Confirmed with Link: TOR Promotes John Lilley to Director of Amateur Scouting

hockeywiz542

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What's the deal with JD Greenway? I believe I read that he had a rough year? All reports prior to the year suggested he could skate, move the puck and shoot on top of being big.
Badgers men's hockey: After absence, JD Greenway 'ready for moving forward'
Greenway declined to elaborate on the details, while Granato said it was neither a team nor academic suspension. Greenway's name wasn't found in Madison Police reports, according to a spokesperson.

"He just had some things off the ice, academically and some other things that we wanted to make sure were in a place where he could come back and be part of our team," Granato said. "It was a thing between him and I."

Said Greenway: "I'd say it's a learning curve. There's some personal stuff that I wasn't taking care of off the ice that translated over to on the ice. Now, getting past that, I think I'm just nothing but ready for moving forward."
 
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Myopic

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I don't know who that is but if Dubas & Co. think he's worth it, so do I. I have full faith in this management until they give me a reason not to.
Don't you think the promotion of Morrison was a bit of a head-scratcher?
 

Cor

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Don't you think the promotion of Morrison was a bit of a head-scratcher?

Morrison's largely in that role to show Wes Clark the ropes. The expectation is that Wes Clark will move into the Director of Player Personnel role in a couple seasons.

Morrison's track record has been good. It took a dip during the Burke years, but even in the JFJ years, Morrison drafted some good players for us, even if JFJ kept trading picks or the good prospects Morrison drafted.

In 2006 & 2007, under JFJ, Dave Morrison drafted 13 players. 8 of them became NHL players, and then Didomenico recently played a season as well. Of those 13 selections, just 2 of them were in the top 60. JFJ was fired in January of 2008, Fletcher took over, and in the 2008 draft, Morrison drafted another 8 players, 4 of which played NHL games.

Under JFJ and Cliff Fletcher, Morrison drafted 21 players, 13 of which ended up playing NHL games. 11 of them are likely to hit the 200 game marker.

Burke took over, and our drafting TANKED. From 2009 to 2012, the Leafs drafted 29 players. Just 4 of those players have or will play 100+ games. Morgan Rielly, Nazem Kadri, Greg McKegg, and Connor Brown. Leivo currently sits at 57, and Sparks sits at 17, so the potential of 6 players.

Brian Burke was fired in January of 2013. Dave Nonis took over, and Morrison ran the 2013 and 2014 drafts, before Mark Hunter was hired in October of 2014. Morrison drafted 11 players in those two drafts, yielding the Leafs 4 NHL or potential NHL players. William Nylander, Pierre Engvall, Frederik Gauthier, & Andreas Johnsson. Antoine Bibeau and Rinat Valiev also appeared in the NHL.

TL;DR: The Leafs drafting under Dave Morrison has been excellent, with the exception to when Brian Burke was GM and was hands on in regards to the drafting. In fact, you could argue that Dave Morrison's track record, is greater than what Mark Hunter did in his 3 drafts.
 

Menzinger

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Don't you think the promotion of Morrison was a bit of a head-scratcher?

He’s a good “company man”, managed to convince Shanahan/Hunter he was worth keeping earlier. Suspect he’s very willing to adapt his scouting style to the preferences of his boss pretty easily.
 
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meefer

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Did have a rough year. Apparently there are some personal issues there. The issue with Greenway being in the NCAA, is there is practically no time for the Leafs development staff to work with him. Apparently that is why Jeremy Bracco left to go to the OHL, is so he could make regular trips to Toronto to work with the staff, watch the Leafs/Marlies practices etc

Greenway is now going to the USHL, which isn't... great. The CHL would have been a better option. In the USHL, he's a 6'4 20 year old going up against primarily 16 an 17 year olds. Any 18-20 year olds in that league... let's just say it's usually not a great sign that they are there.

Which is a shame, because out of the big d-man Hunter drafted, Greenway seems to have had the best puck and skating skills, though Fedor Gordeev has developed extremely well in that regard. OHL scouts were buzzing about Gordeev all year apparently.

Not directed towards you or anyone for that matter, but the tendency is to look at the player before the person. Greenway, regardless of where he develops, is first a person and then an asset. The Leafs, imo, have made a wonderful change in determining that a person's well being is as, if not moreso, important to their development curve. Should Greenway find his 'balance' in the USHL then his forward potential improves and I'm all for it.
 

