Lots of talk about the value of late first round picks. I was curious about the type of players that have been picked over the last 15 or so years in the late first round. I arbitrarily used a cutoff of pick #25 and lower in the first round back to 2006, the year, ironically, in which Foligno was selected at #28.
Lots of duds but definitely some gems, e.g. Pasternak, Foligno, Berglund, Perron, Carlson, Palmieri, Ennis, B. Smith, Nelson, Coyle, Kuznetsov, Rakell, Namestnikov.
Using the 5 years from 2010 to 2006, the thirty players picked from 25-30 have played a total of 7,945 games; an average of 318 games. Games played, however, is asymmetric and skewed, so median is a better indication of how many games one gets out of a typical 25-30/31 pick. The median amount of games played for 25-30 picks in the years 2006 - 2010 is 140 games. (It's been a long time since I've indulged in stats, so feel free to correct me, admonish me, etc.)
Is Foligno worth a late first rounder? I honestly don't know.
Num. | Drafted By | Player | Pos | Drafted From | GP | G | A | Pts | PIM | Last Season |
2020 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | Colorado | Justin Barron | D | Halifax Mooseheads [QMJHL] | | | | | | |
26 | St. Louis | Jake Neighbours | L | Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL] | | | | | | |
27 | Anaheim | Jacob Perreault | R | Sarnia Sting [OHL] | | | | | | |
28 | Ottawa | Ridly Greig | C | Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL] | | | | | | |
29 | Vegas | Brendan Brisson | F | Chicago Steel [USHL] | | | | | | |
30 | Dallas | Mavrick Bourque | C | Shawinigan Cataractes [QMJHL] | | | | | | |
31 | San Jose | Ozzy Wiesblatt | R | Prince Albert Raiders [WHL] | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2019 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | Washington | Connor McMichael | C | London Knights [OHL] | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2020-21 |
26 | Calgary | Jakob Pelletier | L | Moncton Wildcats [QMJHL] | | | | | | |
27 | Tampa Bay | Nolan Foote | L | Kelowna Rockets [WHL] | | | | | | |
28 | Carolina | Ryan Suzuki | C | Barrie Colts [OHL] | | | | | | |
29 | Anaheim | Brayden Tracey | L | Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] | | | | | | |
30 | Boston | John Beecher | C | U.S. National Development Team [USHL] | | | | | | |
31 | Buffalo | Ryan Johnson | D | Sioux Falls Stampede [USHL] | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2018 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | St. Louis | Dominik Bokk | L | Vaxjo HC [SweHL] | | | | | | |
26 | Ottawa | Jacob Bernard-Docker | D | Okotoks Oilers [AJHL] | | | | | | |
27 | Chicago | Nicolas Beaudin | D | Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL] | 15 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 2020-21 |
28 | NY Rangers | Nils Lundkvist | D | Lulea HF [SweHL] | | | | | | |
29 | Toronto | Rasmus Sandin | D | Soo Greyhounds [OHL] | 29 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 2020-21 |
30 | Detroit | Joe Veleno | C | Drummondville Voltigeurs [QMJHL] | | | | | | |
31 | Washington | Alexander Alexeyev | D | Red Deer Rebels [WHL] | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2017 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | Montreal | Ryan Poehling | C | St. Cloud State [NCHC] | 28 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2019-20 |
26 | Dallas | Jake Oettinger | G | Boston University [H-East] | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2020-21 |
27 | Philadelphia | Morgan Frost | C | Soo Greyhounds [OHL] | 22 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2020-21 |
28 | Ottawa | Shane Bowers | C | Waterloo Black Hawks [USHL] | | | | | | |
29 | Chicago | Henri Jokiharju | D | Portland Winterhawks [WHL] | 138 | 7 | 26 | 33 | 50 | 2020-21 |
30 | Nashville | Eeli Tolvanen | R | Sioux City Musketeers [USHL] | 38 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 4 | 2020-21 |
31 | St. Louis | Klim Kostin | C | Moscow Dynamo [KHL] | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2019-20 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2016 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | Dallas | Riley Tufte | L | Fargo Force [USHL] | | | | | | |
