Tracking the Blues’ Stanley Cup Quest—LOL

[Ted Hoffman]

Going to see if I can find a model I built years ago for season simulation and (1) update it, (2) still get it to run, (3) make the improvements to it that I think it still needed.

So, with any luck I will have something in a couple days. Otherwise, who knows how long this will take to rebuild.

And I also need to update a few things above, but that's minor.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 47
Home Games Remaining: 20 [current record at home: 9-9-2]
Road Games Remaining: 27 [current record on road: 6-7-2]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 93
Sample Record that would get us to target: 28-16-3

Next 5 Games:
12/29/18 - vs. Pittsburgh [19-12-6, 3rd in Metropolitan; 7-2-1 in last 10]
12/31/18 - vs. NY Rangers [15-14-7, 10th in Eastern Conference; 2-3-5 in last 10]
1/3/19 - vs. Washington [23-10-3, 1st in Metropolitan; 8-2-0 in last 10]
1/5/19 - vs. NY Islanders [18-13-4, 9th in Eastern Conference; 5-4-1 in last 10]
1/7/19 - at Philadelphia [15-16-5, 13th in Eastern Conference; 4-4-2 in last 10]

And then there's still vs. Dallas, vs. Montreal before we go out on the road for a couple months. So, it goes without saying that we probably need to make lots of hay in the next 7 games. [And, we need current Jake Allen to stick around for the rest of the season and not go on a midseason hiatus / Binnington to step up and seize the #1 spot in net and push Allen out for good.]

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 46
Home Games Remaining: 19 [current record at home: 9-10-2]
Road Games Remaining: 27 [current record on road: 6-7-2]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: 9 [not factoring in tie-breakers]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 93
Sample Record that would get us to target: 28-15-3

Next 6 Games:
12/31/18 - vs. NY Rangers [16-14-7, 10th in Eastern Conference; 3-2-5 in last 10]
1/3/19 - vs. Washington [24-10-3, 1st in Metropolitan; 9-1-0 in last 10]
1/5/19 - vs. NY Islanders [20-13-4, 9th in Eastern Conference; 7-2-1 in last 10]
1/7/19 - at Philadelphia [15-17-5, 14th in Eastern Conference; 3-5-2 in last 10]
1/8/19 - vs. Dallas [20-16-3, 1st Wild Card in Western Conference; 4-6-0 in last 10]
1/10/19 - vs. Montreal [20-14-5, 2nd Wild Card in Eastern Conference; 6-4-0 in last 10]

That gets us to "the road trip" and if we're not close to being near a playoff spot here, you're hoping they get their shit together on the road. We need at least 4-2-0 in the next 6, and I think that's probably as good as it gets.

Not helping tonight: Dallas whacked Detroit and Anaheim currently leads Arizona.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Games Remaining: 46
Home Games Remaining: 19 [current record at home: 9-10-2]
Road Games Remaining: 27 [current record on road: 6-7-2]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: 9 [not factoring in tie-breakers]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 93
Sample Record that would get us to target: 28-15-3

Next 6 Games:
12/31/18 - vs. NY Rangers [16-14-7, 10th in Eastern Conference; 3-2-5 in last 10]
1/3/19 - vs. Washington [24-10-3, 1st in Metropolitan; 9-1-0 in last 10]
1/5/19 - vs. NY Islanders [20-13-4, 9th in Eastern Conference; 7-2-1 in last 10]
1/7/19 - at Philadelphia [15-17-5, 14th in Eastern Conference; 3-5-2 in last 10]
1/8/19 - vs. Dallas [20-16-3, 1st Wild Card in Western Conference; 4-6-0 in last 10]
1/10/19 - vs. Montreal [20-14-5, 2nd Wild Card in Eastern Conference; 6-4-0 in last 10]

That gets us to "the road trip" and if we're not close to being near a playoff spot here, you're hoping they get their **** together on the road. We need at least 4-2-0 in the next 6, and I think that's probably as good as it gets.

Not helping tonight: Dallas whacked Detroit and Anaheim currently leads Arizona.

Ironically enough, win two and then get blown out one might just do it.

 

[TruBlu]

Ironically enough, win two and then get blown out one might just do it.