Menzinger

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Was formerly out Director of US Scouting.

Our last 3 picks from the U.S have been Joseph Woll (3), J.D Greenway (3), and Jeremy Bracco (2).

Not a lot of high picks to work with too.

I liked all three of those selections (though obviously Greenway looks like he’s heading toward bust territory, though that seems to be more based on personal life stuff rather than lacking skill).

Would be curious to know what other prospects he tried to push the Leafs towards drafting
 

93LEAFS

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Morrison's largely in that role to show Wes Clark the ropes. The expectation is that Wes Clark will move into the Director of Player Personnel role in a couple seasons.

Morrison's track record has been good. It took a dip during the Burke years, but even in the JFJ years, Morrison drafted some good players for us, even if JFJ kept trading picks or the good prospects Morrison drafted.

In 2006 & 2007, under JFJ, Dave Morrison drafted 13 players. 8 of them became NHL players, and then Didomenico recently played a season as well. Of those 13 selections, just 2 of them were in the top 60. JFJ was fired in January of 2008, Fletcher took over, and in the 2008 draft, Morrison drafted another 8 players, 4 of which played NHL games.

Under JFJ and Cliff Fletcher, Morrison drafted 21 players, 13 of which ended up playing NHL games. 11 of them are likely to hit the 200 game marker.

Burke took over, and our drafting TANKED. From 2009 to 2012, the Leafs drafted 29 players. Just 4 of those players have or will play 100+ games. Morgan Rielly, Nazem Kadri, Greg McKegg, and Connor Brown. Leivo currently sits at 57, and Sparks sits at 17, so the potential of 6 players.

Brian Burke was fired in January of 2013. Dave Nonis took over, and Morrison ran the 2013 and 2014 drafts, before Mark Hunter was hired in October of 2014. Morrison drafted 11 players in those two drafts, yielding the Leafs 4 NHL or potential NHL players. William Nylander, Pierre Engvall, Frederik Gauthier, & Andreas Johnsson. Antoine Bibeau and Rinat Valiev also appeared in the NHL.

TL;DR: The Leafs drafting under Dave Morrison has been excellent, with the exception to when Brian Burke was GM and was hands on in regards to the drafting. In fact, you could argue that Dave Morrison's track record, is greater than what Mark Hunter did in his 3 drafts.
He drafted a bottom pairing defender with a 5th overall pick, prior to the hire of Burke. The only effective players he got were either from Sweden or at the very top of the draft with the exception of Brown. I'd say you are stretching it if you are trying to use Gauthier, and just playing NHL games as a success.

As for against Hunter. I'd say we have to wait to see that one out. If we are going to discount the Matthews and Marner selections, we simply haven't had enough time to judge Hunters picks. Dermott and Liljegren become legit top 4 defenders, and Grundstrom a legit top 9 Winger, its a better legacy than what Morrison did.
 

BillyD

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Basically your amateur scouting group consists of Dave Morrison, Wes Clark and John Lilley as basically the head parts of the group. Followed by Jim Paliafito (Evaluation), Lindsay Hofford (East), Tim Speltz (West), Ari Vuori (EU) and then a bunch of amateur scouts. We'll need to replace Lilley and his US spot. I expect the Leafs to add to their Russian scouting side as well.

If Hunter gets a NHL job in the future, I fully expect Hofford to follow him soon after.

In a golf cart?
 
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sxvnert

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Nothing more than Dubas closing up shop down south and focusing his efforts in canada and overseas. Gets along well with Lilley bc hes a gud pro.
 
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FreeBird

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Did have a rough year. Apparently there are some personal issues there. The issue with Greenway being in the NCAA, is there is practically no time for the Leafs development staff to work with him. Apparently that is why Jeremy Bracco left to go to the OHL, is so he could make regular trips to Toronto to work with the staff, watch the Leafs/Marlies practices etc

Greenway is now going to the USHL, which isn't... great. The CHL would have been a better option. In the USHL, he's a 6'4 20 year old going up against primarily 16 an 17 year olds. Any 18-20 year olds in that league... let's just say it's usually not a great sign that they are there.

