Tracking the Blues’ Stanley Cup Quest: 2020 version [aka "Repeat the Feat"] (LOL) (3/12 - On hold)

[Ted Hoffman]

I would say the playoffs are pretty much guaranteed at this point so I was wondering if you'd be able to do this for first in the central?

I've watched this team do bizarre stuff for 40+ years. Just like we've all learned "we're not out until we're completely out," we don't treat anything as guaranteed until it's really guaranteed.

First, we clinch a playoff spot, then we start discussing playoff seeding.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 17
Current Points: 86
Current Position: 1st in Central [5 points ahead of Colorado, who has 3 games in hand; 6 points ahead of Dallas]
Home Games Remaining: 8 [current record at home: 22-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 9 [current record on road: 16-11-5]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to target: 3-14-0

Next 5 Games:
2/29 - vs. Dallas
3/3 - at NY Rangers
3/6 - at New Jersey
3/8 - at Chicago
3/9 - vs. Florida

We probably shouldn't have had 2 points tonight, given how it went for a while. Doesn't matter, we got them. Would have been nice for Colorado to lose last night, but Dallas did their part and lost to Boston (in regulation, even!) and that helps. We can really kick the Stars behind us with a win Saturday night. A loss isn't crushing, but it would give the Avs more leeway to catch up.

[As I was prepping this, Nashville won in OT to pull into the 2nd wild card spot. f***ing Predators.]

That "points needed" mark might still be a point high. Minnesota is on pace for 90, Winnipeg for 89 and all we need is "more points than whoever's going to the the first team out." Still leaving it where it is, though; 17 games to play, I don't think (I hope to hell it's not the case) that we're going to struggle to get 6 more points the rest of the way.

As requested above, when (not if) we unofficially clinch a playoff spot I'll start countdowns for other stuff and start laying out how playoff seeds would be. However, pretty sure the Blues aren't printing playoff tickets yet; likewise, we're not counting down what we need to secure a top-3 spot, win the division, lock up home ice, etc. until we clear the unofficial hurdle first.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I wouldn't be so quick to jump to that conclusion. Dom Luszczyszyn has a standings projection updated daily on The Athletic website, along with odds to make and win each playoff round, based solely on analytics and 0% on emotion. When we were in our swoon a few weeks ago Colorado actually passed us briefly, but that simulation generally has us finishing 2-3 points ahead of Colorado. We have been missing Tarasenko almost all year but are due to get him back soon and Colorado is without Grubauer, Rantanen, and Kadri along with a couple of role players for the next couple of weeks, so nothing is a slam dunk.

Interestingly, now that we've won the last 5 games, the simulation has us tied for the 2nd best odds to win the Cup. We are tied with Boston at 12% with Tampa leading at 21%. By this simulation, and by the eye test, a SCF rematch is certainly not out of the question.

Yeah, I follow Dom’s model. I just think Colorado is more likely to get hot and charge past the Blues, with a favorable schedule. Somehow the Blues got 4 points out of the last 2 games when it could easily have been 0. Crazy time of the season.

 

[Joshuar56]

After the Dallas game the Blue’s schedule is pretty easy until the final 2 games of the season against BOS and COL. Only 2 playoff teams out of 13 and one is the Flyers. Only 5 playoff teams out of their final 17 games. Hopefully they get it done against teams they should beat.

 

[Joshuar56]

Yeah, I follow Dom’s model. I just think Colorado is more likely to get hot and charge past the Blues, with a favorable schedule. Somehow the Blues got 4 points out of the last 2 games when it could easily have been 0. Crazy time of the season.

Not sure how you think Colorado has a favorable schedule going forward. They have 5 divisional games against the preds and jets, 3 of them on the road which is never easy. They also play Vancouver twice and Vegas one more time. Blues have two very tough games against Boston and Washington, but overall I think have the easier schedule. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Blues finish with 110-114 points. I think they could win 13 of their final 17 games so long as they stay healthy.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Not sure how you think Colorado has a favorable schedule going forward. They have 5 divisional games against the preds and jets, 3 of them on the road which is never easy. They also play Vancouver twice and Vegas one more time. Blues have two very tough games against Boston and Washington, but overall I think have the easier schedule. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Blues finish with 110-114 points. I think they could win 13 of their final 17 games so long as they stay healthy.

