Speculation: Trade Ideas and Free Agency VI - 2014 Offseason Edition

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nickschultzfan

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Jan 7, 2009
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Dumba surely has a long way to go to pan out as a seventh overall selection. But in response to the bolded portion: uhh what?
Dumba isn't going to get much bigger. His frame is already pretty filled out. Maybe he has another growth spurt, but it's unlike that he's going to be much bigger than 6'0", 200 pounds. That's a solid build, but he's not going to be the crushing guys who are 30 pounds lighter than he is like he does in junior.

As for offense, he seems to have decent offensive instincts, but his offensive hockey IQ is no more than average for an NHL defenseman, and it's probably below average for the defensive side of the game.

In fact, I think he got so many points in junior because that is where he focus was. The moment he was asked to play defense, his game fell apart and he couldn't think through multiple parts of the game.
 

57special

Posting the right way since 2012.
Sep 5, 2012
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Don't get this Dumba talk. He looked a bit out of place last year, but no worse than Ballard/Prosser. His skating speed is very exciting. He might end up being a bottom pairing Dman, but he also has the potential to be a game breaker with his athleticism.
 

nickschultzfan

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Jan 7, 2009
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Don't get this Dumba talk. He looked a bit out of place last year, but no worse than Ballard/Prosser. His skating speed is very exciting. He might end up being a bottom pairing Dman, but he also has the potential to be a game breaker with his athleticism.
Being one of the people who is down, a major concern is that there are very little current NHL Dmen that would be a model for Dumba. There seems to be a lot of guys like him in junior that never pan out in the NHL.

He's probably closest to Phaneuf or Burns, but he has none of their size.

Kronwall is also close, but he appears to have a lower hockey IQ.

So, projections are grasping at a poor-man's PK Subban, but even Subban himself shows how fine a line it is from being a dominate force or a guy who destroys an entire series on a bad turnover.

In sum, there doesn't seem to be a lot of margin for error with Dumba. He either pans out and he's a offensive stud, or he has to be given protected minutes in the bottom pairing, or he's not even making it out of the AHL.
 

Kenny G

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Jun 6, 2012
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One can dream. ROR would cost a few good draft picks with the overpayment, though. Two firsts, one 2nd and one 3rd round pick if he gets over $6.73m deal. Could be worth it. Under a $6.73m deal would be a no-brainer, at least for me.


1st, 2nd and 3rd for ROR, I agree, would easily be worth it. It'll be interesting to see what happens with him, especially if they sign Stastny. Would look real good on the Wild :handclap:
 

Lapa

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Feb 21, 2010
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1st, 2nd and 3rd for ROR, I agree, would easily be worth it. It'll be interesting to see what happens with him, especially if they sign Stastny. Would look real good on the Wild :handclap:

If COL accepted that, I'd fly to North America and drive ROR to Minnesota myself. Sadly, I think it would take Granlund/Coyle/Nino and more to get him.
 

J22*

Guest
Being one of the people who is down, a major concern is that there are very little current NHL Dmen that would be a model for Dumba. There seems to be a lot of guys like him in junior that never pan out in the NHL.

He's probably closest to Phaneuf or Burns, but he has none of their size.

Kronwall is also close, but he appears to have a lower hockey IQ.

So, projections are grasping at a poor-man's PK Subban, but even Subban himself shows how fine a line it is from being a dominate force or a guy who destroys an entire series on a bad turnover.

In sum, there doesn't seem to be a lot of margin for error with Dumba. He either pans out and he's a offensive stud, or he has to be given protected minutes in the bottom pairing, or he's not even making it out of the AHL.

Can you explain the bolded please? Are you saying that there are no real comparables for a smooth skating 6ft 200lb dman that is better on offense than defense at 19? It seems that you think that the big hits are the most important part of Dumba's game?
 

Randy BoBandy

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May 9, 2011
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Being one of the people who is down, a major concern is that there are very little current NHL Dmen that would be a model for Dumba. There seems to be a lot of guys like him in junior that never pan out in the NHL.

He's probably closest to Phaneuf or Burns, but he has none of their size.

Kronwall is also close, but he appears to have a lower hockey IQ.

So, projections are grasping at a poor-man's PK Subban, but even Subban himself shows how fine a line it is from being a dominate force or a guy who destroys an entire series on a bad turnover.

In sum, there doesn't seem to be a lot of margin for error with Dumba. He either pans out and he's a offensive stud, or he has to be given protected minutes in the bottom pairing, or he's not even making it out of the AHL.

This is ridiculous. One turnover doesn't ruin a series, it may be a factor in a goal being scored one game, but in no means does a turnover cause a series loss.

Anyway

Subban is a monster offensively. His defensive skills will only continue to develop. He is just under so much scrutiny all the time given his Norris trophy, flashy play, and the market that he is in. I think his faults are highly exaggerated. He is a game changing defenseman.

He is the same height as Dumba just has about 20 more pounds of muscle. Im sure with some more time in the weight room and eating right Dumba could get there. I remember his first summer at development camp he was a physical beast for his age compared to our other prospects.

