Prospect Info: Tom Willander: 11th Overall 2023 Draft (Rogle BK J20) - Part 02

logan5

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This wasn't directed at me.

2014: Virtanen, McCann, Demko, Tryamkin. Forsling should be considered a good draft. Obviously we didn't make the best pick there and we didn't get much from the draft apart from Demko but still that's a good draft. We did come away with a franchise goalie which has really only happened in Canucks history in 2004 with Schneider.

2015: Boeser and Gaudette. Boeser is 8th in goals scored in his draft class (those ahead were drafted ahead of him). Maybe Kaprizov and Hintz pass him eventually but they obviously ranked lower at the time.

2016: Absolutely disastrous although Lockwood should be considered a decent pick.

2017: Petey makes up for everything and is an absolute home run. There's really no way to do better here. Based on reports, if the Canucks had the #1 overall pick they would have either picked Makar or Petey. In hindsight the later picks were okay.

2018: Looks like we'll end up with only Hughes in this draft. But again, absolute home run. Best defenseman in Canucks history and one of the best Canucks ever. I know there are those who will say that the previous regime's GM wouldn't have drafted Petey but that same GM would have no doubt drafted Hughes with a higher pick.

2019: Bypassing Boldy/Caulfield for Podkolzin is a mistake. But they did draft Hoglander (despite cricitims from many posters here for changing the draft list) which is looking like a great pick. I think that overall it's a solid draft. Silovs and McDonough has/had good potential for a later round pick.

2020: A nothing draft. Guess we should have picked Laferriere? I don't think Jurmo was an unreasonable pick though.

2021: The 1st round targers were Johnson and Clarke reportedly. Wouldn't have been terrible if they were the picks. We picked Klimovich over much higher rated Stankoven and Raty. We have Raty now but Stankoven looks like a stud. I typically excuse the team for byping a 5'8" player. Sigh...
What makes the drafting from the last regime better than average, imo of course, are the huge homeruns in Pettersson, Hughes, and Demko There are some other great draft picks, but those 3 are players that are very hard to get. In a redraft, Hughes goes #1, Demko goes #1, and Pettersson goes #1 or 2. Not many teams have pulled that kind of drafting.
 

Aqualung

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Nov 16, 2007
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Changed my mind? No. I still would have preferred Benson/Perreault at 11 (no hindsight). That said, if they were going to move off of BPA/best bet to succeed, Willander was the right alternative.

I would wait on that all-situations expectation for him though (unless you meant just ES and PK).
I was more speaking about ES and PK
 
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Hoglander

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What makes the drafting from the last regime better than average, imo of course, are the huge homeruns in Pettersson, Hughes, and Demko There are some other great draft picks, but those 3 are players that are very hard to get. In a redraft, Hughes goes #1, Demko goes #1, and Pettersson goes #1 or 2. Not many teams have pulled that kind of drafting.
Makar goes 1st ov before EP, and Demko is not going ahead of Pastrnak or Draisaitl, and maybe a few others like Nylander/Point/Larkin etc

Still great drafting to pull those franchise players with the picks they had.
 
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Regal

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Makar goes 1st ov before EP, and Demko is not going ahead of Pastrnak or Draisaitl, and maybe a few others like Nylander/Point/Larkin etc

Still great drafting to pull those franchise players with the picks they had.

Yea, Demko’s good, but he’s likely not even the first goalie taken that year (and probably not the second either)
 

MarkusNaslund19

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I know some folks here, in retrospect, had different prospects they preferred at the 11th spot than Willander. One season later, anyone changed their mind? I know Wood and Benson were popular choices. Hindsight maybe Perrault enters the equation.

After this season I do feel more comfortable with the selection (even though I wanted Benson)— I see the kind of player he could become which is an all situation minute-muncher. Highly valuable especially on the right side.
I wanted Benson at the time, but we knew just before the draft that we wouldn't pick him.

Failing him I was okay with Willander and having watched a bit of shift-by-shift stuff I actually liked Willander more than Reinbacher. I think at the time I would have taken Simashev over Willander (he went 6th), but I was really happy with the Willander pick given the circumstances and think it's borne out to be a great pick.

Benson is a fantastic young player, but if Willander becomes even a decent #3 (and I think he can be a good number 2) then for us to regret passing on Benson he basically needs to become Mitch Marner or Brad Marchand and I don't think he's quite that good.

