Top Forwards by WAR 2007-2020

wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
22,246
10,125
I love that Kopi is quietly sitting there at 5th despite not having any 7+ WAR seasons over that span. That's the most classic Kopitar move, it cracks me up. Not too high, not too low, just right.

Kopitar is just rock solid not a superstar but a guy who is consistently very good.

He will be under rated when it's all said and done.
 

DearDiary

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Aug 29, 2010
14,623
11,400
That alone exposes these calculations as a joke.

I do not find any merit in these stats. Even more misleading than VsX.

I was flipping back and forth, but now I've decided I like these WAR rankings.
 

Incognito

Registered User
Oct 18, 2008
6,430
2,955
Toronto, Ontario
This must've been what KD was looking at when he gave Matthews that albatross of a contract.

3rd highest cap hit with the shortest term of anyone in the top 26 highest paid.

McDavid (by far the best player in the world) will still have 2 more years on his current contract when Matthews is already on his next contract.

Care to explain how his contract is an "albatross", or would you prefer to just continue ranting incoherently?
 

kugelbahn

Registered User
Feb 15, 2018
328
417
OVs 6.4 cumulative "passing" is definitely surprising.
OV is fourteenth in assists since 07/08 with 472A. Kessel with same 472A and 68.6 "passing", E.Staal is seventeenth with 470A and 75.2 "passing", Wheeler is tenth with 497A and 134 "passing".
Granted Staal and Wheeler are better passers but raw A totals are pretty similar. Idk about Kessel...

Since 07/08 from hockey-reference:

RkPlayerAGP
1Nicklas Backstrom684956
2Sidney Crosby654824
3Joe Thornton640964
4Ryan Getzlaf633914
5Patrick Kane633973
6Evgeni Malkin608829
7Henrik Sedin600848
8Anze Kopitar5761001
9Claude Giroux558889
10Blake Wheeler497931
11Henrik Zetterberg492802
12Jakub Voracek488915
13David Krejci479905
14Phil Kessel472996
15Alex Ovechkin472989
16Keith Yandle472969
17Eric Staal470995
18Jonathan Toews470943
19Erik Karlsson468736
20Duncan Keith468975
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
 

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
1,176
OVs 6.4 cumulative "passing" is definitely surprising.
OV is fourteenth in assists since 07/08 with 472A. Kessel with same 472A and 68.6 "passing", E.Staal is seventeenth with 470A and 75.2 "passing", Wheeler is tenth with 497A and 134 "passing".
Granted Staal and Wheeler are better passers but raw A totals are pretty similar. Idk about Kessel...

Since 07/08 from hockey-reference:

RkPlayerAGP
1Nicklas Backstrom684956
2Sidney Crosby654824
3Joe Thornton640964
4Ryan Getzlaf633914
5Patrick Kane633973
6Evgeni Malkin608829
7Henrik Sedin600848
8Anze Kopitar5761001
9Claude Giroux558889
10Blake Wheeler497931
11Henrik Zetterberg492802
12Jakub Voracek488915
13David Krejci479905
14Phil Kessel472996
15Alex Ovechkin472989
16Keith Yandle472969
17Eric Staal470995
18Jonathan Toews470943
19Erik Karlsson468736
20Duncan Keith468975
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Yeah, I was a little surprised as well. Here is what it looks like year by year:

20200329_094917.jpg


From 07-11, he was putting up big assist totals and the passing "goals" reflect that. In 09-10, he had nearly three times as many as he now cumulatively has. It is all the recent seasons when we are talking about "most goals with so little assists, 50/20, etc." that weigh him down. He is just not getting as many helpers as you'd expect of a 1st liner with lots of powerplay time.

Additionally, he has never had a great effect on the quantity and quality of his linemates shots, which will give some of the other guys you named a boost. It's possible the other guys also had a higher ratio of primary to secondary assists, which would make a difference over such a large sample.

Regardless, it is a relatively small price to pay to be the ultimate goal scorer.
 

kugelbahn

Registered User
Feb 15, 2018
328
417
Thanks @NHL WAR,
I did some screenshots from evolving-hockey for OV vs Kessel since they have same A totals but "passing" goals are significantly better for Phil.
Since 07/08:
Even Strength
upload_2020-3-29_10-57-47.png

Power Play
upload_2020-3-29_11-1-21.png

Total
upload_2020-3-29_11-3-20.png


* No short handed assist for either of them. Kind of strange that ES+PP don't add up to Tot. Iron Phil played 6 extra games but less total TOI.

Probably PP A/TOI brings OVs "passing" goals down.
OV has such a unique PP utilization I am not surprised that model "punishes" him for lack of PP As.

Is it possible to get effective weights for PPG/PPA1/PPA2/ESG/ESA1/ESA2?
 
