Post-Game Talk: Trade Deadline 2024 (buy low, sell high) - poll added (3/8/24)

[Chimaera]

The team is awful. Anything that you can get decent value for should be on the table to move.

Yes, they should want to try and bring back parts that shorten a retool / rebuild (that’s unfortunately the course they’re gonna go) but at the end of the day, anything that has a return, it should happen.

Any of the UFAs need to all go. Get something instead of letting them walk in the summer for nothing.

 

[Random schmoe]

I dreamt that they traded Oshie to Detroit.

 

[g00n]

See, this where we forget our Caps history. We’ve had a quite a few players that had similar “xGAF” quota issues. Think Semin, or recent vintage.

Best way to handle xGAF is to only give short term deals. Money can be a tad higher, as long as the term is Uber-short.

So most I’d do is 2yrs. And I’d do 4.5 or so a year. If he likes being here and likes Carberry, and trusts management, then it could be a good set up for him.

And if so, why not?

I suspect Mantha values comfort and stability more than anything else, so he might take a deal to remain in DC if it has term.

But Gmbm should be wary of that given Mantha's history of running at 70% for most of the year/contract (I'm not arguing fancy stats with the usual proselytizers...the team and player have all acknowledged this as @Roshi said).

Mantha has never really tested the FA market afaik. He'll have earned around $31M in cash by the end of the year according to spotrac. He's likely set for life. Does he want to move around? Explore the true FA boundaries for the first time?

He's kind of playing like it but I'm not sure if it's for a new deal here or elsewhere. He'll turn 30 by next season and at that point won't want to be negotiating a EOL contract that takes him to 35+. Some teams might not be willing to go that far based on the 30yr old milestone alone, and he probably doesn't want to have to put out in another "show me" year so soon.

So I don't think either side will prefer a 1 or even 2yr deal as they would need to be constructed. The Caps might like to chop 2M off his salary and have him at 4.5M, but imo there's no way he's playing for something like that.

I see him asking for 4-5yrs min, and close to what he's making give or take 1M. Caps should trade him now if they have any intel to that effect.

 

[trick9]

Anthony Mantha interview before the season:

“My personal goal is 60 points this year and then to sign a long-term contract somewhere. I must have a big season – this is the last year of my contract and I would like to bounce back. It’s practically a second chance after last season. I had other less good seasons in the NHL or AHL so I know how to come back strong.”

Chance of GMBM signing him to a long-term contract... or even to a contract above 1-year? I'd say below 5%. Mantha is 30 now. Everyone, around the league knows what kind of player he is. Also they know when he's motivated... when it's a contract year.

I'm going to feel sorry for whichever team is giving him a long-term contract in the summer. Personally, i'd love for him to sign with the Penguins for say... 4 years.

 

[pman25]

I do think Mantha gets four years on the open market. But you never know, sometimes spots for wingers dry up quick with other FAs, internal promotions, and trades

 

[g00n]

Personally, i'd love for him to sign with the Penguins for say... 4 years.

I think you just called it.

 

[Roshi]

I think you just called it.

It does make sense, as they will likely try to replace Guentzel out of the thin free agency.

 

[marcel snapshot]

If Dubas gives Mantha 4 years, and people still call him smart,

If he’s actually smart, then bringing in Karlsson was done to appease those in the Burgh who refused to admit that it was over for the core group. It’s clear now it’s over, and he has to get young fast (and young and fast), and he’s desperate already (claiming Matthew Phillips after what he failed to show with the Caps suggests he’s a guy with a bad hand). In no world is Anthony Mantha the answer.

 

[Chimaera]

Mantha's last month or two is likely more important than the first. He can score. That means a bit on this anemic offense. But how much money, and longer term, will likely be decided on if anyone things some of it's sustainable.

Thin market or no, it's a lot to commit to a guy who hasn't really produced in Washington.

 

[toolboyy]

Trade:

Anthony Mantha - UFA
* Shouldn't be re-signed, since he wants term. I'd be fine with him back on a 1-year contract but even for that, he's going to want to test the market first. Get a pick in return, instead of letting him walk for free. Another point: Shed some cap so that Pacioretty's bonuses don't hit us for next season.

