Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk XLIII

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MNNumbers

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Dumba's contract is up in two more years. If he is still then what he is now, then you let him go as a rental near the TDL and that opens room for the younger guys. Cole is not necessary unless one of Dumba/Soucy is taken.

AND>>>>>
Looking at the cap situation. If a forward is lost rather than Dumba, then the cap hit sits at 78.75M (plus the salary of the player taken) assuming ELC's for Addison and Menell at 6D and 7D, and Rask is bought out, and we would need to sign 3 forwards and a goalie. Barely room for that. If it's Greenway, then you have about 5M in cap space.
 

ThatGuy22

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I think BG would be best to not try get to complicated. We've got ready/near ready replacements for Dumba, as much as it pains to lose an asset like that for nothing.

The team in general will likely be better off just letting Seattle have him, then twisting themselves in knots losing more assets to keep him or trading him for a poor return (i don't think you can get a good return before expansion) and losing someone else on top of that.

Swapping in Menell/Addison for Dumba is the path of least resistance, and we're probably in the best shape moving forward under that situation. The additional 6 million in cap space is a nice bonus.
 

MNNumbers

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I think BG would be best to not try get to complicated. We've got ready/near ready replacements for Dumba, as much as it pains to lose an asset like that for nothing.

The team in general will likely be better off just letting Seattle have him, then twisting themselves in knots losing more assets to keep him or trading him for a poor return (i don't think you can get a good return before expansion) and losing someone else on top of that.

Swapping in Menell/Addison for Dumba is the path of least resistance, and we're probably in the best shape moving forward under that situation. The additional 6 million in cap space is a nice bonus.

I think one way to do the analysis would be.....If you make that swap on D, what's the effect on scoring next year?
You might lose 5-10 points from Dumba (only trending to 13G, 33P per 82, I think...but he also may be a better defender).
But, if the cap savings can be used for offense, like a midling 3C rather than Rask, do you gain that back ?

I'm not sure the answer, but this is a good question.
 

DANOZ28

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i think this is the same situation goalie hackett was in , you cant keep addison & menell on the sidelines forever so either find a spot for them next season or trade them.
 

57special

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Boldy is a big body possession player who can play mean. He has better hands and a better shot than greenway and is supposed to be solid defensively. Doesn’t have the exact same reach but at 6’2 he isn’t far off. Does either menell or Addison have the physical presence or the shot dumba has? Also dumba has become much better defensively, I don’t recall that being the strong point of either of his replacements game.
Boldy does not play mean, and isn't even close to Greenway in size and strength.

Greenway is Meat and Potatoes.
Boldy is Duck L'orange, with Asparagus tips and shaved Almonds, and a Wild rice Pilaf.
 
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StateofCelly

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I think one way to do the analysis would be.....If you make that swap on D, what's the effect on scoring next year?
You might lose 5-10 points from Dumba (only trending to 13G, 33P per 82, I think...but he also may be a better defender).
But, if the cap savings can be used for offense, like a midling 3C rather than Rask, do you gain that back ?

I'm not sure the answer, but this is a good question.

The puck movement skills from Addison on our power play could easily make up the 5-10 points. Dumba is a +3 right now, and I could see Addison struggling more even strength.. Dumba is good on the PP but really has resorted to the one heavy shot from the point. Menell I think is more balanced at this point, but could see the bigger points drop in year one.

Hey when the NHL announces that we have to have logos plastered all over jerseys in the coming years, some of that income should hopefully open up some space to sign a C haha :sarcasm:
 

Digitalbooya

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Brodin-Dumba
Suter-Spurgeon
Soucy-Menell

Gives 2 seasons for Addison to be an NHL regular. If Menell proves big, then trade Dumba.

This idea that Soucy or Greenway are more valuable than Dumba is nuts. Would you trade Dumba straight up for either of them? I wouldn’t.
 

57special

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Talbot is replaceable. He is literally league average, but sits behind one of the best d corps in the league. We would be jumping with joy if Seattle took Talbot.
I'm not sure that's true, but not sure that's not true. Is it really that easy to get a goalie who can replicate what Talbot has done? Or is he an average goalie having a career year? I wonder if FA goalies will look at Talbot's success, and target MN as a place to sign, as their style of play tends to make goalies look better?
 