Which is a shame, because out of the big d-man Hunter drafted, Greenway seems to have had the best puck and skating skills, though Fedor Gordeev has developed extremely well in that regard. OHL scouts were buzzing about Gordeev all year apparently.

His skating and lateral movement were very poor in last years under 20 played in Plymouth Mich. He was not invited but an injury allowed him to be added to the US roster.
 

crump

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I understand that those late picks from US university and development program are long shots just like any late pick is, but when you have a track record like our European scouts have you have to reward that and start picking from their recommendations in the later rounds exclusively. Most of those late US college picks seem like a throw away pick to me.
 

DarkKnight

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Big big job, hope he's up for it. As said earlier, Dubas has done a good job so far, so I'll take it he knows what he's doing.
 

Prominence

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If Bergman was 20 years younger he should have this position.

On a more serious note, I don’t think his record is that good. Still no impact players. I like his thinking and approach for 2016, but before that the USA scouting has been meh for the leafs. I’m also surprised leafs don’t have a Finnish amateur scout. More talent will be coming from Finland.
 

93LEAFS

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If Bergman was 20 years younger he should have this position.

On a more serious note, I don’t think his record is that good. Still no impact players. I like his thinking and approach for 2016, but before that the USA scouting has been meh for the leafs. I’m also surprised leafs don’t have a Finnish amateur scout. More talent will be coming from Finland.
Our director of European scouting is Finnish, its Ari Vuori. Plus, any Swedish scout can easily scout Finland, and any Finnish scout can easily scout Finland. It is like asking an Ontario based scout to go to the QMJHL or the USHL for a weekend or two occasionally.

What is more surprising at the moment is we don't have a single Russian based scout after letting Ladygin and Namestnikov go. Russia is one of the few areas where rich teams can exploit an area some teams are too cheap or don't have the connections to scout. Russia is by far the hardest area to scout, and its a place North Americans or Western Europeans don't like scouting (for many different reasons, most notably, the reliance on Russian airlines to places outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, and the inability to drive places due to length, and unsafe areas).

Finally, I'll add two things about Bergman. One, it is very rare to base your head of scouting out of Europe, it is way too hard for them to oversee where a majority of your scouting operations are based, which is in the central and eastern part of the North America. To the best of my knowledge the only head scout based out of Europe is Columbus's Ville Siren. Secondly, being a good scout doesn't necessarily make you a good director of scouting. Similar to how the best salesman, isn't always the best person at managing other salespeople. It is as much a management and collaborative position, as it is telling people who are the best players. Creating a draft board is about weighting other peoples opinions and working from there.
 

Man Bear Pig

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If Bergman was 20 years younger he should have this position.

On a more serious note, I don’t think his record is that good. Still no impact players. I like his thinking and approach for 2016, but before that the USA scouting has been meh for the leafs. I’m also surprised leafs don’t have a Finnish amateur scout. More talent will be coming from Finland.
IIRC posters around here have said that Bergman didnt have any interest in being the head of scouting or coming to North America in general. That would make sense too, he's overqualified to simply be a Scout.
 

SeaOfBlue

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Our director of European scouting is Finnish, its Ari Vuori. Plus, any Swedish scout can easily scout Finland, and any Finnish scout can easily scout Finland. It is like asking an Ontario based scout to go to the QMJHL or the USHL for a weekend or two occasionally.

What is more surprising at the moment is we don't have a single Russian based scout after letting Ladygin and Namestnikov go. Russia is one of the few areas where rich teams can exploit an area some teams are too cheap or don't have the connections to scout. Russia is by far the hardest area to scout, and its a place North Americans or Western Europeans don't like scouting (for many different reasons, most notably, the reliance on Russian airlines to places outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, and the inability to drive places due to length, and unsafe areas).

Finally, I'll add two things about Bergman. One, it is very rare to base your head of scouting out of Europe, it is way too hard for them to oversee where a majority of your scouting operations are based, which is in the central and eastern part of the North America. To the best of my knowledge the only head scout based out of Europe is Columbus's Ville Siren. Secondly, being a good scout doesn't necessarily make you a good director of scouting. Similar to how the best salesman, isn't always the best person at managing other salespeople. It is as much a management and collaborative position, as it is telling people who are the best players. Creating a draft board is about weighting other peoples opinions and working from there.