Joel Edmundson - UFA
* Good veteran. I think there is a good chance he'll return what we paid for him. Not going to miss him.


Explore:

Nic Dowd
* See if they can get the return they want. If it's 1st? Done. If it's 2nd? No reason to trade him now, when it's likely you can get that year from now. 2nd + another pick? Ehhh... that's tough. I'd do 2 2nd rounders. 2nd + 3rd would be a tough choice.

Charlie Lindgren
* Goalie market is kind of weird now. I think there would be lots of teams interested in Lindgren, but that said, i don't think there is a team who would pay a 1st for him since he hasn't been a starter for long and he doesn't have any Playoff experience. I'm not sure it's worth it to move him for less than that unless you are tanking next season.

Nick Jensen
* Again, depends on the offers. Does he return a 1st? I'd move him for 1st without retention. I might move him for 2nd + 3rd without retention. If it's with retention... i don't think just 1st would be enough for me to waste a retention slot for 2½ years.

Trevor van Riemsdyk
* I'll keep this short. I think Jensen has more value than him on the market. I wouldn't want to move them both now. That's why i think TvR likely stays.

Max Pacioretty - UFA
* Depends on what he wants to do. Does he want to get traded? If so, it's easy to move him. If he's 50-50, explore the market. I'd say the threshold in that scenario to move him would be 3rd rounder. That's what i'd move him for if a team where he wanted to go would offer that. If he wants to stay, i'd be happy to keep him, but honestly, i doubt it.

Beck Malenstyn
* Included him here since he's been mentioned. He's an RFA and a player i'd like to keep. No reason not to atleast listen though if someone wants to grossly overpay.


Wishful thinking -dump:

Darcy Kuemper
* Like i said, goalie market is weird right now. Would a team take him given he has experience as a Cup -winning goalie? I doubt it, but i'd definitely explore that and atleast call the Devils if they had any interest in that if they don't get Markstrom. It would be great to get rid of this contract and move along with Lindgren/Stevenson -tandem.

Evgeny Kuznetsov
* Who knows? I don't think this is happening at the TDL. I wouldn't rule out him being traded in the summer though, after his bonus is paid. Him retained for a guy like Armia? Habs love their reclamation projects and Monahan worked out well. Otherwise, it's buy-out time.


Targets:

TBL 2026 1st rounder (Package deal? Jensen+MaxPac? I'd love it. Tampa isn't going to be good in 2026)

Arthur Kaliyev

Casey Mittelstadt

2024 2nd rounder (we don't have one)

2024/2025 1st rounder

Martin Necas (more of a summer target)

Noah Hanifin (Summer target, i wouldn't pay assets for him)


I didn't include Aube-Kubel as Carberry seems to like him as a part of the 4th line, and i don't think he'd return enough (3rd) to justify moving him.​

I'm really in favor of trading for picks in drafts 2-4 years in the future. However, 2026 1st rounders are going to be tough to acquire right now because that's the Gavin McKenna draft.

 

[zappa4ever]

TDL itself is almost always a yawner the last several years

So I expect starting today we're going to see some action

Curious when WSH's deals start happening

 

[bacchist]

I'm really in favor of trading for picks in drafts 2-4 years in the future. However, 2026 1st rounders are going to be tough to acquire right now because that's the Gavin McKenna draft.

It blows my mind that we identify 1OA picks so early.

 

[Roshi]

And I would remind everyone of my pet project... get Leason back from AMA for a 6th or whatever. He was part of a plan to pair with Protas (they were pure sympatico gold together back in Prince Albert). Would love to see them give that a shot (over Phillips) and if nothing else he could help in HER if we have a lot of Bears up/ineligible.