An example of a team with a current p% like what IB posted is Calgary. They are currently 5th in points in the league. Your typical president's trophy winner from year to year is usually in the vicinity of a hair over/under .700 p%. I'm not sure if you really believe we are going to make a run like that, or if you're trying to be upbeat and positive (I wish I could do that, but I believe 100% we will miss the playoffs), but I don't want you to be disappointed in ten games when we are in a position to have to win 3/4 games for the rest of the season to get in.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

An example of a team with a current p% like what IB posted is Calgary. They are currently 5th in points in the league. Your typical president's trophy winner from year to year is usually in the vicinity of a hair over/under .700 p%. I'm not sure if you really believe we are going to make a run like that, or if you're trying to be upbeat and positive (I wish I could do that, but I believe 100% we will miss the playoffs), but I don't want you to be disappointed in ten games when we are in a position to have to win 3/4 games for the rest of the season to get in.

I have no illusions about this team, but I am enjoying seeing them compete better. If last night’s game had stayed 5 on 5, I thought the Blues looked pretty competitive. I think they are trending better, but it probably won’t be enough.

I’d still like to see the new coach named sooner than later. I’d like a better starting goalie. But I won’t be shocked if the Blues manage to claw back into it either. They haven’t packed it in this season. Even though the score got ugly last night, this looked different than the early season blowouts where they just looked confused.

 

[TruBlu]

I don't see any difference in their play. The continuous blowouts are very disturbing to me. They just don't look like they know how to fix it. I'd only want a coaching change if we got a proven coach who would be able to bring his own crew in. I want a clean wipe of the entire staff. We are pretty much playing almost the exact same system, and I don't think that is a winning system anymore. The sheer number of penalties we are taking means we are getting beat by pretty much every team we play. We are either getting outskated, out of position due to a lack of a viable system, or more likely, a combination of both.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

An example of a team with a current p% like what IB posted is Calgary. They are currently 5th in points in the league. Your typical president's trophy winner from year to year is usually in the vicinity of a hair over/under .700 p%. I'm not sure if you really believe we are going to make a run like that, or if you're trying to be upbeat and positive (I wish I could do that, but I believe 100% we will miss the playoffs), but I don't want you to be disappointed in ten games when we are in a position to have to win 3/4 games for the rest of the season to get in.

Right now it's "only" about 103-point pace to get to 93, and as SY points out winning 2 of every 3 gets us pretty close to there. But we're winning about 2 of every 3 [and getting roasted in the 3rd] with Allen playing "OK" to the point people are trying to talk up his stats in a positive light. What happens when [not if] he goes into a funk again? Can this team recognize it early enough to get Binnington into net and get high-level play out of Binnington in that period of time?

For anyone thinking I'm being overly pessimistic: I'm not saying this team can't do it. Of course it could. I'm just saying the odds are really long and despite going 6-3-1 in the last 10 before last night, we had gained ... one (1) point on 8th place in the West. It looks easy on paper, but in practice it's more difficult and the climb out of the hole isn't happening quick without some kind of 9-1-0 run that this team looks nowhere near peeling off.

 

[TruBlu]

Right now it's "only" about 103-point pace to get to 93, and as SY points out winning 2 of every 3 gets us pretty close to there. But we're winning about 2 of every 3 [and getting roasted in the 3rd] with Allen playing "OK" to the point people are trying to talk up his stats in a positive light. What happens when [not if] he goes into a funk again? Can this team recognize it early enough to get Binnington into net and get high-level play out of Binnington in that period of time?

For anyone thinking I'm being overly pessimistic: I'm not saying this team can't do it. Of course it could. I'm just saying the odds are really long and despite going 6-3-1 in the last 10 before last night, we had gained ... one (1) point on 8th place in the West. It looks easy on paper, but in practice it's more difficult and the climb out of the hole isn't happening quick without some kind of 9-1-0 run that this team looks nowhere near peeling off.

That's the point I was making. Yeah, we could do it going at the same pace for the rest of the season, but there is no indication they have it together. Even if we did get it together, you are going to lose games at times even if you are a good team and play consistent hockey. At some point there's not going to be much track left at the end of the tunnel, and I think we are closer than most people think.

We know Jake will go through a bad stretch, every goalie does to some degree or another, but I don't have any faith in Binnington to be the answer. He's got to prove he can play at this level, and the team in front of him doesn't appear as though they are going to help him, or anyone in net, out.

 

[Mike Liut]

There’s lots of B2B’s and 3 in 4 coming up in the 2nd half. Much tougher schedule. Top 5 pick would be great.

 

[SneakerPimp82]

There’s lots of B2B’s and 3 in 4 coming up in the 2nd half. Much tougher schedule. Top 5 pick would be great.

lots of chances to exploit the lack of a capable backup and test the mental resiliency of this group. i'm hoping for a top 10 pick with a little lottery help to aid us in sneaking into the top 5.

 

[Zamadoo]

lots of chances to exploit the lack of a capable backup and test the mental resiliency of this group. i'm hoping for a top 10 pick with a little lottery help to aid us in sneaking into the top 5.

