Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLVII

[Legegendsofthenorth]

Hey I'm all for this too as I like his relationship with Kaprizov since he landed. Only a positive influence and good overall player.

If we maneuver to keep him he might take a real nice deal next go around barring a blowup in the final years but I want to lose at worst Soucy or Greenway by doing so. If we can maneuver the expansion better by dealing Dumba then unfortunately this is a business. Especially if it somehow contributed to sticking a better player in between Kap.

We are going to lose someone to expansion. Don't get cute about it. Keep your most valuable players and let the chips fall where they may.

I would not trade Dumba for expansion purposes. I would trade him for a good C though

Click to read more...

 

[grN1g]

We are going to lose someone to expansion. Don't get cute about it. Keep your most valuable players and let the chips fall where they may.

I would not trade Dumba for expansion purposes. I would trade him for a good C though

Understandable and I honestly wouldn't be mad about this outcome. Although sentiment for the time being is not let Dumba go for nothing.

 

[Legegendsofthenorth]

Understandable and I honestly wouldn't be mad about this outcome. Although sentiment at the time it seems for the time being is not let Dumba go for nothing.

Then go 4-4-1

I would accept anyone we lost in the scenario without being heartbroken

Let the bandaid get ripped off and move on

 

[57special]

So here's a piece of gossip from a former OHL scout and the Bruins board's resident insider: Minnesota is apparently one of 4 teams that OEL would waive for. And apparently Arizona might get all kinds of flexible about the retention if it means they can save some real money.

That obviously goes nowhere even with 50% retention, but it's nice to feel liked.

I wonder how Parise feels about the desert...

Maybe he is putting MN on his list because he thinks there is no way that they will trade for him. That's why Staal put BUF on his list.

 

[AKL]

Maybe he is putting MN on his list because he thinks there is no way that they will trade for him. That's why Staal put BUF on his list.

It's a full NMC. He controls where he wants to go. There's no reason for him to pull that maneuver.

 

[Bazeek]

Alright, so if one wants to get crazy with this OEL thing, here's an idea

Here's OEL's contract structure for the next few years (link):

SEASON	CLAUSE	CAP HIT	AAV	P. BONUSES	S. BONUSES	BASE SALARY	TOTAL SALARY	MINORS SALARY
2019-20	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$0	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	$8,000,000
2020-21	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$4,000,000	$4,000,000	$8,000,000	$8,000,000
2021-22	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$0	$10,500,000	$10,500,000	$10,500,000
2022-23	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$5,250,000	$5,250,000	$10,500,000	$10,500,000
2023-24	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$0	$10,500,000	$10,500,000	$10,500,000
2024-25	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$0	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	$8,000,000
2025-26	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$0	$5,250,000	$5,250,000	$5,250,000
2026-27	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$0	$5,250,000	$5,250,000	$5,250,000
TOTAL		$66,000,000	$66,000,000	$0	$9,250,000	$56,750,000	$66,000,000	$66,000,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In terms of real money, next year is the one where it jumps from $8m to $10.5m. Allegedly it's these next 3 years at $10.5m that the Coyotes really want to avoid, and that makes a lot of sense.

Unfortunately, in addition to his full NMC, OEL hasn't been playing up to his cap hit. So he's drastically narrowed the list of teams, and those teams don't necessarily have a lot of space to be committing to long term deals like this. In order to grease the wheels, Arizona is (allegedly) willing to retain substantial cap here... as long as it's saving them real money.

How do they do that? The proposal from the Bruins board (which I think makes sense) is that the acquiring team pays for the next 3 years, and the Yotes pay for the last 3. That's 38% retention, which brings his cap hit down to $5.15m, and saves Arizona piles of real cash over the next 3 years.

It still doesn't make sense to me for the Wild to acquire him... unless we could send back Parise with the agreement that Arizona buys him out. This allows Parise to sign elsewhere, which is what he probably wants, and (hopefully) avoids recapture penalties for Minnesota. It would saddle Arizona with some dead cap for a few years, but let's again assume that it's really the real money they care about:

Parise's buyout:

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( MIN)
2021-22	$6,000,000	$7,538,461	$0	$833,333	$833,333	$5,166,667	$2,371,794
2022-23	$2,000,000	$7,538,461	$0	$833,333	$833,333	$1,166,667	$6,371,794
2023-24	$1,000,000	$7,538,461	$0	$833,333	$833,333	$166,667	$7,371,794
2024-25	$1,000,000	$7,538,461	$0	$833,333	$833,333	$166,667	$7,371,794
2025-26	$0	$0	$0	$833,333	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
2026-27	$0	$0	$0	$833,333	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
2027-28	$0	$0	$0	$833,333	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
2028-29	$0	$0	$0	$833,333	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
TOTAL	$10,000,000	$30,153,844	$0	$6,666,667	$6,666,667	$3,333,333	$26,820,508

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So it would cost about $6.67m in actual cash, which is still $24.83m less than the next 3 years of OEL's contract. Plus, unless I'm misunderstanding the rules here, that $6.67m is spread out over 8 years, which makes this a lot more comfortable if they're primarily worried about the next 3-5. Arizona does take a lot of dead cap coming back, especially from 2022-2025, but if they're looking to run a leaner ship and rebuild a little that might not be a big deal.

