Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLIII

[ThatGuy22]

But Soucy's offensive numbers are actually really good, also, for a guy who plays 6-7 minutes per night less, and no PP TOI. Last I looked, he had more ES points than Dumba...since Dumba is no longer a focal point on our PP (it's the Kap/Fiala show now), you have to wonder how much a #2 PP Dman is.

Only had two less points in 600 less minutes last year as well.

The combination of depth of the position on the current roster, and having two prospects (both known for their offense) knocking on the door makes it the best decision. We are much likelier to see a smaller drop off in value losing Dumba than Greenway. Given will still likely have a weakness at C next year, keeping the forward core deep will be essential.

 

[PuckInTheNards]

Talbot is replaceable. He is literally league average, but sits behind one of the best d corps in the league. We would be jumping with joy if Seattle took Talbot.

Strong disagree. The difference between Talbot and Dubnyk last year and Kahkonen this year has been very noticeable. Night and day, IMO. Of course, if I'm choosing between losing him, Dumba and Greenway, I'd give up Talbot every time.

 

[Bazeek]

But Soucy's offensive numbers are actually really good, also, for a guy who plays 6-7 minutes per night less, and no PP TOI. Last I looked, he had more ES points than Dumba...since Dumba is no longer a focal point on our PP (it's the Kap/Fiala show now), you have to wonder how much a #2 PP Dman is.

He has more points, but it's 1G and 15A. Dumba's killer feature has always been his shot and ability to score, and while we're somewhat spoiled in that respect on this team most teams around the league absolutely aren't.

Soucy does show potential so maybe it really is just a matter of opportunity with him. But either way I feel like people are conflating value to this team with value league-wide. If you were to put these guys on the market do people really think Soucy gets better bids than Dumba? Even ignoring pedigree, one of them has demonstrated clear top-pairing ability and production, and the other has shown promise in a more sheltered role. In terms of the market I don't think they're all that close in value.

 

[Minnewildsota]

He has more points, but it's 1G and 15A. Dumba's killer feature has always been his shot and ability to score, and while we're somewhat spoiled in that respect on this team most teams around the league absolutely aren't.

Soucy does show potential so maybe it really is just a matter of opportunity with him. But either way I feel like people are conflating value to this team with value league-wide. If you were to put these guys on the market do people really think Soucy gets better bids than Dumba? Even ignoring pedigree, one of them has demonstrated clear top-pairing ability and production, and the other has shown promise in a more sheltered role. In terms of the market I don't think they're all that close in value.

I don’t think anybody is stating that. What I believe we’re saying, is that given the price tag of Dumba, his production, and the prospects we have, it makes sense to lose Dumba to the ED. It would allow younger players and Soucy to step up to fill that hole. Additionally, it may allow us to keep the players that are going to be up for contracts in the near future AND possibly allow us to sign a decent C.

 

[MNNumbers]

I agree with the discussion as to league wide interest in Dumba. He has skills which are rare.

I want to make it clear that I don't see a clear cut 'right' answer here. The problem with a trade is that everyone has cap issues, so the 6M contact hurts the trade value (I think).

I'm not against a trade, but I'm not sure a good one is available.

 

[MuckOG]

Even though I'm onboard with the idea of letting SEA take Dumba, it doesn't mean I don't think the loss will sting. No matter what, we are going to lose a good player. What we don't want is to compound that by losing both Dumba in a trade, then Soucy to expansion on top of that. One bite of a shit sandwich is enough.

 

[57special]

He has more points, but it's 1G and 15A. Dumba's killer feature has always been his shot and ability to score, and while we're somewhat spoiled in that respect on this team most teams around the league absolutely aren't.

Soucy does show potential so maybe it really is just a matter of opportunity with him. But either way I feel like people are conflating value to this team with value league-wide. If you were to put these guys on the market do people really think Soucy gets better bids than Dumba? Even ignoring pedigree, one of them has demonstrated clear top-pairing ability and production, and the other has shown promise in a more sheltered role. In terms of the market I don't think they're all that close in value.

But we are not other teams. The only thing that matters is us. We can't pretend that our two best d prospects are not offensive minded RHD, or that an extra 3.25M in cap space won't make it easier to sign people who we must sign such as JEE, fiala, and Kap, or that we aren't in desperate need of a top 6 C.

I also don't agree that Dumba's production has been clearly better than Soucy's, and if playing with the Best Defensive Dman in the league isn't being sheltered, then what is? Cole isn't in the same universe compared to Brodin.

