Series Talk: Toronto vs Boston - Round #1 - PGDT

[Buds17]

I listened to yesterdays Prime Time Sports and they debated what's going to happen when the leafs lose the series, based on how badly they lose the series. The option of actually winning the series wasn't brought up by anyone on the roundtable.

That's how low expectations are going into this series.

The Leafs will finish lower in the standings than Boston. The Leafs lost the last playoff series against Boston. Not surprised by the underdog label being pinned on Toronto.

Realistically, the Leafs winning the series and then going on to face an unknown, albeit maybe not an unexpected, opponent also probably doesn't produce the same mileage of the hows, whys, etc. of another playoff loss.

There's still going to be a level of scrutiny - the expectations are obvious - involved when the time comes where the Leafs go into their playoff series as the favourite. Shouldn't be something to be fearful of.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Don’t get smoked in game 1 again. We did in 2013 and 2018. At least keep it close.

 

[Nineteen67]

TSN That's hockey also covered this yesterday by the numbers of the teams record in last 40 games (Jan 1st, 2019).

NHL record (best to worse) ... #1 TB, #2 Boston .............. #19th Toronto [Toronto has the worst record of all Eastern teams including the WC teams]
PP% ...................................................... #1 TB, #3 Boston ...............#12th Toronto
Goals Against/g ............................#3 TB, #4 Boston ...............#28th Toronto

So our Leafs have really struggled in the 2nd 1/2 of the season and not playing well, so they do not match up well on paper against the teams they will be facing.

They even took those stats and hypothetically carried the conversation forward suggesting that if the playoff format was different and teams got to pick their opponents based on their rankings and teams performance, that #1 TB and then others would want to play against the Leafs even more than the WC teams, because of how poorly the Leafs have been playing heading into the playoffs.

Here is he video:
Picking Your Opponent: Eastern Conference

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/picking-your-opponent-eastern-conference~1653621

I asked that same question the other day. If I was Tampa I’d want to play the Leafs in round one just because CBJ is a little more physical

 

[GardinerTheForward]

All this talk of us struggling won't matter for s*** once the puck drops Thursday, both teams have elite talent and have great teams. This'll be a close series that goes either way (hopefully we take it)

Imagine this board if we game 1 LOOOL all the takes will go from "we're f***** bruins in 4" to "wow this leaf team is so amazing we're so good"

I will be sticking with my Boston prediction until the series is over. I was alive in 2013 Zzzzz

 

[Leaf Lander]

we need to shut down marchand top line.

Use kadri brown and nylander there
It doesn't matter if they score just keep Boston's top line down and hope matehws Taveres. Johnson Marleau and Marner can score more goals then the rest of bostons offence

 

[leafsfan5]

I will be sticking with my Boston prediction until the series is over. I was alive in 2013 Zzzzz

Picking Boston is perfectly fine and logical, I have it as a tossup in game 7 with Boston taking it as well. But all the talk of us losing in 4 with everyone sucking and the leafs imploding is over the top, these are two elite teams.....

 

[PromisedLand]

Thanks to @willmma @gregreg @Hide N Seek Champion for giving me an idea as to when the Leafs playoffs will start so that I can plan my evening schedule accordingly

Couldn't reply to your posts in the other thread so just posting in this one. Thanks again!!!

 

[Trapper]

You kind of miss the point. Both us and Boston are essentially the same teams that took it to the third period of game seven last year, so why are people absolutely dismissing the chance that this goes further than four or five games? We didn't turn soft this season.

Not dismissing it could go 7 or we can win.
We were soft then and now.
As for last year the difference when we won the games wasn’t due to our heavy play, Andersen .930, .950, .970 save percentage in those games.

Heavy duty goaltending.
Which can be done and we win. However if we don’t get that or .912-.915 goaltending, I do t think we are strong enough at the other things as I pointed out.

 

[PromisedLand]

Its all about the goaltending of course.

2018 Playoffs:
Holtby: .922 (7.49 high danger shots against/60)
Fleury: .927 (8.76 high danger shots against/60)
Anderson : .896 (6.7 high danger shots against/60)

2017 Playoffs:
Murray: .937 (6.64 high danger shots against/60)
Rinne .930 (6.75 high danger shots against/60)
Anderson : .915 (5.36 high danger shots against/60)


....and there are actually people who think that defense has been the problem in the playoffs. Anderson was decent against Washington but last year man....