26 | St. Louis | Tage Thompson | R | U. of Connecticut [H-East] | 130 | 14 | 14 | 28 | 42 | 2020-21 |
27 | Tampa Bay | Brett Howden | C | Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] | 168 | 16 | 31 | 47 | 53 | 2020-21 |
28 | Washington | Lucas Johansen | D | Kelowna Rockets [WHL] | | | | | | |
29 | Boston | Trent Frederic | C | U.S. National Development Team [USHL] | 53 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 70 | 2020-21 |
30 | Anaheim | Sam Steel | C | Regina Pats [WHL] | 118 | 16 | 27 | 43 | 34 | 2020-21 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2015 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | Winnipeg | Jack Roslovic | C | U.S. National Development Team [USHL] | 215 | 34 | 61 | 95 | 28 | 2020-21 |
26 | Montreal | Noah Juulsen | D | Everett Silvertips [WHL] | 48 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 2020-21 |
27 | Anaheim | Jacob Larsson | D | Frolunda Jrs. (Sweden) | 148 | 2 | 17 | 19 | 40 | 2020-21 |
28 | NY Islanders | Anthony Beauvillier | L | Shawinigan Cataractes [QMJHL] | 319 | 74 | 68 | 142 | 57 | 2020-21 |
29 | Columbus | Gabriel Carlsson | D | Linkopings Jrs. (Sweden) | 36 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 2020-21 |
30 | Arizona | Nick Merkley | R | Kelowna Rockets [WHL] | 20 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 2020-21 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2014 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | Boston | David Pastrnak | R | Sodertalje SK [Swe-1] | 422 | 196 | 215 | 411 | 189 | 2020-21 |
26 | Montreal | Nikita Scherbak | R | Saskatoon Blades [WHL] | 37 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 2018-19 |
27 | San Jose | Nikolay Goldobin | R | Sarnia Sting [OHL] | 125 | 19 | 27 | 46 | 24 | 2019-20 |
28 | NY Islanders | Josh Ho-Sang | R | Windsor Spitfires [OHL] | 53 | 7 | 17 | 24 | 20 | 2018-19 |
29 | Los Angeles | Adrian Kempe | C | MODO Hockey Ornskoldsvik [SweHL] | 296 | 54 | 71 | 125 | 152 | 2020-21 |
30 | New Jersey | John Quenneville | C | Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL] | 42 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 2019-20 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2013 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | Montreal | Michael McCarron | R | U.S. National Development Team [USHL] | 74 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 126 | 2020-21 |
26 | Anaheim | Shea Theodore | D | Seattle Thunderbirds [WHL] | 301 | 42 | 117 | 159 | 101 | 2020-21 |
27 | Columbus | Marko Dano | C | Bratislava Slovan [KHL] | 141 | 19 | 26 | 45 | 49 | 2019-20 |
28 | Calgary | Morgan Klimchuk | L | Regina Pats [WHL] | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2017-18 |
29 | Dallas | Jason Dickinson | C | Guelph Storm [OHL] | 206 | 23 | 35 | 58 | 58 | 2020-21 |
30 | Chicago | Ryan Hartman | R | Plymouth Whalers [OHL] | 349 | 57 | 69 | 126 | 312 | 2020-21 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2012 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | St. Louis | Jordan Schmaltz | D | Green Bay Gamblers [USHL] | 42 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 2018-19 |
26 | Vancouver | Brendan Gaunce | C | Belleville Bulls [OHL] | 118 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 47 | 2019-20 |
27 | Phoenix | Henrik Samuelsson | C | Edmonton Oil Kings [WHL] | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2014-15 |
28 | NY Rangers | Brady Skjei | D | U.S. National Development Team [USHL] | 354 | 26 | 94 | 120 | 198 | 2020-21 |
29 | New Jersey | Stefan Matteau | L | U.S. National Development Team [USHL] | 81 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 2020-21 |
30 | Los Angeles | Tanner Pearson | L | Barrie Colts [OHL] | 490 | 114 | 112 | 226 | 156 | 2020-21 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2011 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | Toronto | Stuart Percy | D | Mississauga St. Michael's Majors [OHL] | 12 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2015-16 |
26 | Chicago | Phillip Danault | C | Victoriaville Tigres [QMJHL] | 377 | 54 | 141 | 195 | 172 | 2020-21 |
