Trade and Free Agency Discussion Thread - Don't Expect More Augmenting

[Cor]

Right now we have managed to shore up our defensive core, thanks to TJ Brodie and the potential of Mikko Lehtonen, and the added dynamic Zach Bogosian brings.

We don't know what Freddy will want, and we won't know what our situation is in 2 years cap wise in regards to Rielly.

As of now, is there anything that suggests Andersen should get more than the 5x5 that Lehner got?

In my opinion we already have our goalie budgeted for. It's that 5M Freddy currently makes. Whether Freddy takes it, or we find someone else via free agency of trade

 

[Fogelhund]

Right now we have managed to shore up our defensive core, thanks to TJ Brodie and the potential of Mikko Lehtonen, and the added dynamic Zach Bogosian brings.

We don't know what Freddy will want, and we won't know what our situation is in 2 years cap wise in regards to Rielly.

As of now, is there anything that suggests Andersen should get more than the 5x5 that Lehner got?

In my opinion we already have our goalie budgeted for. It's that 5M Freddy currently makes. Whether Freddy takes it, or we find someone else via free agency of trade

I highly doubt that the Cap goes up, and there is a chance it goes down. Players are going to be taking less than we are currently projecting.

It wouldn't shock me at all, if the organization tests Campbell/Dell as a future tandem.. Noting, I says tests.... If Campbell can raise his game, and Dell continue to grow, it might give us some cap room, and options. Then again, they might not improve upon what Freddy brings.

 

[LeafChief]

Right now we have managed to shore up our defensive core, thanks to TJ Brodie and the potential of Mikko Lehtonen, and the added dynamic Zach Bogosian brings.

We don't know what Freddy will want, and we won't know what our situation is in 2 years cap wise in regards to Rielly.

As of now, is there anything that suggests Andersen should get more than the 5x5 that Lehner got?

In my opinion we already have our goalie budgeted for. It's that 5M Freddy currently makes. Whether Freddy takes it, or we find someone else via free agency of trade

I highly doubt that the Cap goes up, and there is a chance it goes down. Players are going to be taking less than we are currently projecting.

It wouldn't shock me at all, if the organization tests Campbell/Dell as a future tandem.. Noting, I says tests.... If Campbell can raise his game, and Dell continue to grow, it might give us some cap room, and options. Then again, they might not improve upon what Freddy brings.

The cap not rising for two seasons (and maybe longer?) maybe be a sneaky good time to get Andersen, Rielly and Hyman re-signed for below market value.

It could also screw us pretty badly and have us lose good players to UFA because of cap constraints but lets be optimistic, right?

 

[Cor]

I highly doubt that the Cap goes up, and there is a chance it goes down. Players are going to be taking less than we are currently projecting.

It wouldn't shock me at all, if the organization tests Campbell/Dell as a future tandem.. Noting, I says tests.... If Campbell can raise his game, and Dell continue to grow, it might give us some cap room, and options. Then again, they might not improve upon what Freddy brings.

The cap not rising for two seasons (and maybe longer?) maybe be a sneaky good time to get Andersen, Rielly and Hyman re-signed for below market value.

It could also screw us pretty badly and have us lose good players to UFA because of cap constraints but lets be optimistic, right?

I really don't see many issues.

I project Hyman around 3M or so, which is mainly made up of someone like Simmonds departing and being replaced by a Joey Anderson for 750K, and then Bogosian being replaced by someone at the 750K~ level (if not Bogo himself re-signing for that), 0r even Justin Holl being flipped and replaced by someone making between the 700K-1m range (especially if Holl is going to be on the bottom pairing/not playing every day)

Zach Hyman is easy. I think we have zero issues keeping him. I think he's going to sign at a nice AAV.

As I said with Freddy, I don't see what supports him getting any sort of raise. His regular season was below par, he hasn't had much playoff success, ironically, except for this one. He hasn't come close to being in the Vezina conversation. I offer Freddy the 5M he's making now, over 3-5 seasons, and he can take it or leave it. And yeah, Jack Campbell is going to get more of a shot this year. Aaron Dell has consistency issues but is a really good backup goalie to have himself.

Rielly is complicated, and I feel like we are too far out to really properly discuss it. We have an expansion draft and an entire off-season next year to get through. Maybe one of Dermott or Sandin (or both) really take a step forward this season, and we expose Muzzin and Seattle takes him. Or same scenario, but with TJ Brodie. I personally have Morgan Rielly being worth between 6.5M and 7M. Which means we only really need to find 1.5-2M in cap in two years. maybe 2.5M if we extend my projection to 7.5M.

 

[Fogelhund]

I really don't see many issues.

I project Hyman around 3M or so, which is mainly made up of someone like Simmonds departing and being replaced by a Joey Anderson for 750K, and then Bogosian being replaced by someone at the 750K~ level (if not Bogo himself re-signing for that), 0r even Justin Holl being flipped and replaced by someone making between the 700K-1m range (especially if Holl is going to be on the bottom pairing/not playing every day)

Zach Hyman is easy. I think we have zero issues keeping him. I think he's going to sign at a nice AAV.