Now obviously this ridiculous deal isn't just OEL for Parise straight across. OEL retained down to $5.15m seems like an okay cap hit to me and would probably be worth something on the open market... except that he has that NMC and will only waive for 4 teams, so we're not looking at an open market. I honestly don't have any clue what the rest of this trade would look like or if what I have above is even viable... but I'm getting punchy enough with Parise that I'm willing to get creative.

 

[57special]

Then there would the on ice problem of having two declining Dmen in Suter and OEL, and possibly three in a couple few years in Spurgeon.
if OEL played C it would be one thing....maybe. I mean, Guerin turfed out Staal who only had one year at 3.25M left. Don't see where he would sign up for six year of OEL.

 

[Bazeek]

Then there would the on ice problem of having two declining Dmen in Suter and OEL, and possibly three in a couple few years in Spurgeon.
if OEL played C it would be one thing....maybe. I mean, Guerin turfed out Staal who only had one year at 3.25M left. Don't see where he would sign up for six year of OEL.

One big question I have is how much OEL is declining. If he's just declining from an $8m defenseman to a $5-6m dollar defenseman then it's not as big a deal. Still, 3 dmen over 30 and 4 with NMCs isn't great.

To me the question is whether it's a bigger problem than Parise.

 

[MNNumbers]

I think OEL is wrong (although getting Schmaltz, a center averaging about .6 pts/gm is a good deal if he is part of the trade), simply because it leaves us stick with the same 27+M committed to the top$ defense that we have now. And, that really isn't the right distribution.

Now, is there a deal that get Schmaltz here? And, for those who don't like his game, why not?

 

[Bazeek]

I think OEL is wrong (although getting Schmaltz, a center averaging about .6 pts/gm is a good deal if he is part of the trade), simply because it leaves us stick with the same 27+M committed to the top$ defense that we have now. And, that really isn't the right distribution.

Now, is there a deal that get Schmaltz here? And, for those who don't like his game, why not?

My problem with Schmaltz, and it's not exactly very scientific, is that for all the games Minnesota's played against Arizona he's never really stood out to me despite being one of their better offensive producers and getting like 70% offensive zone starts. He's a player you'd hope takes off with a better team and better linemates, but he's already being sheltered and playing mostly with Garland and Keller. I worry that Arizona's already wringing about as much out of him as a team can, and that they're probably playing him out of position because they don't have other options.

I wouldn't complain about it for the right price, but he makes $5.85m for 5 more years so it's a substantial commitment. It just feels like a trap to me.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

My problem with Schmaltz, and it's not exactly very scientific, is that for all the games Minnesota's played against Arizona he's never really stood out to me despite being one of their better offensive producers and getting like 70% offensive zone starts. He's a player you'd hope takes off with a better team and better linemates, but he's already being sheltered and playing mostly with Garland and Keller. I worry that Arizona's already wringing about as much out of him as a team can, and that they're probably playing him out of position because they don't have other options.

I wouldn't complain about it for the right price, but he makes $5.85m for 5 more years so it's a substantial commitment. It just feels like a trap to me.

I’d much rather do Dvorak.

 

[grimmel95]

My problem with Schmaltz, and it's not exactly very scientific, is that for all the games Minnesota's played against Arizona he's never really stood out to me despite being one of their better offensive producers and getting like 70% offensive zone starts. He's a player you'd hope takes off with a better team and better linemates, but he's already being sheltered and playing mostly with Garland and Keller. I worry that Arizona's already wringing about as much out of him as a team can, and that they're probably playing him out of position because they don't have other options.

I wouldn't complain about it for the right price, but he makes $5.85m for 5 more years so it's a substantial commitment. It just feels like a trap to me.

I wouldn't mind seeing Schmaltz in our lineup considering what we've been trotting out there on a nightly basis. Bringing in someone like Schmaltz also keeps your team mostly intact where going after someone like Eichel will gut your team of futures and players like Fiala/Dumba, etc.

 

[Bazeek]

I’d much rather do Dvorak.

If we're talking about sending Arizona something like Dumba then yes, I agree. Harder to see why they would part with him, but you never know.

