Prospect Info: Tom Willander: 11th Overall 2023 Draft (Rogle BK J20) - Part 02

[Vector]

Canucks fans are all team Sweden now?

Now?

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

Canucks fans are all team Sweden now?

Now?
I have more faith in a bald Swedish man with thick frame glasses than my own father

 

[Raistlin]

over the years I believe I've been team Sweden as much as team Canada. Pretty much since the Ohlund draft +1 when my teen-aged cousin introduced me to it.

 

[IComeInPeace]

Terrier posted this in the main prospects section:

The Terrier Hockey Fan Blog

Welcome to The Terrier Hockey Fan Blog where BU hockey fans have a digital finger on the pulse of Terrier hockey present, past and future. Along with links to game accounts, stats, video highlights, interviews, feature articles and recruiting news, we also provide original articles on memorable...

terrierhockey.blogspot.com

”The Canucks got an absolute stud coming to Vancouver in a few years.”

^ from the blog post

 

[Breakers]

BU never played BC yet which was a joke of a schedule
They could have marketed the sh/t out of that rivalry, and the schedule makers just mailed it in.

That freshman line for the USA at BC is absolutely flying right now (Perrault, Smith, Leonard))

Willander has talked about facing them in the NCAA
He'll be facing them at the WJC before he gets them in the NCAA

 

[clay]

Could so badly use a fully developed Willander on the roster right now. Nearly impossible to get this type of player (all-situations RHD) without heavy overpayment unless acquiring through the draft.

 

[VanJack]

Pretty hard to argue with the last couple of drafts......From all reports Wilander is on track to be that rare breed--at legit top-four d-man who is a rare shooter from the right side.

And Lekkerimaki may need a half or even a full season in Abbotsford, but clearly projects as a scoring winger at the NHL-level. The release on his shot is already NHL-calibre.

 

[1440]

Some initial tracking data from Laasi Alanen covering Willander's season so far:


I would take this with a massive grain of salt since his transition and defensive play has been far better than his offensive play in my viewings. That said, the shots vs shot-assists numbers make sense and I think also explain his defensive stats. He has done a lot of deferring to his team-mates thus far, which applies not only to his offensive mentality (pass instead of shoot), but also to in zone defense and transition. His strongest suit is off-puck rush defense, which involves tying up his man, and allowing his partner to make the strip or retrieval. When he has played with Hutson he has also naturally deferred much of zone exit/entries to him, passing within rather than across zones. It would be interesting to see his entries against stats, which are not shown, since that is what he is best at.

Here is Hutson's card for context:

 

[credulous]

I would take this with a massive grain of salt since his transition and defensive play has been far better than his offensive play in my viewings. That said, the shots vs shot-assists numbers make sense and I think also explain his defensive stats. He has done a lot of deferring to his team-mates thus far, which applies not only to his offensive mentality (pass instead of shoot), but also to in zone defense and transition. His strongest suit is off-puck rush defense, which involves tying up his man, and allowing his partner to make the strip or retrieval. When he has played with Hutson he has also naturally deferred much of zone exit/entries to him, passing within rather than across zones. It would be interesting to see his entries against stats, which are not shown, since that is what he is best at.

i'm a little suprised by the data but not that much. he's a frustratingly passive player so far. he's an immense athletic talent but he uses that talent to cheat on plays and not execute like he should. i think his defense looks better than it is because he closes on opposing puck carriers so effortlessly but he really shouldn't need to be closing on them as much as he does

his offensive data doesn't surprise me at all though. he rarely passes and takes too many shots

 

[Zarpan]

his offensive data doesn't surprise me at all though. he rarely passes and takes too many shots

Doesn't that data suggest the opposite?

 

[Diversification]

i'm a little suprised by the data but not that much. he's a frustratingly passive player so far. he's an immense athletic talent but he uses that talent to cheat on plays and not execute like he should. i think his defense looks better than it is because he closes on opposing puck carriers so effortlessly but he really shouldn't need to be closing on them as much as he does

his offensive data doesn't surprise me at all though. he rarely passes and takes too many shots

Are you surprised by how Lane Hutson is killing it using the same analysis? Because in the limited BU games I’ve taken in (3 this season) it looks like he has a lot flaws to his game and that it won’t be a smooth transition to the pros for him.

 

[Hoglander]

How the hell does it make sense for Hutson's overall to be 99, while sporting a defensive rating of 45? Not sure what's going on with those numbers. And to be rated better defensively than Willander? Eye test tells me Willander smothers opponents, while Hutson is practically allergic to physical board battles.

 

[Vector]

How the hell does it make sense for Hutson's overall to be 99, while sporting a defensive rating of 45? Not sure what's going on with those numbers. And to be rated better defensively than Willander? Eye test tells me Willander smothers opponents, while Hutson is practically allergic to physical board battles.

Small offensive defensemen that can’t play defense syndrome. With a lot of small offensive defenders dominating right now, they are getting overrated as prospects. It’s a very large margin of error.