We’ll see. I think the Blues will probably look disorganized for a while as they try to work Tarasenko back in. And they have not proven they can PK effectively without Bouwmeester. I have confidence that they’ll get the house in order by the playoffs, but I don’t see them going through a victory march the rest of the season.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Blues finish with 110-114 points. I think they could win 13 of their final 17 games so long as they stay healthy.

I wanted to poo-poo this idea, but then I realized 110 is going 12-5-0 and that's not that too far-fetched. 14-3-0 (what would get to 114) is probably pushing it, though.

 

[Mike Liut]

After the Dallas game the Blue’s schedule is pretty easy until the final 2 games of the season against BOS and COL. Only 2 playoff teams out of 13 and one is the Flyers. Only 5 playoff teams out of their final 17 games. Hopefully they get it done against teams they should beat.

If it wasn’t for that 12 game bad stretch, the Blues would be leading the Presidents trophy and have an easy remaining schedule. Only 3 games back of the leading the nhl.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 16
Current Points: 88
Current Position: 1st in Central [3 points ahead of Colorado, who has 2 games in hand; 7 points ahead of Dallas]
Home Games Remaining: 7 [current record at home: 23-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 9 [current record on road: 16-11-5]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to target: 2-14-0

Next 5 Games:
3/3 - at NY Rangers
3/6 - at New Jersey
3/8 - at Chicago
3/9 - vs. Florida
3/11 - at Anaheim (already 1-1!)

Colorado won't quit winning, so we can't open up a little breathing room. But, we took both points tonight after trying to give it away so the pressure remains on the Avs to keep matching.

If the playoffs started today (pending Edmonton vs. Winnipeg, currently in progress)
(1C) St. Louis vs. (2WC) Minnesota
(2C) Colorado vs. (3C) Dallas

(1P) Vegas vs. (1WC) Nashville
(2P) Edmonton vs. (3P) Vancouver

-- On point%, Nashville (.5625) leads Minnesota (.5547) who leads Calgary (.5530)
-- Edmonton leads Vancouver on regulation wins 28-26

 

[Novacain]

Minnesota charging towards the playoffs still is impressive.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Minnesota charging towards the playoffs still is impressive.

I’d like to see the Wild sneak in instead of the Preds.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Off-night update.

4 inter-conference games on Sunday, only the Flames win. Los Angeles dumped Vegas. No damage done, Calgary just moves ahead of Minnesota for the 2nd wild card spot.

Tonight: Colorado moves ahead of us (87 points in 65 games, point% .669 vs our .667) because ... f*** Colorado. And, f*** Detroit. And also, f*** Detroit. Nashville gets blown out by Edmonton after having it tied 3-3 through two periods, so they fall back behind Calgary (.560 for the Flames to .554 for the Predators) but still hold the 2nd wild card spot.

The Avs are going to hold a game in hand on us until the 23rd. From there, we'll play the 24th, they'll play the 25th, then we'll both play on the same day through the season finale.

Back to our serve tomorrow night, and I hear people on teh airwaves tabbing the Rangers to win. Let's prove 'em wrong and put the pressure back on the Avs.

 

[The Note]

Dom over at The Athletic posted an article tracking SoS over the last stretch of the season for teams battling for positioning. Essentially, all of Dallas, STL, and COL have easier than average schedules. It doesn't look like the Avs are gonna f*** off so the Blues are going to have to keep pace.

Here's the article (paywall):
By the numbers: How schedule strength might affect the NHL...

 

[Brian39]

have you seen the Avs schedule the rest of the way? if you think the Blues have an easy schedule, check out Colorado's. They may not lose more than a couple games the rest of the way.

11 of Colorado's remaining 17 games are against teams currently in the playoffs or within 1 point.

5 of our remaining 16 are against teams in the playoffs or within 1 point.

We have 4 games against top 10 NHL teams while they have 2. So our schedule is a bit more top heavy, but they play way more desperate bubble teams while we play a bunch of bottom feeders.