I believe Namestnikov left because of Hunter. Purely speculation, but with reasonable justification. Ladygin is pure speculation, but I think that could have just been because he was not performing at the standards they wanted. He never really did anything before Hunter, and it seems like a lot of the Russian players after Hunter came in were because of Namestnikov and not him.
 

93LEAFS

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I believe Namestnikov left because of Hunter. Purely speculation, but with reasonable justification. Ladygin is pure speculation, but I think that could have just been because he was not performing at the standards they wanted. He never really did anything before Hunter, and it seems like a lot of the Russian players after Hunter came in were because of Namestnikov and not him.
He most likely did. Namestnikov and Mark are close.

My main point was that hopefully, we refill our Russian scouting ranks before this coming season. Russia is one of the easier places we can exploit how much you can spend on scouting, as it is a very expensive and tough place to scout, which is prohibitive to a lot of NHL teams. Any area that produces that many NHLers, and is ignored by other teams, is worth investing heavily in, at least in regards to having people on the ground scouting. Not saying we should invest heavily in picks not worth it.
 

SeaOfBlue

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I understand that those late picks from US university and development program are long shots just like any late pick is, but when you have a track record like our European scouts have you have to reward that and start picking from their recommendations in the later rounds exclusively. Most of those late US college picks seem like a throw away pick to me.

My thoughts:
1) I do not think there is a problem with drafting US players late, but I think the Leafs are just doing a better job at finding gems in Europe than they are the US. I look at a lot of the Americans available in later rounds and do not see the same sort of upside I see with Europeans. A lot of them seem like the types of guys you can find every year for free as NCAA FA's. A lot of bottom 6 upside and maybe safer type picks at best. Maybe guys you bring in on AHL deals and watch them grow into an ELC. Europeans are usually riskier but higher upside picks in those rounds.
2) In the NCAA, you could play against older, more mature guys than you do in the CHL, but there usually is not a ton of elite high end talent. Most of those guys leave after one year. In the CHL, you may play against younger guys but typically they are of higher quality than most of the guys you find in the NCAA. Then when you look at Europe, you see the better young guys playing against pros right away. So they get better than what you would get in the NCAA, and other than the non-transfer agreement countries (which have the added bonus of indefinite control), you can bring them over on ATO's whenever you want to get a closer look before just sending them back. So it's like the NCAA is a mix between the two worlds but not really the best at anything, so why go that route?
3) The NCAA system is broken for high end talent. I do not think guys should get paid, per say, but I do think guys who are the best in the field should be able to get endorsements or get benefits from a team that drafts them without having to lose their scholarship. It's hard to get them into camp, and it's not like some Europeans who are hard to get into camp because their European team is running one at the same time. The NCAA teams are just so hard on this "can't be a pro" thing that guys have to pay their own way, and some of them can not afford to do that (at least not every year).

I think you need three scouts to cover the United States:
1) A Boston/New England Scout which can cover the NCAA teams and minor teams out there. A lot of talent in the US comes from New England Prep schools if they do not go the USDP route (Culver, Thayer, New Hampton, Kimball, Salisbury, Lawrence, etc.). Plus there are a ton of good NCAA teams (BU, BC, Providence, New Hampshire, etc.)
2) A Minnesota Scout. Pretty much a more western version of Boston. Ton of prep schools (Shattucks for sure, Minnetonka, Edina, etc.) and good NCAA (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Duluth, etc.) teams. It should also be easy enough to cover Wisconsin (which has a couple of prep schools themselves) and maybe even Chicago if necessary as well. This guy would replace Marino IMO (after he leaves or we fire him, because I do not think you need a Chicago scout).
3) Head Scout who covers the USDP, USHL, NAHL and pretty much any other region not covered by the first two. It may seem like a lot, and this guy will cover a lot of the draftable talent, but OHL scouts can often help out in these regions as well, because they are already scouting Michigan and Northern Penn for Saginaw, Flint and Erie, so they probably scout out some of those teams as well. Also consider that Lilley is probably going to treat these areas similar to how Hunter treated the OHL and will probably scout the USHL/NAHL/USDP a lot himself.
 
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SeaOfBlue

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He most likely did. Namestnikov and Mark are close.

