Tracking the Blues’ Stanley Cup Quest: 2020 version [aka "Repeat the Feat"] (LOL) (3/12 - On hold)
- Thread starter Ted Hoffman
- Start date
Is he even still their starter? Seems like he is being outplayed lately by that short fat guy they have who I always envision chain-smoking between periods.
Geez, if Bishop didn’t win the respect of Blues fans last postseason, what the hell is a guy supposed to do?
Ya man, he totally earned respect by being a flopping piece of shit.
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,222
- 8,632
Games Remaining: 14
Current Points: 90
Current Position: 1st in Central [2 points ahead of Colorado, who has a game in hand]
Home Games Remaining: 7 [current record at home: 23-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 7 [current record on road: 17-12-5]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to target: 1-13-0
Next 5 Games:
3/8 - at Chicago
3/9 - vs. Florida
3/11 - at Anaheim (already 1-1!)
3/13 - vs. San Jose
3/15 - vs. Ottawa
All good things must come to an end. We remain 2 points away from unofficially clinching. A Vancouver win would nudge the Canucks back into the 2WC spot. Calgary beat Arizona and Winnipeg blanked Vegas, so the Coyotes get shoved a little farther back from a playoff spot and the Flames close the gap on the Golden Knights.
UPDATE: Colorado loses, so no damage done tonight; we remain in 1st place. Just sucks that we lose to the 26th place team in the league.
Current Points: 90
Current Position: 1st in Central [2 points ahead of Colorado, who has a game in hand]
Home Games Remaining: 7 [current record at home: 23-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 7 [current record on road: 17-12-5]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to target: 1-13-0
Next 5 Games:
3/8 - at Chicago
3/9 - vs. Florida
3/11 - at Anaheim (already 1-1!)
3/13 - vs. San Jose
3/15 - vs. Ottawa
All good things must come to an end. We remain 2 points away from unofficially clinching. A Vancouver win would nudge the Canucks back into the 2WC spot. Calgary beat Arizona and Winnipeg blanked Vegas, so the Coyotes get shoved a little farther back from a playoff spot and the Flames close the gap on the Golden Knights.
UPDATE: Colorado loses, so no damage done tonight; we remain in 1st place. Just sucks that we lose to the 26th place team in the league.
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Brockon
Cautiously optimistic realist when caffeinated.
I'm missing something here... What are you counting down/referencing for winning the division at 29?
Fill a brother in?
Actually that's not correct either. If the Blues get 28 and the Avs get 29 the Blues still win the division. So I don't see how the magic number is 29.
The magic number is a combination of points St Louis gains and points Colorado misses out on. When that sum is equal to 29, the Avs will not be able to pass the Blues no matter what else happens. I'm assuming the tie-breaker is going to Colorado (since they are way ahead there) and that Dallas doesn't overtake Colorado. If Colorado starts having a bunch of OT wins, enough to change the tie-breaker, then its possible the magic number is actually one less. Don't hold your breath.
EDIT:
I'll show my work.
St Louis has 90 points, 14 games left (118 max points possible), with 31 RW
Colorado has 88 points, 15 games left (118 points possible), with 36 RW
In other words, if both teams win out, the Blues will lose on the tie-breaker. For every point Colorado fails to obtain, the Blues need one less point to stay ahead. Voila, the magic number (with those assumptions I mentioned) is 29!
EDIT of the EDIT:
How come Mud the ACAS doesn't have to explain his numbers? I thought 'magic numbers' were pretty familiar concepts, but maybe not if you only follow hockey.
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Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,222
- 8,632
1. I'm an actuary, so everyone hears that and says whoa, he's an actuary, he's f***ing smart. (And then, they put me on their "do not invite to a party .... evar" list.)
2. We just make it all up anyway, but we make it sound so f***ing believable no one ever questions us.
But to the question at hand: yes, our magic number to clinch the division is 29 - but I swear to God, if this team suddenly goes into a 3-4 game funk I'm kicking your ass for jumping ahead on this.
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Brockon
Cautiously optimistic realist when caffeinated.
Because Mud doesn't reference the Magic number directly in his posts.
And, because I only follow hockey, the reference is lost on me.
Edit: Thanks for filling me in.