I'm skeptical of Dumba reaching his potential, but honestly you have to take a shot once in a while if you want to have game breaking talent on your squad. We don't need Dumba to bee Subban because of our defensive depth, but given how he played as an 18 yr old not looking out of place and probably better than Stoner, Prosser, and Ballard. I can't see why he won't become at least a second pairing guy with some more seasoning. We need his mobility and offensive skills on our PP soooo bad. And if that is all he is one day. I'm fine with that.
 

nickschultzfan

Registered User
Jan 7, 2009
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I am saying that Subban is "the exception that proves the rule." I didn't say Subban wasn't good. I said he's beyond rare.

Subban is the only effective NHL Dman that can pull off a true "run-and-gun" style of play from the blueline. And he's still questioned about his positive-negative impact, even more once he gets his mega-contract.

In past eras, you saw a lot more Dmen like Subban. Blueliners who ran the offense for an entire team and punished opponents through big hits. But they also didn't play defense and turned the puck over a lot. Those eras are gone.

If Dumba turns into Subban, he'll be good. But if he is half-a-step below Subban, it's big step down.
 

SunDin

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Dec 22, 2008
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E.Kane would probably cost too much, but what about Wheeler or Ladd out of the Peg?

Jets has a whole line of players Id like on the Wild, Kane, Wheeler, Byfuglien, Bogosian, Ladd..
But when we start talking about what we have to give up, im probably not interessted anymore :laugh:
 

nickschultzfan

Registered User
Jan 7, 2009
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Can you explain the bolded please? Are you saying that there are no real comparables for a smooth skating 6ft 200lb dman that is better on offense than defense at 19? It seems that you think that the big hits are the most important part of Dumba's game?
In the NHL, I don't see a lot of long-term Dmen that attempt to skate around a 5-man neutral zone trap like it's a beer league or have sub-par Dzone coverage.

Maybe 10% of NHL Dmen can get by on offensive production alone carrying them into a roster spot, and of those, the majority of them are #6 PP specialist who bounce around teams.

In short, it doesn't matter how much offense Dumba puts up, because his only road to the NHL is by being solid defensively and in the neutral zone. And that's still a huge question mark.
 

rynryn

Reluctant Optimist. Permanently Déclassé.
May 29, 2008
33,315
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Minny
Dumba will be a total bust, just like Granlund.
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Jarick

Doing Nothing
Being one of the people who is down, a major concern is that there are very little current NHL Dmen that would be a model for Dumba. There seems to be a lot of guys like him in junior that never pan out in the NHL.

I don't understand this. Why would a lack of comparable players be a negative against Dumba?

Or do you mean that players like him (offensive minded defensemen in juniors) don't pan out in the NHL?

If we compare to Subban:

Draft Year:
Subban 0.22gpg 0.82ppg
Dumba 0.29gpg 0.83ppg

Draft +1:
Subban 0.14gpg 0.79ppg
Dumba 0.26gpg 0.68ppg

Draft +2:
Subban 0.25gpg 1.36ppg
Dumba 0.31gpg 0.92ppg

Similar draft year production. Both players took a step back the next year, although Dumba was the better goal scorer. Both players rebounded the third year, although again Dumba was the better scorer.

It's all about next year to see where he's at in the AHL, but at least compared to one of the best defensemen in the league, Dumba isn't wildly off track.
 

J22*

Guest
I am saying that Subban is "the exception that proves the rule." I didn't say Subban wasn't good. I said he's beyond rare.

Subban is the only effective NHL Dman that can pull off a true "run-and-gun" style of play from the blueline. And he's still questioned about his positive-negative impact, even more once he gets his mega-contract.

In past eras, you saw a lot more Dmen like Subban. Blueliners who ran the offense for an entire team and punished opponents through big hits. But they also didn't play defense and turned the puck over a lot. Those eras are gone.

If Dumba turns into Subban, he'll be good. But if he is half-a-step below Subban, it's big step down.

Again, I am not understanding your thinking with the bolded. Dumba doesn't need to become a top 5 NHL'er for him to be an effective player. If becoming the next Subban or Doughty is the only way you can see him being a good pick, then my guess is that you will be dissapointed. There are countless quality dmen in the league that played similar styles to Dumba when they were younger.
 

nickschultzfan

Registered User
Jan 7, 2009
11,558
908
Again, I am not understanding your thinking with the bolded. Dumba doesn't need to become a top 5 NHL'er for him to be an effective player. If becoming the next Subban or Doughty is the only way you can see him being a good pick, then my guess is that you will be dissapointed. There are countless quality dmen in the league that played similar styles to Dumba when they were younger.
Actually, with his play style, he does. He is about as hit-or-miss of a prospect as you can have. His options are pretty much (A) being amazing, (B) a #6 PP specialist, or (C) a bust.

He's the blueline version of Nikita Filatov.
 

SunDin

Registered User
Dec 22, 2008
453
0
Isnt it fantastic that we are discussing future in a 19 y/o potential future top20 dman in the league while we have players like Brodin, Spurg, Granlund, Coyle, Nino, Haula still developing and getting better...
This team have a serious good looking future going on.
 

rynryn

Reluctant Optimist. Permanently Déclassé.
May 29, 2008
33,315
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Minny
it's just a little dumb to project doom for a high-end pick after how many pro games. don't you think?
 
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