I think he's a guy who will probably score in the 70's or so most years of his prime while being useful everywhere on the ice. That's an important asset for a team, but not as important as a big, fast, all situations RD who can shutdown just about any top line like an RD Jonas Brodin.

There could also be more offence in Willander than we think, though he seems a bit uncomfortable with the puck in his feet from my viewings which makes me think he might be a bit more meat and potatoes with the odd sublime flash of skill.
 

Canuck Luck

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What makes the drafting from the last regime better than average, imo of course, are the huge homeruns in Pettersson, Hughes, and Demko There are some other great draft picks, but those 3 are players that are very hard to get. In a redraft, Hughes goes #1, Demko goes #1, and Pettersson goes #1 or 2. Not many teams have pulled that kind of drafting.
lay off the Canucks kool-aid. Theres a good chance Demko sint even the first or 2nd goalie off the board let alone 1st overall ahead of guys like Draisaitl/Pastrnak/Nylander/Point. Pettersson is an obvious #2 in his draft class at this point and time.

Being able to hit on 2 top 10 picks + a goalie when more often than not the best ones start going in the 2nd round or later, doesn't make up for the piss poor drafting everywhere else.
 
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VanJack

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I wanted Benson at the time, but we knew just before the draft that we wouldn't pick him.

Failing him I was okay with Willander and having watched a bit of shift-by-shift stuff I actually liked Willander more than Reinbacher. I think at the time I would have taken Simashev over Willander (he went 6th), but I was really happy with the Willander pick given the circumstances and think it's borne out to be a great pick.

Benson is a fantastic young player, but if Willander becomes even a decent #3 (and I think he can be a good number 2) then for us to regret passing on Benson he basically needs to become Mitch Marner or Brad Marchand and I don't think he's quite that good.

I think he's a guy who will probably score in the 70's or so most years of his prime while being useful everywhere on the ice. That's an important asset for a team, but not as important as a big, fast, all situations RD who can shutdown just about any top line like an RD Jonas Brodin.

There could also be more offence in Willander than we think, though he seems a bit uncomfortable with the puck in his feet from my viewings which makes me think he might be a bit more meat and potatoes with the odd sublime flash of skill.
Even in the entry draft, 'position' matters. Centers and potentially impact d-men always have a higher currency than wingers.

As talented as he is, Zach Benson is listed at 5'10" and 170; while Wilander is a 6'1 right-shot defender with close to elite level skating skills. At this point in their evolution and given the holes on their back-end, the Canucks have to pick the d-man every time.
 

AwesomeInTheory

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This is all just bullshit.
Well, thanks for prefacing your post so I know how to respond accordingly.

My point is that if you are purporting to count something, you need a reasonable criteria for what that thing is. If you don't, you aren't counting it, or almost counting it, or counting it well enough for a certain purpose.

My point is you don't understand why I did what I did and, again, you're contorting what I did into something it wasn't intended to be.

It's not a matter of degree. You're either counting something or you aren't. If you aren't, the result isn't quick and dirty, or close enough -- it's nothing.
Do you honestly think that going through the top 10 draft picks with a fine tooth comb over 18 drafts that the results will change dramatically? Or will the fact that picks 'busting' isn't a widespread phenomenon hold up?

Does Cam Barker and Nail Yakupov drastically alter my point or is it minor pedantic quibbling?

I don't have to sit down and do 8 hours of analyzing draft picks and researching them when the general assertion is true (it's hard to f*** up the higher you go -- something which you apparently agreed upon.) Especially when it's being done to clown on someone who never substantiates their claims.


You purported to count all the busts drafted in the top 5 and didn't count several of them,

I never said this or claimed this.

which if I remember correctly

You didn't. I was tracking all top 10 draft picks who played 200 games or less as my criteria because I had a few minutes to kill before I was running off to meet up with someone. The 'top 5' thing was something I noted from what I had done, it wasn't what I was setting out to do, which was clown on someone who makes up shit consistently.

This is at least the 2nd, possibly 3rd, time I've corrected you on this delusion.

would have constituted a significant fraction of the final number and completely changed the result.

Yes, if different rules and criteria were used things would be different. Groundbreaking stuff.

That's not a limited or qualified success, it's misinformation.

So what does attributing shit I didn't say fall under in your rulebook?

