PLAYOFF R-ON/R-OFF
I'm not re-posting the results from everyone I talked about before; see the previous thread.
Dave Keon
Season | Games | R ON | R OFF | INCREASE |
1960-61 | 5 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 50% |
1961-62 | 12 | 2.50 | 0.90 | 178% |
1962-63 | 10 | 6.00 | 1.67 | 260% |
1963-64 | 14 | 1.63 | 1.06 | 53% |
1964-65 | 6 | 1.50 | 2.25 | -33% |
1965-66 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0% |
1966-67 | 12 | 1.25 | 0.89 | 40% |
1968-69 | 4 | 0.60 | 0.09 | 560% |
1970-71 | 6 | 1.50 | 0.63 | 140% |
1971-72 | 5 | 0.60 | 0.36 | 65% |
1973-74 | 4 | 0.60 | 0.50 | 20% |
1974-75 | 7 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 175% |
1979-80 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.55 | -27% |
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Let's be honest - Keon's regular season resume is unimpressive for a potential top 100 player. But his two-way play in the postseason is nearly unparalleled. In thirteen postseasons, he outperformed his team's average ten times (with one more season being a tie) - all ten of those out-performances were by at least a 20% margin (with eight of those being by a 50% margin). Yes, a lot of the years have small samples sizes, but his consistency can't be overlooked. Among forwards with 80+ playoff games, Keon has a better out-performance ratio (R-On divided by R-Off) than any forward dating back to 1960, with the exception of Peter Forsberg.
Erik Karlsson
Season | Games | R ON | R OFF | INCREASE |
2009-10 | 6 | 0.33 | 0.91 | -63% |
2011-12 | 7 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0% |
2012-13 | 10 | 1.00 | 1.08 | -7% |
2014-15 | 6 | 0.50 | 0.71 | -30% |
2016-17 | 19 | 2.00 | 0.54 | 271% |
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Karlsson's playoff resume through his first four seasons was disappointing - two springs where he was weaker than his teammates, and two where he was roughly on par. But his 2017 playoff run was one for the ages - his numbers were similar to (but better than) Bourque in 1990. His career out-performance ratio is, believe it or not, virtually identical to Bobby Orr - though of course that's over a much smaller sample size, and his one big run covers up many weaker ones.
Jarome Iginla
Season | Games | R ON | R OFF | INCREASE |
1995-96 | 2 | 2.00 | 0.30 | 567% |
2003-04 | 26 | 2.44 | 1.00 | 144% |
2005-06 | 7 | 2.50 | 0.56 | 350% |
2006-07 | 6 | 0.50 | 0.22 | 125% |
2007-08 | 7 | 0.83 | 0.86 | -3% |
2008-09 | 6 | 0.50 | 1.67 | -70% |
2012-13 | 15 | 0.73 | 1.19 | -38% |
2013-14 | 12 | 1.00 | 1.50 | -33% |
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Strong results overall. We all know that Iginla dragged a weak team to game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals (along with Kipprusoff), but he also performed extremely well in first-round losses in the two following seasons. After that, his numbers plummet (which I found somewhat surprising - I mean, we all know 2013 and 2014 didn't work out as planned for him, but those are some ugly numbers in 2009 - and even a relative disappointment in 2008 given he was a Hart finalist). Still, overall Iginla's career numbers are strong - his out-performance ratio puts him on par with Alfredsson, Fedorov and Jagr.
Joe Thornton
Season | Games | R ON | R OFF | INCREASE |
1997-98 | 6 | #DIV/0! | 0.58 | #DIV/0! |
1998-99 | 11 | 1.17 | 1.08 | 8% |
2001-02 | 6 | 1.00 | 0.90 | 11% |
2002-03 | 5 | 0.29 | 1.00 | -71% |
2003-04 | 7 | 0.33 | 1.29 | -74% |
2005-06 | 11 | 0.50 | 1.56 | -68% |
2006-07 | 11 | 1.22 | 1.00 | 22% |
2007-08 | 13 | 1.43 | 0.86 | 67% |
2008-09 | 6 | 0.50 | 0.43 | 17% |
2009-10 | 15 | 0.48 | 1.55 | -69% |
2010-11 | 18 | 0.69 | 1.08 | -37% |
2011-12 | 5 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 500% |
2012-13 | 11 | 2.67 | 0.50 | 433% |
2013-14 | 7 | 0.14 | 1.31 | -89% |
2015-16 | 24 | 1.13 | 1.44 | -22% |
2016-17 | 4 | 0.67 | 1.00 | -33% |
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As I alluded to earlier, Thornton has an excellent regular season resume - possibly the best out of any remaining player. But he's been branded a playoff choker ever since being held scoreless in seven games at age 24 (he was definitely injured that series - I think he had some broken ribs). Thornton has had a few solid playoff runs (2008 and especially 2013 stand out), but overall his results are poor. He was below his team's average in eight of his team's sixteen playoffs (including all three of the years they made it to, or past, the conference finals). Thornton's teams, on average, have been a bit better than even when he was off the ice, but his personal R-On ratio is a weak 0.79. He's scored 123 playoff points - a significant number - but I can't help but think he's just a playoff compiler. Of the 54 forwards (1960-present) who have played in 150+ games, he has the worst R-On ratio and the 3rd worst out-performance ratio. Instead of being a shoe-in for the top 100, I have to seriously think if his playoff resume is weak enough to keep him out.