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,222
- 8,632
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,222
- 8,632
Games Remaining: 13
Current Points: 92
Current Position: 1st in Central [4 points ahead of Colorado, who has 2 games in hand]
Home Games Remaining: 7 [current record at home: 23-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 6 [current record on road: 18-12-5]
As of March 8, the Blues have practically clinched a playoff spot.
Magic Number to officially clinch a playoff spot: 11
Magic Number to clinch top-3 in the Central: 12
Next 5 Games:
3/9 - vs. Florida
3/11 - at Anaheim (already 1-1!)
3/13 - vs. San Jose
3/15 - vs. Ottawa
3/17 - at Philadelphia
THE BLUES ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS! Unofficially, of course, but whoever finishes 9th is incredibly likely to be under 92 points. IMO, we can safely start talking playoffs. And just think, it wasn't that long ago that 1st-9th were separated by a mere 6 points.
For official playoff-clinching purposes, the team we're marking to right now is Minnesota who's at 75 points with 14 to go. They can get to 103; assuming we stay ahead of the Wild on regulation wins (we currently lead 32-30), our magic number to clinch is 11 points. If for some reason we can't stay up on RWs, it's 12. We'll use the former as long as we're up.
For top-3 in the division, we're watching Nashville. The Predators are at 76 points with 14 to go; that means they can get to 104, and with us ahead on regulation wins 31-27 - we'll assume we stay ahead there - the magic number for top-3 in the division is 12 points. Since it's practically the same as playoff-clinching (and at some point could be the same), I'll track this too.
I'm not going to keep track of "to clinch the division" just yet, so here's your update and we'll pick it back up when we lock down a top-3 spot: tonight's win moves that to 27 (Colorado has 88 points, can get to 118 but they clearly hold the first tiebreak on us so we have to win outright, meaning we need 119 - or, 27 more).
Current Points: 92
Current Position: 1st in Central [4 points ahead of Colorado, who has 2 games in hand]
Home Games Remaining: 7 [current record at home: 23-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 6 [current record on road: 18-12-5]
As of March 8, the Blues have practically clinched a playoff spot.
Magic Number to officially clinch a playoff spot: 11
Magic Number to clinch top-3 in the Central: 12
Next 5 Games:
3/9 - vs. Florida
3/11 - at Anaheim (already 1-1!)
3/13 - vs. San Jose
3/15 - vs. Ottawa
3/17 - at Philadelphia
THE BLUES ARE IN THE PLAYOFFS! Unofficially, of course, but whoever finishes 9th is incredibly likely to be under 92 points. IMO, we can safely start talking playoffs. And just think, it wasn't that long ago that 1st-9th were separated by a mere 6 points.
For official playoff-clinching purposes, the team we're marking to right now is Minnesota who's at 75 points with 14 to go. They can get to 103; assuming we stay ahead of the Wild on regulation wins (we currently lead 32-30), our magic number to clinch is 11 points. If for some reason we can't stay up on RWs, it's 12. We'll use the former as long as we're up.
For top-3 in the division, we're watching Nashville. The Predators are at 76 points with 14 to go; that means they can get to 104, and with us ahead on regulation wins 31-27 - we'll assume we stay ahead there - the magic number for top-3 in the division is 12 points. Since it's practically the same as playoff-clinching (and at some point could be the same), I'll track this too.
I'm not going to keep track of "to clinch the division" just yet, so here's your update and we'll pick it back up when we lock down a top-3 spot: tonight's win moves that to 27 (Colorado has 88 points, can get to 118 but they clearly hold the first tiebreak on us so we have to win outright, meaning we need 119 - or, 27 more).
I gave it an honest try a couple years ago. I made it to the 3rd inning before falling asleep. I enjoy the World Series no matter who is playing, I guess it feels like that's the only time a game matters.
542365
2018-19 Cup Champs!
- Mar 22, 2012
- 22,326
- 8,702
My single contribution, tracking the magic number to win the Division:
27
Blues and Avs both win again. Blues 2 points ahead, Avs have a game in hand. Both play again tomorrow.
27
Blues and Avs both win again. Blues 2 points ahead, Avs have a game in hand. Both play again tomorrow.
Magic number to win the division is 25. The Kings have won like 6 in a row, including the Avs tonight.