Last edited:

Sasso09

Registered User
Jan 2, 2009
12,409
1,892
Chicago
OVs 6.4 cumulative "passing" is definitely surprising.
OV is fourteenth in assists since 07/08 with 472A. Kessel with same 472A and 68.6 "passing", E.Staal is seventeenth with 470A and 75.2 "passing", Wheeler is tenth with 497A and 134 "passing".
Granted Staal and Wheeler are better passers but raw A totals are pretty similar. Idk about Kessel...

Since 07/08 from hockey-reference:

RkPlayerAGP
1Nicklas Backstrom684956
2Sidney Crosby654824
3Joe Thornton640964
4Ryan Getzlaf633914
5Patrick Kane633973
6Evgeni Malkin608829
7Henrik Sedin600848
8Anze Kopitar5761001
9Claude Giroux558889
10Blake Wheeler497931
11Henrik Zetterberg492802
12Jakub Voracek488915
13David Krejci479905
14Phil Kessel472996
15Alex Ovechkin472989
16Keith Yandle472969
17Eric Staal470995
18Jonathan Toews470943
19Erik Karlsson468736
20Duncan Keith468975
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
A lot of Ovechkin's Assist come from rebounds after shots. I'm not too familiar with this stat and its tracking but could that be an explanation?
 

Caeldan

Whippet Whisperer
Jun 21, 2008
15,459
1,046
Particularly impressive considering that range includes twilight and retirement (from NHL) years. Almost hate to bring it up, but the bottom 5 and 7 of worst 11 WARs this year are Wings.

I'd be curious to see what the bottom twenty look like (though over that time span I'd say a minimum of 400 or 500 games to weed out stop gap signings).
 

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
1,176
Thanks @NHL WAR,
I did some screenshots from evolving-hockey for OV vs Kessel since they have same A totals but "passing" goals are significantly better for Phil.
Since 07/08:
Even Strength
View attachment 339627
Power Play
View attachment 339628
Total
View attachment 339630

* No short handed assist for either of them. Kind of strange that ES+PP don't add up to Tot. Iron Phil played 6 extra games but less total TOI.

Probably PP A/TOI brings OVs "passing" goals down.
OV has such a unique PP utilization I am not surprised that model "punishes" him for lack of PP As.

Is it possible to get effective weights for PPG/PPA1/PPA2/ESG/ESA1/ESA2?

ES G= 1 A1=0.88 A2=0.69
PP G=0.7 A1=0.61 A2=0.44
 
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NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
1,176
I'd be curious to see what the bottom twenty look like (though over that time span I'd say a minimum of 400 or 500 games to weed out stop gap signings).

Bottom 20 ( all at least a couple hundred games):


playerGPTOI SHOOTINGPASSINGDGSFOPDREP GARWAR PER 82
CODY.MCLEOD7767764.9 -19.5-67.3-10.2-0.3-20.866.7 -51.4-6.8 -0.7
COLTON.ORR3882502 -24.9-31.60.6-0.1-16.721.6 -51.2-6.8 -1.4
TANNER.GLASS5275405.5 -43.4-38.4-7.8-0.7-5.446.5 -49.4-6.6 -1
ZENON.KONOPKA3172720.4 -27.7-29.90.17.2-10.423.4 -37.3-5 -1.3
ZAC.RINALDO3703145.2 -21.8-27.8-3.1-0.1-9.426.9 -35.3-4.7 -1
MIKE.BROWN4073350.2 -19-39.1-0.3-0.2-4.928.8 -34.6-4.6 -0.9
JERRED.SMITHSON4455740.7 -43-44.75.36.1-6.249.5 -33-4.4 -0.8
JOHN.SCOTT2661845 -21.6-20.53.20-10.315.9 -33.4-4.4 -1.4
RAITIS.IVANANS2121350.3 -11-20.8-0.60-9.111.7 -29.9-4 -1.5
KRYS.BARCH3542300.1 -24.4-20.12.7-0.1-7.619.8 -29.6-3.9 -0.9
NICOLAS.DESLAURIERS3763947.1 -16.6-37.6-5.10-3.133.7 -28.7-3.8 -0.8
ERIC.BOULTON3862860.6 -17.9-20.5-4.9-0.1-8.624.7 -27.3-3.6 -0.8
ETHAN.MOREAU2433432.5 -8.8-23-15.1-0.3-9.729.6 -27.3-3.6 -1.2
JARED.BOLL5784371.3 -29.6-35.72.5-0.2-1.337.6 -26.7-3.6 -0.5
TRAVIS.MOEN5447330.7 -47.8-41.4-1.4-0.4163.2 -26.6-3.5 -0.5
BJ.CROMBEEN4454988.9 -23.2-31.40.3-0.8-12.442.9 -24.5-3.3 -0.6
BRANDON.BOLLIG2412183 -15.7-22.52.90-818.7 -24.5-3.3 -1.1
JACOB.DE LA ROSE2292701.3 -21.2-17.5-0.4-2.2-3.923 -22.2-3 -1.1
SHAWN.THORNTON6255603.8 -23.4-44.86.3-0.4-848.2 -22.1-2.9 -0.4
TODD.MARCHANT3044439.9 -27.9-25.3-1.90.3-538.4 -21.5-2.9 -0.8
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Mostly eradicated goons
 

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
1,176
A lot of Ovechkin's Assist come from rebounds after shots. I'm not too familiar with this stat and its tracking but could that be an explanation?

