Series Talk: Toronto vs Boston - Round #1 - PGDT

[Mess]

Old Thread is full.

Here is the pre-game day thread before the series officially begins.

Continue here.

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[Warden of the North]

 

[A1LeafNation]

I think alot of seen this..excellent second pair.

 

[Zybalto]

Nice to see more Muzzin puff pieces, he deserves them. Here is a fair breakdown of Gards/Zaitsev vs. Muzzin/Zaitsev for this year though.

5v5 score and venue adjusted. Both pairings played high end second pairing usage.

Gards/Zaitsev (From Oct 17 to present as Gards was horribly out of shape to start the season and I want this to be an accurate representation of what he brings)

CF%: 51.83
SCF%: 54.53
HDCF%: 57.90
GF%: 53.37
OZS%: 45.55

Muzzin/Zaitsev:

CF%: 51.58
SCF%: 54.53 (not a typo, both pairings actually had identical scoring chance differential)
HDCF%: 54.52
GF%: 49.75 (More a reflection of the crap goaltending the last month than anything to worry about.)
OZS%: 38.10

Whats remarkable is just how close both pairings were when it comes to underlying numbers. Despite the first pairing having a high HDCF%, I think Muzzin/Zaitsev gets the slight nod because they were used even more defensively and still put up great numbers as well as solid point production. Both were really good overall though. Gonna be very interesting to see pairings in the playoffs.

 

[BertCorbeau]

My thoughts as we head into game 1:

- Going to have to be ready for a fast, physical start ... Boston will come out flying and try to intimidate the Leafs like they successfully did last year.

- On that note Andersen is going to have to be extremely sharp through the first half of game 1 .. An early goal would deflate the tires and give the B's momentum. Can't afford to go down 2 goals if they want to have a chance.

- Special teams are going to be essential. We know that the B's will get away with a lot, so PP opportunities will be limited making them all the more important. I hope they can rally a game plan.

- A healthy d-core would go a long way in this series. Rielly, Dermott, Muzzin, and Gardiner are a good enough foundation to get it done.

- The PK really needs to stay composed as well while not get caught standing around puck watching. Need to be quick, apply pressure, but do it efficiently and not chase the play. That top unit can eat them alive.

- Depth up front. Without a doubt the Leafs have the edge in talent up front. But they need to believe that, and step up now. Kadri's line needs to produce to alleviate pressure on the other lines to score. The 4th line needs to be able to generate some offensive zone time, while not getting pinned defensively, and generate some momentum.

- The stars need to be stars. Tavares and Marner look ready to go for a run. Hyman as well, I've like his game recently. But the Leafs need Matthews and Nylander to be dangerous to keep Boston on their heels. On top of that 2 of Marleau, Kapanen, and Johnsson need to bring their hustle, add some grit, and be willing to win those battles to support those guys.

- Final thoughts: ultimately I don't think the Leafs will get past Boston but I'd love to be wrong. There's something about the B's, mentally, that seems to get to the Leafs. I firmly believe for them to win, Andersen will have to be elite and steal the series. Crossing my fingers.

 

[BTP]

Key to this series is the split in Boston. Do not go down 2-0. Come back to Toronto with a split and I really like our chances.

 

[Zybalto]

Its all about the goaltending of course.

2018 Playoffs:
Holtby: .922 (7.49 high danger shots against/60)
Fleury: .927 (8.76 high danger shots against/60)
Anderson : .896 (6.7 high danger shots against/60)

2017 Playoffs:
Murray: .937 (6.64 high danger shots against/60)
Rinne .930 (6.75 high danger shots against/60)
Anderson : .915 (5.36 high danger shots against/60)


....and there are actually people who think that defense has been the problem in the playoffs. Anderson was decent against Washington but last year man....

If Anderson plays to his ability and doesnt have yet another cold streak, we would have won the series last year and will win this year....and Anderson is capable of doing it.

 

[justafan22]

Its all about the goaltending of course.