Mark Howe
Season | Games | R ON | R OFF | INCREASE |
1979-80 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.71 | -53% |
1982-83 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.50 | -50% |
1983-84 | 3 | 1.00 | 0.27 | 267% |
1984-85 | 19 | 1.58 | 0.92 | 72% |
1985-86 | 5 | 1.00 | 0.83 | 20% |
1986-87 | 26 | 1.75 | 1.00 | 75% |
1987-88 | 7 | 2.17 | 0.41 | 426% |
1988-89 | 19 | 2.08 | 0.81 | 157% |
1992-93 | 7 | 2.50 | 0.63 | 300% |
1993-94 | 6 | 1.00 | 1.54 | -35% |
1994-95 | 3 | #DIV/0! | 1.23 | #DIV/0! |
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Howe put up superb individual numbers (his career R-On is slightly better than Larry Robinson's) on teams that were, on average, below even at ES. As a result, Howe has the highest out-performance ratio of
any defenseman in playoff history (minimum 100 games). Even if we lower the threshold to 50 games, he's only passed by five blueliners, and only one of them (Carl Brewer) would be taking tough matchups the way Howe did (I don't think that's true of, say, Janne Laukkanen and Garth Butcher). What also stands out is how crucial he was during each of his team's three longest playoff runs - again he posted superb numbers on teams that were, at best, even at ES. I was a bit of a skeptic when it came to Howe (I think highly of him, but I wasn't convinced he should be a shoe-in for the top 100), but this certainly boosts his case.
Norm Ullman
Season | Games | R ON | R OFF | INCREASE |
1959-60 | 6 | 0.43 | 0.90 | -52% |
1960-61 | 11 | 0.71 | 1.00 | -29% |
1962-63 | 11 | 0.93 | 1.09 | -14% |
1963-64 | 14 | 1.09 | 0.76 | 43% |
1964-65 | 7 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 33% |
1965-66 | 12 | 1.00 | 1.50 | -33% |
1968-69 | 4 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 44% |
1970-71 | 6 | 0.80 | 1.00 | -20% |
1971-72 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.63 | -60% |
1973-74 | 4 | 0.50 | 0.55 | -8% |
1974-75 | 7 | - | 0.64 | -100% |
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Perhaps the biggest disappointment here. That's not to say that he's objectively worse than, say, Joe Thornton, but I always thought of Ullman as a good two-way player. His R-on is poor; a bit weaker than Thornton, Mahovlich, Selanne and H. Sedin. His teams, in general, were fairly weak too, so his relative performance isn't terrible (around the level of Robitaille, Federko and Mogilny) but it's still well below even.
Patrick Kane
Season | Games | R ON | R OFF | INCREASE |
2008-09 | 16 | 0.53 | 1.19 | -56% |
2009-10 | 22 | 0.91 | 1.60 | -43% |
2010-11 | 7 | 0.75 | 1.63 | -54% |
2011-12 | 6 | 1.33 | 0.70 | 90% |
2012-13 | 23 | 1.47 | 1.31 | 12% |
2013-14 | 19 | 1.38 | 0.88 | 58% |
2014-15 | 23 | 1.54 | 1.09 | 41% |
2015-16 | 7 | 0.83 | 1.13 | -26% |
2016-17 | 4 | - | 0.11 | -100% |
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Just as I was getting on board the Patrick Kane bandwagon, I see these results. They're not terrible (Kane still has a slightly positive ES ratio overall), but he's well behind the rest of his team. Of the Blackhawks' three main stairs, Keith has by far the best ES ratio and Kane has by far the worst. His out-performance ratio falls right in the range of Ullman, Robitaille, Federko, etc. One argument in his favour - his results are very strong during that dominant stretch from 2013 to 2015 (two Cups and a conference finals).
