Top Forwards by WAR 2007-2020

  1. NHL WAR Registered User

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    The numbers for every available season have been crunched... here are the top 25 most valuable forwards by WAR since the start of the 07-08 season:

    (DGS= defensive goals saved, FO=faceoffs, PD= penalty differential, rep= accounts for difference between average and replacement level)
    playerGPTOISHOOTINGPASSINGDGSFOPDREPWARPER 82
    SIDNEY.CROSBY82417247.9137236.1-7.68.918.614872.17.2
    ALEX.OVECHKIN98820612.2312.76.4-25.9-0.510176.963.95.3
    EVGENI.MALKIN82916616.3124.2196-5-14.64.5142.659.75.9
    PATRICK.KANE97119524.4101.4169.3-9.8-2.517.9167.559.25
    ANZE.KOPITAR100121090.514.3142.223.111.825.718153.14.3
    JONATHAN.TOEWS94218730.976.9107.910.231.47.2160.652.64.6
    STEVEN.STAMKOS80315559.1175.368.6-10.7-26.9133.349.55.1
    JOE.THORNTON96318042.3-79.524328.911.88.3154.9494.2
    PATRICE.BERGERON85916057.270.58143.738.4-6.4137.648.64.6
    JOE.PAVELSKI98218598.898.947.123.314.718.8159.548.34
    NICKLAS.BACKSTROM95518780-34.2224.211-0.1-8.2161.247.24.1
    CLAUDE.GIROUX88917530.48.6152.7-7.319.120.2150.145.84.2
    JOHN.TAVARES81416190.7121.585.5-24.65.114.6138.745.44.6
    BRAD.MARCHAND75113256.4101.6102.216.9-1.4-3.5113.443.94.8
    PAVEL.DATSYUK58911726.636.8114.543.81023.410143.96.1
    RYAN.GETZLAF91418729.4-39.720920.4-4.5-20.9160.743.33.9
    DANIEL.SEDIN82715313.361107.423-0.80.3131.6434.3
    ZACH.PARISE85216234.1112.624.19.6-0.923.2139.441.14
    HENRIK.ZETTERBERG80115989.216.1122.814.51.811.7137.440.64.2
    ERIC.STAAL99519679.87775.2-21.4-5.75.3168.939.93.3
    BLAKE.WHEELER93017202.732.9134-4.8-2.1-8.8147.339.83.5
    HENRIK.SEDIN84716012.7-77.5227.118.8-6.5-3.5137.639.53.8
    JAMIE.BENN81415044.996.668.3-0.3-1.32.2128.839.23.9
    PHIL.KESSEL99518370.5111.668.6-45-1.51.2157.6393.2
    COREY.PERRY90717004.9113.428.85.8-1.4-6.214638.23.5

    I don't know about you, but that seems pretty spot on to me.

    Here's the top 15 on a per 82 game basis ( minimum of 82 GP):

    playerGPTOISHOOTINGPASSINGDGSFOPDREPWARPER 82
    CONNOR.MCDAVID3517525.657.7112.1-12.4-618.964.131.37.3
    SIDNEY.CROSBY82417247.9137236.1-7.68.918.614872.17.2
    AUSTON.MATTHEWS2825299.191.714.8-2.51.36.545.120.96.1
    PAVEL.DATSYUK58911726.636.8114.543.81023.410143.96.1
    EVGENI.MALKIN82916616.3124.2196-5-14.64.5142.659.75.9
    NIKITA.KUCHEROV5159242.787.4102.42.9-0.12.778.936.65.8
    DAVID.PASTRNAK3906739.679.147.23.4-0.411.157.526.45.6
    ARTEMI.PANARIN3917697.831.695.32.8-0.26.365.626.95.6
    ALEX.OVECHKIN98820612.2312.76.4-25.9-0.510176.963.95.3
    STEVEN.STAMKOS80315559.1175.368.6-10.7-26.9133.349.55.1
    PATRICK.KANE97119524.4101.4169.3-9.8-2.517.9167.559.25
    LEON.DRAISAITL4228256.139.779.2-8.60.47.170.425.14.9
    ELIAS.PETTERSSON1392541.910.719.42.4-1.88.421.68.14.8
    JOHNNY.GAUDREAU4648846.523.785.8-6.3-0.122.875.526.94.8
    BRAD.MARCHAND75113256.4101.6102.216.9-1.4-3.5113.443.94.8

    I'll continue to update tomorrow. Message with any questions or data requests.
     
  2. tgo0 Registered User

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    Nice job. Not sure how accessible these things are but would be interested in seeing the top 5/10 in individual seasons. See how this years Drai stacks up against prime Crosby in these numbers.
     
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  3. Stamkos4life Registered User

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    Surprised to see matthews so high in on the list
     
  4. Dominance 99664987

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    Given the order of players seems to stand pretty well to what logic and the eye test would tell me - not perfectly, of course, but much better than almost any other stat - this is a perfect example of why WAR is legitimately valuable in my eyes.
     
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  5. Regal Registered User

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    List stands up fairly well. Though there's a few head scratching things, such as Bergeron's faceoff ability having almost as much value as his defense. Would be interesting to see things broken down into say best season, best 3 seasons combined, best 5 seasons combined, etc
     
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  6. Amazinmets73 Registered User

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    Mcdavid will have to stay healthy and play extremely well through his late 20s/early 30s to be as valuable as Crosby. He's currently at parity over an 82 game basis. This is despite having the advantage of having played the entirety of his career at peak output age for a forward. Furthermore, I don't expect him to age as well as Crosby due to his game being more speed-based.
    The WAR charts solidly display that Sid the Kid is the greatest player of the modern era. Mcdavid still has an outside chance to best him!
    NHL WAR, thanks very much for your hard work and wisdom! I for one can't wait to see defenseman.
     