I can't allow the tank mentality to rest in my brain long enough to actually root for it to happen. However, it would be great if they stuck it out, had a decent run, finished bottom-15, and then got lottery help to aid us in sneaking into the top 10. If we had the #10OA pick, we would still be in really good position to make things happen.

I will still hold out hope that we keep a .650+ pace through January, make a trade or two over the week break, then come back and go on a tear through February to put us in playoff position. At that point, we'd be a good hockey team that can forget about 2018.

Realizing that this is not probable, I expect that many will disagree and wish to go with your option of mailing it in so that every game is a blow out instead of just every 3rd game.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

You look back the history of guys taken in the 10-14 range, there's a lot of pretenders there. If we aren't going to make the playoffs, don't half-ass it.

 

[TruBlu]

You look back the history of guys taken in the 10-14 range, there's a lot of pretenders there. If we aren't going to make the playoffs, don't half-ass it.

I would go as far as to say that anything out of the top 5 would have a good chance at a flop. We really need to stay about where we are right now to be confident of a good position due to the lottery. The problem with that is that we have several games in hand over a few of the teams currently below us in the standings. Although we are currently sitting in 3rd, we are actually probably 6th or 7th place once those games in hand are played.

 

[topshelf331]

Is this team going to be better next season being a year older? That's my only question when it comes to that top 10 pick. I'd be half tempted after the lottery results to let them have it if it's not top 5 to maybe 7. It all depends on what happens.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Well, that was probably 2 points we should have had if we wanted to keep this realistic.

Games Remaining: 45
Home Games Remaining: 18 [current record at home: 9-11-2]
Road Games Remaining: 27 [current record on road: 6-7-2]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: 10 [not factoring in tie-breakers]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 93
Sample Record that would get us to target: 28-14-3

Next 5 Games:
1/3/19 - vs. Washington [24-11-3, 1st in Metropolitan; 8-2-0 in last 10]
1/5/19 - vs. NY Islanders [21-13-4, 1st Wild Card in Eastern Conference; 7-2-1 in last 10]
1/7/19 - at Philadelphia [15-18-5, 14th in Eastern Conference; 3-5-2 in last 10]
1/8/19 - vs. Dallas [20-16-3, 1st Wild Card in Western Conference; 4-6-0 in last 10]
1/10/19 - vs. Montreal [20-14-5, 9th in Eastern Conference; 6-4-0 in last 10]

That's 107.5 point pace for those interested. And remember, after the 10th we have 9 of the next 10, 13 of the next 16, and 19 of the next 26 on the road - meaning we won't be balanced on H/A again until March 9 after we play in San Jose.

ADD: Dallas lost to Montreal but in OT. We are officially double digit points out of a playoff spot and even in the but we have games in hand scenario we are still out 5 because of the tiebreak. And let's be real, given how we've been picking up points were not getting 6 from 3.

 

[HighNote]

Still not sold on missing the playoffs entirely, I think we can still sneak in. The question is, is it even worth sneaking in? Would we rather sneak in and likely be knocked out in the first or second round? Or should we shoot for a top 5 pick? I know one thing, we simply cannot miss the playoffs and also not get a top 10 pick. I kind of hope me make up our mind soon so we have a good idea of what we want to do at the TDL.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

You're talking 28-14-3 off of a team that has 60% of its remaining games on the road and still can't hold NHL .500 under Berube, never mind get to NHL .500 overall [or even at home or lb the road]. We just played 8 of 13 at home in December and went 3-4-1 on the way to a 6-6-1 month overall. I want to be optimistic too, but the writing is on the wall.

A ton of teams land in this hole and never make it out or come close to making it out. I'm waiting for the argument in what's going to be different about this team, and mostly what I'm saying are hopes for changes that I don't think are coming. So, if that's the case then I really struggle to see how this team overcomes this deficit.

 

[carter333167]

Thanks to IB for maintaining the thread.

Imo, we have virtually zero chance of making the playoffs this year and should be actively taking measures to plan for future years.

 

[Girth Butcher]

Here’s what I’d like to see the Blues do. I will preface this by assuming Army will oversee this strategy because I’m afraid Stillman is too loyal to do the right thing and re-structure the Hockey Ops side. I think we too many captains trying determine direction, while the boat just goes in circles.

1). Trade your B* players now for long range prospects/picks. Get fair/best value and move on. That gives you the opportunity to bring up existing prospects** to get a taste of the NHL and see what you have.