 

[Nino Noderreiter]

I'm surprised that more folks cannot see the forest for the trees. The argument for exposing Dumba has nothing to do with his current play. I don't really understand the responses to the Dumba exposing argument using any level of play arguments--whatever they may be. In addition, trading Dumba doesn't help you as much as exposing him either realistically. The expose Dumba argument is as follows and it's really pretty simple:

1) The Wild have little organizational depth at the NHL or below the NHL level at the center position outside of Rossi.
2) The Wild have little to no salary cap space over the next few years because of contracts to veteran players, specifically Parise/Suter--but also others as well.
3) The Wild currently are paying 1/3 of their salary cap to their top 4 D. The only realistic movable piece in the top 4 is Dumba's contract.
4) The Wild's best organizational depth at both the NHL level and the near-term minor league level is at D. The Wild have 4 legit top 4 D, another D at the NHL level who likely could be a 2nd pairing D or develop into a second pairing D on a lot of teams, and at least 2 D prospects that are ready to get a shot at the NHL level as soon as next season (along with players like O'Rourke who would be ready in a few years assuming that Addison/Mennell do not take the step forward that you have to think they will at the NHL level and/or the Suter's and Spurgeon's of the world are ready to move on whether that's another team or retirement).
5) The Wild also do not have a lot of near-term ready top 6 caliber wing prospects outside of Boldy who project to be 1-2 years away.

So, if the Wild are faced in a situation where internally they are not going to be able to solve their center issues completely through organizational graduation and they don't have the cap space they need to add to that position in free agency. The only option is to either trade assets for a center or to create cap space for that center.

The problem with trading Dumba is that you then are likely faced with Soucy still getting nabbed. If that's the case, then you are relying pretty heavily on both Addison and Mennell being ready to step into big roles from Day 1--which adds a lot more risk. The easiest way to create the easiest path to fixing the center position is the scenario where Dumba gets exposed and you create 6m of cap space without losing other assets.

This gives the Wild flexibility to either sign a center or use future to acquire a center without having to attach positive assets to veteran contracts in order to move them to create that cap space. It's just poor roster management to go forward in a scenario where you are prioritizing losing forward assets when you don't have any to spare in order to keep 1/3 of your salary cap tied up into your deepest position, the only position with a surplus that you could really use to acquire a center asset, and the position with the most organizational depth that is ready to graduate to the major league level and potentially do so in an impactful way both next season, but over the next 2-3-4 seasons.

 

[Minnewildsota]

I'm surprised that more folks cannot see the forest for the trees. The argument for exposing Dumba has nothing to do with his current play. I don't really understand the responses to the Dumba exposing argument using any level of play arguments--whatever they may be. In addition, trading Dumba doesn't help you as much as exposing him either realistically. The expose Dumba argument is as follows and it's really pretty simple:

1) The Wild have little organizational depth at the NHL or below the NHL level at the center position outside of Rossi.
2) The Wild have little to no salary cap space over the next few years because of contracts to veteran players, specifically Parise/Suter--but also others as well.
3) The Wild currently are paying 1/3 of their salary cap to their top 4 D. The only realistic movable piece in the top 4 is Dumba's contract.
4) The Wild's best organizational depth at both the NHL level and the near-term minor league level is at D. The Wild have 4 legit top 4 D, another D at the NHL level who likely could be a 2nd pairing D or develop into a second pairing D on a lot of teams, and at least 2 D prospects that are ready to get a shot at the NHL level as soon as next season (along with players like O'Rourke who would be ready in a few years assuming that Addison/Mennell do not take the step forward that you have to think they will at the NHL level and/or the Suter's and Spurgeon's of the world are ready to move on whether that's another team or retirement).
5) The Wild also do not have a lot of near-term ready top 6 caliber wing prospects outside of Boldy who project to be 1-2 years away.

So, if the Wild are faced in a situation where internally they are not going to be able to solve their center issues completely through organizational graduation and they don't have the cap space they need to add to that position in free agency. The only option is to either trade assets for a center or to create cap space for that center.

The problem with trading Dumba is that you then are likely faced with Soucy still getting nabbed. If that's the case, then you are relying pretty heavily on both Addison and Mennell being ready to step into big roles from Day 1--which adds a lot more risk. The easiest way to create the easiest path to fixing the center position is the scenario where Dumba gets exposed and you create 6m of cap space without losing other assets.

This gives the Wild flexibility to either sign a center or use future to acquire a center without having to attach positive assets to veteran contracts in order to move them to create that cap space. It's just poor roster management to go forward in a scenario where you are prioritizing losing forward assets when you don't have any to spare in order to keep 1/3 of your salary cap tied up into your deepest position, the only position with a surplus that you could really use to acquire a center asset, and the position with the most organizational depth that is ready to graduate to the major league level and potentially do so in an impactful way both next season, but over the next 2-3-4 seasons.

