I understand that those late picks from US university and development program are long shots just like any late pick is, but when you have a track record like our European scouts have you have to reward that and start picking from their recommendations in the later rounds exclusively. Most of those late US college picks seem like a throw away pick to me.
My thoughts:
1) I do not think there is a problem with drafting US players late, but I think the Leafs are just doing a better job at finding gems in Europe than they are the US. I look at a lot of the Americans available in later rounds and do not see the same sort of upside I see with Europeans. A lot of them seem like the types of guys you can find every year for free as NCAA FA's. A lot of bottom 6 upside and maybe safer type picks at best. Maybe guys you bring in on AHL deals and watch them grow into an ELC. Europeans are usually riskier but higher upside picks in those rounds.
2) In the NCAA, you could play against older, more mature guys than you do in the CHL, but there usually is not a ton of elite high end talent. Most of those guys leave after one year. In the CHL, you may play against younger guys but typically they are of higher quality than most of the guys you find in the NCAA. Then when you look at Europe, you see the better young guys playing against pros right away. So they get better than what you would get in the NCAA, and other than the non-transfer agreement countries (which have the added bonus of indefinite control), you can bring them over on ATO's whenever you want to get a closer look before just sending them back. So it's like the NCAA is a mix between the two worlds but not really the best at anything, so why go that route?
3) The NCAA system is broken for high end talent. I do not think guys should get paid, per say, but I do think guys who are the best in the field should be able to get endorsements or get benefits from a team that drafts them without having to lose their scholarship. It's hard to get them into camp, and it's not like some Europeans who are hard to get into camp because their European team is running one at the same time. The NCAA teams are just so hard on this "can't be a pro" thing that guys have to pay their own way, and some of them can not afford to do that (at least not every year).
I think you need three scouts to cover the United States:
1) A Boston/New England Scout which can cover the NCAA teams and minor teams out there. A lot of talent in the US comes from New England Prep schools if they do not go the USDP route (Culver, Thayer, New Hampton, Kimball, Salisbury, Lawrence, etc.). Plus there are a ton of good NCAA teams (BU, BC, Providence, New Hampshire, etc.)
2) A Minnesota Scout. Pretty much a more western version of Boston. Ton of prep schools (Shattucks for sure, Minnetonka, Edina, etc.) and good NCAA (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Duluth, etc.) teams. It should also be easy enough to cover Wisconsin (which has a couple of prep schools themselves) and maybe even Chicago if necessary as well. This guy would replace Marino IMO (after he leaves or we fire him, because I do not think you need a Chicago scout).
3) Head Scout who covers the USDP, USHL, NAHL and pretty much any other region not covered by the first two. It may seem like a lot, and this guy will cover a lot of the draftable talent, but OHL scouts can often help out in these regions as well, because they are already scouting Michigan and Northern Penn for Saginaw, Flint and Erie, so they probably scout out some of those teams as well. Also consider that Lilley is probably going to treat these areas similar to how Hunter treated the OHL and will probably scout the USHL/NAHL/USDP a lot himself.