Tracking the Blues’ Stanley Cup Quest—LOL

[Stupendous Yappi]

Fair enough Irish Blues. I work in a field that has its own vernacular, but many of the same words have laymen's meanings too. So, people (including colleagues) can use language sloppily when it should have a more precise definition. I empathize with your irritation.

I guess I was just conforming to the general usage around here, since I knew everyone would know what I meant. And I stand by the use of that phrase "regression to the mean" as an abstraction, not intended to mean a specific statistic, but rather as a general sense of "performing more in line with expected performance based on level of play". I guess maybe our language doesn't have enough colorful ways to say that.

I'm not one to cite advanced metrics much at all, although I find them interesting. I'm also not one who lazily dismisses them without bothering to try to understand what is being measured (or attempted to be measured).

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Our mods may want to take the "LOL" part out of the title of this thread.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Folks, we have a playoff chase. The current target team for a Wild Card spot: the Minnesota Wild.

Games Remaining: 38
Home Games Remaining: 15 [current record at home: 11-13-2]
Road Games Remaining: 23 [current record on road: 9-7-2]
Last 10 Games: 6-4-0 [WLLWLWLWWW]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: 4 [3 behind Minnesota + 1 for ROW tiebreak]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to target: 23-13-2

Next 5 Games [to the All-Star Break]
1/15 - at NY Islanders [25-15-4, 1st Wild Card in Eastern Conference; 8-2-0 in last 10]
1/17 - at Boston [26-15-4, 3rd in Northeast Division; 7-3-0 in last 10]
1/19 - vs. Ottawa [17-24-5, 15th in Eastern Conference; 2-7-1 in last 10]
1/21 - at Los Angeles [18-25-3, 15th in Western Conference; 5-5-0 in last 10]
1/23 - at Anaheim [19-18-9, 9th in Western Conference; 0-6-4 in last 10]

Minnesota's loss to Philadelphia moves us to 3 points behind with a game in hand; however, even if we win that game we'd still trail on the 1st tie-break [ROWs] so it's much more accurate at the moment to say we're 4 out. Yeah, Colorado beats Toronto but that doesn't matter for now: first things first, we have to finish running down the Wild.

 

[TruBlu]

Thanks for keeping this updated, IB. It's a nice measuring stick.

 

[MissouriMook]

Subject to change if we get blown out tomorrow night on the Island, but right now it feels more likely that we’ll finish third in the Central than bottom 10 in the league.

 

[CaliforniaBlues310]

We seem to be buzzing right now, and I don’t think it’s going to stop anytime soon. The confidence is clearly up, and I’ve got a gut feeling we’re going to go on a nice streak here. Let’s get revenge on the Isles tomorrow, Winnington and the Boys.

 

[EastonBlues22]

Our mods may want to take the "LOL" part out of the title of this thread.

I like it.

At the end of the season a lot of us are either going to be looking at this thread title and thinking we were fools for getting sucked in, or it will serve as a reminder that it's never over until it's over.

For the record, I still don't think the Blues are making it in, but at least it's a reasonable thought to entertain at the moment.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 37
Home Games Remaining: 15 [current record at home: 11-13-2]
Road Games Remaining: 22 [current record on road: 9-7-3]
Last 10 Games: 5-4-1 [LLWLWLWWWO]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: 5 [4 points behind Minnesota + 1 for trailing in ROWs]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to 92 points: 23-13-1

Next 4 Games [to the All-Star Break]
1/17 - at Boston [26-15-4, 3rd in Northeast Division; 7-3-0 in last 10]
1/19 - vs. Ottawa [17-24-5, 15th in Eastern Conference; 2-7-1 in last 10]
1/21 - at Los Angeles [18-25-3, 15th in Western Conference; 5-5-0 in last 10]
1/23 - at Anaheim [19-18-9, 9th in Western Conference; 0-6-4 in last 10]

Good news: Anaheim loses [again], Dallas loses again.
Bad news: Minnesota wins [good news - it was in the shootout, so they don't get another ROW], so we lose a point in the chase.

Still, we've got 5 points in 3 games so far. Now we need to handle the Bruins, then not piss things away against the Sens, Kings, and Ducks like we've been prone to do this season against the weaker side of the league.

 

[LetsGoBLUES91]

3 of the last 4 before the break are awful hockey teams. Need to get 6 at least at this point.

 

[Saint Loser]

There are 7 teams in a pack right now.

Anaheim sucks and will continue to drop down the standings, so that will make it a six-team pack.

Wild just won, but Ducks lost and the Stars are about to lose. Not a bad evening.

Blues 4 points back with a game in hand on Min.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Really 5 points back. If we're tied on points, they have more ROWs so they'd win the first tiebreak. [If we pull even on ROWs, then the 2nd tiebreak is points head-to-head; right now, the Wild lead that one 4-0 with 2 games to play, and an OTL for them would give them this tiebreak.]

 

[Saint Loser]

Thanks math guy.

