Confirmed with Link: Tom Wilson re-signs 2years 2 mil AAV

[Corby78]

A little steep for my blood. Hopefully this is finally the year he really takes a step up. But I'm not holding my breath.

 

[txpd]

I would have thought the fact that Tom Wilson did precisely nothing in the playoffs would have brought out the haters in droves.

I think Kuznetsov and Burakovsky doing nothing eased the stress on Wilson for doing nothing.

 

[twabby]

I have no problem with the term, but could he really not be had for $1.5M? Every little bit counts at this point.

Orlov and Johansson are going to cost close to $7.5M combined most likely, leaving a paltry $1.3M in space. If the Caps don't have a trade up their sleeve it will be a rather disappointing offseason.

 

[Hivemind]

I have no problem with the term, but could he really not be had for $1.5M? Every little bit counts at this point.

Orlov and Johansson are going to cost close to $7.5M combined most likely, leaving a paltry $1.3M in space. If the Caps don't have a trade up their sleeve it will be a rather disappointing offseason.

This is a pretty clear indicator to me that gaining Lars Eller and subtracting Chimera (and Richards/Latta) was the off-season. Not pinching pennies on this contract means they aren't terribly concerned with fitting an additional player onto the roster. Nothing more than very small pieces from here on out.

 

[txpd]

I have no problem with the term, but could he really not be had for $1.5M? Every little bit counts at this point.

Orlov and Johansson are going to cost close to $7.5M combined most likely, leaving a paltry $1.3M in space. If the Caps don't have a trade up their sleeve it will be a rather disappointing offseason.

I think I've been saying this, unpopular as it has been, that it sounded to me like MacLellan's intent was to acquire one top 9 forward, make a priority of getting Wilson right for the top 9, and counting on Orlov and Schmidt to grow for their weak playoff performance that followed their quality regular season.

They got Eller. That's the one top 9. They sure may trade Johansson or Winnik or even Orlov, but nothing else happens unless they do

Ov Backstrom Oshie
Johansson Kuzy Williams
Burt Eller Wilson
Winnik Beagle Galiev

 

[g00n]

Once again, how does the market come into play? The Capitals are under no obligation to award him the same amount as Jason Zucker. Wilson has no arbitration rights. Wilson's negotiations with other teams are limited to offer sheets. Without that leverage, why should the Capitals give Wilson the same payment as Zucker?

That also completely ignores that Zucker scored 21 goals the year before (and 13 this past year).

So does that also mean they're under no obligation to award other players, like Mojo, deals based on comparables with similar measurables in the market?

 

[Raikkonen]

From 90-9-43 pool Wilson is the least questionable player. 2M sounds a bit worse than we hoped for but isn't terrible. There is a clear bottom-6 RW role for him, huge pluses and some potential to up his scoring.

Good that they did this first.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

So does that also mean they're under no obligation to award other players, like Mojo, deals based on comparables with similar measurables in the market?

With 42 goals in 169 games, how on earth is Jason Zucker a comparable?

I doubt Wilson has 42 goals by the end of this contract.

 

[Langway]

Trotz has mentioned signing a veteran forward on the cheap so they're not done even if they don't move out salary. Plus they're bound to sign some players for Hershey, some of which could perhaps challenge for a spot as Collins did for a short spell. We'll see if said veteran is more than just competition for Galiev for a regular spot or someone that could maybe compete for third-line time. Galiev isn't going to develop much playing with a couple grinders nor is he suited to play like them. I think he's top nine insurance and is useful in that regard only to the extent the Hershey options aren't ready.

Trotz also again alluded to trade possibilities that happen to come up out of nowhere at times. MacLellan is definitely gauging interest on 90/9 IMO and perhaps others depending on what's out there and demands. The bulk of the team is in place but MacLellan said they'd tweak a bit and that's not over.

 

[hockeykicker]

Again, when has gmbm not done something he said he would? If he said a depth/bottom guy and a 3c then he is gonna get them both

 

[txpd]

I am sure they will add a penalty killer backup as the spare forward.
Galiev will develop as well on the 4th line as Kuznetsov and Burakovsky did. He will certain develop better playing than not playing.

Production obviously will not be there until he gets real minutes with scoring players as with 65 and 92. that time should come at some point

 

[Hivemind]

So does that also mean they're under no obligation to award other players, like Mojo, deals based on comparables with similar measurables in the market?

Johansson has arbitration rights. The arbitrator can award him a contract similar to those given to comparable players.

 

[g00n]

With 42 goals in 169 games, how on earth is Jason Zucker a comparable?

I doubt Wilson has 42 goals by the end of this contract.

You mean to tell me that X points in a contract year isn't a measurable that people use when comparing contracts? Because my point is that's what I've seen, including in discussion of Mojo's comparables the past 2 years.

So let's be needlessly technically correct and state that the Caps are not "obligated" to bow to these comparable stats in the market in awarding contracts...but no team is ever obligated to do so. It's just how these deals get hammered out.

If we're trying to explain the current contract in terms of the market, it's right there in the tweet above. Deals centered around comparable stats in contract years carry weight in negotiations, in part because they get brought up in arbitration. Wilson may not have any arbitration rights at the moment but he will someday, and if he's been underpaid per any players with comparable stats it will probably be brought up to show that he'd been playing at a discount (in order to justify an even bigger contract).

Johansson has arbitration rights. The arbitrator can award him a contract similar to those given to comparable players.

See above.

