Proposal: Toronto - Colorado

[93gilmour93]

Anything less Toronto slanted than let’s say kapanen for doughty is a trade that would “hurt the leafs more then(sic) help them”, if leafs fans on this site are to be believed.

Well with Toronto looking to improve the defensive play on the back end do you think this trade would be what Toronto needs?

 

[Cousin Eddie]

honest question - what makes Barrie better than Gardiner? If the answer is points per game, you've really gotta look into what constituted a "game" for each of them

Points, points per game, age, contract, talent.

One of the two defenseman you want to compare was the second best point per game defenseman in the NHL last year. The other is Jake Gardiner.

They are two offensive defenseman who are very below average in their own end. Barrie is better at offense.

 

[jonlin]

Well with Toronto looking to improve the defensive play on the back end do you think this trade would be what Toronto needs?

I`m starting to get speechless..- Toronto has the best centers, the best wingers and the best D. We dont even have to talk about goalies. Only trades the Leaf-fanbase would accept:

1.Carolina get:

Nylander

Leafs get:

Aho
TT
Svechnikov

2. Florida get:

Nylander
Gardiner
Kadri

Leafs get:

Barkov
Ekblad
Huberdeau
1st 2019

Maybe the other teams have to add because Leafs players are superior?

 

[Groo]

I`m starting to get speechless..- Toronto has the best centers, the best wingers and the best D. We dont even have to talk about goalies. Only trades the Leaf-fanbase would accept:

1.Carolina get:

Nylander

Leafs get:

Aho
TT
Svechnikov

2. Florida get:

Nylander
Gardiner
Kadri

Leafs get:

Barkov
Ekblad
Huberdeau
1st 2019

Maybe the other teams have to add because Leafs players are superior?

Did the Onion start a sports page ?

 

[The Kingslayer]

honest question - what makes Barrie better than Gardiner? If the answer is points per game, you've really gotta look into what constituted a "game" for each of them

Just watch them both play for more than 3-4 games. That will answer it for you.

 

[Patagonia]

honest question - what makes Barrie better than Gardiner? If the answer is points per game, you've really gotta look into what constituted a "game" for each of them

The obvious answer is PPG, Contract and talent level.

Consider the AVs play in the toughest division in hockey which accounts for approx. 1/3 of the games. They don't feast on 4 of 5 worst teams in the entire NHL: BUF, OTT, MTL and DET. The worst team in the AVs division is the Black Hawks that won 3 Cups this decade. You can't use TB or BOS, because they benefited from the weaker teams while the AVs gought against the Top 2 teams overall NSH and WPG.

So is Barrie more talented? It seems so, racking up points in a much more difficult environment. Leafs need to add or change the players being offered.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Points, points per game, age, contract, talent.

One of the two defenseman you want to compare was the second best point per game defenseman in the NHL last year. The other is Jake Gardiner.

They are two offensive defenseman who are very below average in their own end. Barrie is better at offense.

ok, so if it's points or points per game then you have to look at the context and realize how advantageous his usage is - Gardiner would have been about a 64pt/82game player with Barrie's PP time assuming he maintained the same (very maintainable) production per pp minute

age - it's a year, they're both in their late 20's...it's a difference I guess, but marginal

contract - with the Ryan Ellis signing, I don't think Gardiner gets more than Barrie and if so it's going to be within $500k/year and probably half of that. Gardiner currently makes almost $1.5M less than Barrie, so the break even on Gardiner costing more than Barrie is 3-6 years into the future...this actually could count against Barrie in real dollars for comparison's sake, but so so negligible a difference

talent - that's completely subjective, Gardiner is an extremely talented player, former mid 1st rounder and coming off his own 50pt season

so I think this comes back to looking at hockeydb, seeing how many points in how many games, and assuming that's an apples to apples comparison where it's far from that

Just watch them both play for more than 3-4 games. That will answer it for you.

The obvious answer is PPG, Contract and talent level.

Consider the AVs play in the toughest division in hockey which accounts for approx. 1/3 of the games. They don't feast on 4 of 5 worst teams in the entire NHL: BUF, OTT, MTL and DET. The worst team in the AVs division is the Black Hawks that won 3 Cups this decade. You can't use TB or BOS, because they benefited from the weaker teams while the AVs gought against the Top 2 teams overall NSH and WPG.

So is Barrie more talented? It seems so, racking up points in a much more difficult environment. Leafs need to add or change the players being offered.

see above

 

[Patagonia]

I`m starting to get speechless..- Toronto has the best centers, the best wingers and the best D. We dont even have to talk about goalies. Only trades the Leaf-fanbase would accept:

1.Carolina get:

Nylander

Leafs get:

Aho
TT
Svechnikov

2. Florida get:

Nylander
Gardiner
Kadri

Leafs get:

Barkov
Ekblad
Huberdeau
1st 2019

Maybe the other teams have to add because Leafs players are superior?

