Confirmed with Link: [TOR/COL] Ryan O'Byrne for 2014 4th Round Pick

[cup67]

we have some tough games coming up. we need atleast 6 wins to get us in.
they could be the hardest wins to get all year.

 

[1995]

Any idea what the lineup is going to be?

Phaneuf - Gunnar
Fraser - Franson
Liles/Gard - Kostka/ OB

Best guess?

 

[Phion Keneuf]

looks like rangers are now cup contenders. we start to make a move up in the standings

It's one game

 

[cup67]

It's one game

it could be the start of more, we play them 2 times next week.
wasington is on a roll, islanders,
we go below 500 and we could be in trouble.
these last games are like playoff games for teams that want to get in or stay in the playoffs.
hope are goalies and players can handle the pressure about to start tomorrow

 

[The Reaper]

Phaneuf - Gunnar
Fraser - Franson
Liles/Gard - Kostka/ OB

Best guess?

Fraser - Franson are third pairing

 

[InShannyWeTrust]

Phaneuf - Gunnar
Fraser - Franson
Liles/Gard - Kostka/ OB

Best guess?

No way kostka plays or I might burn the boats myself

 

[cup67]

No way kostka plays or I might burn the boats myself

gardiner will not play, unless there are injuries, or we start to lose, like 3 in a row
kostka will be in the stands with him

 

[7even]

The difference is the quality of shots we allow. We hardly allow teams into the middle of the ice.

http://vhockey.blogspot.com/2009/07/shot-quality-fantasy.html

And the universe requires that the EVsave% change as the goalie moves from team to team, if shot quality doesn't exist at all, well it will average .0122. With these 66 goalies it averages .0133. There is nowhere near enough veracity to even declare that a difference in shot quality exists at all, but again the distribution is a smidge wider with the real than it is with the random, so I'll give the benefit of the doubt and say that, on average, the difference in shot quality from any two teams selected at random ... the expected difference will be 2 goals on the season.

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/11/25/1835371/retro-nhl-and-anger-at-corsi

Together, Fenwick/Corsi and Luck account for around 3/4 of team winning percentage. What's the remainder? Goaltending talent - which Tom Awad estimates at about 5% - and special teams, along with a very small sliver that's due to shooting talent and the oft-mentioned "shot quality."

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/10/25/2512376/luck-vs-shot-quality-in-shooting-percentage

There's an interesting contradiction here: even though shot distance and shot location/quality are persistent, shooting percentage is very luck-driven.

Bottom line: shot distance/location/quality is just a tiny sliver of shooting percentage (both for and against.) When you factor in the 33% regression to the mean we see in odd and even samples, shot quality accounts for just under 10% of team shooting percentage.

I maintain that we're winning because James Reimer is tied for 6th in SV%, not because of a defensive system of debatable merit employed by one Mr. Carlyle.

 

[cup67]

http://vhockey.blogspot.com/2009/07/shot-quality-fantasy.html



http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/11/25/1835371/retro-nhl-and-anger-at-corsi



http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/10/25/2512376/luck-vs-shot-quality-in-shooting-percentage





I maintain that we're winning because James Reimer is tied for 6th in SV%, not because of a defensive system of debatable merit employed by one Mr. Carlyle.

we are winning cause we are scoring more goals this year.
both over 100, not good for goals aganist.

 

[ponder]

I like this move, we needed a decent right handed dman, and we got one cheap. Not super exciting or anything, but a good move.

 

[bonjovi0308]

Isn't Holzer better than this guy? It might be ok if we give up a 6th rounder for him but a 4th rounder is an overpayment imo. We only get a 4th (though could be a 3rd) for Lombardi.

 

[thewave]

I like this move, we needed a decent right handed dman, and we got one cheap. Not super exciting or anything, but a good move.

He is not a good D though, the only thing Nonis did was ensure an early exit out of the playoffs with his non moves

 

[Leafidelity]

He is not a good D though, the only thing Nonis did was ensure an early exit out of the playoffs with his non moves

Scary that there are people who think like this.

 

[Pi]

He is not a good D though, the only thing Nonis did was ensure an early exit out of the playoffs with his non moves

How do you know he's not a good D?

If Kessel scores in his first game, does that mean he's going to score 82 goals?

Look at Brassard and Moore tonight..they sucked in CBJ, and played well tonight.

Look at Clowe...he had a 3 point game.

Look at Lupul he was considered a cap dump and now he's King Joffrey.

