Speculation: Trade Ideas and Free Agency VI - 2014 Offseason Edition

[Battle Hymns]

Kings fan coming in peace. Do you think you guys will puruse matt greene ? He's a UFA and from the area.

Pros:
great leader
tough as hell
excellent penalty killer

cons:
slow as hell
below average puck handling

Ive though for the last few months that he would be a good fit for you guys. What do you guys think ?

 

[Victorious Secret]

We'd be loaded on RHD. But I think we value strong skating on the backend. I wouldn't be surprised, but I doubt it.

 

[Battle Hymns]

We'd be loaded on RHD. But I think we value strong skating on the backend. I wouldn't be surprised, but I doubt it.

that was actually one of the reasons why I think he fits well on your team. you already have 5 defenders that can skate, so his inability to skate wouldn't be as big of an issue.

And his lack of skating is irrelevent when it comes to PKing, which is his biggest strength.

 

[Northland Wild Man]

What's the deal with the Avs and ROR going to arbitration? Does that mean he's probably gone after next season, or am I misunderstanding the situation?

 

[Victorious Secret]

What's the deal with the Avs and ROR going to arbitration? Does that mean he's probably gone after next season, or am I misunderstanding the situation?

He has two years until he is a UFA, I believe.

 

[J22*]

What's the deal with the Avs and ROR going to arbitration? Does that mean he's probably gone after next season, or am I misunderstanding the situation?

To retain his rights the Avs have to either extend a qualifying offer or take him to arbitration. The qualifying offer would have to be $6.5M but with arbitration they can ask for a 10 or 15% decrease(I'm not positive on the percentage). In a nutshell, the Avs dont want to lose his rights but also, dont want to pay him 6.5.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Stastny is 2 years younger. That's not "much younger".

Gives us a bigger window to work with. Stastny would be a great bridge guy for this organization.

We did get production from our centers, too. Koivu scored at .83 PPG, Granlund and Haula both had great seasons.

And Koivu played only 65 games. PPG can be skewed when you miss a chunk of the season. I mean Moulson was .65 PPG for the Wild and .68 PPG this season. Want to bring him back?

We don't - compared to even the Central? In terms of points? It's us or Nashville that is the worst.

Bryan Little - 23 goals, 41 assists
Matt Duchene - 23 goals, 47 assists
Tyler Senguin - 37 goals, 47 assists
David Backes - 27 goals, 30 assists

I mean Mike freaking Fisher has more goals than Koivu. That's just sad.

Koivu is not a goal scorer, and Granlund and Haula are still young, so I wouldn't worry too much about that. All of those three players are important for us, all in their own way. Just because a player isn't +20 goal scorer doesn't mean that he's a part of a problem (that I don't even think we have).

And that's the problem. We have been having this discussion regarding goals for over a decade now. We can't develop goal scorers, we have problems drafting them, the only way we have been able to find them is signing them to monstrous contracts or trading for them. And what is the common theme this off-season? GOALS. Why do you think the common fan wants Vanek? Because he's a goal scorer. BECAUSE THIS TEAM CAN'T DEVELOP THE TALENT or they don't demand more out of their players. After 5 years of having trouble finding some goal scorers, you would think maybe, maybe this organization would think, huh? Maybe it's not us that is having the trouble because we've brought in these guys like Heatley, like Havlat, like Setoguchi, like whoever the hell we've brought in and maybe think it's on the players? Maybe, just maybe? Nope, that would be too smart. We got to always find the hard way around things.

You know Brunette? You know when his best season was? Not with the Wild but with the Avalanche!

We don't have a problem scoring goals? We don't have a problem producing offense?

The Wild tied for 24th in the NHL this past season in goals for (199 non-shootout). That’s 33 more than a few years ago, but even Fletcher called that season “horrific” and said it’s imperative the Wild improves offensively in a conference where there are so many good teams.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/Russos_Rants.html

Also, you do realize how good guys like Granlund and Koivu are at setting guys up for goals, right? Koivu and Granlund had the most primary assists per 60 minutes, according to behindthenet.ca.

