I would move Lindgren for 2nd at this point. He has done great this season, but doesnt seem as a long term option as he is already in his 30's and if he keeps his current level he is in for a big raise. Also having Kuemper with 3 more years to go, and Stevenson brewing and Shephard propably ready to step in as backup right away. And if he doesnt keep his current level, well, this is the high point on selling him. But anything less than a 2nd and its an easy decision.
Obviously would want to move Kuemper before Lindgren no matter the return, but thats not likely to happen. Kuemper is just too mediocre currently for someone to jump on that term left.
I was opposed moving Dowd for anything less than a 1st earlier, but seeing Lapierre, Sgarbossa and Protas all doing well while Dowd being injured, im leaning on accepting less. Dowd can likely return a 2nd, or couple later picks next at next years TDL too, but maybe it holds some value to open his spot for our internal options aswell. Right now im ok either way, keeping him or trading him, as long as a possible trade atleast isnt less than a 2nd and hopefully a +.
I do not want Mantha back next year. And even if we believe this is who he is going forward and would entertain him coming back, we can round back to it in the summer as he is very likely going for free agency anyways. But if you want to extend, the best way is to offer him 'take it or leave it' right now with a two day deadline, and then go shopping him hard if he doesnt take it. Im also fine keeping him as our own rental if the return isnt atleast 2nd+, but we need to atleast try to get the max value out of him when we have the chance.
If its true that Jensen is getting interest, we should listen. This has been a down year, Im not sure I want to wait to see if it is just a phase or a trend, because if its a trend you are not getting interest at next years TDL anymore. Maybe he doesnt fit Carbery's system and isnt as good as he was because of that? Or just getting the age and miles? BM has been finding these Jensens and TVR's and Kempnys and the list goes on, so im not overly worried he couldnt replace Jensen from free agency or a dumpster bin bargain with the 4 mil cap hit he has.
Pacioretty is easy. If he wants to stay you keep him, if he wants to go you trade to whereever he wants to go and the return doesnt really matter. Thats doing a solid for well respected veteran and the return is not "much" in any case. That will help us signing more well respected veterans in the future. And we are at a place where we can use well respected veterans for both, campaigning for desperate battle to playoffs in 2025, and going through retool/rebuild in 2028-2050.
Edmundson is the most obvious one. Suprised if there isnt some team willing to throw a 3rd or atleast a 4th for the qualities Edmundson brings for a playoffs-run, and you just take it. He isnt really missed in the lineup, you gain a pick, and get to give games for AA/Bear , who both need it.
Noone is offering anything for Kuznetsov. Period. We can stop dreaming about that. Thats a mess that will wait to be solved (or remain unsolved) in the summer. We see what happens when he shows up to Hershey and go from there.
Wouldnt be suprised if someone offers up a 6th or 7th for NAK aswell. Fine either way, taking or not taking it. Malenstyn we should keep, as he is familiar face and known force for all the guys who are coming up from Hershey. And an example that we trust and reward our own Hershey guys. Not interested at all trading him for a "whocares"-pick.
Bubbling under, they might be open for a bigger trade that would include players who we dont think are going anywhere. CMM and Lappy kind of compete for the same spot, sorts of. Alexeyev hasnt taken his regular spot. Fehervary is a piece that would bring solid value in a big time hockey trade, and is kind of in a spot where we dont still really know what we have in him. Etc. One thing thats propable, is that not a lot of these "young guys" that have just cracked the roster are going to be there through the whole retool/rebuild anyways, as they are couple years early with their entrance. They will be older and they will be RFA's and UFA's and through couple more TDLs and drafts before we get there, so even if they are doing some progress and just making their way to NHL, they propably shouldnt be seen as "core pieces" or "untouchables" at this point. If the right deal comes around.. --> but all this is not as much a TDL thing, something like this normally goes down at the summer.
Edit. for overall idea, I dont have a problem if we decide to go for the desperation chance of pushing it to the playoffs and would love to see us making it. But in general im aware of the mathematics and being realistic about it im ready to emotionally give up for the season and regroup our assets. We had some nice moments and it wasnt that far off that we could have made it with a lot of positives on some younger guys getting their feet wet and even successing in the NHL, but this just wasnt our season. Next summer is interesting as we have a lot of flexibility and playing our cards right we have potential to gain a lot of both, draft capital and other pieces to work out to strenghtening the roster also for both, next year and future beyond that.
For the max values we could gain;
Mantha @50% + a 3rd --> 1st
Dowd @50% --> 2x 2nd + with conditions to get more or higher picks
Lindgren --> 2nd
Jensen --> 2nd + 3rd or something around that
Edmundsson --> 3rd
NAK --> 6th
For next year that would leave us with
Ovie-Strome-x
x-x-Wilson
Milano-CMM-Oshie
Protas-Lapierre-Malenstyn
Sgarbossa
Fehervary-Carlson
Sandin-x
TvR-Bear
Alexeyv
Kuemper
Shephard/Stevenson
with around 17 millions to spend.
And with a 10x top60 pick for the next two years.
Turned out I was right that time actually.