Pointing this out isn't personal, and the fact that I'm doing now and not to someone else at some other time doesn't mean anything.

I never said it was personal, I said it's really weird how you're latching onto one person making (in your estimation) bullshit claims, and if you're the self-appointed moderator of truth and champion against misinformation, why you aren't taking an equal and applied approach to everything that's been said in the thread.

I'll ask again, but am not holding my breath for an answer:

Do you agree or disagree that it becomes increasingly harder to f*** up a 1st round selection the higher you go in the draft?

How drastically do you think things would change if I (because god forbid you do it) do a deep dive on every single top 10 draft pick and would it change my original assertion?

Or are you just going to make shit up, ignore what I've said and label it 'bullshit' attribute things I didn't say to me while claiming I'm providing disinformation?

Dude calm down. This isn't The Medical Review Board, it's a hockey forum. You are taking this stuff way too seriously.

That's, uh, sorta my point. Glad you were able to comprehend it.
 
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AwesomeInTheory

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Aug 21, 2015
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This wasn't directed at me.

2014: Virtanen, McCann, Demko, Tryamkin. Forsling should be considered a good draft. Obviously we didn't make the best pick there and we didn't get much from the draft apart from Demko but still that's a good draft. We did come away with a franchise goalie which has really only happened in Canucks history in 2004 with Schneider.

2015: Boeser and Gaudette. Boeser is 8th in goals scored in his draft class (those ahead were drafted ahead of him). Maybe Kaprizov and Hintz pass him eventually but they obviously ranked lower at the time.

2016: Absolutely disastrous although Lockwood should be considered a decent pick.

2017: Petey makes up for everything and is an absolute home run. There's really no way to do better here. Based on reports, if the Canucks had the #1 overall pick they would have either picked Makar or Petey. In hindsight the later picks were okay.

2018: Looks like we'll end up with only Hughes in this draft. But again, absolute home run. Best defenseman in Canucks history and one of the best Canucks ever. I know there are those who will say that the previous regime's GM wouldn't have drafted Petey but that same GM would have no doubt drafted Hughes with a higher pick.

2019: Bypassing Boldy/Caulfield for Podkolzin is a mistake. But they did draft Hoglander (despite cricitims from many posters here for changing the draft list) which is looking like a great pick. I think that overall it's a solid draft. Silovs and McDonough has/had good potential for a later round pick.

2020: A nothing draft. Guess we should have picked Laferriere? I don't think Jurmo was an unreasonable pick though.

2021: The 1st round targers were Johnson and Clarke reportedly. Wouldn't have been terrible if they were the picks. We picked Klimovich over much higher rated Stankoven and Raty. We have Raty now but Stankoven looks like a stud. I typically excuse the team for byping a 5'8" player. Sigh...

What makes this 'above average'?

Also funny how bandy isn't giving this the hairy eyeball.
 
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Bleach Clean

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Aug 9, 2006
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I wanted Benson at the time, but we knew just before the draft that we wouldn't pick him.

Failing him I was okay with Willander and having watched a bit of shift-by-shift stuff I actually liked Willander more than Reinbacher. I think at the time I would have taken Simashev over Willander (he went 6th), but I was really happy with the Willander pick given the circumstances and think it's borne out to be a great pick.

Benson is a fantastic young player, but if Willander becomes even a decent #3 (and I think he can be a good number 2) then for us to regret passing on Benson he basically needs to become Mitch Marner or Brad Marchand and I don't think he's quite that good.

I think he's a guy who will probably score in the 70's or so most years of his prime while being useful everywhere on the ice. That's an important asset for a team, but not as important as a big, fast, all situations RD who can shutdown just about any top line like an RD Jonas Brodin.

There could also be more offence in Willander than we think, though he seems a bit uncomfortable with the puck in his feet from my viewings which makes me think he might be a bit more meat and potatoes with the odd sublime flash of skill.


I don't think the degree of difference has to be that stark for one to regret passing on Benson. Even if his numbers don't achieve elite status (Marchand, Marner), a 70~ point true all-situations player (includes PP) is not as common as a decent #3 dman. There might be 30ish players that do this league-wide (no spot duty), while you're talking about the top96 players as the #3 Dman cut off (Brodin is #97 in TOI/G)

The value argument is going to be interesting in this case. Where you have people raving about this all-situations ability on one hand, it is being downplayed here.
 