2018 Playoffs:
Holtby: .922 (7.49 high danger shots against/60)
Fleury: .927 (8.76 high danger shots against/60)
Anderson : .896 (6.7 high danger shots against/60)

2017 Playoffs:
Murray: .937 (6.64 high danger shots against/60)
Rinne .930 (6.75 high danger shots against/60)
Anderson : .915 (5.36 high danger shots against/60)


....and there are actually people who think that defense has been the problem in the playoffs. Anderson was decent against Washington but last year man....

If Anderson plays to his ability and doesnt have yet another cold streak, we would have won the series last year and will win this year....and Anderson is capable of doing it.

Andersen outplayed Holtby in the 2017 series though.

 

[justafan22]

Key to this series is the split in Boston. Do not go down 2-0. Come back to Toronto with a split and I really like our chances.

That's all that matters.

 

[Rob Brown]

Key to this series is the split in Boston. Do not go down 2-0. Come back to Toronto with a split and I really like our chances.

Agreed.

 

[Zybalto]

Andersen outplayed Holtby in the 2017 series though.

It was pretty much a wash between the two. They were both decent. Last years Holtby was all world though.

What's interesting about last year is that Holtby was brutal down the stretch and lost his starting job before the playoffs.

Goalies are indeed voodoo.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I listened to yesterdays Prime Time Sports and they debated what's going to happen when the leafs lose the series, based on how badly they lose the series. The option of actually winning the series wasn't brought up by anyone on the roundtable.

That's how low expectations are going into this series.

 

[willmma]

I listened to yesterdays Prime Time Sports and they debated what's going to happen when the leafs lose the series, based on how badly they lose the series. The option of actually winning the series wasn't brought up by anyone on the roundtable.

That's how low expectations are going into this series.

Yes that was disgusting.

They were talking as if we just lost the series 4-1 or something

Mccowan was listing possible coaches to hire.

 

[Mess]

I listened to yesterdays Prime Time Sports and they debated what's going to happen when the leafs lose the series, based on how badly they lose the series. The option of actually winning the series wasn't brought up by anyone on the roundtable.

That's how low expectations are going into this series.

TSN That's hockey also covered this yesterday by the numbers of the teams record in last 40 games (Jan 1st, 2019).

NHL record (best to worse) ... #1 TB, #2 Boston .............. #19th Toronto [Toronto has the worst record of all Eastern teams including the WC teams]
PP% ...................................................... #1 TB, #3 Boston ...............#12th Toronto
Goals Against/g ............................#3 TB, #4 Boston ...............#28th Toronto

So our Leafs have really struggled in the 2nd 1/2 of the season and not playing well, so they do not match up well on paper against the teams they will be facing.

They even took those stats and hypothetically carried the conversation forward suggesting that if the playoff format was different and teams got to pick their opponents based on their rankings and teams performance, that #1 TB and then others would want to play against the Leafs even more than the WC teams, because of how poorly the Leafs have been playing heading into the playoffs.

Here is he video:
Picking Your Opponent: Eastern Conference

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/picking-your-opponent-eastern-conference~1653621

 

[SwaggySpungo]

Does a single person actually believe the Leafs won't get starched in this series?

Leafs are a very mediocre team. They are only 3 points up on the 13th place team in the league (Columbus).

I see this series going 5 games, at most. Not only is Boston clearly the better team, they were built to shut down and dominate soft teams like the Leafs (which we've seen his season).

Nothing magical is going to happen in the playoffs. The Leafs will still lose 3 out of every 4 games vs. Boston, which is why I see this series going 5 games. Leafs could win 1 game, but that's it.

 

[BTP]

Does a single person actually believe the Leafs won't get starched in this series?

Leafs are a very mediocre team. They are only 3 points up on the 13th place team in the league (Columbus).

I see this series going 5 games, at most. Not only is Boston clearly the better team, they were built to shut down and dominate soft teams like the Leafs (which we've seen his season).

Nothing magical is going to happen in the playoffs. The Leafs will still lose 3 out of every 4 games vs. Boston, which is why I see this series going 5 games. Leafs could win 1 game, but that's it.

B's board is -----> that way.

They said that in 13, and last year, both went 7. its not going to be a wash, for either team. man up have some confidence.

 

[Zybalto]

Does a single person actually believe the Leafs won't get starched in this series?

