Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLVII

[AKL]

Last year Ek was second on the team in A/60 behind Fiala and people probably complained that he can't be a top six center because he's awful at scoring goals. This year he led the team in G/60 (yes, ahead of Kaprizov), and we're complaining that he can't be a top six center because he's awful at passing.

 

[Wasted Talent]

I see no harm in trying Ek in a more offensive role. There's plenty of time to experiment with lines early in a standard 82 game season.

 

[MNNumbers]

From Guerin's quotes, he's high on Ek because of effort first (3 blocked shots his first shift and I knew that's a guy we want on our team). That says more about Guerin than it does about Ek, I think.

As for last year's numbers: You can't put too much stock in a season in which his goals trended much higher than normal, and AT THE SAME TIME....there were no assists from March 3rd onward. These things are statistical anomalies, of course.

Lines......are often a bit fluid. I suppose that we don't know what we really have in Ek (as far as offensive potential) or Sturm (flashes of some really good things later in the year), so we really don't know how it shakes out.

I would be happy with Kaprisov at 7.3M/yr for 4 years, Fiala at 7 for as long as possible. And, I would still prefer if Dumba's cap hit were available for a short term C contract at 5M/yr......

Kap-Krejci-Zucc
Boldy-Ek-Fiala
Foligno-Sturm-Greenway
Hartman-Rossi-?? (Parise?)
Which costs about 51M and transitions, perhaps, to:
Kap-Rossi-Zucc
Boldy-Krejci-Fiala
GREEF
Hartman-Sturm-Parise
In the course of the year.....
That would be fine with me. With a 22.9M Top4 D and 2 young guys on the 3rd pair, and a 4.4M goalie situation, that amounts to:
25 for D and 4.4 for G so it's right at the limit. You could buy out Parise, and keep Rask, and save 1M in space as well. The C in this scenario is probably a 1 year contract, though, because your cap space is gone after that.

 

[Digitalbooya]

And yet has a career high of 30pts that pro-rates to 43pts in an 82gm season.

I don't know about you, but I expect top 6 centers to get well into the 50's myself.

It's incredibly hard to get power play points when you are 8th/9th on your team for pp toi/gp amongst just forwards. Ek had 28 ES points this season. As reference, that's the same as Krecji, one more than Miller, Horvat, and Kopitar, and four more than Hughes, Roslovic, Couture, and Bennett. Other notable names with less ES points are Trocheck, Kadri, J Staal, Hayes, Statsny, Kuznetsov, Dvorak, Monahan, Stamkos (same ES point pace), and Larkin.

 

[MNNumbers]

It's incredibly hard to get power play points when you are 8th/9th on your team for pp toi/gp amongst just forwards. Ek had 28 ES points this season. As reference, that's the same as Krecji, one more than Miller, Horvat, and Kopitar, and four more than Hughes, Roslovic, Couture, and Bennett. Other notable names with less ES points are Trocheck, Kadri, J Staal, Hayes, Statsny, Kuznetsov, Dvorak, Monahan, Stamkos (same ES point pace), and Larkin.

Now that is.....interesting. It might require a little more thinking.

I do think there is an argument to be had for how people play the game, which makes come forwards 'match' well and others not. But I don't think it's easy to see that until to try them together.

I am fine with Ek in a larger role, but I would still like to see one of the above (Miller, Harvat, Krejci) find his way here because we don't know how quickly Rossi gets up to speed.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Now that is.....interesting. It might require a little more thinking.

I do think there is an argument to be had for how people play the game, which makes come forwards 'match' well and others not. But I don't think it's easy to see that until to try them together.

I am fine with Ek in a larger role, but I would still like to see one of the above (Miller, Harvat, Krejci) find his way here because we don't know how quickly Rossi gets up to speed.

I think it does bring up the point that Ek is putting up top 6 numbers given his usage and opportunities. The only thing that is lacking is his power play points and that is arguably just due to lack of opportunity.

No doubt we need another top 6 center.

 

[absolute garbage]

I think it does bring up the point that Ek is putting up top 6 numbers given his usage and opportunities. The only thing that is lacking is his power play points and that is arguably just due to lack of opportunity.