27 | Tampa Bay | Vladislav Namestnikov | C | London Knights [OHL] | 466 | 89 | 113 | 202 | 243 | 2020-21 |
28 | Minnesota | Zack Phillips | C | Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL] | | | | | | |
29 | Vancouver | Nicklas Jensen | R | Oshawa Generals [OHL] | 31 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 2016-17 |
30 | Anaheim | Rickard Rakell | L | Plymouth Whalers [OHL] | 485 | 136 | 169 | 305 | 104 | 2020-21 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2010 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | Florida | Quinton Howden | C | Moose Jaw Warriors [WHL] | 97 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 30 | 2016-17 |
26 | Washington | Evgeny Kuznetsov | C | Chelyabinsk Traktor [KHL] | 511 | 127 | 283 | 410 | 258 | 2020-21 |
27 | Phoenix | Mark Visentin | G | Niagara IceDogs [OHL] | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2013-14 |
28 | San Jose | Charlie Coyle | C | South Shore Kings [EJHL] | 608 | 114 | 185 | 299 | 229 | 2020-21 |
29 | Anaheim | Emerson Etem | R | Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL] | 173 | 22 | 24 | 46 | 30 | 2016-17 |
30 | NY Islanders | Brock Nelson | C | Warroad H.S. [Minn.] | 590 | 165 | 155 | 320 | 213 | 2020-21 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2009 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | Boston | Jordan Caron | R | Rimouski Oceanic [QMJHL] | 157 | 12 | 16 | 28 | 78 | 2015-16 |
26 | Anaheim | Kyle Palmieri | R | U.S. National Under-18 Team [Ind] | 598 | 184 | 172 | 356 | 306 | 2020-21 |
27 | Carolina | Philippe Paradis | L | Shawinigan Cataractes [QMJHL] | | | | | | |
28 | Chicago | Dylan Olsen | D | Camrose Kodiaks [AJHL] | 124 | 5 | 17 | 22 | 36 | 2015-16 |
29 | Tampa Bay | Carter Ashton | R | Lethbridge Hurricanes [WHL] | 54 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 32 | 2014-15 |
30 | Pittsburgh | Simon Despres | D | Saint John Sea Dogs [QMJHL] | 193 | 6 | 37 | 43 | 150 | 2016-17 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2008 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | Calgary | Greg Nemisz | C | Windsor Spitfires [OHL] | 15 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2011-12 |
26 | Buffalo | Tyler Ennis | L | Medicine Hat Tigers [WHL] | 641 | 136 | 186 | 322 | 208 | 2020-21 |
27 | Washington | John Carlson | D | Indiana Ice [USHL] | 799 | 115 | 398 | 513 | 268 | 2020-21 |
28 | Phoenix | Viktor Tikhonov | L | Cherepovets Severstal [Russia] | 111 | 11 | 11 | 22 | 40 | 2015-16 |
29 | Atlanta | Daultan Leveille | C | St. Catharines Falcons [GHJHL] | | | | | | |
30 | Detroit | Tom McCollum | G | Guelph Storm [OHL] | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2014-15 |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2007 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | Vancouver | Patrick White | C | Tri-City Storm [USHL] | | | | | | |
26 | St. Louis | David Perron | L | Lewiston MAINEiacs [QMJHL] | 891 | 236 | 354 | 590 | 668 | 2020-21 |
27 | Detroit | Brendan Smith | D | St. Michael's Buzzers [OPJHL] | 512 | 27 | 80 | 107 | 560 | 2020-21 |
28 | San Jose | Nick Petrecki | D | Omaha Lancers [USHL] | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2012-13 |
29 | Ottawa | Jim O'Brien | C | U. of Minnesota [WCHA] | 77 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 16 | 2017-18 |
30 | Phoenix | Nick Ross | D | Regina Pats [WHL] | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | |
2006 | | | | | | | | | | |
25 | St. Louis | Patrik Berglund | C | Vasteras IK [Swe-1] | 717 | 170 | 156 | 326 | 248 | 2018-19 |
26 | Calgary | Leland Irving | G | Everett Silvertips [WHL] | 13 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2012-13 |
27 | Dallas | Ivan Vishnevskiy | D | Rouyn-Noranda Huskies [QMJHL] | 5 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2009-10 |
28 | Ottawa | Nick Foligno | L | Sudbury Wolves [OHL] | 950 | 203 | 279 | 482 | 765 | 2020-21 |
29 | Phoenix | Chris Summers | D | US National Under 18 Team | 70 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 51 | 2015-16 |
30 | New Jersey | Matt Corrente | D | Saginaw Spirit [OHL] | 34 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 68 | 2010-11 |
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