Just because he sucked on a bad team, it doesn't mean he'll suck on the Leafs.

It's a 4th round pick.

Look at the BIG picture. What did the Habs do? They're fighting for the division and did nothing. The Leafs did the right thing.

 

[Rude Dog]

Not sure why the Leafs would target O'Byrne and Kipper as their deadline targets. Both having terrible seasons. Makes me worry a bit about our pro scouting.

 

[Remuskokafication]

sorry, wasn't around after the trade and don't want to scan whole thread,

has anyone made 'free wallet' joke yet?

 

[Pi]

Not sure why the Leafs would target O'Byrne and Kipper as their deadline targets. Both having terrible seasons. Makes me worry a bit about our pro scouting.

Perhaps they didn't want to spend much right now?

Nonis said from the start that he wasn't going to sell off pieces but he never said he'll be making big moves.

Leafs were going after Kipper because of 700+ NHL game experience.

ROB also has 300 games under his belt and looked good last year with Liles.

 

[SeenSchenn2]

Isn't Holzer better than this guy? It might be ok if we give up a 6th rounder for him but a 4th rounder is an overpayment imo. We only get a 4th (though could be a 3rd) for Lombardi.

Hahahaha Holzer is ****ing terrible.

 

[rojac]

How do you know he's not a good D?

If Kessel scores in his first game, does that mean he's going to score 82 goals?

Look at Brassard and Moore tonight..they sucked in CBJ, and played well tonight.

Look at Clowe...he had a 3 point game.

Look at Lupul he was considered a cap dump and now he's King Joffrey.

Just because he sucked on a bad team, it doesn't mean he'll suck on the Leafs.

It's a 4th round pick.

Look at the BIG picture. What did the Habs do? They're fighting for the division and did nothing. The Leafs did the right thing.

Well, the Habs added Ryder a few weeks ago and they did add a depth d-man yesterday.

 

[rojac]

Perhaps they didn't want to spend much right now?

Nonis said from the start that he wasn't going to sell off pieces but he never said he'll be making big moves.

Leafs were going after Kipper because of 700+ NHL game experience.

ROB also has 300 games under his belt and looked good last year with Liles.

Well, it would have been two years ago that he looked good with Liles. Liles was a Leaf last year.

 

[rojac]

sorry, wasn't around after the trade and don't want to scan whole thread,

has anyone made 'free wallet' joke yet?

Why would they? It's not a "free wallet". They gave up a fourth round pick.

 

[Phatic]

http://vhockey.blogspot.com/2009/07/shot-quality-fantasy.html



http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/11/25/1835371/retro-nhl-and-anger-at-corsi



http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/10/25/2512376/luck-vs-shot-quality-in-shooting-percentage





I maintain that we're winning because James Reimer is tied for 6th in SV%, not because of a defensive system of debatable merit employed by one Mr. Carlyle.

i normally tend to agree with you, but here im on the fence at best. our goaltenders BOTH have been good at making saves and this has helped us a fair bit this year. im not a huge fan of our shot differential either and I think come playoff time, corsi will catch up to this team. but having watched just about every leafs game last and this year id have to say theres a big difference in odd man rushes. calling it "shot quality" isnt doing it justice. the leafs were giving up 3/4 breakaways a game, and i cant even guess at TRUE odd man rushes. id estimate (guess) > 10. now those numbers are hardly facts but even if im off a bit one way or the other id wager that a reduction in this type of quality chance would result in a greater winning %.

what your article describes is "picking two teams at random" and taking the average. but thats not what we're doing here. we're looking at two specific teams. and this years team has REDUCED odd man rushes, thus allowing our goaltenders a chance to improve save %.

 

[bonjovi0308]

Hahahaha Holzer is ****ing terrible.

Might be ROB could be worse...

 

[Leaf Army]

This move has nothing to do with Gardiner and everything to do with Kostka.

Seems a lot of people still haven't noticed Carlyle is pretty obsessed with playing defencemen on their proper side. The fact O'Byrne is right handed is probably the biggest factor he's here. Gardiner being left handed is the biggest reason he's not in the lineup and Kostka consistently is.

I doubt Gardiner plays much the rest of the season but he'll be fine in the long-run. Liles will go in the offseason. I never really did like that signing. With Gardiner and now Rielly coming up behind him, Liles will be forced out.

 

[MiniMoose]

I think Scrivens, a second and something else could have landed us Erik Johnson