I wouldn't mind seeing Schmaltz in our lineup considering what we've been trotting out there on a nightly basis. Bringing in someone like Schmaltz also keeps your team mostly intact where going after someone like Eichel will gut your team of futures and players like Fiala/Dumba, etc.

I think he's probably an upgrade on Hartman and Rask, but maybe not enough of one to justify how much cap space he'll take up. I dunno.

 

[GuerinUp]

dumba + parise(to be bought out) + sturm

OEL retained @5mil, dvorak

add a pick if we need to

 

[grN1g]

Then go 4-4-1

I would accept anyone we lost in the scenario without being heartbroken

Let the bandaid get ripped off and move on

This is probably the smartest move barring a pleasant surprise. Don't want to see a repeat of a VGS deal.

Only real issue I think we have to worry about is would SEA be interested in Talbot? Could very well be and I don't think going into next year with KK as the starter is good for anyone but I'd be hard pressed to believe they'd take him over players like Dumba, Sturm/Greenway, Soucy.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Alright, so if one wants to get crazy with this OEL thing, here's an idea

Here's OEL's contract structure for the next few years (link):

SEASON	CLAUSE	CAP HIT	AAV	P. BONUSES	S. BONUSES	BASE SALARY	TOTAL SALARY	MINORS SALARY
2019-20	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$0	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	$8,000,000
2020-21	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$4,000,000	$4,000,000	$8,000,000	$8,000,000
2021-22	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$0	$10,500,000	$10,500,000	$10,500,000
2022-23	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$5,250,000	$5,250,000	$10,500,000	$10,500,000
2023-24	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$0	$10,500,000	$10,500,000	$10,500,000
2024-25	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$0	$8,000,000	$8,000,000	$8,000,000
2025-26	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$0	$5,250,000	$5,250,000	$5,250,000
2026-27	NMC	$8,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$0	$5,250,000	$5,250,000	$5,250,000
TOTAL		$66,000,000	$66,000,000	$0	$9,250,000	$56,750,000	$66,000,000	$66,000,000

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

In terms of real money, next year is the one where it jumps from $8m to $10.5m. Allegedly it's these next 3 years at $10.5m that the Coyotes really want to avoid, and that makes a lot of sense.

Unfortunately, in addition to his full NMC, OEL hasn't been playing up to his cap hit. So he's drastically narrowed the list of teams, and those teams don't necessarily have a lot of space to be committing to long term deals like this. In order to grease the wheels, Arizona is (allegedly) willing to retain substantial cap here... as long as it's saving them real money.

How do they do that? The proposal from the Bruins board (which I think makes sense) is that the acquiring team pays for the next 3 years, and the Yotes pay for the last 3. That's 38% retention, which brings his cap hit down to $5.15m, and saves Arizona piles of real cash over the next 3 years.

It still doesn't make sense to me for the Wild to acquire him... unless we could send back Parise with the agreement that Arizona buys him out. This allows Parise to sign elsewhere, which is what he probably wants, and (hopefully) avoids recapture penalties for Minnesota. It would saddle Arizona with some dead cap for a few years, but let's again assume that it's really the real money they care about:

Parise's buyout:

SEASON	INITIAL BASE SALARY	INITIAL CAP HIT	SIGNING BONUS	BUYOUT COST	POST-BUYOUT EARNINGS	SAVINGS	CAP HIT ( MIN)
2021-22	$6,000,000	$7,538,461	$0	$833,333	$833,333	$5,166,667	$2,371,794
2022-23	$2,000,000	$7,538,461	$0	$833,333	$833,333	$1,166,667	$6,371,794
2023-24	$1,000,000	$7,538,461	$0	$833,333	$833,333	$166,667	$7,371,794
2024-25	$1,000,000	$7,538,461	$0	$833,333	$833,333	$166,667	$7,371,794
2025-26	$0	$0	$0	$833,333	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
2026-27	$0	$0	$0	$833,333	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
2027-28	$0	$0	$0	$833,333	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
2028-29	$0	$0	$0	$833,333	$833,333	-$833,333	$833,333
TOTAL	$10,000,000	$30,153,844	$0	$6,666,667	$6,666,667	$3,333,333	$26,820,508

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

So it would cost about $6.67m in actual cash, which is still $24.83m less than the next 3 years of OEL's contract. Plus, unless I'm misunderstanding the rules here, that $6.67m is spread out over 8 years, which makes this a lot more comfortable if they're primarily worried about the next 3-5. Arizona does take a lot of dead cap coming back, especially from 2022-2025, but if they're looking to run a leaner ship and rebuild a little that might not be a big deal.