McKinnon had to leave the game with a lower body injury. Now they have McKinnon, Kadri, Makar, Rantanen and Grubauer all out. Crazy!
McKinnon had to leave the game with a lower body injury. Now they have McKinnon, Kadri, Makar, Rantanen and Grubauer all out. Crazy!
CaliforniaBlues310
Registered User
Was at the game and the Kings dominated for 50 minutes. I know they played last night, but they looked rough.
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,222
- 8,632
Games Remaining: 12
Current Points: 92
Current Position: 1st in Central [2 points ahead of Colorado, who has a game in hand]
Home Games Remaining: 6 [current record at home: 23-7-5]
Road Games Remaining: 6 [current record on road: 18-12-5]
As of March 8, the Blues have practically clinched a playoff spot.
Magic Number to officially clinch a playoff spot: 12
Magic Number to clinch top-3 in the Central: 12
Next 5 Games:
3/11 - at Anaheim (already 1-1!)
3/13 - vs. San Jose
3/15 - vs. Ottawa
3/17 - at Philadelphia
3/19 - at Carolina
Not a great night (we lost), but not as bad as it could have been (Colorado lost as well). Let's take advantage of the next 3 games, because the four after that are going to be dogfights.
I looked at our magic number for officially clinching a playoff spot, and re-calculated it at 12. I had us tracking off Minnesota; for now, we should be tracking off Vancouver or Nashville instead - whichever is doing better. They're both at 76 points with 14 to play, meaning they can get to 104. We're well ahead on regulation wins, so a tie should go to us. Movement here and on top-3 may be a little herky-jerky depending on who each calculation is being based off of; hopefully, we just reel off 4-in-5 and get a couple losses and we're done with that soon and can move on to Stupendous Yappi's item of interest.
Current Points: 92
Current Position: 1st in Central [2 points ahead of Colorado, who has a game in hand]
Home Games Remaining: 6 [current record at home: 23-7-5]
Road Games Remaining: 6 [current record on road: 18-12-5]
As of March 8, the Blues have practically clinched a playoff spot.
Magic Number to officially clinch a playoff spot: 12
Magic Number to clinch top-3 in the Central: 12
Next 5 Games:
3/11 - at Anaheim (already 1-1!)
3/13 - vs. San Jose
3/15 - vs. Ottawa
3/17 - at Philadelphia
3/19 - at Carolina
Not a great night (we lost), but not as bad as it could have been (Colorado lost as well). Let's take advantage of the next 3 games, because the four after that are going to be dogfights.
I looked at our magic number for officially clinching a playoff spot, and re-calculated it at 12. I had us tracking off Minnesota; for now, we should be tracking off Vancouver or Nashville instead - whichever is doing better. They're both at 76 points with 14 to play, meaning they can get to 104. We're well ahead on regulation wins, so a tie should go to us. Movement here and on top-3 may be a little herky-jerky depending on who each calculation is being based off of; hopefully, we just reel off 4-in-5 and get a couple losses and we're done with that soon and can move on to Stupendous Yappi's item of interest.
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,222
- 8,632
Based on current events, I'll try to get an update on this shortly and tweak tonight based on results. I think it's understating things to say "this is about to get really messy" so I'll lay out all my assumptions and everything else will have to wait to see what the NHL does.
I’m hoping for a one month hiatus maybe. But how do teams stay sharp during a break like this?
Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,222
- 8,632
Pending the final results of tonight's games, here's the standings in the Western Conference for teams with a semi-realistic shot of getting into the playoffs:
[TBODY]
[/TBODY]Games of note tonight
St. Louis 4, Anaheim 2
Colorado 3, NY Rangers 2 (OT)
Winnipeg 4, Edmonton 2
The above is how the standings would look if the regular season ended tonight. Since everyone has a dissimilar number of games played, teams get ranked on point%. Thus, while Winnipeg moved ahead of Nashville, Vancouver and Calgary on points with a win tonight, if the season ended after tonight they'd miss the playoffs because they trail on point%.
St. Louis remains ahead of Colorado after tonight if the Blues pick up at least as many points against the Ducks as Colorado does against the Rangers. Otherwise, the Avalanche will pull in front. Nashville, despite being 6th in the West (tied on point% with Vancouver but leading on regulation wins), would be 4th in the Central and thus fall into the 1WC spot.