Linemates All Along The Way – The Hockey Journey of Brett Leason and Aliakei Protas

Photo: Prince Albert Raiders This is the story of two young hockey players, born just 20 months apart and nearly half a world away from each other, who would eventually become teammates and linemat…

novacapsfans.com

Quote:

2018-19 Season with Prince Albert Raiders​

Leason and Protas first became teammates with the Prince Albert Raiders for the 2018-19 season. Leason blossomed offensively and scored 36 goals with 53 assists in 55 games. Protas, who was generally one of his linemates, scored 11 goals with 29 assists for 40 points overall. Leason won the team’s Dave Balon Award for Leading Scorer.
"

How about Milano for Leason.. Both teams get back a guy who they know very well. Milano had chemistry with Zegras and Leason had chemistry with Protas.

I know Milano is the "better player" here, but he has two years of contract left and I sort of feel like his spot should be up for taking for one of Miro, Leonard, Dube, Frank etc., and basically you could try to find another competitor for the spot with less than 1,9.

Leason-Protas-Malenstyn.

Really dont mind Sonny hanging around either, he has been worth his presence and that hit is easily buriable if he loses his spot. Just a thought.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Alexeyev has shown nothing to this point. No thank you.

He needs an extended sink-or-swim run to attempt to show something. That way, they'd get a better idea what they have going forward.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

The more I think about it, the more I'm for moving Mantha. He'll be a top-2 goal scorer available with Guentzel, and should fetch a return that far outpaces his actual value.

20 goal scorers ain't what they used to be -- there are 71 players in the league that have at least 20 goals right now, and 130-140 on pace to break that threshold. 20 just looks like such a productive member given the Caps' offensive struggles.

 

[Cappy76]

Coaching for some players is a truly beautiful thing.

I'd be more willing to accept that as the case if it was just Lavi he's had the same issues with. But Wings fans told us the same when we got him - lacks motivation but when he's motivated he's good otherwise leaves a lot to be desired.

 

[Langway]

The more I think about it, the more I'm for moving Mantha. He'll be a top-2 goal scorer available with Guentzel, and should fetch a return that far outpaces his actual value.

I'm not sure that's how GMs perceive him, though, unfortunately. He certainly should have more value than Tarasenko, in part because they're letting him pick his spot, but if Toffoli is available he'll draw more interest IMO. Then there are non-rentals like Buchnevich and Vatrano that complicate things. Eberle may also move if he doesn't re-sign so, I mean, it's not obviously true. Mantha should net a second plus with retention I guess but isn't he worth more than that to them? Say if Mantha were playing elsewhere putting up these 5v5 numbers on a bad team. Wouldn't he naturally become a prime target? And they even have actual established chemistry with the McMichael line yet no apparent desire for an extension. Shrug. There are obvious concerns committing to him but I'm not sure maximum flexibility is the windfall they're hoping it to be. If these final few years are largely about hedging for the future thinking they won't suck post-Ovi then they've got another thing coming. Treating these last couple years as more of a chore to get through rather than something to be embraced/supported adequately seems like the opposite of respect.

I can buy them going bigger game hunting than Mantha in UFA but it will be a pretty short list, particularly if they stay true to not wanting older options like Stamkos, Marchessault, Duchene or Toffoli. After Reinhart there's Guentzel and arguably that's it. So either they'll need to back off from that stance or rely heavily on the trade market. I've got to believe they'll ultimately budge and won't be so against adding vets. The issue really isn't even about age at all, it's about quality. It's also at this point also about culture and it's hard to say whether they get what's needed to fix that. Their big move last summer was hiring Carbery and about all it's done is highlight how dysfunctional they are 5v5. Clearing Mantha out, one of their better 5v5 players, just makes that task harder. It's understandable all things considered but you wonder when or if they're capable of taking some big steps forward. You wonder if they're capable of really turning it around other than happening upon the next wave via earlier draft picks.

 

[trick9]

Devils GM just said that they aren't shopping Toffoli, so that's one off the market. Tarasenko is on the market still but with trade protection so it's a limited market for him.

 

[HeyMattyB]

Devils GM just said that they aren't shopping Toffoli, so that's one off the market. Tarasenko is on the market still but with trade protection so it's a limited market for him.