Now obviously this ridiculous deal isn't just OEL for Parise straight across. OEL retained down to $5.15m seems like an okay cap hit to me and would probably be worth something on the open market... except that he has that NMC and will only waive for 4 teams, so we're not looking at an open market. I honestly don't have any clue what the rest of this trade would look like or if what I have above is even viable... but I'm getting punchy enough with Parise that I'm willing to get creative.

This is definitely something worth considering.

 

[Slotski]

I think OEL is wrong (although getting Schmaltz, a center averaging about .6 pts/gm is a good deal if he is part of the trade), simply because it leaves us stick with the same 27+M committed to the top$ defense that we have now. And, that really isn't the right distribution.

Now, is there a deal that get Schmaltz here? And, for those who don't like his game, why not?

I like his speed, but having another sub 45% faceoff C is not too appealing.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I like:
Jesper Boqvist
Pavel Zacha
4th overall

for
Kevin Fiala
Victor Rask

 

[AKL]

My problem with Schmaltz, and it's not exactly very scientific, is that for all the games Minnesota's played against Arizona he's never really stood out to me despite being one of their better offensive producers and getting like 70% offensive zone starts. He's a player you'd hope takes off with a better team and better linemates, but he's already being sheltered and playing mostly with Garland and Keller. I worry that Arizona's already wringing about as much out of him as a team can, and that they're probably playing him out of position because they don't have other options.

I wouldn't complain about it for the right price, but he makes $5.85m for 5 more years so it's a substantial commitment. It just feels like a trap to me.

That's a pretty fair assessment. I look at him as a slightly lesser version of Reinhart in a general sense. Not a true center, can't win faceoffs, defensively not great, already getting probably the most you're going to get from him, etc. The biggest difference is their contract status, with Schmaltz locked in for five years at a somewhat decent rate, and Reinhart needing a new contract and probably asking for a lot more. The assets required to trade for Schmaltz would probably be less too.

If you're looking for a guy who's just not going to f*** everything up with Kaprizov/Zuccarello, either of them would work, and would be much better than Rask, but if you're actually looking for a long term top six center, you may be better served by being a little more patient.

 

[grimmel95]

That's a pretty fair assessment. I look at him as a slightly lesser version of Reinhart in a general sense. Not a true center, can't win faceoffs, defensively not great, already getting probably the most you're going to get from him, etc. The biggest difference is their contract status, with Schmaltz locked in for five years at a somewhat decent rate, and Reinhart needing a new contract and probably asking for a lot more. The assets required to trade for Schmaltz would probably be less too.

If you're looking for a guy who's just not going to f*** everything up with Kaprizov/Zuccarello, either of them would work, and would be much better than Rask, but if you're actually looking for a long term top six center, you may be better served by being a little more patient.

@AKL -- if you were the Wild GM for this off-season and could make only two moves what would they be?

 

[AKL]

@AKL -- if you were the Wild GM for this off-season and could make only two moves what would they be?

Trade Dumba for a 1st+ or equivalent value
Trade for a 26- guy who can be a top 6 center for us, more ideally a guy similar to Vilardi who's poised to break out, get him while he's "cheap"

 

[grimmel95]

Trade Dumba for a 1st+ or equivalent value
Trade for a 26- top 6 center, more ideally a guy similar to Vilardi who's poised to break out, get him while he's "cheap"

Are you concerned that these moves would leave the team in a similar place to where they were this past year or are you ok with the team taking an extra year or two to actually be ready to compete? I don't think they're are many fans that are willing to be as patient as you are if that's the case.

The last thing I think GMBG should be doing is gutting this team for someone like Eichel, etc.

 

[AKL]

Are you concerned that these moves would leave the team in a similar place to where they were this past year or are you ok with the team taking an extra year or two to actually be ready to compete? I don't think they're are many fans that are willing to be as patient as you are if that's the case.

The last thing I think GMBG should be doing is gutting this team for someone like Eichel, etc.

I already know I'm in the minority that would be fine with the team taking another year or two. I'm also in the minority that would be okay with not landing a big fish center this summer, depending on who's moved and what it costs.

 

[grimmel95]

I already know I'm in the minority that would be fine with the team taking another year or two. I'm also in the minority that would be okay with not landing a big fish center this summer, depending on who's moved and what it costs.

I was originally in the camp of go get the big name guy to play center for us but I've switched to your side now. The assets that it would cost to get said "big name" #1 center is too much and my fear would be set this team back a couple of years at least. I do believe though that we can't go into next season with Rask and Hartman as 2 of your top 3 centers and expect to move this team forward. If we can bring in a mildly priced #2 center and give Rossi a shot then I think we're talking.

 

[nickschultzfan]

The confounding thing is Guerin sounds like he wants to bring along Rossi slowly, but he doesn't consider Monahan as a viable upgrade over Rask and stop-gap until Rossi is an impact player. Monahan is only signed for 2 more years.