N.1 C by default and Pleks had a 69 pts season and a 70 pts season.
Also, I don't see why the comparison with Bozak contract helps the argument that Turris is "underpaid", TB got 3 years at 5.0 per and had several seasons around 45-55 pts (close to Turris) and even 49 pts in 58 games in 2013-14
Duchene is a N.1 Center but is not an Elite one, he shouldn't be paid like the McDavids, Tavares, Malkins, etc. Couture is a good comparable but Logan is a much more complete player, above average defensively while Duchene is not that good in that regard. I know offensive stats are more visible but guys also get paid for other aspects of the game.