Keep going if you include the following players with the other packages: Lindholm, Kapanen, Hyman, Brown, Dermott and Carrick...you might obtain: McDavid, MacKinnon, Laine and Provorov.

Leafs move 6 player and only receive 4.

 

[Liferleafer]

I don’t think Barrie makes sense for you guys anyway, but still. This is bad proposal when you’re giving Gardiner and relative spare parts.

Even if you don’t like Barrie you should take this deal

I don't know, Barrie makes more than Gardiner....and they play the same style. I get Avs fans won't like the value...rightfully so, but with the added assets; i'd rather stick with the Devil you know.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

I dont think Barrie is that big an upgrade over Jake

 

[Super Hans]

1.Carolina get:

Nylander

Leafs get:

Aho
TT
Svechnikov

This one is pretty good for the Canes, but what are they sending to the Islanders and Red Wings to acquire Aho and Svechnikov?

 

[Notsince67]

Points, points per game, age, contract, talent.

One of the two defenseman you want to compare was the second best point per game defenseman in the NHL last year. The other is Jake Gardiner.

They are two offensive defenseman who are very below average in their own end. Barrie is better at offense.

Have to disagree here. Fact is that Gardiner is completely under-rated when it comes to zone denial. In this he is better than Rielly. I know he had some flubs in 2 on 1 situations during the playoffs but the underlying metrics point to him being extremely talented in this regard.
Beyond that, when Gardiner is on the ice, the team generates a crap load of offense. Babcock used him in EV constantly and he was almost always strapped to Matthews. Despite the fact that Barrie's offensive zone starts were 62.4% compared to Gardiner at 49.9%, Barrie only managed less than 5 shot attempts plus estimated passes that resulted in shot attempts/60 than gardiner. All of this while facing higher QoC.
I like Barrie but the jury is out on whether he could produce at a higher level on the Leafs as Gardiner. That being said, he is a RHD which is in higher demand.
As far as the disparaging remarks I've read about Johnsson, I can only say that he is a player that any team would love if he was given higher usage. The guy can skate faster than most in the league and he has great hands. He is no throw in in my mind because I think he has strong top 6 potential. He ripped up the AHL last year and is just too good for that league but he has challenges fighting for ice time with the Leafs strong depth. I suspect this year he will challenge for at least third line usage on a very stacked team. There are a lot of forwards that I would be happier to part with.

 

[Patagonia]

I don't know, Barrie makes more than Gardiner....and they play the same style. I get Avs fans won't like the value...rightfully so, but with the added assets; i'd rather stick with the Devil you know.

Barrie is a substantial upgrade.

However, this deal makes little sense for the Leaf even though I support the AVs. Leafs have enough problems with the Cap and trying to resign Nylander. Adding Matthews and Marner next season, with Barrie year after. This is a salary nightmare that losing Gardiner and his salary to UFA might be a blessing.

Leafs should not be accepting more salary when they're struggling to resign their players. maybe if they're pursuing a RHD cost controlled prospect ie. Makar or Timmins this would make sense, but Barrie or EJ is not reasonable financially.

 

[Notsince67]

Well with Toronto looking to improve the defensive play on the back end do you think this trade would be what Toronto needs?

The leafs system is about transition and zone exits. Barrie would help plug a big gap on the right side but it would come at the expense of losing a very good player on the left

 

[Cousin Eddie]

ok, so if it's points or points per game then you have to look at the context and realize how advantageous his usage is - Gardiner would have been about a 64pt/82game player with Barrie's PP time assuming he maintained the same (very maintainable) production per pp minute

age - it's a year, they're both in their late 20's...it's a difference I guess, but marginal

contract - with the Ryan Ellis signing, I don't think Gardiner gets more than Barrie and if so it's going to be within $500k/year and probably half of that. Gardiner currently makes almost $1.5M less than Barrie, so the break even on Gardiner costing more than Barrie is 3-6 years into the future...this actually could count against Barrie in real dollars for comparison's sake, but so so negligible a difference

talent - that's completely subjective, Gardiner is an extremely talented player, former mid 1st rounder and coming off his own 50pt season

so I think this comes back to looking at hockeydb, seeing how many points in how many games, and assuming that's an apples to apples comparison where it's far from that



see above

Tyson Barrie played 253 minutes of pp time last year. Had Jake Gardiner played that many minutes and his scoring pace continued in the same path as it did all season (you called it “very maintainable” but he scored at a a rate of 5.31p/60 on the pp last year even though his career pp p/60 prior to last year was 3.2p/60) he would have scored an additional 7 power play points. Add that to his total and you can give him credit for a 59 point season in his 82 games.

Tyson Barrie scored at a 69 point pace per 82 games. 15 percent higher production than Gardiner.