 

[Brian39]

FWIW, my friends who are Avs fans are absolutely livid about the Blues right now. They have won 7 straight while battling injuries and ave gained zero ground. This is going to be a dogfight, but it is fantastic to listen to them complain about our 7 game win streak while they are on a simultaneous win streak.

 

[542365]

Don't care about where we finish, but please no Stars in the first round. It's looking more and more like a distinct possibility, but I think if we draw anyone else in the first round we'll be meeting Vegas in the WCF for what would be a dogfight. I'd much rather play the Avs than the Stars even though the Avs will probably end up with a better record.

 

[Stealth JD]

Does anyone really worry about playing the Stars in round 1 after having taken 9 of 10 points in the season series? I think Dallas realizes the Blues are their kryptonite, and even though (most of) the games have been close I don't know that the Stars have a whole lot more they can throw at the Blues than they have already. I'd rather play Dallas than Colorado in the playoffs, and while it would be better to let those teams duke it out in round 1, a first-round matchup between STL & DAL is hardly a dire situation. It would be nice to have home-ice throughout the Western Conference playoffs...but that hardly mattered last year with the third-seed in the Central.

 

[MissouriMook]

Does anyone really worry about playing the Stars in round 1 after having taken 9 of 10 points in the season series? I think Dallas realizes the Blues are their kryptonite, and even though (most of) the games have been close I don't know that the Stars have a whole lot more they can throw at the Blues than they have already. I'd rather play Dallas than Colorado in the playoffs, and while it would be better to let those teams duke it out in round 1, a first-round matchup between STL & DAL is hardly a dire situation. It would be nice to have home-ice throughout the Western Conference playoffs...but that hardly mattered last year with the third-seed in the Central.

I think a lot of it has to do with a previously stated preference not to face a team with a goalie that frequently enters "God Mode". Under normal circumstances, we seem to handle the Stars just fine, but I think people are worried about 2019 Game 7 Bishop showing up for 2-3 games and tipping the balance of the series.

FWIW, I don't really care who we play in the first round as long as it is as the #1 seed in the West. That is primarily because I don't want to have to face both Dallas and Colorado, who I consider to be the second and third best teams in the West. I'd rather face whoever in Round 1 and let them face each other.

 

[KingBran]

Yeah, I follow Dom’s model. I just think Colorado is more likely to get hot and charge past the Blues, with a favorable schedule. Somehow the Blues got 4 points out of the last 2 games when it could easily have been 0. Crazy time of the season.

I used to follow Dom (I let my athletic subscription run out) until his model before game 6 of the SCF had the Blues winning the cup at like 78% but Boston was projected to win game 6 54% in favor and game 7 was something like 80% for Boston.

Then before game 7 the Blues might as well not even show up.

His greaphs and stuff are fun but it's like why would you put stock in any of it? The games are still played on the ice. If stats were all that mattered there would be no reason for playoffs.

 

[Brian39]

Does anyone really worry about playing the Stars in round 1 after having taken 9 of 10 points in the season series? I think Dallas realizes the Blues are their kryptonite, and even though (most of) the games have been close I don't know that the Stars have a whole lot more they can throw at the Blues than they have already. I'd rather play Dallas than Colorado in the playoffs, and while it would be better to let those teams duke it out in round 1, a first-round matchup between STL & DAL is hardly a dire situation. It would be nice to have home-ice throughout the Western Conference playoffs...but that hardly mattered last year with the third-seed in the Central.

Every game but one was either tied or a 1 goal game with 30 seconds left in regulation.

Last year we went to double OT in game 7 in a series where 5 of the 7 games were either tied or 1 goal games with 30 seconds left in regulation.

That's 9 of our last 12 meetings that were very, very close games.

The fact that we came out on top in 3 of 4 one-goal games this year doesn't exactly suggest that we are dominant.

And then you have Ben Bishop who has a career .929 playoff SV% and a career .939 in the first round (.922, .950, and .945 in his 3 opening round series). He posted a .922 against us last season, which included 4 performances of .930+, 3 performances of .940+ and 2 performances of .960+ over a 7 game series. His first ever playoff series (where he posted a .922) is the only series in his career where he has failed to post at least 3 games of a .930+. He has consistently been good for 2 wins almost by himself in any given playoff series. There is only one goalie with 10+ playoff starts since 2014/15 with a higher playoff SV% than Ben Bishop. Since 2015/16, he has a .936 playoff SV% through 24 games. The next best goalie with 10+ games in that stretch has a .926 (which is oddly Jake Allen whose sample is almost all one season where he had that lights out Minnesota series and decent numbers the next round). Ben Bishop is statistically the best playoff goalie of the last 5 years by a pretty substantial margin.

