Post-Game Talk: Tipped Off | Oilers lose series 3-1

[Mav3rick07]

That is one ugly mask.

If my son wore that in public and ended up getting his ass kicked I would laugh and tell him “shit happens.”

 

[Drivesaitl]

Here are the 5 vs 5 numbers:

Shots for:

Edmonton 99 Chicago 83

Scoring Chances for:

Edmonton 92 Chicago 75

High Danger Scoring Chances for:

Edmonton 48 Chicago 31

Now Chicago did outplay them badly in game 1, primarily in the first period. Here are the numbers for games 2-4

Shots for:

Edmonton 80 Chicago 55

Scoring Chances for:

Edmonton 74 Chicago 52

High Danger Scoring Chances for:

Edmonton 44 Chicago 25

That's not getting completely out played at 5 vs 5 for the whole series.

Chicago worked very hard for the series win. But they also got very lucky as a lot of the bounces went their way. Both things can happen simultaneously.

Much of the stats though are misleading. The basic trouble with scoring chance stats is that there ought to be a coefficient on each chance, on who is getting that chance. The Oilers have around 8 players that are inferior, and less capable of scoring than almost any of whats in the Hawks lineup. In order to be a chance shouldn't there be a realistic probability of a particular player scoring?

Chicago obtaines, raises good players while the Oilers each season go shopping for other clubs discarded, abandoned throwaways. The Oilers are a team basically flubbing draft after draft, sometimes even their first picks, while Hawks are accruing good players.

Hey, Hawks got some bad puck luck too. Dach is a more skilled player than all but 3 of our forwards. He didn't hit the twine. Toews, as good as he was in this series missed open nets. Kane didn't bag the amount of goals one would figure he could get with the chances he had.

We have no Debrincat, Kubalik in the lineup. We have no players with that kind of skill outside our top 3 forwards.

I mean what really is the prob of Kassian, Khaira, AA, Haas, All our D, actually scoring a goal.? I mean shouldn't even remotely expect that considering who they are here.

The Oilers even got some goals from Neal, Ennis, Archibald. 3 more players that can go cold for extended periods of time.

The problem for the Oilers, always, is that they have 3 forwards that are really any good. When those guys get the puck its a scoring chance. Anybody else on our roster, well, a guy can hope..

The reality is the vast majority of players on the Oilers lineup any night don't score many goals and can't realistically be expected to pot many. Somehow Tippett successfully disguised this blatant deficient most of the season. Band aides here, polly filla here, Duct tape there, somehow he got this lineup airtight most of the games. Realistically on the whole, probably the best job ofgetting a deficient lineup somewhere since Ronnie Low did.

 

[Oilhawks]

That is one ugly mask.

If it’s absorbent enough it could double as a hanky when the Phlegms shit themselves in the first round

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

What was this last series then, regular season? Playoff round, oh, maybe exhibition? Ya that’s it. (Spoken in the voice of photocopier man).

Ya, that's the ticket!
Now to go home to my wife, Morgan Fairchild.

 

[MaxR11]

Here are the 5 vs 5 numbers:

Shots for:

Edmonton 99 Chicago 83

Scoring Chances for:

Edmonton 92 Chicago 75

High Danger Scoring Chances for:

Edmonton 48 Chicago 31

Now Chicago did outplay them badly in game 1, primarily in the first period. Here are the numbers for games 2-4

Shots for:

Edmonton 80 Chicago 55

Scoring Chances for:

Edmonton 74 Chicago 52

High Danger Scoring Chances for:

Edmonton 44 Chicago 25

That's not getting completely out played at 5 vs 5 for the whole series.

Chicago worked very hard for the series win. But they also got very lucky as a lot of the bounces went their way. Both things can happen simultaneously.

Imo, the subjective HDSC and SC stats can be misleading. So many factors in play and it's dumb down by simplified subjective "stat" tracker. Basically I think it's any shot that comes from a certain area that will be considered HDSC. This doesn't account for whether the shot was rushed and disrupted or whether the shot was taken with a lot of time and space, whether the goalie was completely set or if the puck was passed side to side causing the goalie to be off balance, who the shooter was, traffic in front etc etc which obviously make a massive difference.

I believe the series wasn't terribly lopsided but it definitely felt to me that Chicago had more "control" over the game and was the better and more urgent team. It felt like they could step it up any time they wanted to and grab back control of the game. They just felt like the superior team. They weren't drastically better but better nevertheless.

 

[Ritchie Valens]

My 8 year old daughter just dished out more punishment than Kassian did the entire series. She laid a punishing hip check on her older brother into the Culligan water fill station in the grocery store when were just there.


You'd think we locked our kids in cages the way they act in public sometimes.

 

[McBeastMode]

 

[Cloned]

Is that fair? One guy is arguably a top-3 goal scorer in the entire league, another guy is a physical dman with very little offensive ability. Put Drai in Nurse's spot and maybe we are having a different conversation.

I’m just saying, that’s the difference between a win and a loss.

 

[bellagiobob]

My 8 year old daughter just dished out more punishment than Kassian did the entire series. She laid a punishing hip check on her older brother into the Culligan water fill station in the grocery store when were just there.


You'd think we locked our kids in cages the way they act in public sometimes.

