News Article: Trade Rumors: Elliotte Friedman Speculates on Potential Athanasiou Trade With Hurricanes

[Dotter]

Good Lord, it's even worse at 5 on 5
14-15 .24 G/60 .93 P/60
15-16 .21 G/60 .69 P/60
16-17 .52 G/60 .73 p/60
17-18 .19 G/60 .31 P/60

.31 p/60...
Yikes
Here's where that ranks on Detroit.
Gree .68/60
Jensen .66/60
XO 59/60
Ericsson .58/60
Daley .56/60
Dekeyser .51/60
Kronwall .33/60
Faulk .31/60

So...worst on the team.
By the way, Faulk can't blame his team.
Hanifin is at 1.18
TVR is at .71
Pesce is at .59
Fleury is at .45
Slavin is at .43
Faulk is at .31

So... I don't do this deal without heavy scouting and investigation

Petr Mrazek is older than Faulk by 34 days and you think he can turn it around and you want to give him a big contract this spring... the younger Faulk is possibly available for a middling tweener with reported offseason issues... and you are all up in arms?

You trade AA for Faulk if that deal is available. You do it now without thinking about it. If (more like when) Faulk bounces back, his trade value just shot up significantly.

AA just isn't an important player.

 

[Frk It]

Agreed. This fanbase has a severe case of overrating d-men on other teams. Faulk had one good season? Has to be a top-pairing guy! Maybe he rebounds in Detroit, but on the surface there’s no reason to think he’d be in a much better position here.

One good season? He was good from 14-15 to 16-17 (3 seasons). If anything, you are using a small sample size to say he's not good, by just using the 54 games he has played this year. Had he played complete seasons the last 2 years he would have three 40+ pt seasons in a row.

 

[Heaton]

I really think AA is getting the Hudler treatment to a large extent, a lot of people thought Hudler would go on to be an elite 70+ point guy but he never had the tools (skating ability) to get to that level. It's possible AA doesn't have the hockey sense to get there. If Faulk for AA is a legitimate option, I'd take it in a heartbeat, the biggest downside to Faulk is injury history. We need defensemen and centers, I'm not worried about wingers.

 

[TheMule93]

I really think AA is getting the Hudler treatment to a large extent, a lot of people thought Hudler would go on to be an elite 70+ point guy but he never had the tools (skating ability) to get to that level. It's possible AA doesn't have the hockey sense to get there. If Faulk for AA is a legitimate option, I'd take it in a heartbeat, the biggest downside to Faulk is injury history. We need defensemen and centers, I'm not worried about wingers.

We need literally any elite player, regardless of position. Our wingers are not very good. Our centers are not very good, and our defense blows.

 

[jkutswings]

One good season? He was good from 14-15 to 16-17 (3 seasons). If anything, you are using a small sample size to say he's not good, by just using the 54 games he has played this year. Had he played complete seasons the last 2 years he would have three 40+ pt seasons in a row.

Pretty much. Larkin was awful for much of last season, but judging him completely for that sample size of 50-60 games would've been a mistake.

Using caution is encouraged. But completely ruling out the option of adding Faulk, just based on this season, doesn't make sense.

 

[Heaton]

We need literally any elite player, regardless of position. Our wingers are not very good. Our centers are not very good, and our defense blows.

I don't see any elite offensive qualities in AA, but he's an elite skater.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Notwithstanding his recent troubles, Faulk is a significantly better defensemen than AA is a winger. My bigger question is why do Friedman's stream of conscious ramblings produce three-page threads. He is not being traded for AA.

 

[newfy]

One good season? He was good from 14-15 to 16-17 (3 seasons). If anything, you are using a small sample size to say he's not good, by just using the 54 games he has played this year. Had he played complete seasons the last 2 years he would have three 40+ pt seasons in a row.

Lots of people in here havent watched Faulk play I dont think. Hes 25 years old and has already played for the USA at the olympics. A lot of time wings prospects dont make it to the NHL until theyre 24 or so. By that age Faulk was already a number one dman with an olympics under his belt.

But some people see Athanasiou make a nice move in a shootout and hes untouchable. A 25 year old potential top pairing dman vs a 23 year old winger should be a no brainer for anyone

 

[SirloinUB]

AA can be a monster if he can develop his playmaking and commit to playing two-way hockey. On the other hand, you don’t get a guy like Faulk without giving up something you want to keep. Not an easy call imo.

 

[TheMule93]

I like it

 

[ArGarBarGar]

See my user title.

 

[Pavels Dog]

One good season? He was good from 14-15 to 16-17 (3 seasons). If anything, you are using a small sample size to say he's not good, by just using the 54 games he has played this year. Had he played complete seasons the last 2 years he would have three 40+ pt seasons in a row.