My main point was that hopefully, we refill our Russian scouting ranks before this coming season. Russia is one of the easier places we can exploit how much you can spend on scouting, as it is a very expensive and tough place to scout, which is prohibitive to a lot of NHL teams. Any area that produces that many NHLers, and is ignored by other teams, is worth investing heavily in, at least in regards to having people on the ground scouting. Not saying we should invest heavily in picks not worth it.

Of course. I do not think Dubas is done with tampering with the staff yet. I think a new US Head Scout replacement will be on the list. Maybe another pro scout or two since we have lost two (Morrison to promotion and Albelin to leaving). Obviously a Russian scout or two as well. It may also be worthwhile to look into getting another scout in the Jelenik region. Czech/Swiss/Slovakians/Germans. While not many players get drafted out of those leagues (unless they play in the high pros), they are becoming increasingly more popular in the CHL Import Draft because they are cheaper to acquire and often view the CHL as a better option for their development than their home country. Russians are also extremely popular in the CHL draft. Finns and Swedes, predictably, have fallen off because many prefer to stay home or go straight to the AHL/NHL. Getting some tabs early on, like they probably did with Kral (although going to Spokane probably helped with that too, since Speltz was GM there for like 30 years), could help uncover some good talent. The Czechs and Swiss especially look like they are getting some really nice guys coming up in the next few years.

That does not include potentially replacing some of the old regime who I think will either leave with Hunter or Dubas will not like because they share a different (likely more Hunter) philosophy to drafting and scouting. There are some guys I think would be really nice to add.

I also think the Leafs need to replace Barb Underhill. It looks like she moved on to Tampa Bay. She was their skating development coach for rookie camp. I do not see how she can handle two NHL teams effectively... especially rivals.
 

blueberrie

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There's a lot of good, and some bad obviously.

Since the 2007 draft the Leafs have drafted the following out of U.S schools, or the USNDP

2008: Jimmy Hayes, F (2/60)
2009: Jerry D'Amigo, F (6/158)
2009: Eric Knodel, D (5/128)
2009: Kenny Ryan, F (2/50)
2011: Max Everson, D (7/203)
2011: Dennis Robertson, D (6/173)
2011: Tony Cameranesi, F (5/130)
2011: Tyler Biggs, F (1/22)
2012: Dominic Toninato, F (5/126)
2014: Nolan Vesey, F (6/158)
2014: Dakota Joshua, F (5/128)
2014: J.J Piccinich, F (4/103)
2015: Jeremy Bracco, F (2/61)
2016: J.D Greenway, D (3/72)
2016: Joseph Woll, G (3/62)

Hayes, Toninato, and D'Amigo became NHL'ers. There's some hope with Bracco, and Woll playing in the NHL. There's some that think Dakota Joshua could eventually become a 3rd or 4th line guy still as well.

So out of 15 picks, 5 or 6 of them will probably see NHL ice.

Not bad production TBH

My impression is that the Leafs USA drafting has always been poor.

I might have some time to do this later, but if someone wants to take a crack at it feel free.

How often was there a better US player taken within ~20 picks of the above list? Did the Leafs ever take a worse US player right before a clearly better one... or were these guys really the best available?
 

SeaOfBlue

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For all of those confused about why Greenway went to the USHL instead of the OHL, there are two reasons:

1) (Likely the main reason) By going to the USHL, he maintains his NCAA eligibility. He is likely transferring to a different NCAA school, which by NCAA rules means he has to sit out a year. It's worth it if the school is not helping your development. Most players who do this end up in the USHL because it's the most competitive league that lets them keep their eligibility. Better than not playing at all right? The league is not dominated by 16 and 17 year olds as many are saying. The league is actually, as a whole, similar in age to the CHL with a lot of good players. It's just the high end talent is typically younger since the guys who are drafted by teams end up playing their 19+ year old seasons in the NCAA rather than the USHL. You stick in the CHL for your 19/20 year old seasons.
2) Why would he want to go to Flint? Even though things have been better than before, they are still a tire fire. I doubt they help his development much more than a USHL team does. I guess he could be traded to a different OHL team, but he's an OA at that point and then after that he'll have to turn pro. He should stay away from the pro leagues as long as possible, since he fell behind in development a little bit.
 