If Anderson plays to his ability and doesnt have yet another cold streak, we would have won the series last year and will win this year....and Anderson is capable of doing it.

goalie sv% is directly impacted by how the team plays defensively in front of their goalie. For example, Game 7 against Bruins last year (or first 2 games) you can fault Freddie as much as you want but the defense was abysmal they were giving away the puck like halloween candy; goalie can only do so much if the team does not take care of the puck and do not track the puck and play well without the puck

first game against boston last year though I will also blame the refs they handed that game to boston on a silver platter by not calling headshots on marner and then kadri ended up taking that retaliatory penalty on a nobody guy on boston

 

[SwaggySpungo]

Picking Boston is perfectly fine and logical, I have it as a tossup in game 7 with Boston taking it as well. But all the talk of us losing in 4 with everyone sucking and the leafs imploding is over the top, these are two elite teams.....

Completely disagree that the Leafs are elite. On paper, maybe. But in reality they are a mediocre bubble playoff team.

 

[TmlHockeyFan]

I might end up (definitely will) working some evenings during the game, are there any radio apps to listen to the Leafs game while working? I have WIFI at work but generally video streams work really really slow (and I'll end up killing data if I video stream).

 

[Suntouchable13]

I think we are a better team on paper going into game 1 than we were last year going into game 1. When you have JT-Matthews-Kadri down the middle, you're supposed to be damn near dominant. We have not seen that. Maybe we'll see it in the playoffs? It should create mismatches for Boston. They only have 1 Bergeron. Can not shut down all 3. I believe we are the better team if we play up to our potential.

 

[Mess]

This series will come down heavily on goaltending.

Boston vs TO this year.

Rask vs Toronto ........... 2.0 GAA & .938 sv%
Halak vs Toronto ......... 2.36 GAA & .932 sv%

Toronto vs BOS this year.

Andersen vs Boston .... 4.52 GAA & .882 sv%
Sparks vs Boston ............4.07 GAA & .862 sv%
Hutchinson ........................3.11 GAA & .897 sv%

Andersen despite the regular season numbers will need to outplay Rask for the Leafs to have any real chance to advance. Even if the Leafs have Rask's number then Halak #'s are not much worse head to head and I don't think Bruins would hesitate to make the switch.

 

[ToneDog]

Completely disagree that the Leafs are elite. On paper, maybe. But in reality they are a mediocre bubble playoff team.

Leafs have proven they are elite at contract negotiations. Time to walk the walk and prove it on the ice once and for all.

 

[Suntouchable13]

What is the mindset in the room? Do they expect to win? Or do they hope to win? Big difference. I am a fan, of course, but I expect to win this series. The team needs to grow up.

 

[NoTouchIcing]

I'm sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo hyped about this series.

Anyone know when the first game will be? Wednesday or Thursday?

Thursday. There is a concert at TD on Wednesday.
This works in our favour since we're used to shitty ice.

 

[RealisticLeaf55]

I have faith in the boys. It's unlikely we win. But what a solid way to stick it to HFBoards. Beat Boston in their own home.

 

[Zybalto]

goalie sv% is directly impacted by how the team plays defensively in front of their goalie. For example, Game 7 against Bruins last year (or first 2 games) you can fault Freddie as much as you want but the defense was abysmal they were giving away the puck like halloween candy; goalie can only do so much if the team does not take care of the puck and do not track the puck and play well without the puck

first game against boston last year though I will also blame the refs they handed that game to boston on a silver platter by not calling headshots on marner and then kadri ended up taking that retaliatory penalty on a nobody guy on boston

Tried to clarify that by showing high danger shots/60 after the save %.

Here are the types of goals the Leafs let in 5v5 that series:

High danger chance goals allowed/60: 1.18
Medium danger chance goals allowed/60: 1.22
Softies allowed/60: 0.72

Here are Bostons same 5v5 numbers from the series:

High danger chance goals allowed/60: 1.55
Medium danger chance goals allowed/60: 0.8
Softies allowed/60: 0

Bostons numbers make a whole lot of sense and Anderson's numbers look like a goalie who let in a crapload of bad goals.

 

[Goleafsgo95]

This young Leafs team has known all year that they won't be judged based upon the regular season; it's the playoffs that count and this might be part of the reason we've seen an underwhelming regular season. In last year's series vs. Boston they had a very poor start and basically handed Boston the first two games and then collapsed in their first game 7 as a group. This was a huge learning experience that they can now use to their advantage in the series ahead.