He's 27th in points among D since 14-15. 30th in P/GP. Where he shines is the goalscoring (8th), but he's 36th in assists and has one of the worst +/- ratings of all NHL d-men during that time.
Yeah, I'd say he has one season so far where he's really worth the hype. The timing to me is off here, again unless it's AA straight up for Faulk and we're doing it because AA has indicated he doesn't want to re-sign here.

Let's wait and see what we land in the '18 draft. What if we win the lottery and get Dahlin? Not that Faulk would be useless, but AA is a really interesting forward to keep in the mix and we have enough coming up on D that right now patience is our best course of action imo. If Faulk is available it's because Carolina makes the same conclusion I do; he's not a differencemaker.

 

[kliq]

No thanks, rebuilding done wrong.

Why do you think this? Age? Faulks stats?

 

[Frk It]

He's 27th in points among D since 14-15. 30th in P/GP. Where he shines is the goalscoring (8th), but he's 36th in assists and has one of the worst +/- ratings of all NHL d-men during that time.
Yeah, I'd say he has one season so far where he's really worth the hype. The timing to me is off here, again unless it's AA straight up for Faulk and we're doing it because AA has indicated he doesn't want to re-sign here.

Let's wait and see what we land in the '18 draft. What if we win the lottery and get Dahlin? Not that Faulk would be useless, but AA is a really interesting forward to keep in the mix and we have enough coming up on D that right now patience is our best course of action imo. If Faulk is available it's because Carolina makes the same conclusion I do; he's not a differencemaker.

If you exclude people with less than 100 games, from 14-15 to 16-17 he is 20th in PPG. He is .01-.02 PPG behind OEL, Doughty, and Hamilton in that time frame. Tied with Krug and Pieterangelo.

I won't argue that his play is dipped, and that the dip in play attributes to him being available. But he is 25, so I don't see why he can't turn it around. Plus I think Carolina having Slavin/Hanifin puts them in a position where they could move a good defenseman to try and bolster their forward group.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

He's 27th in points among D since 14-15. 30th in P/GP. Where he shines is the goalscoring (8th), but he's 36th in assists and has one of the worst +/- ratings of all NHL d-men during that time.
Yeah, I'd say he has one season so far where he's really worth the hype. The timing to me is off here, again unless it's AA straight up for Faulk and we're doing it because AA has indicated he doesn't want to re-sign here.

Let's wait and see what we land in the '18 draft. What if we win the lottery and get Dahlin? Not that Faulk would be useless, but AA is a really interesting forward to keep in the mix and we have enough coming up on D that right now patience is our best course of action imo. If Faulk is available it's because Carolina makes the same conclusion I do; he's not a differencemaker.

If we get dahlin we can have faulk and dahlin. Assuming he returns to form we don’t need to worry about dfence anymore

 

[Frk It]

Good Lord, it's even worse at 5 on 5
14-15 .24 G/60 .93 P/60
15-16 .21 G/60 .69 P/60
16-17 .52 G/60 .73 p/60
17-18 .19 G/60 .31 P/60

.31 p/60...
Yikes
Here's where that ranks on Detroit.
Gree .68/60
Jensen .66/60
XO 59/60
Ericsson .58/60
Daley .56/60
Dekeyser .51/60
Kronwall .33/60
Faulk .31/60

So...worst on the team.
By the way, Faulk can't blame his team.
Hanifin is at 1.18
TVR is at .71
Pesce is at .59
Fleury is at .45
Slavin is at .43
Faulk is at .31

So... I don't do this deal without heavy scouting and investigation

sample size....

last year his 5 on 5 p/60 was .73
year before that it was .69
year before that it was .93

So his points/60 in any of the seasons prior to this year would be better than anyone on our team currently. 3 years of data > .5 years of data

 

[ShelbyZ]

As for Faulk this current season, he seems to have returned to form after a slow start.

First 33 games this season: 1G - 6A - 7P - 1.1SH%
Last 21 games this season: 3G - 9A - 12P - 4.8SH%

From a value standpoint, depending on what in addition to AA it takes to get him, there aren't many ways to go wrong with Faulk. If he doesn't help the team become a contender or get close to it, he eventually becomes a not yet 29YO TDL rental sweepstakes, like Shattenkirk was last season, with the potential to return a good futures package.

That being said, if the Canes put Faulk on the market, they're likely to get offers richer than even a package containing Athanasiou. If they're lucky, Chiarelli could even get desperate enough to offer Draisaitl straight up in exchange...

 

[Winger98]

I would rather bet on Hronek, Saarijarvi or someone we draft in the top 10 of ’18 to become a similar level of player and keep AA around.

I don't know, we made that bet on XO, Sproul, Marchenko, Backman, and Jensen. We all backed different horses in that race and none of us really have had much of a ticket to cash on at the end. Meanwhile, the Wings seem to churn out point producing wings pretty well. I'd rather it be Tatar or Nyquist going the other way, sure, and I wouldn't mind adding something other than our 1st pick to it to make it happen, but I don't think those guys carry the value/upside/contract status to make it happen or it would have already.