 

[Liferleafer]

Barrie is a substantial upgrade.

However, this deal makes little sense for the Leaf even though I support the AVs. Leafs have enough problems with the Cap and trying to resign Nylander. Adding Matthews and Marner next season, with Barrie year after. This is a salary nightmare that losing Gardiner and his salary to UFA might be a blessing.

Leafs should not be accepting more salary when they're struggling to resign their players. maybe if they're pursuing a RHD cost controlled prospect ie. Makar or Timmins this would make sense, but Barrie or EJ is not reasonable financially.

Agree with you. For EJ, i think the Leafs would try to make it work.

 

[pmwlker]

Nylander makes more sense than Gardiner plus from a Colorado standpoint. Leaf fans may not like it but its closer than this proposal easily if you consider the Avs needs in the equation.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Tyson Barrie played 253 minutes of pp time last year. Had Jake Gardiner played that many minutes and his scoring pace continued in the same path as it did all season (you called it “very maintainable” but he scored at a a rate of 5.31p/60 on the pp last year even though his career pp p/60 prior to last year was 3.2p/60) he would have scored an additional 7 power play points. Add that to his total and you can give him credit for a 59 point season in his 82 games.

Tyson Barrie scored at a 69 point pace per 82 games. 15 percent higher production than Gardiner.

sorry, missed something in my calculation, right you are for the pace.

Gardiner's PP minutes in his career have been spent with far less talented players than he plays with now, I think you'll see the same type of effect when you compare Barrie's 3.96p/60 on the pp before last year with his 7.11p/60 on the pp last year, right?

so, I see two guys, one of which I agree is a bit better pp player and one of which is a better 5v5 player. Similar age, likely similar contract, both very talented offensively. I don't see the gap that you guys do

 

[Cousin Eddie]

sorry, missed something in my calculation, right you are for the pace.

Gardiner's PP minutes in his career have been spent with far less talented players than he plays with now, I think you'll see the same type of effect when you compare Barrie's 3.96p/60 on the pp before last year with his 7.11p/60 on the pp last year, right?

so, I see two guys, one of which I agree is a bit better pp player and one of which is a better 5v5 player. Similar age, likely similar contract, both very talented offensively. I don't see the gap that you guys do

Do you really think Gardiner is better than Barrie 5v5?

If we use the same minute calculation you used to try and credit Gardiner for PP points on Barrie with 5v5 points, Barrie would have scored 29 5v5 points and Gardiner had 31. Barrie would have had 22 primary 5v5 points compared to Gardiner’s 19.

I think last year they were pretty even at 5v5 but then when you look at career numbers Barrie is definitely better. Gardiner has 118 points 5v5. 76 primary points. If we use your mathematical equation again and assume Barrie played as many minutes as Gardiner and his pace continued Barrie would have 142 points. 105 of those are primary points.

The argument of using those minutes evenly tend to favor Barrie a lot more than you thought when you initially brought it up.

Like I said, they’re two offensive defenseman who are pretty poor defensively. Based on what they’re good at, Barrie is better.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Do you really think Gardiner is better than Barrie 5v5?

If we use the same minute calculation you used to try and credit Gardiner for PP points on Barrie with 5v5 points, Barrie would have scored 29 5v5 points and Gardiner had 31. Barrie would have had 22 primary 5v5 points compared to Gardiner’s 19.

I think last year they were pretty even at 5v5 but then when you look at career numbers Barrie is definitely better. Gardiner has 118 points 5v5. 76 primary points. If we use your mathematical equation again and assume Barrie played as many minutes as Gardiner and his pace continued Barrie would have 142 points. 105 of those are primary points.

The argument of using those minutes evenly tend to favor Barrie a lot more than you thought when you initially brought it up.

Like I said, they’re two offensive defenseman who are pretty poor defensively. Based on what they’re good at, Barrie is better.

Gardiner has been a considerably better possession player, I put more stock into that for defensemen 5v5 than points. I think Gardiner gets considered to be a poor defensive player where the numbers paint quite a different picture for him, his mistakes are often memorable but he does a lot of things very well that get overlooked (except for in the results across the possession metric spectrum). Also keep in mind that Gardiner has really only found his offensive game consistently in the past 2 years, so I think you'll get a false read if you go back to some really bad Leaf teams under multiple coaches running different systems (or no system). I would say that a GM making an evaluation would at the very least place a higher weighting on the more recent performance for both players

that's a fair point though, I didn't compare their 5v5 minutes and Gardiner does play more 5v5

I do think in a vacuum that Barrie is a better player as well, I just don't get the outrage of a Barrie-for-Gardiner based swap with pluses on the Gardiner side.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

Gardiner has been a considerably better possession player, I put more stock into that for defensemen 5v5 than points. I think Gardiner gets considered to be a poor defensive player where the numbers paint quite a different picture for him, his mistakes are often memorable but he does a lot of things very well that get overlooked (except for in the results across the possession metric spectrum). Also keep in mind that Gardiner has really only found his offensive game consistently in the past 2 years, so I think you'll get a false read if you go back to some really bad Leaf teams under multiple coaches running different systems (or no system). I would say that a GM making an evaluation would at the very least place a higher weighting on the more recent performance for both players

that's a fair point though, I didn't compare their 5v5 minutes and Gardiner does play more 5v5

I do think in a vacuum that Barrie is a better player as well, I just don't get the outrage of a Barrie-for-Gardiner based swap with pluses on the Gardiner side.