Well put, mate.

 

[57special]

I agree with the discussion as to league wide interest in Dumba. He has skills which are rare.

Like what?

- 53rd among NHL Dmen in pts.
-52 TOI
- 66th pts/gp
-59th pts/ES

Tied for 3rd in ES pts. on the team with Spurgeon and Suter. Soucy and Brodin have more. His 50 pt. season was 4 years ago. Ever since his injury he hasn't shown anything close to the same production. He is not a rare talent...far from it. He is a good, useful player who is a debatable asset considering what he is paid. He is not to blame that Suter and Spurgeon are just as debatable, but the fact is that they have NMC's, and he doesn't.

 

[Bazeek]

But we are not other teams. The only thing that matters is us. We can't pretend that our two best d prospects are not offensive minded RHD, or that an extra 3.25M in cap space won't make it easier to sign people who we must sign such as JEE, fiala, and Kap, or that we aren't in desperate need of a top 6 C.

I also don't agree that Dumba's production has been clearly better than Soucy's, and if playing with the Best Defensive Dman in the league isn't being sheltered, then what is? Cole isn't in the same universe compared to Brodin.

I'll defer on the ED discussion because I've already made my thoughts on that overly clear and, frankly, everyone is likely tired of it. I will say that the upside to Dumba being gone is that he might finally get some credit for his defensive play.

 

[MNNumbers]

Among all this disagreement, I think we all better accept the fact that we don't know what Seattle will do. We could protect 4-4-1 and they take a G.

7-3-1 and they take Soucy.

Just don't know.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Why not expose Fiala? I mean, Greenway is probably gonna be better bang for buck after this season and we've got Boldy waiting in the wings... This is the type of logic people are using.

 

[GuerinUp]

im going to laugh when we lose dumba and our defense turns into a dumpster fire

 

[MuckOG]

Why not expose Fiala? I mean, Greenway is probably gonna be better bang for buck after this season and we've got Boldy waiting in the wings... This is the type of logic people are using.

The gulf in on-ice production between Fiala and Greenway is much larger than the gap between Dumba and Soucy. Also, Boldy and Greenway aren't the same time of player. Where as Addison and Mennel are both offensively minded RHD with a more similar skill-set to Dumba than Boldy has to Greenway.

Greenway is a beast, using his size and intimidation to out-muscle his opponent down low. Boldy is a less-physical, but more skilled player than Greenway is.

Addison or Menell may be a step down from Dumba, but I'm not sure what else can be done....unless you are OK with devoting that much money to our blueline and effectively not being able to target a UFA center in the offseason.

I'm just amazed that fans on this board would be ok with losing a 6'6" behemoth 50 point power forward like Greenway. I'm predicting big things from him and his line in the playoffs.

 

[Digitalbooya]

The gulf in on-ice production between Fiala and Greenway is much larger than the gap between Dumba and Soucy. Also, Boldy and Greenway aren't the same time of player. Where as Addison and Mennel are both offensively minded RHD with a more similar skill-set to Dumba than Boldy has to Greenway.

Greenway is a beast, using his size and intimidation to out-muscle his opponent down low. Boldy is a less-physical, but more skilled player than Greenway is.

Addison or Menell may be a step down from Dumba, but I'm not sure what else can be done....unless you are OK with devoting that much money to our blueline and not being able to sign a UFA center in the offseason.

I'm just amazed that fans on this board would be ok with losing a 6'6" behemoth 50 point power forward like Greenway. I'm predicting big things from him and his line in the playoffs.

Flat out disagree. I think Soucy benefits from playing lesser competition compared to the rest. Greenway plays w/ Eriksson Ek against top lines every game. Same with Dumba/Brodin.

I'm not okay with losing Greenway. I'm just way less okay with letting half of our top pair go for nothing because "cap space."

 

[thestonedkoala]

Flat out disagree. I think Soucy benefits from playing lesser competition compared to the rest. Greenway plays w/ Eriksson Ek against top lines every game. Same with Dumba/Brodin.

I'm not okay with losing Greenway. I'm just way less okay with letting half of our top pair go for nothing because "cap space."

Historically, Minnesota has done a good job of developing top 4 defenseman and they've been blessed with a rotation of solid to great defensemen. You also can ice only 6 defensemen - maybe 7 and have 2 on the ice. Having 11/12 forwards and three on the ice changes things dynamically in terms of worth. Finally, Minnesota has had struggles getting cheap, bottom 6 guys like Greenway to develop.