No doubt we need another top 6 center.

There's no doubt that Ek would put up better numbers if he had a bigger role on the PP, but that doesn't mean it would be good for the team. Personally I don't really see Ek's skillset be that useful or effective on the PP, and the additional points he would personally get from those minutes could mean a worse PP and less points for the team.

What Wild needs is a top offensive centre who makes the PP click, and let Ek do his thing elsewhere where his skillset shines. If you post 20-20 ES statlines and get positive results playing hardest minutes on the team, that's great.

 

[Mickey the mouse]

The bottom line to every player.

Players play to get paid. There is a CBA for a reason. Players put in their time to become UFA's so they can maximize their value whether it's with their current team or on the open market. If an Org or GM wants to keep that player and not let them exercise their right of UFA the player needs to be compensated , most cases over compensated, for those years he's giving up of not seeing his value on open market. this is just 1 example.

Trouba was to become an UFA, had gone to Arbitration 2 times and had no intention on resigning in Winnipeg. Peg trades him to NYR and NYR signs him to 7 yr / 56, 8 million a year.

Both player and team got fair value.

Panarin
Columbus decided NOT to trade him at deadline. Got absolutely zero in return for a super star player. Panarin signs a 7yr / 81.5 deal, 11.642 a year with NYR and gets paid on open market. Player gets what he wants.
Columbus has their d@#$ in their hand with nothing in return.

From JEE, Fiala and Kap point of view .... Why would they give up a single year of UFA if they are not signed to max 7 or 8 yr deals and max $$ whatever that may be when they can just exercise their rights to take them to UFA in 2 or 3 years ?

 

[Bazeek]

The bottom line to every player.

Players play to get paid. There is a CBA for a reason. Players put in their time to become UFA's so they can maximize their value whether it's with their current team or on the open market. If an Org or GM wants to keep that player and not let them exercise their right of UFA the player needs to be compensated , most cases over compensated, for those years he's giving up of not seeing his value on open market. this is just 1 example.

Trouba was to become an UFA, had gone to Arbitration 2 times and had no intention on resigning in Winnipeg. Peg trades him to NYR and NYR signs him to 7 yr / 56, 8 million a year.

Both player and team got fair value.

Panarin
Columbus decided NOT to trade him at deadline. Got absolutely zero in return for a super star player. Panarin signs a 7yr / 81.5 deal, 11.642 a year with NYR and gets paid on open market. Player gets what he wants.
Columbus has their d@#$ in their hand with nothing in return.

From JEE, Fiala and Kap point of view .... Why would they give up a single year of UFA if they are not signed to max 7 or 8 yr deals and max $$ whatever that may be when they can just exercise their rights to take them to UFA in 2 or 3 years ?

This is all fair in terms of why the AAV is higher than some of us expected. My questions are why it was so important to get all 8 years and what it's going to cost Guerin over the next 4, especially this summer. The cap situation with Ek projected at $4.5m was already hard to figure out, so while $5.25m isn't a lot higher it just makes things that much tighter.

Maybe the talks with Kaprizov changed things, though. If they were offering Kaprizov $8m+ on an 8 year deal and that fell through, maybe his AAV comes down by $1m on a 4 year deal. Now you can add more to Eriksson-Eks cap hit and buy those extra UFA years

I still worry about Fiala, though.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

This is all fair in terms of why the AAV is higher than some of us expected. My questions are why it was so important to get all 8 years and what it's going to cost Guerin over the next 4, especially this summer. The cap situation with Ek projected at $4.5m was already hard to figure out, so while $5.25m isn't a lot higher it just makes things that much tighter.

Maybe the talks with Kaprizov changed things, though. If they were offering Kaprizov $8m+ on an 8 year deal and that fell through, maybe his AAV comes down by $1m on a 4 year deal. Now you can add more to Eriksson-Eks cap hit and buy those extra UFA years

I still worry about Fiala, though.

A good team would be able to play Fiala quite easily. We just have to give his money to Parise instead

 

[Bazeek]

New thread.