Leafs are a very mediocre team. They are only 3 points up on the 13th place team in the league (Columbus).

I see this series going 5 games, at most. Not only is Boston clearly the better team, they were built to shut down and dominate soft teams like the Leafs (which we've seen his season).

Nothing magical is going to happen in the playoffs. The Leafs will still lose 3 out of every 4 games vs. Boston, which is why I see this series going 5 games. Leafs could win 1 game, but that's it.

I'll try to make you more optimistic.

Although Anderson had a rough March, Rask has been arguably worse.

Leafs PK has been amazing and the Leafs D was decent overall down the stretch.

The Leafs PP underlying numbers have been the best in the league the last couple of months, they just forgot how to finish for some reason. The amount of unreal saves, posts and missed empty nets has been insane. Scoring chances/60 on the powerplay is miles ahead of anyone else though.

Overall PDO down the stretch is way outta whack to where the team has been the last couple of years. If it reverts to even close to normal, the Leafs would be 5+ point higher at the end of the year.

Leafs puck moving D was pretty much crippled the last month+ which may have accounted for the lack of scoring. Actual defending numbers were as good or better than before Dermott/Gards went down (Muzzin was the best TDL pickup in a long time) Now with Gards/Dermott back, we actually get to see what this dcore can do.

and off course, this should give anyone hope:

Tavares instead of Pleks and Muzzin instead of Polak.

I still think home ice is a major factor and Boston in 7 would be my best guess right now but the Leaf winning wouldnt be a surprise. Was the closest series last year and probably the closest this year.

 

[Nithoniniel]

I find it weird that so many are pessimistic and saying that we don't have a chance, while pointing at things that were exactly the same last season when they needed a third period comeback in game seven to beat us.

We're the same type of team, Boston is built the same way. Our issues are the same, but to a lesser degree. So why expect such drastically different results?

 

[Trapper]

I find it weird that so many are pessimistic and saying that we don't have a chance, while pointing at things that were exactly the same last season when they needed a third period comeback in game seven to beat us.

We're the same type of team, Boston is built the same way. Our issues are the same, but to a lesser degree. So why expect such drastically different results?

Because in the playoffs the key to winning is doing the things you don’t like to do.
For us, it’s a lot of things we either don’t like, can’t do or are not good at sustaining.

If we want to run and gun and trade chances, sure, I’m on board.
If we have to find different ways to score, hard ways, get behind the D, put pressure + physical pressure on them, that remains to be seen.

Tampa plays the heavy hockey Babcock refers to. Let’s see who plays it for us.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Because in the playoffs the key to winning is doing the things you don’t like to do.
For us, it’s a lot of things we either don’t like, can’t do or are not good at sustaining.

If we want to run and gun and trade chances, sure, I’m on board.
If we have to find different ways to score, hard ways, get behind the D, put pressure + physical pressure on them, that remains to be seen.

Tampa plays the heavy hockey Babcock refers to. Let’s see who plays it for us.

You kind of miss the point. Both us and Boston are essentially the same teams that took it to the third period of game seven last year, so why are people absolutely dismissing the chance that this goes further than four or five games? We didn't turn soft this season.

 

[IPS]

I listened to yesterdays Prime Time Sports and they debated what's going to happen when the leafs lose the series, based on how badly they lose the series. The option of actually winning the series wasn't brought up by anyone on the roundtable.

That's how low expectations are going into this series.

Plays into our favor 100%

 

[Brock Radunske]

Would be nice to try the following pairings;

Gardiner - Rielly
Muzzin - Zaitsev
Dermott - Hainsey
Rosen

 

[lovemyleafs]

I'm sooooooooooooooooooooooooooo hyped about this series.

Anyone know when the first game will be? Wednesday or Thursday?

 

[leafsfan5]

All this talk of us struggling won't matter for s*** once the puck drops Thursday, both teams have elite talent and have great teams. This'll be a close series that goes either way (hopefully we take it)

Imagine this board if we game 1 LOOOL all the takes will go from "we're f***** bruins in 4" to "wow this leaf team is so amazing we're so good"

 

[WTFMAN99]

My head says Bruins 6 in. My heart says Leafs in 6.