Bleach Clean

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Aug 9, 2006
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#3 LHD, yes. RHD, no.


Even then. Some #3s per TOI this year (Dmen 65 to 96):

Tyler Myers
Alexandre Carrier
Nick Jensen
Cody Ceci
Brandon Carlo
Darren Raddysh
Matt Dumba
Chris Tanev
Erik Gudbranson
Jani Hakenpaa
Brandon Montour
Radko Gudas
* Will Borgen (99th)
 

Raistlin

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Aug 25, 2006
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I don't think the degree of difference has to be that stark for one to regret passing on Benson. Even if his numbers don't achieve elite status (Marchand, Marner), a 70~ point true all-situations player (includes PP) is not as common as a decent #3 dman. There might be 30ish players that do this league-wide (no spot duty), while you're talking about the top96 players as the #3 Dman cut off (Brodin is #97 in TOI/G)

The value argument is going to be interesting in this case. Where you have people raving about this all-situations ability on one hand, it is being downplayed here.
I think his ceiling is a bit higher than a decent #3. Brodin is 27th in TOI/G (23:40), but that stat means little when Seth Jones and Cam Fowler is ahead of him for different reasons.

Call me crazy, but I am hoping for a very good RH #3 projecting all his attributes even if he cannot play as a top pair D in his career. Its a hope its true.
 
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arttk

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Even then. Some #3s per TOI this year (Dmen 65 to 96):

Tyler Myers
Alexandre Carrier
Nick Jensen
Cody Ceci
Brandon Carlo
Darren Raddysh
Matt Dumba
Chris Tanev
Erik Gudbranson
Jani Hakenpaa
Brandon Montour
Radko Gudas
* Will Borgen (99th)

#3 are guys like Hronek who play 1st paring with a true #1 but not good enough to hold a 1st pair alone.

The fact you list a bunch of 3rd paring guys playing big min shows the lack of RHd in the league. I mean with the way how you define it, Kyle Burroughs is a f***ing 1st paring D.
 

JT Milker

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I would take a Chris Tanev over a small 70 point winger with no defensive utility without thinking twice lol, like instant snap decision. My smooth ass brain wouldn’t even get warm.
 

sting101

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Feb 8, 2012
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#3 are guys like Hronek who play 1st paring with a true #1 but not good enough to hold a 1st pair alone.

The fact you list a bunch of 3rd paring guys playing big min shows the lack of RHd in the league. I mean with the way how you define it, Kyle Burroughs is a f***ing 1st paring D.
what are #2s then?
 

arttk

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what are #2s then?
Just your normal 1st paring guys that is not a superstar.

#1 are like Hughes, Makar, Prime Hedman, like Norris winning guys that can carry a 3rd paring guy on the 1st paring.
You don’t have too many of them around the league.

A #2 is a #3 on the 1st pairing
A #3 is a #1 on the 2nd pairing
I mean we call Hronek a #3 and he plays on the 1st paring and deliver results like one bit nobody thinks he can run a 1st pair by himself right, or at least we haven’t seen it yet so people don’t believe he can.
 

F A N

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Aug 12, 2005
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What makes this 'above average'?

Also funny how bandy isn't giving this the hairy eyeball.

Well you're entitled to your opinion and like I was suggesting, we could get into a "best pick available" discussion which changes the discussion.

But at the end of the day, during that timespan, the Canucks drafted three 30+ goal scorers (Petey, McCann, Boeser), a Norris contender (Hughes), a Vezina contender (Demko in the second round), a top pairing/#3 Dman (Forsling in the 5th round), plus Hoglander in the 2nd round. All of that without the benefit of a top 4 pick.

Obviously there were some misses along the way and McCann and Forsling were given up for little in return but I would say that's above average drafting.
 
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arttk

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Feb 16, 2006
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Well the nice part of Hronek being a #3 is that D from 65-97 are being paid 4.6m to 3.7m so that is re assuring for our cap allocation.
well this is the part where RHD pricing gets f***ed up.

Gubranson is 3rd pair, gets 4Mx4
Severson is like a 4 and gets like 6.25M
Dunn is a 3/2 and he gets 7.7M? or something close to that.

there is a LHD price and a RHD price and RHD price is consistently more expensive because of scarcity.
 

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