MuckOG

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Brodin-Dumba
Suter-Spurgeon
Soucy-Menell

Gives 2 seasons for Addison to be an NHL regular. If Menell proves big, then trade Dumba.

This idea that Soucy or Greenway are more valuable than Dumba is nuts. Would you trade Dumba straight up for either of them? I wouldn’t.

If you are just looking at these players in a vacuum without factoring in their contracts, then I agree with you.

But is Dumba really worth $3.2 million/season more than Soucy and $3.9 million/season more than Greenway? I don't think so.

Suter - Spurgeon
Soucy - Brodin
Cole - Menell
 

Digitalbooya

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If you are just looking at these players in a vacuum without factoring in their contracts, then I agree with you.

But is Dumba really worth $3.2 million/season more than Souncy and $3.9 million/season more than Greenway? I don't think so.
Just because someone is a better bang for buck, in your opinion, doesn’t mean you should get rid of the better player.
 
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MuckOG

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Just because someone is a better bang for buck, in your opinion, doesn’t mean you should get rid of the better player.

Unfortunately in the cap world, bang for the buck has to figure into it. I think Greenway is more valuable to this team than Dumba is on the ice. I'll take a 50 point power forward over a 30 point defenseman. Soucy may not be quite as good offensively as Dumba, but I don't think the drop off is all that substantial.

If we didn't have Menell and Addison sitting in the wings, I would probably think differently. But being that they are, I think Dumba is replaceable and getting back that $6 million in cap space will create roster flexibility moving forward.
 

Digitalbooya

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Unfortunately in the cap world, bang for the buck has to figure into it. I think Greenway is more valuable to this team than Dumba is on the ice. I'll take a 50 point power forward over a 30 point defenseman. Soucy may not be quite as good offensively as Dumba, but I don't think the drop off is all that substantial.

If we didn't have Menell and Addison sitting in the wings, I would probably think differently. But being that they are, I think Dumba is replaceable and getting back that $6 million in cap space will create roster flexibility moving forward.
Smart teams don’t trade a pretty darn good defenseman because their third pairing dman is doing well against lesser competition.

I want to see those two work their way into the lineup. Starting on the third pair.
 

ThatGuy22

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Just because someone is a better bang for buck, in your opinion, doesn’t mean you should get rid of the better player.

None of these decisions are made in a vaccum of "who is the better player".

Who we can most afford to lose factors in, what do we have in internal replacements, what do we gain. There are many factors.

Unfortunately, a number of those factors make a compelling argument that just letting Seattle take Dumba is the best move for the overall franchise.
 

57special

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Brodin-Dumba
Suter-Spurgeon
Soucy-Menell

Gives 2 seasons for Addison to be an NHL regular. If Menell proves big, then trade Dumba.

This idea that Soucy or Greenway are more valuable than Dumba is nuts. Would you trade Dumba straight up for either of them? I wouldn’t.
In a world without salary cap, or where there is not a team imbalance favoring D, I would agree that Dumba is more valuable. That is not the world we live in, though. IMO there is not a clear best answer. If I knew that Addison, or Menell would be an adequate NHL RHD, and not RH versions of Hunt, I would feel more comfortable letting Dumba go, for sure.

In the unlikely even that Suter waives his NMC for the ED, I would probably trade Dumba for the best available C, or C prospect, and protect Soucy. I just feel that we must start committing resources to the C position, rather than standing pat with what we have. I could be wrong...it's just an opinion.

The worst case scenario would be for us to trade Dumba, expose Soucy in the ED, and have him taken. I can live without Dumba on the D corps, not without Dumba and Soucy.
 

Minnewildsota

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In a world without salary cap, or where there is not a team imbalance favoring D, I would agree that Dumba is more valuable. That is not the world we live in, though. IMO there is not a clear best answer. If I knew that Addison, or Menell would be an adequate NHL RHD, and not RH versions of Hunt, I would feel more comfortable letting Dumba go, for sure.