Value wise, I think we're getting good value in a swap of AA for Faulk. If push comes to shove, I think we could turn around in a year and flip Faulk for something more than we could likely flip Athanasiou for. And as Bruce mentions, if we get Dahlin, then we have Dahlin and Faulk. Besides, Dahlin is a lefty. We'd just have a great first pair at that point.

 

[HIFE]

Notwithstanding his recent troubles, Faulk is a significantly better defensemen than AA is a winger. My bigger question is why do Friedman's stream of conscious ramblings produce three-page threads. He is not being traded for AA.

I know. This is probably the most worked up I've been this season and it's barely a possibility.

Still it stirs some interesting discussion. To repeat my musings: at the TDL we're supposed to be strictly sellers, but if in the melee an option like Faulk became a reality you jump at it.

Also, is there something to the feeling last autumn there might still be animosity between AA and the Wings? Would they consider AA as a trade piece and for what level of return?

I've wondered why Mantha is completely off-limits. I understand he has a very unique skill set but again, shouldn't the Wings be looking at all options to bolster the defense? It sucks to imagine but that's the purpose of trades- to address the area of need. I don't know if the answer that "well Cholo and Hronek will be superstars in 2 years" isn't a bit wishful thinking.

 

[Bench]

If this is on the table, Holland needs to get this done. It's such a no brainer for the team right now to flip a skilled winger for defense.

 

[Redder Winger]

Petr Mrazek is older than Faulk by 34 days and you think he can turn it around and you want to give him a big contract this spring... the younger Faulk is possibly available for a middling tweener with reported offseason issues... and you are all up in arms?

You trade AA for Faulk if that deal is available. You do it now without thinking about it. If (more like when) Faulk bounces back, his trade value just shot up significantly.

AA just isn't an important player.

Don't be daft.
Faulk isn't Mrazek, a guy who costs us salary and nothing else.

 

[Redder Winger]

sample size....

last year his 5 on 5 p/60 was .73
year before that it was .69
year before that it was .93

So his points/60 in any of the seasons prior to this year would be better than anyone on our team currently. 3 years of data > .5 years of data

1 5 on 5 assist in 50 games or so.
That's enough sample size to investigate before throwing away a 23 year old.

If you don't see a red flag here, I don't know what to tell you.

Maybe you like buy outs.

 

[Frk It]

1 5 on 5 assist in 50 games or so.
That's enough sample size to investigate before throwing away a 23 year old.

If you don't see a red flag here, I don't know what to tell you.

Maybe you like buy outs.

If it was Stephen Weiss who was 30 years old and coming off surgery, sure. Maybe I'd be worried about a small sample size like that.

He is 25 years old. He has 3 seasons of good production under his belt. He fills a bigger need than AA does. Of course you should have your pro scouts do their due diligence, but I don't see the issue here.

 

[Redder Winger]

I don't know, we made that bet on XO, Sproul, Marchenko, Backman, and Jensen. We all backed different horses in that race and none of us really have had much of a ticket to cash on at the end. Meanwhile, the Wings seem to churn out point producing wings pretty well. I'd rather it be Tatar or Nyquist going the other way, sure, and I wouldn't mind adding something other than our 1st pick to it to make it happen, but I don't think those guys carry the value/upside/contract status to make it happen or it would have already.

Value wise, I think we're getting good value in a swap of AA for Faulk. If push comes to shove, I think we could turn around in a year and flip Faulk for something more than we could likely flip Athanasiou for. And as Bruce mentions, if we get Dahlin, then we have Dahlin and Faulk. Besides, Dahlin is a lefty. We'd just have a great first pair at that point.

Unless Faulk really is a guy who is good for 1 5-on-5 assist through 65 percent of the season.

Here's another Red Flag.
Carolina defense leaders in penalties
Faulk 17.
Fluery and TVR 6.

So to summarize
4 5-on-5 points all year
Worse production than anyone on Detroit's defense and Carolina's defense.
Worst plus minus on Carolina
Most penalties and worst penalty differential on Carolina's defense.

Fools rush into this one.

People looked the other way when Weiss's production was abnormally low for Florida and we signed him to a 5 year contract.

 

[Redder Winger]

If it was Stephen Weiss who was 30 years old and coming off surgery, sure. Maybe I'd be worried about a small sample size like that.

He is 25 years old. He has 3 seasons of good production under his belt. He fills a bigger need than AA does. Of course you should have your pro scouts do their due diligence, but I don't see the issue here.

How do you not see the issue.
It's plain as day.

You need to do more than have your scouts investigate.
You call up people close to the Carolina organization (Aaron Ward, for example) and find out what is going on.
Maybe they tell you this is puck luck.
Maybe they tell you he's been playing with an injury he'll get taken care of in the offseason.
Maybe they tell you something worse.
Or tell you nothing.

But this trade isn't nearly as automatic is people make it out to be.

If you think it is, you deserve it if it blows up in your face.