 

[Langway]

Galiev will develop as well on the 4th line as Kuznetsov and Burakovsky did. He will certain develop better playing than not playing.

That was never the plan with either player. It was a temporary measure, not something they had in mind in the off-season. IMO Galiev will need to earn a spot on the roster. He needs to show some flashes of the goods for investment to be worthwhile. Otherwise, like I said, he's just cheap filler/stopgap.

 

[Hivemind]

Historical "market" context for Tom Wilson's contract. This analysis matches what I've been saying with my comparables. Caps overpaid.
http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2016/06/30/assessing-the-value-of-tom-wilsons-contract/

You mean to tell me that X points in a contract year isn't a measurable that people use when comparing contracts? Because my point is that's what I've seen, including in discussion of Mojo's comparables the past 2 years.

So let's be needlessly technically correct and state that the Caps are not "obligated" to bow to these comparable stats in the market in awarding contracts...but no team is ever obligated to do so. It's just how these deals get hammered out.

If we're trying to explain the current contract in terms of the market, it's right there in the tweet above. Deals centered around comparable stats in contract years carry weight in negotiations, in part because they get brought up in arbitration. Wilson may not have any arbitration rights at the moment but he will someday, and if he's been underpaid per any players with comparable stats it will probably be brought up to show that he'd been playing at a discount (in order to justify an even bigger contract)

A smaller deal would not have been underpaying him.
But more importantly, the bolded is not an admitted argument during salary arbitration in the NHL. See disallowed arguments in the link below, specifically "Prior offers or the history of negotiation between the club and that player":
http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2013/7/12/4514168/cba-arbitration-boolsheet

 

[Calicaps]

I have no doubt GMBM is kicking tires on some UFA options. He'd be stupid not to. Whether he finds someone he wants enough to trade another player or adjust his plans is tbd, but he doesn't strike me as a guy who doesn't explore his options, even if he presumes things will end up a different way.

 

[WeThreeKings]

I don't like this deal. I don't believe in overpaying for 4th liners. Wilson is a physical presence but he doesn't finish chances and I feel like his lack of discipline (or the calls for the optics of his hits) do more harm than good.

 

[txpd]

I don't like this deal. I don't believe in overpaying for 4th liners. Wilson is a physical presence but he doesn't finish chances and I feel like his lack of discipline (or the calls for the optics of his hits) do more harm than good.

The Caps pay Beagle $1.75m. But the Caps see Wilson differently than you do.

 

[g00n]

Historical "market" context for Tom Wilson's contract. This analysis matches what I've been saying with my comparables. Caps overpaid.
http://www.russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2016/06/30/assessing-the-value-of-tom-wilsons-contract/



A smaller deal would not have been underpaying him.
But more importantly, the bolded is not an admitted argument during salary arbitration in the NHL. See disallowed arguments in the link below, specifically "Prior offers or the history of negotiation between the club and that player":
http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2013/7/12/4514168/cba-arbitration-boolsheet

Prior offers and negotiation history are not the same as prior stats and prior dollars. It just means they can't dredge up previous communications related to the current disputed deal and they have to put forth a comprehensive, "new" case for their side within the established "allowed" parameters, for the benefit of the arbitrator.

Look at the "allowed" column in the link you provided. It permits overall and past performance as well as comparison to the comparable player, including compensation. So it would absolutely be possible to cite past stats vs dollars for the disputed player vs the comparable player, as well as several other factors including contribution to the club, length of service, "heart/grit", and so forth. And it would be possible in a few years to show disparity in pay vs performance vs that comparable player, provided the comparable contract was established after the disputed RFA hits group 2 (so over the next 2 years).

Unless there's some legal mumbo jumbo that's left out of what I've read so far.


But none of that is even needed to prove the point that "market" was a factor here. The RMNB link cites other estimations that have this 2M number as correct or even low, and the article specifies that the author's own analysis finds the comparable difference too small to actually be concerned with: 1% of the cap higher than some comparables listed, but also the most NHL games played in that group and tied for the youngest.

 

[Calicaps]

I have no problem with this deal... yet. Wilson is now on a prove-it contract. If he doesn't improve as a player, this will be his ceiling.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Bad deal. Dress it up, he's a 4th liner. (And NO Tex....just saying it so "he's a 3rd liner" doesn't make it so)

Now Caps have TWO 2m plus 4th liners. First move I've questioned GMBM on.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The Caps pay Beagle $1.75m. But the Caps see Wilson differently than you do.

6m 4th line. I don't like it

 

[WeThreeKings]

6m 4th line. I don't like it

I am personally of the mind that you invest every dollar you can into your top 9, top 4 D and starting goalie. Solid pro scouting should take care of the niche guys, finding guys for your bottom line that can win face-offs, kill penalties, bring a specific skill.

We've seen Chicago win the cup with 3 D.. Pittsburgh win the cup with 3 lines and their cheap role players making very little cash but filling a niche.

2 million for Wilson and Beagle isn't crippling, but it's still 2 million in total that might cost you being unable to take on a contract or outbid on UFA

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

I would trade Wilson at this point, he has a bad contract and isn't worth his contract nor is he worth protecting in the expansion draft. Try to trade him this season/offseason

 

[Roughing]

I like TWil and still think he can become a real nice part so I'm glad he's sticking around... but that's too much. Kid's a 4th liner and should not be making more than Beagle. Caps lost $500K in space on this overpay. BMac has been good but this is a mistake (though nothing like the big Orpik miss).