Playoff pairings based on standings above
(1C) St. Louis vs. (2WC) Calgary
(2C) Colorado vs. (3C) Dallas
(1P) Vegas vs. (1WC) Nashville
(2P) Edmonton vs. (3P) Vancouver
If the season continues, then we continue with the normal countdowns and it looks like this (again, pending the result of the Anaheim game):
Current Points: 92
Current Position: 1st in Central [2 points ahead of Colorado, who has a game in hand]
Home Games Remaining: 6 [current record at home: 23-7-5]
Road Games Remaining: 6 [current record on road: 18-12-5]
As of March 8, the Blues have practically clinched a playoff spot.
Magic Number to officially clinch a playoff spot: 11
Magic Number to clinch top-3 in the Central: 12
Next 5 Games
3/13 - vs. San Jose
3/15 - vs. Ottawa
3/17 - at Philadelphia
3/19 - at Carolina
3/21 - at Florida
Games TBD
| Team | GP | W | L | OT | PTS | RW | ROW | Point% | |
| 1 | St. Louis | 71 | 42 | 19 | 10 | 94 | 33 | 40 | 0.661972 |
| 2 | Colorado | 70 | 42 | 20 | 8 | 92 | 37 | 41 | 0.657143 |
| 3 | Vegas | 71 | 39 | 24 | 8 | 86 | 30 | 36 | 0.605634 |
| 4 | Dallas | 69 | 37 | 24 | 8 | 82 | 26 | 35 | 0.594203 |
| 5 | Edmonton | 71 | 37 | 25 | 9 | 83 | 31 | 35 | 0.584507 |
| 6 | Nashville | 69 | 35 | 26 | 8 | 78 | 28 | 32 | 0.565217 |
| 7 | Vancouver | 69 | 36 | 27 | 6 | 78 | 27 | 32 | 0.565217 |
| 8 | Calgary | 70 | 36 | 27 | 7 | 79 | 25 | 30 | 0.564286 |
| 9 | Winnipeg | 71 | 37 | 28 | 6 | 80 | 30 | 33 | 0.563380 |
| 10 | Minnesota | 70 | 35 | 27 | 7 | 77 | 30 | 33 | 0.557971 |
| 11 | Arizona | 70 | 33 | 29 | 8 | 74 | 26 | 28 | 0.528571 |
| 12 | Chicago | 70 | 32 | 30 | 8 | 72 | 23 | 28 | 0.514286 |
St. Louis 4, Anaheim 2
Colorado 3, NY Rangers 2 (OT)
Winnipeg 4, Edmonton 2
The above is how the standings would look if the regular season ended tonight. Since everyone has a dissimilar number of games played, teams get ranked on point%. Thus, while Winnipeg moved ahead of Nashville, Vancouver and Calgary on points with a win tonight, if the season ended after tonight they'd miss the playoffs because they trail on point%.
St. Louis remains ahead of Colorado after tonight if the Blues pick up at least as many points against the Ducks as Colorado does against the Rangers. Otherwise, the Avalanche will pull in front. Nashville, despite being 6th in the West (tied on point% with Vancouver but leading on regulation wins), would be 4th in the Central and thus fall into the 1WC spot.
Playoff pairings based on standings above
(1C) St. Louis vs. (2WC) Calgary
(2C) Colorado vs. (3C) Dallas
(1P) Vegas vs. (1WC) Nashville
(2P) Edmonton vs. (3P) Vancouver
If the season continues, then we continue with the normal countdowns and it looks like this (again, pending the result of the Anaheim game):
Current Points: 92
Current Position: 1st in Central [2 points ahead of Colorado, who has a game in hand]
Home Games Remaining: 6 [current record at home: 23-7-5]
Road Games Remaining: 6 [current record on road: 18-12-5]
As of March 8, the Blues have practically clinched a playoff spot.
Magic Number to officially clinch a playoff spot: 11
Magic Number to clinch top-3 in the Central: 12
Next 5 Games
Games TBD
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Ted Hoffman
The other Rick Zombo
- Dec 15, 2002
- 29,222
- 8,632
Great question. File it under "questions we're asking but have no answers for." I suspect we're going to have a LONG list of those, regardless of what announcement the league makes tomorrow.