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  7. Black Kevin Registered User

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    Joe Thornton, my man.
     
  8. Dion TheFluff Registered User

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    he's pretty underrated
     
  9. Dion TheFluff Registered User

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    you should do defenceman as well
     
  10. CanadianSharks Registered User

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    So weird to see a list like this actually match the eye test. Good job!
     
  11. Dekes For Days Registered User

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    You shouldn't be.
     
  12. NHL WAR Registered User

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    These are all the 7+ WAR seasons:


    PLAYERSEASONGPTOIShootingPassingDGSTotal FO GoalsPD GoalsReplacement GoalsWAR
    ALEX.OVECHKIN07/08821894.239.84.50.6-0.15.816.59
    EVGENI.MALKIN11/12751575.126.923.90.6-0.92.413.58.8
    ALEX.OVECHKIN09/10721569.430.118.72.10-0.413.68.5
    NIKITA.KUCHEROV18/19821628.215.537-2.30-0.813.88.4
    HENRIK.SEDIN09/10821614.65.242.30.5-0.2-0.2148.2
    PAVEL.DATSYUK07/08821751.86.824.96.50.95.915.38
    SIDNEY.CROSBY09/10811778.324.318.4-1.12.1-0.515.47.8
    CONNOR.MCDAVID16/17821728.48.828.20.2-1.4714.87.7
    HENRIK.ZETTERBERG07/08751653.221.611.74.41.53.614.47.6
    CONNOR.MCDAVID17/18821767.218.623.9-3.5-24.6157.6
    SIDNEY.CROSBY18/19791658.410.326.21.92.41.714.17.5
    CONNOR.MCDAVID18/19781780.612.527.6-3.5-0.84.315.17.4
    ZACH.PARISE08/09821538.123.110.84.8-0.22.913.27.3
    PAVEL.DATSYUK08/09811537.19.622.84.11.62.913.27.2
    DANIEL.SEDIN10/11821521.417.322.12.1-0.1-0.3137.2
    LEON.DRAISAITL19/20711605.416.824.5-3.10.31.713.77.2
    PATRICK.KANE15/16821672.919.820.7-1.8-0.41.114.37.2
    NICKLAS.BACKSTROM09/10821676.68.429.12.8-0.3-1.114.57.1
    SIDNEY.CROSBY13/14801757.810.723.90.40.91.615.17
    JAROME.IGINLA07/08821732.724.47.91.70.42.915.17
    ALEX.OVECHKIN08/09791817.431.66.7-1.6-0.20.415.67

    Draisaitl stacks up pretty well, especially considering GP differences.
    Crosby's injuries held him back. From 2010-13 he was on a 10+ WAR over 82 games pace.
     
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  13. NHL WAR Registered User

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    Yeah, I plan on giving it a go. Goalies too
     
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  14. NHL WAR Registered User

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    Top 10 this season:


    GPTOIShootingPassingDGSTotal FO GoalsPD GoalsReplacement GoalsWAR
    LEON.DRAISAITL (EDM)711605.416.824.5-3.10.31.713.77.2
    ARTEMI.PANARIN (NYR)691421.710.5260.601.712.16.8
    DAVID.PASTRNAK (BOS)701327.325.911.90.3-0.1111.36.7
    NATHAN.MACKINNON (COL)691464.41320.80.6-1.42.712.56.4
    BRAD.MARCHAND (BOS)701361.78.223.43.6-0.10.911.66.4
    AUSTON.MATTHEWS (TOR)701467.925.92.31.91.11.112.56
    NIKITA.KUCHEROV (T.B)681282.71517.70.40010.95.9
    CONNOR.MCDAVID (EDM)641399.412.621.5-4.5-0.31.611.95.7
    MAX.PACIORETTY (VGK)711271168.13.70.1-0.510.85.1
    EVGENI.MALKIN (PIT)551073.78.321.70.40-1.59.15.1

    Pacioretty surprised me, but the rest are pretty much as you'd expect. What a signing Panarin was
     
  15. Rabid Ranger 2 is better than one

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    Never underestimate the disdain HF has for Matthews.
     
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  16. Deam78 Registered User

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    Man, this is absolutely awesome! Thanks for putting this together!
     
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  17. The90 Registered User

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    He definitely doesn’t get as much credit as he deserves that’s for sure. Leaf fans are lucky to have him
     
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  18. DeeVeeUss Registered User

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    Stammer is SO damn good, it's a shame injuries have robbed him out of so many games. Converted his game from sniper to 200ft playmaker
     
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  19. wetcoast Registered User

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    On first blush I'm surprised to not see Eichel on this list but I haven't looked at the data very closely either.

    Pac is also very surprising as I wouldn't have him in my list of top 10 forwards in overall value this year but it is 9th.
     
  20. Legion34 Registered User

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    Of course you are. He was “clearly surpassed by eichel” if I recall correctly.
     
  21. The90 Registered User

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    He definitely doesn’t get as much credit as he deserves that’s for sure. Leaf fans are lucky to have him
     
  22. Legion34 Registered User

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    the funny thing is. If you post on the leafs board. You are automatically assumed to be a fan. And like that poster can just troll leafs players beyond belief. It’s very odd
     
  23. Stamkos4life Registered User

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    I'm not sure you do recall correctly.

    Either way, it's not like matthews is that much better than eichel, if at all. If eichel got to play with marner and had JT to play against other teams top lines, jack would have more points.
     
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2020
  24. Stamkos4life Registered User

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    Debatable.
     
  25. Dion TheFluff Registered User

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    not at all
     

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