I mean Barrie had a better relative corsi for last year.

But yeah maybe Gardiner is better defensively than I give him credit for. I like stats. I use stats a lot. But I'm not on the wagon of using possession stats to talk about defensive play. It just shows the impact a player tends to have on where the game is played. Barrie is often a hot mess defensively but usually does well possession wise relative to his team simply because his talent forces the puck to the other end of the ice. That doesn't mean he's good defensively and I'll never understand the argument for that.

I like using my eyes to judge a player's defensive game. I think I'm a bit of a hockey nut and watch more than most. Even though I'm not a fan I would guess I still watch 20 or so full Leaf's games a year which I think is pretty good. However, since they aren't my team it's not like I pick apart guy's every single move. The plays that stand out to me are the real impactful ones and because of Gardiner's reaaaal memorable ones it's quite possible I think less of him defensively than I probably should. But when I watch my own team I notice every single play made and they all stick in my mind.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I mean Barrie had a better relative corsi for last year.

But yeah maybe Gardiner is better defensively than I give him credit for. I like stats. I use stats a lot. But I'm not on the wagon of using possession stats to talk about defensive play. It just shows the impact a player tends to have on where the game is played. Barrie is often a hot mess defensively but usually does well possession wise relative to his team simply because his talent forces the puck to the other end of the ice. That doesn't mean he's good defensively and I'll never understand the argument for that.

I like using my eyes to judge a player's defensive game. I think I'm a bit of a hockey nut and watch more than most. Even though I'm not a fan I would guess I still watch 20 or so full Leaf's games a year which I think is pretty good. However, since they aren't my team it's not like I pick apart guy's every single move. The plays that stand out to me are the real impactful ones and because of Gardiner's reaaaal memorable ones it's quite possible I think less of him defensively than I probably should. But when I watch my own team I notice every single play made and they all stick in my mind.

Barrie's corsi relative was better in a worse possession environment which is usually a little easier to positively affect, and Gardiner had a down year for his relatives which were still pretty good, and I suspect he won't have the same highs as earlier in his career because the team around him is better so it will be really hard to be a huge help to his linemates' possession like it was when the Leafs were terrible

I like to look at the 5v5 game as a whole rather than offensive and defensive, the best way to be good defensively is to never play in your own end which Gardiner has always had a very good measurable impact on for his team. He's a better clean-entry inhibitor and defensive zone steal guy than he gets credit for as well, he just makes too many high-risk/low-reward plays in his own end that get remembered when they go south. If Gardiner played safe in his own end, he's a #1D, and it's sort of crazy that he hasn't figured that out

Gardiner is a guy that the eye test misleads people on, when he feeds a pass out of his own corner across the front of his net and it gets picked that it causes a lot of face-palms and it sticks in your head. He does that kind of thing too often, but then he'll go on a run of a couple of months of #1D type play like January-March last year. He's a bit of an enigma, but a very good player as a whole....high average, large standard deviation type thing

 

[Saekk]

These threads are great for filling your ignore list.

"I'd rather have Gardider than Barrie."

Jesus f***ing christ the dome is tight in there.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Leafs are in good hands with the defence moving forward.

Rielly Zaitsev
Dermott Liljegren
Sandin Ozhiganov
Borgman Carrick
Rosen Holl

 

[RoyIsALegend]

Friedman just mentioned in his latest podcast I believe, that Colorado are still listening to offers on Tyson Barrie who has two years left on a deal that carries an AAV of $5.5M. Friedman also said a while ago that the Leafs and Avs almost had a trade worked out that would have seen O'Reilly go to Toronto and Gardiner to the Avs, probably with other moving parts. If Jake Gardiner were willing to talk extension with Colorado (I think he would because it brings him closer to his home of Minnetonka, Minnesota), I could see something working out, especially considering the Avs have Erik Johnson locked up and guys like Connor Timmins and Cale Makar (both RH defensemen) coming down the pipeline.

To Toronto:
D - Tyson Barrie

To Colorado:
D - Jake Gardiner
LW - Andreas Johnsson
3rd Round Pick in 2020

Edit: Swapped Bracco with Andreas Johnsson

Thoughts?

Absolutely terrible.