He said they weren't shopping him, but that doesn't mean he's not available, and teams are calling about him, and trade options are definitely still a possibility. Plus, contract negotiations don't currently seem to be going anywhere.

The Devils, then, are more likely setting up to be sellers than buyers by Friday’s trade deadline. With leading goal scorer Tyler Toffoli set to become a UFA this summer, his future will be a hot topic over the next 72 hours, and Fitzgerald addressed it head-on Tuesday.

“I’m not shopping Tyler Toffoli,” he told reporters. “Tyler and I sat together in L.A. [during the Devils’ road trip last week], we had a great talk. Tyler knows how much I’d like to bring him back. But unfortunately right now there’s a possible term difference [in negotiation]. That doesn’t mean we can’t revisit this past the deadline if he’s still there, or in the offseason.

“But the reality is, teams have called on him. And what a return looks like, I wouldn’t be giving away a player, my leading scorer, just to gain future assets. But the reality is, those future assets could help us down the road. I’ll know more in the next three days where we’re at.”

 

[Chimaera]

If a team is going to offer a 1st (or even a 2nd and something) for Mantha, you take it and run.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

I dreamt that they traded Oshie to Detroit.

I'd prefer not dealing with Yzerman unless BMAC has both his hands on his own wallet!

 

[Silky mitts]

Me if they resign Mantha and block Leonard

 

[twabby]

Yes, Mantha has been good this year.

He was not before and making an opposite case is just another red mark for reading at the GAR or whatever else %-statline like bible.

His coach, his exec's, and himself literally just went through mental professionals to find out whats wrong with this game the past couple years trying to fix it. And assumably they did do something right with that arc, as Mantha has been able to bounce back (for his contract year).

He was sitting healthy scratched and he had no complaints because he himfself agreed he was playing that bad.

I guess I hope they had the knowledge of GAR datasheet so they didnt have to go through all that other stuff, when nothing was ever actually wrong.

Let's see how many teams will let Phillips go for free before someone in NHL sees his advanced stats and understands how good he is. So far noone in Calgary, Washington and Pittsburgh have been smart enough to take a look at the stats.

I'm sure he was disappointed in his performance but he was also never put in a position to thrive under Laviolette. Yet despite this his impacts were still solid, and he did go out and improve himself. Now under a coach that trusts him and puts him in a position to succeed he's been great.

I'd much rather give Mantha a chance at a reasonable contract rather than get some overpriced UFA like Guentzel or spending assets at wing. They have too many other pressing needs (1C, 1D) to be wasting resources when they have a viable internal option that has a good rapport with the coach and good chemistry with linemates that figure into the future.

 

[Neil Racki]

How about Milano for Leason.. Both teams get back a guy who they know very well. Milano had chemistry with Zegras and Leason had chemistry with Protas.

Really dont mind Sonny hanging around either, he has been worth his presence and that hit is easily buriable if he loses his spot. Just a thought.

I like Sonny
I like his contract
I like his hair
I like how he shows up to play
I do also like Leason

Poor mans Strome

Adding more Sonny type players and contract is what im hoping for

 

[Roshi]

I'm sure he was disappointed in his performance but he was also never put in a position to thrive under Laviolette. Yet despite this his impacts were still solid, and he did go out and improve himself. Now under a coach that trusts him and puts him in a position to succeed he's been great.

I'd much rather give Mantha a chance at a reasonable contract rather than get some overpriced UFA like Guentzel or spending assets at wing. They have too many other pressing needs (1C, 1D) to be wasting resources when they have a viable internal option that has a good rapport with the coach and good chemistry with linemates that figure into the future.

Im not sure where you base this. He got all the chances and positions there was to get it going. He played with everyone and everywhere. As a stat master analyst of our boards you propably do know his ATOI was higher during Laviolette than what it has been this season with Carbery.

I do agree with you that it could be he drives under Carbery and their chemistry could work going forward too, but judging his time as a total Washinghton thats not a bet id take, especially if you are able to get a 1st or close to it in a trade.

You like to put curves on player developement and make conclusions on players declining by age and averages. I sort of feel like you are making exception with Mantha by only judging him for this season.