93LEAFS

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Of course. I do not think Dubas is done with tampering with the staff yet. I think a new US Head Scout replacement will be on the list. Maybe another pro scout or two since we have lost two (Morrison to promotion and Albelin to leaving). Obviously a Russian scout or two as well. It may also be worthwhile to look into getting another scout in the Jelenik region. Czech/Swiss/Slovakians/Germans. While not many players get drafted out of those leagues (unless they play in the high pros), they are becoming increasingly more popular in the CHL Import Draft because they are cheaper to acquire and often view the CHL as a better option for their development than their home country. Russians are also extremely popular in the CHL draft. Finns and Swedes, predictably, have fallen off because many prefer to stay home or go straight to the AHL/NHL. Getting some tabs early on, like they probably did with Kral (although going to Spokane probably helped with that too, since Speltz was GM there for like 30 years), could help uncover some good talent. The Czechs and Swiss especially look like they are getting some really nice guys coming up in the next few years.

That does not include potentially replacing some of the old regime who I think will either leave with Hunter or Dubas will not like because they share a different (likely more Hunter) philosophy to drafting and scouting. There are some guys I think would be really nice to add.

I also think the Leafs need to replace Barb Underhill. It looks like she moved on to Tampa Bay. She was their skating development coach for rookie camp. I do not see how she can handle two NHL teams effectively... especially rivals.
Underhill has never been a full-time Leafs employee, just a private contractor we have used. As long as our camps don't overlap, it shouldn't be hard to cover two teams. She has actually worked with Tampa as long or longer than us, and has a gig with the Guelph Storm.

I'd expect some more moves announced, now that the hierarchy has been established.

As for Jelenik. I'm not sure how much extra we need to invest there. Central Europe is relatively easy for our Swedish and Finnish scouts to cross-check, and even occasionally scout themselves. Travel from Sweden or Finland to Switzerland, Germany and the Czech Republic is relatively easy. The issue with Russia, is its a nightmare to travel, taking basically 2 days to get anywhere that isn't St. Petersburg or Moscow from outside the country.
 

SeaOfBlue

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My impression is that the Leafs USA drafting has always been poor.

I might have some time to do this later, but if someone wants to take a crack at it feel free.

How often was there a better US player taken within ~20 picks of the above list? Did the Leafs ever take a worse US player right before a clearly better one... or were these guys really the best available?

I am only looking at American players, so I am not sure if there are more Canadians playing American like Robertson. They are typically pretty rare.

Hayes: BPA
Pateryn: Atkinson 37 picks later, Wingels (about equal) 49 picks later.
Knodel: Anders Lee 24 picks later, Nick Jensen 22 picks later.
D'Amigo: BPA (unless you count Nic Dowd who is not much better).
Ryan: Dumoulin was taken a pick later. Craig Smith was taken 48 picks later. Chris Wideman 50 picks later
Everson: Dzingel taken a pick later.
Cameranesi: Seeler taken a pick later, Kuraly three picks later.
Biggs: A lot of good talent soon after.
Robertson: BPA or not much better around.
Toninato: Hellebuyck taken 4 picks later. Carrick 11 picks later.
Piccinich: BPA
Joshua: Bjork 18 picks later.
Vesey: Hawkey got a 5th round pick in a trade instead of a 7th? 19 picks later. BPA though because more was involved outside of pure hockey skill.
Bracco: BPA by far
Woll: Technically it's really early, but maybe Adam Fox 4 picks later.
Greenway: BPA, even with the lack of development he's still better than a lot of the other guys you could have got. Anderson, Pitlick, Colton and Fitzgerald are decent, but not great at this point. Even in hindsight, Greenway has more potential and a better chance of turning out than most taken after him.

I'd say, as most people were saying, that that Burke era was by far worse than the rest. Pre-Burke era, it seemed okay. Post-Burke era, it may be too early to call but for the most part it seems like our guys are among the better ones. I think Lilley is a fine choice out of anyone in house. He's been here the longest. He has a ton of experience. And really, I do not know any other internal option who would be more suited for it than him. Vuori maybe, but that's close to a lateral move for him and the job is not as well suited for him. We do not have that many amazing scouts under the Hunter admin, which could explain the poor drafts as well, so hopefully this is Dubas starting out on the right foot and continuing to build up his staff to his liking. I think he'll bring in better people than Hunter did. It's a solid add. I think there may have been better options outside of the organization, but there are also a lot worse options as well.
 
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