Not in the sense that I have separate data based on rebound/ non rebound, but it probably reflects in the CF/ xGF portion ( that he isn't setting up Backstrom for lots of high danger chances, its vice versa and maybe someone else gets the rebound.)
 

NHL WAR

Registered User
Sep 29, 2018
959
1,176
Thanks,
weighted assists for OV: 310, Kessel: 322

1.31 vs 1.40 weighted ES assists per 60 mins
4.35 vs 6.48 weighted PP assists per 60 mins
Nice work. So face value they are nearly identical. Ice time differences, a big gap in power play efficiency, varying yearly league averages and Corsi/ Expected Goals widen the gap
 

Midnight Judges

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Feb 10, 2010
13,491
10,045
Ovechkin isn't first=joke calculations

Don't worry, we get it.

Well yes, Ovechkin not being first in wins above replacement since 05-06 is a joke because he has the most points and 53% more goals than any other player. Even if you think Crosby is the better player on a per game basis, there is simply no way his absolute value outweighs Ovechkin's massive margins in productivity.
 

CanadienShark

Registered User
Dec 18, 2012
37,357
10,609
Kopitar is just rock solid not a superstar but a guy who is consistently very good.

He will be under rated when it's all said and done.
Agreed. Kopitar should be considered at least equal to Toews, and not far behind Bergeron.
 

Midnight Judges

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Feb 10, 2010
13,491
10,045
You realize Ovechkin has the first and third best seasons on record by this "joke" calculation

Don't care.

Ovechkin has maintained .48 assists per game since 2007. Toews has sustained .5 assists per game since 2007. You have Toews's passer rating as 107 and Ovie's as 6.

I realize you put a lot of time into this but your system is not indicative of reality.
 

Yackiberg8

Registered User
Mar 11, 2016
2,777
1,666
Halifax
Well yes, Ovechkin not being first in wins above replacement since 05-06 is a joke because he has the most points and 53% more goals than any other player. Even if you think Crosby is the better player on a per game basis, there is simply no way his absolute value outweighs Ovechkin's massive margins in productivity.
It looks like there might be a way if you read post #1.
 

Midnight Judges

HFBoards Sponsor
Sponsor
Feb 10, 2010
13,491
10,045
List stands up fairly well. Though there's a few head scratching things, such as Bergeron's faceoff ability having almost as much value as his defense. Would be interesting to see things broken down into say best season, best 3 seasons combined, best 5 seasons combined, etc

Bergeron's face-off excellence is 6 times more valuable than Ovechkin's playmaking relative to a replacement level player.

So basically winning 58 face-offs for every 42 you lose is worth like, hmmm.....what's 472 x 6....okay yeah like 2800 Ovechkin assists (which are clearly lesser assists) over a span of 13 seasons.

Obviously face-offs are far more important than any of us ever realized.

/sarcasm
 

wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
22,246
10,125
ES G= 1 A1=0.88 A2=0.69
PP G=0.7 A1=0.61 A2=0.44


This needs repeating,


It's pretty ironic that MJ doesn't like a metric that breaks down points like this

Even strength

Goals= 1.0
Primary assist =0.88
Secondary assist =0 .69

Power Play

Goals= 0.7
Primary assist = 0.61
Secondary assist = 0.44
 
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wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
22,246
10,125
More proof that OV had the best peak season and best extended peak of this generation. :thumbu:


It also shows the clear gap that Crosby has on him for his career already, even with the missed games.

Elias Pettersson in a short time frame is already 13th per 82 GP and he hasn't even touched on his potential yet.

Will be very interesting to see how he fares over the next 10 years.

My guess is that he will surpass Hank by then.
 

wetcoast

Registered User
Nov 20, 2018
22,246
10,125
More proof that OV had the best peak season and best extended peak of this generation. :thumbu:


It also shows the clear gap that Crosby has on him for his career already, even with the missed games.

Elias Pettersson in a short time frame is already 13th per 82 GP and he hasn't even touched on his potential yet.

Will be very interesting to see how he fares over the next 10 years.

My guess is that he will surpass Hank by then.
 

KoozNetsOff 92

Hala Madrid
Apr 6, 2016
8,567
8,229
It also shows the clear gap that Crosby has on him for his career already, even with the missed games.

Elias Pettersson in a short time frame is already 13th per 82 GP and he hasn't even touched on his potential yet.

Will be very interesting to see how he fares over the next 10 years.

My guess is that he will surpass Hank by then.

I've said on many occasions that Crosby has a better/more consistent prime (1 of the best ever) so I'm not surprised by that. But OV clearly has the better peak seasons (yes Crosby getting injured robbed us of that debate but that's unfortunate).

I don't know what EP has to do with anything, maybe you were replying to someone else? But yeah he's a great player. :thumbu:
 

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