As I said with Freddy, I don't see what supports him getting any sort of raise. His regular season was below par, he hasn't had much playoff success, ironically, except for this one. He hasn't come close to being in the Vezina conversation. I offer Freddy the 5M he's making now, over 3-5 seasons, and he can take it or leave it. And yeah, Jack Campbell is going to get more of a shot this year. Aaron Dell has consistency issues but is a really good backup goalie to have himself.

Rielly is complicated, and I feel like we are too far out to really properly discuss it. We have an expansion draft and an entire off-season next year to get through. Maybe one of Dermott or Sandin (or both) really take a step forward this season, and we expose Muzzin and Seattle takes him. Or same scenario, but with TJ Brodie. I personally have Morgan Rielly being worth between 6.5M and 7M. Which means we only really need to find 1.5-2M in cap in two years. maybe 2.5M if we extend my projection to 7.5M.

I agree with you, in that I don't see there being issues keeping Hyman, or Rielly. I just am not bullish on the numbers, but that's more of a Financial Economics thing, than anything else. Without going too far down a rabbit hole, there were signs that the last Economic cycle was nearing the end, before Covid...surely we are well into a real contraction now, not just a Covid one... I don't see a return to employment, or GDP, to where we were, for a number of years, with an asset repricing.... I think there will be a reset in Hockey too, and how we get there, what the new realities in salaries will be.... The salary cap may not be higher than now, for five years, at least.

Projecting Hyman at $3 mil, was an old reality... not sure we will be under that reality come next Free Agency period.

 

[Jozay]

I think Hyman gets more than 3 million. Probably about 1-1.5 more.

Only real obvious target to clear salary is Kerfoot.

I think they could probably spend 4-5 million on a goalie depending on what moves are made.

 

[Martin Skoula]

We have a strong asset base, paying something around 1st for a young future starter (Georgiev/Demko level) to platoon with Campbell should be enough savings to sign Rielly at least. If we had an in-house solution developing faster than Woll/Scott we could have rented Kuemper at 50% as well.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Contract comparables for Rielly, who will be 27 when he's eligible for an extension, buying up only UFA years.

Name	Age	AAV	Length	Cap%
OEL	26	8.25	8	10.38
Hedman	25	7.875	8	10.79
Carlson	28	8	8	10.06
Trouba	25	8	7	9.82
Letang	26	7.25	8	11.28
Fowler	25	6.5	8	8.67

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Only Letang had been a Norris finalist (3rd), Carlson had the next best (5th) finish at the time of the signings. All buy UFA years exclusively, except Trouba, who bought one RFA year.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I think Hyman gets more than 3 million. Probably about 1-1.5 more.

Only real obvious target to clear salary is Kerfoot.

I think they could probably spend 4-5 million on a goalie depending on what moves are made.

If Hyman wants 4-4.5 mill, he is not getting it here. He is not worth that much at any age, never mind near the end of his prime.

He is a good and valuable player, but we can replace him for far less if he wants that much.

 

[Legion34]

Contract comparables for Rielly, who will be 27 when he's eligible for an extension, buying up only UFA years.

Name	Age	AAV	Length	Cap%
OEL	26	8.25	8	10.38
Hedman	25	7.875	8	10.79
Carlson	28	8	8	10.06
Trouba	25	8	7	9.82
Letang	26	7.25	8	11.28
Fowler	25	6.5	8	8.67

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Only Letang had been a Norris finalist (3rd), Carlson had the next best (5th) finish at the time of the signings. All buy UFA years exclusively, except Trouba, who bought one RFA year.

sure but those are pre pandemic. We will have no idea how teams will be structured/financially sound.

with no crowds this year. Who can offer rielly SB? Will he want to go to ufa? I have 8 million as my guess but it could be quite a bit less

 

[hamzarocks]

If Hyman wants 4-4.5 mill, he is not getting it here. He is not worth that much at any age, never mind near the end of his prime.

He is a good and valuable player, but we can replace him for far less if he wants that much.

60 point wingers are worth more than 4-4.5 million. Hyman this year was worth more than a 4-4.5 million player. Even last year he was on pace for high 40s and was right around the level of production a 4-4.5M player brings along with all his other valuable skills . If hyman repeats and produces at a 60 point level 4-4.5 is a big hometown discount

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

60 point wingers are worth more than 4-4.5 million. Hyman this year was worth more than a 4-4.5 million player. Even last year he was on pace for high 40s and was right around the level of production a 4-4.5M player brings along with all his other valuable skills . If hyman repeats and produces at a 60 point level 4-4.5 is a big hometown discount

The problem is that last year was the first year he had a noticably positive influence on his linemates in the advanced numbers to go with the eye test. If he repeats then yes he is definitely a top 6 player worth more than that. If he regresses back to his mean than you can likely replace him with somebody else who plays the same style and get similar results.