Great, let me know when they both stay healthy for an entire season. You do realize how good Brodziak was as a 1st line center a few years ago right?

Koivu had screws in his ankle. That's going to slow him down. Also, on an 82 game pace, Koivu would have had ~14 goals.

And that's going to be any better in the future?

Bringing in a proven goal scorer (Vanek?) to essentially replace Heatley adds more goals to the lineup than moving out Koivu in favor of Stastny.

Vanek makes no sense for a team trying to stay younger and develop the talent they have right now. What makes sense is demanding more out of the players currently here, both young and old and hope they continue developing. Internally, if we look at the team and look at the forwards;

Pominville - 30 goals
Parise - 35 goals (let's just hope he stays healthy) (+5)
Nino - 20 goals (+6)
Coyle - 18 goals (+6)
Fontaine - 15 goals (+2)
Koivu - 20 (+9)
Cooke - 8 (-2)
Granlund - 15 (+7)
Haula - 15 (+9)
Brodziak - 10 (+2)

Heatley - (-12)

That would give us ~32 more goals this season. Not terrible, but progression and I'd think that would be achievable.

Plus the goals Koivu keeps out of the Wild net over 82 outweigh the extra goals Stastny would produce. And paying Stastny $7M would take up more cap space than what Koivu makes now. So I don't know what you meant by flipping a center to free up a bit of cap room, or why that suggestion would be made when it's clear the Wild have plenty of cap room this year.

Yeah, again, let me know when Koivu plays 82 more games and isn't a nice +/-0 or a -4 in the playoffs.

As for cap space, miscalculated there.

 

[SunDin]

To retain his rights the Avs have to either extend a qualifying offer or take him to arbitration. The qualifying offer would have to be $6.5M but with arbitration they can ask for a 10 or 15% decrease(I'm not positive on the percentage). In a nutshell, the Avs dont want to lose his rights but also, dont want to pay him 6.5.

Just my opinion:
If Vanek gets 6-7mill/yeah,, ROR is definitley worth 6.5, he is a playoff beast, imagine him playing with Nino & Coyle, or why not with Parise & Pommer, well he´d probably fit with all our lines. oh my oh my!

 

[TZM]

One can dream. ROR would cost a few good draft picks with the overpayment, though. Two firsts, one 2nd and one 3rd round pick if he gets over $6.73m deal. Could be worth it. Under a $6.73m deal would be a no-brainer, at least for me.

 

[SunDin]

Gabirik could have been kindof interessting for the right price. But I changed my mind after he won the cup because:
1. Wanted him joining his old team Wild hungry for the cup.
2. He is old and will not get enough recovery & that probably will affect his offseason training = not good when the Wild are going far next year.


I do want atleast one of: Miller, Iginla, Stewart, Greene tho.

 

[DANOZ28]

stoned k , i think the young guns are capable of adding those goal totals but i just dont see koivu adding 9. cooke is capable of 10 again. if we keep zucker i think he could add 15G in place of heatley. our D had 29 last year (i think) it would be great if folin could chip in 4 or 5. if mgmt believes the young guys can step up then we really dont need to add anybody. cant wait to see what the team looks like around july 4th!

 

[SunDin]

Pominville - 30 goals
Parise - 35 goals (let's just hope he stays healthy) (+5)
Nino - 20 goals (+6)
Coyle - 18 goals (+6)
Fontaine - 15 goals (+2)
Koivu - 20 (+9)
Cooke - 8 (-2)
Granlund - 15 (+7)
Haula - 15 (+9)
Brodziak - 10 (+2)

Heatley - (-12)

That would give us ~32 more goals this season. Not terrible, but progression and I'd think that would be achievable.

The calculation looks accurate, but this is if everybody plays 82 game seasons right?
Thats highly unlikely, should probably count everybody on 75-game seasons to get a more accurate result.

 

[Jarick]

If I were Vanek, I would sign a one-year deal. He's going to get two kinds of offers, max contracts from terrible teams and middling contracts from good teams. Why not sign a one-year deal for $7-8m and try to pump your value back up? Hossa did it. Worked out well for him. Your value's going to be higher coming off a good year vs this playoff with the scrutiny.