Peter Stastny
Season | Games | R ON | R OFF | INCREASE |
1980-81 | 5 | 0.67 | 0.55 | 22% |
1981-82 | 12 | 1.11 | 0.64 | 74% |
1982-83 | 4 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 500% |
1983-84 | 9 | 1.50 | 0.81 | 85% |
1984-85 | 18 | 1.13 | 0.83 | 36% |
1985-86 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.60 | -72% |
1986-87 | 13 | 1.23 | 0.81 | 52% |
1989-90 | 6 | 0.83 | 0.73 | 15% |
1990-91 | 7 | 0.60 | 1.11 | -46% |
1991-92 | 7 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 10% |
1992-93 | 5 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 100% |
1993-94 | 4 | - | 1.17 | -100% |
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Stastny falls under the "pleasant surprise" category. He generally played on weak teams (only made it out of the first round 4 times, and the second round twice). His R-On ratio is just below even but given the poor quality of his team, that represents a significant out-performance. Of the 356 forwards played in 80+ playoff games from 1960 onwards, Stastny had the 5th weakest team R-Off. His out-performance ratio, surprisingly, is on par with Beliveau, Lafleur, Kurri and Datsyuk.
Serge Savard
Season | Games | R ON | R OFF | INCREASE |
1967-68 | 6 | #DIV/0! | 1.84 | #DIV/0! |
1968-69 | 14 | 1.17 | 1.67 | -30% |
1971-72 | 6 | 1.00 | 0.70 | 43% |
1972-73 | 17 | 1.16 | 1.93 | -40% |
1973-74 | 6 | 0.55 | 1.29 | -58% |
1974-75 | 11 | 1.15 | 1.75 | -34% |
1975-76 | 13 | 2.88 | 1.11 | 159% |
1976-77 | 14 | 1.92 | 3.50 | -45% |
1977-78 | 15 | 3.63 | 1.00 | 263% |
1978-79 | 16 | 1.44 | 1.38 | 5% |
1979-80 | 2 | - | 1.60 | -100% |
1980-81 | 3 | - | 0.57 | -100% |
1981-82 | 4 | 0.63 | 0.30 | 108% |
1982-83 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0% |
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Savard's career ratio is almost exactly even. His personal results are very strong (almost identical to Lidstrom, Pronger and Chara), but his teams were consistently excellent (the only defensemen with 100+ playoff games with a better R-Off environment were, basically, all of the Edmonton Oilers, players who were on the 1970s Habs, and Brian Rafalski). Savard's results are basically indistinguishable from longtime teammate Guy Lapointe (keeping in mind Savard had tougher match-ups and contributed more on the PK, while Lapointe contributed more with the man advantage). Another person who put up basically identical R-On and R-Off numbers - Kevin Lowe. I don't think Savard's numbers tell us much that we don't already know - Savard played at a very high level, but it's tricky to disentangle that from the strength of his team.
TABLE WITH CAREER NUMBERS
PLAYER | GAMES | R-ON | R-OFF | RATIO |
Mark Howe | 101 | 1.54 | 0.87 | 0.76 |
Dave Keon | 92 | 1.24 | 0.74 | 0.67 |
Erik Karlsson | 48 | 1.19 | 0.77 | 0.54 |
Bill Gadsby | 44 | 1.12 | 0.79 | 0.42 |
Duncan Keith | 126 | 1.30 | 0.96 | 0.35 |
Peter Stastny | 93 | 0.97 | 0.75 | 0.29 |
Jarome Iginla | 81 | 1.13 | 0.94 | 0.21 |
Brian Leetch | 95 | 1.02 | 0.88 | 0.15 |
Eric Lindros | 53 | 1.18 | 1.12 | 0.05 |
Martin St. Louis | 107 | 1.01 | 1.02 | (0.00) |
Serge Savard | 130 | 1.35 | 1.38 | (0.02) |
Patrick Kane | 127 | 1.04 | 1.12 | (0.07) |
Norm Ullman | 87 | 0.73 | 0.79 | (0.08) |
Joe Thornton | 160 | 0.79 | 1.05 | (0.25) |
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