 

[Kiwi]

60 point wingers are worth more than 4-4.5 million. Hyman this year was worth more than a 4-4.5 million player. Even last year he was on pace for high 40s and was right around the level of production a 4-4.5M player brings along with all his other valuable skills . If hyman repeats and produces at a 60 point level 4-4.5 is a big hometown discount

He's a very good and useful player but there is no way in hell I'd be giving somebody at his age with his playstyle 4M+ with term, that's the sort of contract you regret sooner than you think

 

[SeaOfBlue]

60 point wingers are worth more than 4-4.5 million. Hyman this year was worth more than a 4-4.5 million player. Even last year he was on pace for high 40s and was right around the level of production a 4-4.5M player brings along with all his other valuable skills . If hyman repeats and produces at a 60 point level 4-4.5 is a big hometown discount

He is also benefitting a lot from PPG line mates. You can plug a lot of guys in there and they will do well. Hyman is very valuable, but not very rare.

 

[Mickey Marner]

sure but those are pre pandemic. We will have no idea how teams will be structured/financially sound.

with no crowds this year. Who can offer rielly SB? Will he want to go to ufa? I have 8 million as my guess but it could be quite a bit less

I think he will come in around 8 as well, which is reasonable. If we're lucky he takes a Fowler deal and ends up 7-7.25.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Hyman is easily worth 4, pre-covid he probably would've earned closer to 5. Whichever line he has been on has been our best line in each of the last four seasons and we have nothing resembling an internal replacement.

 

[hamzarocks]

He is also benefitting a lot from PPG line mates. You can plug a lot of guys in there and they will do well. Hyman is very valuable, but not very rare.

Fair but he also plays minimal minutes on the pp and gets very limited power play points in general.

I dont agree you can plug a lot of guys there. We tried kap/AJ/leivo(for a bit)/mik etc. None of them help complete the top line as well as Hyman. We have a unique player in Hyman one who has great value if he were ever dealt.

Hyman is a better player than coleman imo and we saw how valuable he was as a trade asset and his play+production come playoffs was excellent for his usage.

Toffoli a recent UFA signingmakes 4.5M for comparison and I dont think he fits the top line better than Hyman.

Hyman at 4-4.5 is only a concern due to his age and general trend that players of his style wear out quicker. In his late 20s he is very effective but ya giving 4-5 years at 4ishM is risky for Hyman with injury concerns being highly likely. Having robertson and amirov also lessens his leverage.

 

[hamzarocks]

He's a very good and useful player but there is no way in hell I'd be giving somebody at his age with his playstyle 4M+ with term, that's the sort of contract you regret sooner than you think

Honestly ya his playstyle and age is the concern. Like I would give him 4.2x3 (if we had the capspace to fit that in but doubt we do and Hyman take a bit of a cut from that) but would be concerned more so with a 3.5x6 despite the cap savings.

Still he has found a way to be a positive influence on nearly everyone hes been on. Whether playing with kerfoot/kap(few games he played 3rd line this year he produced well), AM/WN, AM/MM,JT/WN,JT/MM.

If the guy was 4 years younger he would be making josh anderson money and be well worth it

 

[dfunk]

5x 3m for hyman gets it done IMO. He comes from an extremely wealthy family, I’d imagine he’s looking for job security more so than cash

 

[613Leafer]

As of now, is there anything that suggests Andersen should get more than the 5x5 that Lehner got?

In my opinion we already have our goalie budgeted for. It's that 5M Freddy currently makes. Whether Freddy takes it, or we find someone else via free agency of trade

Lehner is younger than Freddie, with better career stats, better playoff success, and has been better the last few years as well. Every angle you look at it from says Lehner should be worth more, other than Lehner having fewer NHL games.

If Lehner got 5 X 5M, Freddie should be getting something like 4 X 4M. At Freddie's age and given the playoff struggles, plus coming off a pretty mediocre year generally, I wouldnt risk a 5 X 5M contract. This team is way too tight against the cap to risk a bad contract into someone's mid/late 30s.

Historically though, even at 32 next year, someone would probably offer Freddie something like 6 X 6.5-7M, so I can't see him going for 4 X 4M.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

If we can get hyman on a hometown discount contract that would really help us out

 

[Antropovsky]

If we can get hyman on a hometown discount contract that would really help us out

Sounds like a great children’s book “the hometown discount kid” maybe MSLE can buy millions of them in return for the discount?

 

[Legion34]

Lehner is younger than Freddie, with better career stats, better playoff success, and has been better the last few years as well. Every angle you look at it from says Lehner should be worth more, other than Lehner having fewer NHL games.

If Lehner got 5 X 5M, Freddie should be getting something like 4 X 4M. At Freddie's age and given the playoff struggles, plus coming off a pretty mediocre year generally, I wouldnt risk a 5 X 5M contract. This team is way too tight against the cap to risk a bad contract into someone's mid/late 30s.

Historically though, even at 32 next year, someone would probably offer Freddie something like 6 X 6.5-7M, so I can't see him going for 4 X 4M.

vegas is tax free

 

[HolyCrap]

vegas is tax free

Apparently the tax thing is totally a farce and means nothing. Lol. Just ask the geniuses from the small teams we pay to keep afloat.

 

[Fogelhund]

The Trade board is a weird and wonderful place at times.....

Someone just inquired about trading for E. Rasanen, and made a threat about it...

Value of: - E rasanen

They offered a 4th for him..... I'd take it and run.