I would be surprised if it is less than a 6 game series of mostly hard fought, high intensity games. Bishop alone is damn near an assurance that his team is going to at least get to a game 6 and probably a game 7 if the offense shows up for more than 1 or 2 games. More than anyone in the league at the moment, Ben Bishop can beat you by himself. Even if you beat them in 6, you are coming out of that series a hell of a lot more worn out than an average 6 game series.

 

[Sgt Schultz]

Maybe it's me, but playing a wild card in the first round is not an easy draw. Too often they are a team that has essentially been playing playoff hockey for several weeks, unless it is a team that fell from the upper tier and managed to hold onto a wild card spot despite a free fall. So, they are used to treating every game as if it is critical. I think that is why the #1 seeds fell like dominos in last year's playoffs.

As long as the Avs keep playing well and putting the pressure on, we will be used to every game having meaning, too. Finishing 1 vs. 2 in the division is not the same urgency as being in or out completely, but it still makes the games meaningful and hopefully keeps the team on its game. That is, provided we don't wear ourselves down in the process, as the #1 seed in the division (or conference) is not worth that price.

Right now, there are six or seven teams in the West that need to play at a playoff level just to make the wild card or #3 slot in the Pacific.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Maybe it's me, but playing a wild card in the first round is not an easy draw. Too often they are a team that has essentially been playing playoff hockey for several weeks, unless it is a team that fell from the upper tier and managed to hold onto a wild card spot despite a free fall. So, they are used to treating every game as if it is critical. I think that is why the #1 seeds fell like dominos in last year's playoffs.

As long as the Avs keep playing well and putting the pressure on, we will be used to every game having meaning, too. Finishing 1 vs. 2 in the division is not the same urgency as being in or out completely, but it still makes the games meaningful and hopefully keeps the team on its game. That is, provided we don't wear ourselves down in the process, as the #1 seed in the division (or conference) is not worth that price.

Right now, there are six or seven teams in the West that need to play at a playoff level just to make the wild card or #3 slot in the Pacific.

There are no easy draws.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Finally back after an unscheduled overnight trip.

Games Remaining: 15
Current Points: 90
Current Position: 1st in Central [2 points ahead of Colorado, who has a game in hand]
Home Games Remaining: 7 [current record at home: 23-6-5]
Road Games Remaining: 8 [current record on road: 17-11-5]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to target: 1-14-0

Next 5 Games:
3/6 - at New Jersey
3/8 - at Chicago
3/9 - vs. Florida
3/11 - at Anaheim (already 1-1!)
3/13 - vs. San Jose

Notes
1. Dallas is 8 points back (with a game in hand), so I'm dropping them off the "current position" section. Let's hope we don't have a reason to add them back.
2. Once we hit 92 points, I'll begin officially tracking magic number to clinch a playoff spot. For those interested, it's currently 16: Minnesota has 73 points with 16 games remaining, meaning they could max out at 105.

We're 2 points away from unofficially clinching. We should (better) beat the Devils to make that happen. Colorado lost in Anaheim last night, but got a point out of it. Vancouver has fallen to the 1WC spot, Minnesota currently remains in the 2WC spot. Chicago is close to unofficially falling out; they get Edmonton tonight, then Detroit tomorrow night. (Can we root for both the Blackhawks and Red Wings to lose?)

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

I’ll simply add, the Magic Number to clinch the division is 31. It’s tight with Colorado and likely to last until the end, maybe final game.

 

[Blueston]

I’ll simply add, the Magic Number to clinch the division is 31. It’s tight with Colorado and likely to last until the end, maybe final game.

I’d rather us enter playoffs healthy and reasonably rested than focused intently on winning division. Stars are good team but not convinced they are significantly tougher opponents than some of the Wild Card contenders.