 

[MuckOG]

 

[Bazeek]

Their mouths are surely watering for Code Ceci as well.

Edit: Less snarkily - I'm guessing Seattle's decisions will ultimately involve a whole lot of analytics work and the gods only know what those number look like. So honestly, who knows? I just think that P/60 in a shortened season with no inter-divisional games is a really bad measuring stick.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Their mouths are surely watering for Code Ceci as well.

You mean UFA Ceci who they could just sign?

 

[Digitalbooya]

Historically, Minnesota has done a good job of developing top 4 defenseman and they've been blessed with a rotation of solid to great defensemen. You also can ice only 6 defensemen - maybe 7 and have 2 on the ice. Having 11/12 forwards and three on the ice changes things dynamically in terms of worth. Finally, Minnesota has had struggles getting cheap, bottom 6 guys like Greenway to develop.

Here's a crazy idea to help with cap space: maybe don't put over $6m on the third pairing. Let Cole walk and trade/lose Soucy to SEA. Play both Menell and Addison on the third pair. Saves the same amount of cap space without significantly downgrading.

 

[MuckOG]

Here's a crazy idea to help with cap space: maybe don't put over $6m on the third pairing. Let Cole walk and trade/lose Soucy to SEA. Play both Menell and Addison on the third pair. Saves the same amount of cap space without significantly downgrading.

Two rookie RHD who both play a finesse game on the 3rd pairing? Yikes.

I would probably start Addison in Iowa, but I would like Menell to be paired with a responsible veteran....like Cole, at least to start.

 

[Bazeek]

You mean UFA Ceci who they could just sign?

I elaborated a little but... kind of, yeah. If we're using this as a strong indication of Soucy's appeal, then Ceci's gotta be high on their FA list. He's basically Jakob Chychrun.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Here's a crazy idea to help with cap space: maybe don't put over $6m on the third pairing. Let Cole walk and trade/lose Soucy to SEA. Play both Menell and Addison on the third pair. Saves the same amount of cap space without significantly downgrading.

Here's another crazy idea; Cole isn't going to be making what he's going to be making next season?

The biggest issue here is trying to find a spot for Menell AND Addison as both have shown they really don't have anything left in the AHL. The Wild are overloaded at the right-side currently with Addison, Menell, Belpedio (who is good depth) in the minors and Dumba and Spurgeon in the majors.

It's not just about cap space, but where the Wild can lose a player without a significant downgrade.

Next season:

Kaprizov - Rask - Zucarello
??? - ??? - Fiala
Greenway - Eriksson-Ek- Foligno
Parise - Sturm - Hartman

Brodin - Dumba
Suter - Spurgeon
Soucy - ???

We have Rossi, Boldy, Addison and Menell all ready to crack the line up with Dewar, and Giroux behind them.

As you can see, the forwards still need some fixing, but the defense is okay even losing Dumba. That center depth is really questionable and so is that left wing depth.

I elaborated a little but... kind of, yeah. If we're using this as a strong indication of Soucy's appeal, then Ceci's gotta be high on their FA list. He's basically Jakob Chychrun.

I think they are looking more than just his G/60 from this season this keeps inline with last season when he ranked 1st in goals per 60 for the Wild and 6th among defenseman.

 

[GuerinUp]

Here's another crazy idea; Cole isn't going to be making what he's going to be making next season?

The biggest issue here is trying to find a spot for Menell AND Addison as both have shown they really don't have anything left in the AHL. The Wild are overloaded at the right-side currently with Addison, Menell, Belpedio (who is good depth) in the minors and Dumba and Spurgeon in the majors.

It's not just about cap space, but where the Wild can lose a player without a significant downgrade.

Next season:

Kaprizov - Rask - Zucarello
??? - ??? - Fiala
Greenway - Eriksson-Ek- Foligno
Parise - Sturm - Hartman

Brodin - Dumba
Suter - Spurgeon
Soucy - ???

We have Rossi, Boldy, Addison and Menell all ready to crack the line up with Dewar, and Giroux behind them.

As you can see, the forwards still need some fixing, but the defense is okay even losing Dumba. That center depth is really questionable and so is that left wing depth.



I think they are looking more than just his G/60 from this season, this keeps inline with last season when he ranked 1st in goals per 60 for the Wild and 6th among defenseman.

kap-rossi-zucc
boldy-ek-fiala
greenway-sturm-foligno
menell-dewar-hartman

brodin-dumba
suter-spurgeon
cole-addison

there you go problem solved