We need to remember how young this Leafs team is and the fact in the prior two playoffs they have pushed Washington and Boston into 6 and 7 game series' is a very encouraging time; there is a lot that points towards this year being the breakthrough.

Andersen is back on his game now going into the playoffs and is fully capable and likely even the favorite for winning the battle between the pipes in this series.

We added John Tavares at center and have formed one of the better lines in the league with Hyman-Tavares-Marner. Marner has established himself as one of the best wingers in the game, Tavares has been worthy every penny of his $11M, and Hyman has complimented them well to form a line that can hopefully diminish the impact Bergeron's line has on the series. This frees up Matthews to more favorable matchups which could be a gamechanger in the series.

Morgan Rielly has established himself as not only a true #1D but a Norris contender with a stellar season which I think we can fully expect to translate into the playoffs. Although we have had our fair share of struggles defensively, many of those struggles came with Gardiner and Dermott out of the lineup; both are back now, the team is fully healthy for the most part, and the players that are banged up have time to rest and prepare for the series. Jake Muzzin was a huge add and should be a huge difference maker in the series.

We have our young group which is more experienced now, we already had Marleau and Hainsey as veteran support and now added Tavares and Muzzin, so I feel like despite some of the worrisome moments shown during the regular season, when the chips are in this team should be much better equipped to put together a series win vs. Boston than last year's squad. The two rookies Kapanen and Johnsson had productive seasons and their playing styles should translate well into the playoffs.

The Leafs are the underdog which is probably a good thing for them, but make no mistake; if we get strong goaltending it will be very difficult for Boston to combat our depth of scoring, especially if Nylander finally gets it together for some playoff magic.

As much as the season is definitely unsettling, this team definitely has what it takes to get through Boston. If they gain some momentum with a victory like that you never know what can happen.

 

[PromisedLand]

Tried to clarify that by showing high danger shots/60 after the save %.

Here are the types of goals the Leafs let in 5v5 that series:

High danger chance goals allowed/60: 1.18
Medium danger chance goals allowed/60: 1.22
Softies allowed/60: 0.72

Here are Bostons same 5v5 numbers from the series:

High danger chance goals allowed/60: 1.55
Medium danger chance goals allowed/60: 0.8
Softies allowed/60: 0

Bostons numbers make a whole lot of sense and Anderson's numbers look like a goalie who let in a crapload of bad goals.

HDCF is not an accurate measure of true "high quality danger chance"

example: suppose an offensive player is in a "high danger area" if the shot is rushed because d-man closed the gap; or if the shot is deflected etc... it really isn't "high danger or high quality"

Point shots taken when the goalie is screened or the puck gets tipped from the area that is "not high danger" will not show up in that statistic.

 

[Leaf Lander]

Toronto's Team Roster
Johnsson Matthews. Nylander
Hyman. Tavares. Marner
Marleau Kadri. Kapanen
Ennis Gauthier. Brown
Moore

Rielly.Gardiner
Muzzin. Zaitsev
Dermott Hainsey
Holl Rosen

Anderson

Bostons Team Roster

Marchand -Bergeron- Pastrnak
DeBrusk -Krejci- Senyshyn
Johansson -Coyle- kuhlamn
Blidh -Frederic- Backes

Acciari S. Kuraly D. Heinen


Chara - McAvoy
Grzelcyk -Clifton
Moore- krug

Lauzon S. Kampfer Carlo

Rask


If we shut down the top line of Boston we can win this series quickly.

Guessed at Bostons lineup ...please advise to make it more accurate

 

[Mess]

We have seen Freddy Andersen get hot and become unbeatable and that is the one the Leafs will need now.

 

[PromisedLand]

this is what stamkos had to say pre game thursday

"There really isn't some magic switch come playoff time," said captain Steven Stamkos, "you want to be feeling good about yourself individually and you want to be feeling good collectively as a team heading into the playoffs. We just want to get our compete level up. Once that gets to our standard, that's when the skillset takes over and we look forward to doing that tonight."

The key word there is "compete level"; if leafs do not compete and rely on skill alone it ain't gonna work out. This is not EA Sport this is real hockey

 

[BertCorbeau]

Hope Muzzin lays out Marchand early in the first game.

 

[mikeyz]

That 5th TB goal on Rask just now!!! Yikes!!!!!