Putting Nino and Coyle in the top six isn't far off from when the Wild would sign guys like Owen Nolan and Antti Miettinen to play in the top six. Both of them have a lot to show before they can be given the keys. They aren't inconsistent borderline-elite players, they are inconsistent borderline-top six players.

I took the numbers from last year, put in the veterans' career shooting percentage, gave everyone 82 games, and adjusted the TOI/G. I also took the kids and gave them all 10% shooting percentage and bumped up their shots per 60 minutes.

Here's what I got:

Parise = 35
Pominville = 29
Niederreiter = 19
Granlund = 17
Koivu = 16
Coyle = 16
Haula = 14
Zucker = 12
Fontaine = 10
Cooke = 10
Brodziak = 8
McCormick = 2

Suter = 7
Spurgeon = 7
Brodin = 6
Scandella = 4
Ballard = 2
Folin = 2
Stoner = 1

That's 217 goals, which is about mid-pack. I'm not sure how much more improvement you can have without giving the kids TONS of PP time, or them shooting well about 10%.

I mean, if you want Nino to hit 30 goals, you have to five him top unit PP time, assume he hits 12% of his shots, and have his shots per 60 go up from 7.5 to 9. Coyle's even further away than that.

That's why I don't see why you would just stand pat and worry about cap space in 3-5 years from guys who haven't shown that they will get paid big time.

Granlund is the only young player on the team who looks like he will make bank with his next contract. Brodin is pretty close but doesn't have the point totals to push his value up yet.

I still think you make a push to improve the team through FA if you can, then worry about contracts later. Think Chicago or New York. You can move salary if you need to move salary.

 

[Nharris31]

Kings fan coming in peace. Do you think you guys will puruse matt greene ? He's a UFA and from the area.

Pros:
great leader
tough as hell
excellent penalty killer

cons:
slow as hell
below average puck handling

Ive though for the last few months that he would be a good fit for you guys. What do you guys think ?

We don't need slow. What Kind of possession players is he?

 

[nickschultzfan]

The "trade" Koivu demands seem emotional and not thought out to completion. Let's breakdown the primary false naratives:

The Wild Could Do Without Koivu
Wrong. As Fletcher specifically stated, and the Stanley Cup Final (and the Oilers) demostrate, every contender needs (1) a big, strong center to match-up against an opponent's size and (2) faceoffs wins. And Koivu does both fantastically.

Look at the Wild's roster and prospect pool, and there doesn't seem to be anybody who would fill the void left my Koivu. Brodziak stopped improving and regressed, and Coyle would have to spend years praticing faceoffs to get close to Koivu's level. Beside that, there is almost nobody.

Even if Granlund and Haula both put up 80 points a season, the team would STILL need Koivu for the next 5 years.

Koivu doesn't produce enough offense
In the land of the blind, the 1-eye man is king. In the land of offensive famine, Koivu is considered a 1st line center. But he's not, and that is completely acceptable.

It is annoying that Koivu is on the 1st PP, but that's a statement of the team, not Koivu. He was drafted, projected, and developed into a two-way, 60-70 point, 2nd line center. He is what he is. Accept it.

Presonally, I was more upset by Koivu's backcheck-fail on Toews' goal than his lack of offensive production in the Hawks series.

Koivu prevents the team from getting somebody better/
Who? In reality, not in your head. Who really? In a trade, the Wild would never receive a "trade profit" to off-set the "loss of goodwill" that would happen through trading Koivu.

Koivu's cap hit is not preventing the Wild from signing any free agents. Think Koivu is deadweight? Backstrom, Harding, Brodziak, and Cooke are currently taking up 10.7 million/year in cap space. That's 16% of the cap on only 4 guys who would be back-ups and 4th liners on a contender. Plus, the Wild have plenty of cap space, at least over the next few years.

As for free agents, again I ask who? Stastny is not coming here, he is probably going to cost more than Koivu, and he would be completely lateral move (with a loss of size). Vanek has been discussed at length, and swap Koivu for Vanek would make the Wild worse.