2). Shop, but HOLD your A Player moves until TDL/Draft to get above-value packages to support your long-term plans. Decide if your upcoming UFA’s (Petro/Schenn) are re-signing or being moved.

Here’s where the plan has a fork in the road.

3). Stock the shelves (for a glorious rebuild/future) or get win-now assets. My guess it will be the latter option.

4). Find a coach that can develop/implement a structure/system.

5). Decide what your system is and build toward that. One vision, one voice.

*B players are fringe/pending UFA’s or prospects that aren’t within your strategy.

** existing prospects are Foley, Walman, Blais, Kyrou, Sanford,

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Too many regulation losses. When there is a night like last night, it needs to be an OT loss where it was close. But playing close and getting nothing, they’ve burned up all the nights they can afford that to happen.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Finally getting a chance to update. Last night gives us back the 2 points we probably should have had from the Rangers.

Games Remaining: 44
Home Games Remaining: 18 [current record at home: 10-11-2]
Road Games Remaining: 26 [current record on road: 6-7-2]
Last 10 Games: 6-4-0 [WWLWLWWLLW]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: 9 [not factoring in tie-breakers]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 93
Sample Record that would get us to target: 27-14-3

Next 4 Games:
1/5/19 - vs. NY Islanders [22-13-4, 9th in Eastern Conference; 8-2-0 in last 10]
1/7/19 - at Philadelphia [15-20-5, 14th in Eastern Conference; 3-6-1 in last 10]
1/8/19 - vs. Dallas [21-16-4, 3rd in Central Division; 5-4-1 in last 10]
1/10/19 - vs. Montreal [22-14-5, 2nd Wild Card in Eastern Conference; 7-3-0 in last 10]

Perhaps the other "good news" is that if we got tied with Anaheim on points, we've got a decent chance to hold the tiebreak since we both currently have 16 ROWs but they've done it winning 19 games in 41 played, while we've got 16 wins in 38 games played. Colorado is TBD [if we're tied on ROWs, then it goes to head-to-head and we need a single point against the Avs in the other 2 games remaining to clinch that]. Everyone else, ... well, I could do the combinations but let's focus on what's in the wild card window for the moment.

 

[HighNote]

The teams we are competing with for a playoff spot as of now are Arizona, Edmonton, Minnesota, Vancouver, Anaheim, and Colorado. Those 6 teams combine for a record of 22-31-7 in their last 10 games. The only team above .500 in that time frame is Vancouver.

We are getting a lot of help from these teams. Couple this with having anywhere from 2 to 6 games in hand on those teams and I have trouble giving up on this season just yet. In the West, I'd say LA and Chicago are the only teams that I can safely eliminate from having a reasonable chance at making the playoffs (that's a weird sentence I just typed).

 

[Ted Hoffman]

We're 6-4-0 in the last 10 and have made up 2 points, and that's pretty much because Colorado's gone 3-9-0 in the same time period. So yeah, we're getting a lot of help to make the climb up; we're just not taking much advantage of it even with all the home games we've got.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 43
Home Games Remaining: 17 [current record at home: 10-12-2]
Road Games Remaining: 26 [current record on road: 6-7-2]
Last 10 Games: 5-5-0 [WLWLWWLLWL]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: 9 [not factoring in tie-breakers]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92 [lowered from 93]
Sample Record that would get us to target: 27-14-2

Next 7 Games:
1/7/19 - at Philadelphia [15-20-6, 14th in Eastern Conference; 3-5-2 in last 10]
1/8/19 - vs. Dallas [22-16-4, 3rd in Central Division; 6-3-1 in last 10]
1/10/19 - vs. Montreal [22-15-5, 9th in Eastern Conference; 6-4-0 in last 10]
1/12/19 - at Dallas
1/14/19 - at Washington [24-12-4, T-1st in Metropolitan Division; 6-3-1 in last 10]
1/15/19 - at NY Islanders [23-13-4, 1st Wild Card in Eastern Conference; 8-2-0 in last 10]
1/17/19 - at Boston [24-14-4, 3rd in Northeast Division; 7-3-0 in last 10]

I've bumped the "points needed" down another point since Anaheim is currently on pace for 87.8 and Minnesota is on pace for 88.15, but no one else is on pace for even 85 at the moment. I'm inclined to move it yet another point down because there's a lot of points concentrated in the top-9 in the East, so don't be shocked if that scoots yet again near the All-Star break unless someone in the 8-12 group peels off a run to give me a reason to think 91 is too low.

So, it's "only" 27-14-2 needed - but that's still 106.7 point pace over 82 games. That's playing just better than Nashville season-to-date and right about with Calgary season-to-date.