 

[ahmon]

any time you see stats, you should ask many questions before you assume red is bad and blue is good.

how are puck battles /60 measured? so someone is watching shift to shift and jotting down every time there is a puck battle?

is it a puck battle if Willander gets to the puck much faster than the opposition? so if hes slower then it becomes a puck battle?

are dz retrievals /60 even a bad stat? If the other team is scared of dumping it on your side, naturally you will have less dz retrievals? what if you are contantly attacking?

etc.

got to be very careful with these so call stats, nevermind ones with what 15 game sample size in a lower skill level league than the NHL, meaning games can even be more up and down.

 

[Billy Kvcmu]

deleted

 

[credulous]

Are you surprised by how Lane Hutson is killing it using the same analysis? Because in the limited BU games I’ve taken in (3 this season) it looks like he has a lot flaws to his game and that it won’t be a smooth transition to the pros for him.

no, hutson is great. he gets beat in his own zone but he's slippery with the puck and almost never gives up the puck once he's got it. i dunno if he's got elite nhl potential but he's one of the best dmen in the ncaa. he's something like justin schultz on the low end or maybe quinn hughes or brandt clarke on the high end

willander has way better tools but he's the second best dman on that pairing right now

 

[MS]

Those sorts of graphs are a plague on the sport right now.

 

[Breakers]

That defensive rating is generous for Hutson.
Him and McCarthy get f^cking TORCHED at even strength

I mean Willander has started some games recently with him
but still
he gets caught up ice more than any player on BU, and takes 1 minute plus shifts consistently

Morrow, Buium, Casey, Hutson are the best transition defense in the NCAA.
But nobody gives up the sheer volume of odd-man rishes against like Hutson

If you had a clock to measure the minutes a d-man spends in the offensive zone ""beneath the hashmarks"", so essentially deep in the offensive zone. it would be Hutson and nobody would be even close.
Offensive d-man obviously are that deep on rush attempts, but he sets up camp down there, and Pandolfo allows him that type of free-reign.

 

[Diversification]

That defensive rating is generous for Hutson.
Him and McCarthy get f^cking TORCHED at even strength

I mean Willander has started some games recently with him
but still
he gets caught up ice more than any player on BU, and takes 1 minute plus shifts consistently

Morrow, Buium, Casey, Hutson are the best transition defense in the NCAA.
But nobody gives up the sheer volume of odd-man rishes against like Hutson

If you had a clock to measure the minutes a d-man spends in the offensive zone ""beneath the hashmarks"", so essentially deep in the offensive zone. it would be Hutson and nobody would be even close.
Offensive d-man obviously are that deep on rush attempts, but he sets up camp down there, and Pandolfo allows him that type of free-reign.

NCAA's answer to Sandis Ozolinsh. Yep, pretty much what I've observed as well. Except that Hutson is 5'10" and Ozolinsh is 6'3".

 

[sting101]

Those sorts of graphs are a plague on the sport right now.

Yes i hate to say it because i love a lot of the work Eliteprospects does and enjoy a lot of their content but those graphs are mostly useless if your looking to make some kind of translation to next levels.

Wouldn't say Lassi is one of their better content creaters or scouts either but i dont want to make it a personal attack for poor looking results from Willander and this is just another stage of building their website/business so i can appreciate that

Definitely some weird category selections and many loose ends between data collection vs context and how that is averaged up or down into percentages. What parameters are we using? How much ice time do they have to have and what are the strengths of competition. Seems like you need a mountain of vetted data before averaging NO? I wouldn't trust a lot of the NHLs let alone NCAA

In BU games just like junior you see lower levels of IceQ (positioning timing ability to receive passes and execution) vs NHLers. Top talent usually excels with other top talent to read off and distribute pucks to vs players that slow these things down for them. Adds a lot of volatility to results

Ultimately I just dont see a lot of value in them but are fun to look at i guess

 

[credulous]

hutson is gonna make a lot of you look silly in 2-3 years

 

[Diversification]

hutson is gonna make a lot of you look silly in 2-3 years

Not before Truscott does first am I right?

 

[Vector]

hutson is gonna make a lot of you look silly in 2-3 years

I ain't going to remember anyway.

 

[credulous]

Not before Truscott does first am I right?

no truscott isn't a sure thing. i really like him and think he's the canucks second best prospect after willander but he could just as easily turn out to be a guy who is just too average to succeed

hutson is going to be a star

 

[sting101]

hutson is gonna make a lot of you look silly in 2-3 years

How so? Looks like he's an abysmal defensive player with an electric skating and puckhandling package at the NCAA level. What makes you think he can clean that up so easy because he makes a lot of mistakes that at 5'9 and 160lbs isn't gonna buy him much leeway in the NHL unlike a guy like Hughes who was as cerebral and mistake free as they come in the NCAA and still had hurdles to overcome.