The Wild Need an Upgrade at Center
Not if Granlund and Haula continue growing. If that happens, the Wild will be in a fantastic position, not just because we'll have 3 good centers, but because we'll have 3 good centers who all bring unique skill sets to the table. Granlund is a celebral, offensively gifted center. Haula is a speedy, fast-break, opportunistic center who can also play defense. And Koivu is strong, face-off winning, 2-way workhorse. And all three can chip in offense.

The Wild needs to upgrade not at center, but in other positions.

For the first time in the Wild's history, I'm super excited about our center depth.

 

[57special]

If Vanek signs a one year deal he should be committed. Now is the time to lock up a long term deal for himself. If he signs for one year and has a catastrophic injury his value plummets.

 

[Gaps]

The definition of a 1st line center seems to be around 1.0 PPG. If we go by that, the Wild have no 1st line center. Granlund is not one either and frankly I doubt he will ever be if your definition means he needs to get 80+ points. There are few players who score that much and most teams in the league have exactly zero players of that caliber. My point is that people are asking too much from Koivu, and many have unrealistic expectations of Granlund as well. In 5 years the same people will advocate for trading him because they're disappointed he never became a 'real 1st line center'.

And just for the record, Fletcher just made it quite clear that Koivu isn't going anywhere. So keep on dreaming.

 

[SunDin]

If Vanek signs a one year deal he should be committed. Now is the time to lock up a long term deal for himself. If he signs for one year and has a catastrophic injury his value plummets.

there same is true for the other way around. Vanek decreased his value this year.
If he sign for only a 1-year deal, he have the chance to boost his value again before signing a long term deal 2015...

 

[TheeNorthStar]

One can dream. ROR would cost a few good draft picks with the overpayment, though. Two firsts, one 2nd and one 3rd round pick if he gets over $6.73m deal. Could be worth it. Under a $6.73m deal would be a no-brainer, at least for me.

I think we could trade someone like Dumba or something, a Fwd and a few picks..

ROR would be overpayment, but ive brought up what would others give up for him but my posts are always ignored about him Id trade Mikko for him

I really want and like ROR but its a pipedream lol

 

[Jarick]

Vanek's not going to get a max deal. If he wants to play for a contender, he's going to have to take a cut on term and/or salary.

He's made over $50m over his career. He can either chase the big bucks and get another $50m or so from a team that doesn't have much of a supporting cast, or he can take half that much and spend the next five years chasing a Stanley Cup.

Most players on the wrong side of 30 who are already set for life are going to want the ring, not the cash.

If he's not happy with a 3-5 year deal totaling $20-25m or so, go for one year, $7-8m or so, and try to win a Cup and set yourself up with a good run.

 

[nickschultzfan]

Vanek will not sign a 1-year deal, unless he's really not getting the offers he wants and it's with an offensive team that will pump up his numbers. That's not the Wild.

 

[Jarick]

I really don't think Dumba has as much value as we think he does right now. Kid hasn't shown much at the junior level and flamed out multiple times at the WJC. He needs to have a good season before he's going to bring back a good NHL'er.

 

[nickschultzfan]

I really don't think Dumba has as much value as we think he does right now. Kid hasn't shown much at the junior level and flamed out multiple times at the WJC. He needs to have a good season before he's going to bring back a good NHL'er.

I agree. I think we drafted Dumba at a high point. His offensive and phyiscal skills are already peaked, and he's only going to be playing against better defenses against bigger opponents. In the NHL, he's not going to be laying big hits against 17-year-olds or breezing past inferior skaters.

 

[tomthestone*]

I agree. I think we drafted Dumba at a high point. His offensive and phyiscal skills are already peaked, and he's only going to be playing against better defenses against bigger opponents. In the NHL, he's not going to be laying big hits against 17-year-olds or breezing past inferior skaters.

Dumba surely has a long way to go to pan out as a seventh overall selection. But in response to the bolded portion: uhh what?

 

[Gaps]

Dumba surely has a long way to go to pan out as a seventh overall selection. But in response to the bolded portion: uhh what?

I agree. If anything, his hockey IQ has peaked. That doesn't mean he can't learn to play good D, but his natural hockey IQ won't get any better. Physically he is still developing.