 

[Mike Liut]

Catching Boston on a B2B and 3 in 4 tomorrow. That will help

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

Catching Boston on a B2B and 3 in 4 tomorrow. That will help

Again, have to get at least a point. And then have to take advantage of the struggling teams on the horizon and bag those points.

 

[BlueDream]

Catching Boston on a B2B and 3 in 4 tomorrow. That will help

And then freakin Ottawa at home after them.

These next 2 games are very winnable and the Blues need to take advantage.

 

[Mike Liut]

Sens up 4-1 on the Avs

 

[Falco Lombardi]

Forget the Wild Card.

Blues are 5 points out of 3rd with 2 games in hand

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Forget the Wild Card.

Blues are 5 points out of 3rd with 2 games in hand

Let's get into the wild card spot first. Then we can worry about getting into 3rd [and a playoff matchup with either Nashville or Winnipeg].

 

[Falco Lombardi]

Let's get into the wild card spot first. Then we can worry about getting into 3rd [and a playoff matchup with either Nashville or Winnipeg].

Train already left the station. Working on which Pacific team I want to see in the WCF

 

[Zamadoo]

Train already left the station. Working on which Pacific team I want to see in the WCF

 

[Ted Hoffman]

I'll update things tomorrow, but the main takeaway from tonight: no damage other than Anaheim getting 2 points to clog things up in front of us on top of EDM/VAN going to OT last night - which again, doesn't impact the 2WC spot but keeps everyone in the hunt.

 

[Stupendous Yappi]

It will be key to beat the bottom feeders at home to prove the Blues aren’t one.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

Games Remaining: 36
Home Games Remaining: 15 [current record at home: 11-13-2]
Road Games Remaining: 21 [current record on road: 9-8-3]
Last 10 Games: 5-4-1 [LWLWLWWWOL]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: 5 [4 points behind Minnesota + 1 for trailing in ROWs]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to 92 points: 23-12-1

Next 3 Games [to the All-Star Break]
1/19 - vs. Ottawa [18-24-5, 15th in Eastern Conference; 3-6-1 in last 10]
1/21 - at Los Angeles [19-25-4, 14th in Western Conference; 4-5-1 in last 10]
1/23 - at Anaheim [20-19-9, 10th in Western Conference; 1-5-4 in last 10]

There's 6 points sitting out on the table, ripe for being claimed. The Blues need at least 4 of them, and every one of them screams "potential trap game" given how we've done against the league's worst.

Saturday night will be more scoreboard watching. Minnesota is at home vs. Columbus, Edmonton hosts Calgary, Anaheim is at New Jersey, Vancouver hosts Buffalo.

 

[TruBlu]

Games Remaining: 36
Home Games Remaining: 15 [current record at home: 11-13-2]
Road Games Remaining: 21 [current record on road: 9-8-3]
Last 10 Games: 5-4-1 [LWLWLWWWOL]
Current Points Out of Playoff Spot: 5 [4 points behind Minnesota + 1 for trailing in ROWs]
Estimated Points Needed to get a Playoff Spot: 92
Sample Record that would get us to 92 points: 23-12-1

Next 3 Games [to the All-Star Break]
1/19 - vs. Ottawa [18-24-5, 15th in Eastern Conference; 3-6-1 in last 10]
1/21 - at Los Angeles [19-25-4, 14th in Western Conference; 4-5-1 in last 10]
1/23 - at Anaheim [20-19-9, 10th in Western Conference; 1-5-4 in last 10]

There's 6 points sitting out on the table, ripe for being claimed. The Blues need at least 4 of them, and every one of them screams "potential trap game" given how we've done against the league's worst.

Saturday night will be more scoreboard watching. Minnesota is at home vs. Columbus, Edmonton hosts Calgary, Anaheim is at New Jersey, Vancouver hosts Buffalo.

I want to thank you again for keeping this up to date, IB. I would draw people's attention to the sample record column, and how the loss number keeps decreasing after every loss. It is now down to 12. we can sustain 12 losses in 11 weeks to have a decent chance at making the playoffs. I know we have recently done it, after a half a season, but 5 points gained isn't in a vacuum. Other teams play games at the same time.

 

[Ted Hoffman]

The counter-argument to that is "well, it's based off getting to 92 points and no one is even close to that, so really we've got more losses we could take and still be OK."

And yes, that's true ... if everyone else in the West keeps crapping the bed. And yes, right now the best anyone is shooting for outside of the guaranteed top-3 is about 85 points. But as I've pointed out before, the midseason projection and the final standings aren't the same; in the past, the cut line has tended to move higher. And with everyone playing like crap, someone going 7-3-0 - a streak that's not unexpected by any means - suddenly puts them on pace for closer to 90.

Looking at it from the other side: if everyone else were on pace for 105 or so points, I wouldn't be projecting records saying we had to be at 102 or 103; I'd probably be pointing toward 97 or 98. That's because it's really likely that a couple someones would tail off, and extrapolating season-to-date to the end would end up being too high in some instances. In other words, don't follow where teams are pointed today; focus on where teams are more likely to land at the end of the season, adjust expectations slowly and not to every sudden movement.