In the unlikely even that Suter waives his NMC for the ED, I would probably trade Dumba for the best available C, or C prospect, and protect Soucy. I just feel that we must start committing resources to the C position, rather than standing pat with what we have. I could be wrong...it's just an opinion.

The worst case scenario would be for us to trade Dumba, expose Soucy in the ED, and have him taken. I can live without Dumba on the D corps, not without Dumba and Soucy.

Well, from what I gather it's simple. Menell and/or Addison can take their places, but at the same time they can use more seasoning in the AHL. Which seems quite counterintuitive to me but whatever.
 

MuckOG

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Well, from what I gather it's simple. Menell and/or Addison can take their places, but at the same time they can use more seasoning in the AHL. Which seems quite counterintuitive to me but whatever.

Not sure how much more seasoning Menell leads. Two years ago he led all AHL defensemen in scoring and was one of the top scoring defensemen in the KHL this season.
 

57special

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boldy seems to be a much more talented version of coyle. i just hope he learns to add a pesky side like we see in JEE.
Coyle a better skater, bigger, stronger, and can play C. Also a RHS.

Boldy much better IQ, skills, vision, and I think(though he has a very placid demeanour)competitive nature. Coyle drove us all nuts because he had so much talent, but would just disappear for weeks on end. One game he looked like a #1RW, others a #3rw. He's doing the same thing this year in Boston. I am hoping that Boldy is far more consistent. He looks vg down in the AHL, and the things he is not good at are things that I can see improving with physical maturity and work such as winning(or dominating, he's already winning a lot in the A)puck battles, and skating.
 
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57special

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Not sure how much more seasoning Menell leads. Two years ago he led all AHL defensemen in scoring and was one of the top scoring defensemen in the KHL this season.
He was 2nd in dmen scoring in the KHL, and 1st in PPG scoring, among those who played a full season. Only reason he didn't lead scoring outright was because he missed games due to covid. Menell deserves a look, for sure.
 
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ThatGuy22

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Not sure how much more seasoning Menell leads. Two years ago he led all AHL defensemen in scoring and was one of the top scoring defensemen in the KHL this season.
Definitely shit or get off the pot time on Menell.

3 Seasons in the AHL, 1 in the KHL. 91 points in his last 2 AHL seasons (127 games). 38 points in 47 KHL games. Turning 24 in a month.

If he's going to be an NHLer, it's time to find out.
 
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Bazeek

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I think one way to do the analysis would be.....If you make that swap on D, what's the effect on scoring next year?
You might lose 5-10 points from Dumba (only trending to 13G, 33P per 82, I think...but he also may be a better defender).
But, if the cap savings can be used for offense, like a midling 3C rather than Rask, do you gain that back ?

I'm not sure the answer, but this is a good question.
I've sworn myself to silence on the expansion stuff, but the bolded sums up what makes me crazy about this discussion.

In the past 3 seasons, 13 goals would be good for the following league-wide rank among defensemen:

2019-20: 9th (1st was 20G)
2018-19: 13th (1st was 20G)
2017-18: 15th (1st was 17G)

Even this year, when his offense is "suffering", he and Brodin are tied for 19th in the league. And that's while playing top pairing minutes/assignments at 5v5 and getting some... peculiar, powerplay usage. In terms of per-60 numbers he's mostly lacking in secondary assists compared to his "good" seasons.

He did have some monstrous 5v5 numbers in 2017-18 that I don't know if he'll replicate, but I don't think that's should be the minimum expectation for success here either. And yeah, the team's contract structure all but guarantees he won't be here next year, but if we're comparing him as an asset to guys like Foligno and Soucy? I'm lost as to how that's a hard choice. Even Greenway, who I think is a notch above those two guys, is a notch below Dumba, even with the contracts accounted for.
 

57special

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But Soucy's offensive numbers are actually really good, also, for a guy who plays 6-7 minutes per night less, and no PP TOI. Last I looked, he had more ES points than Dumba...since Dumba is no longer a focal point on our PP (it's the Kap/Fiala show now), you have to wonder how much a #2 PP Dman is worth to us.
 
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