Three year deal, highest we will go is 4.5 per. Will include a NMC.

Edit: Minor detail, but Kenny wants to know if she can skate. Not a deal breaker, but would be helpful.

 

[bellagiobob]

If my son wore that in public and ended up getting his ass kicked I would laugh and tell him “shit happens.”

If my kid wore that, I would realize that I’d failed as a father. And make him go live with his grandparents.

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

Good video that can change someone's depression of where the Oilers are after their loss to the Hawks.

Truly grateful to have witnessed Gretzky's magic with Kurri on his line.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Good video that can change someone's depression of where the Oilers are after their loss to the Hawks.

Truly grateful to have witnessed Gretzky's magic with Kurri on his line.

I was either not born or too young to watch. I've only seen shit Oilers hockey lol

 

[Fourier]

Much of the stats though are misleading. The basic trouble with scoring chance stats is that there ought to be a coefficient on each chance, on who is getting that chance. The Oilers have around 8 players that are inferior, and less capable of scoring than almost any of whats in the Hawks lineup. In order to be a chance shouldn't there be a realistic probability of a particular player scoring?

Chicago obtaines, raises good players while the Oilers each season go shopping for other clubs discarded, abandoned throwaways. The Oilers are a team basically flubbing draft after draft, sometimes even their first picks, while Hawks are accruing good players.

Hey, Hawks got some bad puck luck too. Dach is a more skilled player than all but 3 of our forwards. He didn't hit the twine. Toews, as good as he was in this series missed open nets. Kane didn't bag the amount of goals one would figure he could get with the chances he had.

We have no Debrincat, Kubalik in the lineup. We have no players with that kind of skill outside our top 3 forwards.

I mean what really is the prob of Kassian, Khaira, AA, Haas, All our D, actually scoring a goal.? I mean shouldn't even remotely expect that considering who they are here.

The Oilers even got some goals from Neal, Ennis, Archibald. 3 more players that can go cold for extended periods of time.

The problem for the Oilers, always, is that they have 3 forwards that are really any good. When those guys get the puck its a scoring chance. Anybody else on our roster, well, a guy can hope..

The reality is the vast majority of players on the Oilers lineup any night don't score many goals and can't realistically be expected to pot many. Somehow Tippett successfully disguised this blatant deficient most of the season. Band aides here, polly filla here, Duct tape there, somehow he got this lineup airtight most of the games. Realistically on the whole, probably the best job ofgetting a deficient lineup somewhere since Ronnie Low did.

, Ennis
In this case the scoring chances were primarily with players who can convert or have in the past. Of the 48 HDCF Nuge, McDavid, Draisiatl, Yamamoto, Neal, Ennis, Chiasson and Athanasiou had 34 of the chances compared with 31 for the whole Hawks team. These are all guys with a history of scoring goals when given the chance. For all the faults in AA's game the guy has always been able to put the puck in the net. Neal has always been a scorer. So I don't buy the argument that it was only the plugs getting chances. If you look at Kane, Toews, Kubalik, Debrincat, Saad, Storme and Dach you are talking 16 HDCF over 4 games.

Chicago got a third of their 5 vs 5 goals from Highmore, Maatta and Koekkoek. Highmore, a 24 year old undrafted player has 2 regular season goals in his career and has never been a goal scorer. KKK has 7 career goals. Maatta has a little punch in his game but he is not exactly a guy you would expect to generate much based on his recent history.

 

[Del Preston]

I'm going to come off as a real whiner here but I sincerely hope the organization doesn't lend a hand the next time the NHL is looking for help. The Pens and Oilers should both be fuming that the actual playoff spots they earned during the season were taken away because Gary wanted to give a couple big markets a second chance at getting into the playoffs. I'm not happy with how the Oilers played, however, being thrown into a best-of-five against a bottom feeder, after five months off, is just so f***ing dumb. Another example of the awesome "parity" Bettman likes to brag about. That's something you'd see in a youth league so no one feels left out.

 

[GretzkytoKurri9917]

I was either not born or too young to watch. I've only seen shit Oilers hockey lol

Lots of the young folk missed out on the pure enjoyment in the Edmonton region when we actually had a team.

I am too young to remember 1979-1984 Oilers but I remember greatly the 1985-1990 Oilers.

 

[Fourier]

Imo, the subjective HDSC and SC stats can be misleading. So many factors in play and it's dumb down by simplified subjective "stat" tracker. Basically I think it's any shot that comes from a certain area that will be considered HDSC. This doesn't account for whether the shot was rushed and disrupted or whether the shot was taken with a lot of time and space, whether the goalie was completely set or if the puck was passed side to side causing the goalie to be off balance, who the shooter was, traffic in front etc etc which obviously make a massive difference.

I believe the series wasn't terribly lopsided but it definitely felt to me that Chicago had more "control" over the game and was the better and more urgent team. It felt like they could step it up any time they wanted to and grab back control of the game. They just felt like the superior team. They weren't drastically better but better nevertheless.

More urgent I'd probably agree with but not more controlled. Chicago was very opportunistic., But in reality I think the Oilers controlled the play for a majority of the series. Not that it matters becauase one team is still playing and the other is not.

You are correct that stats like HDCF do not paint a conclusive picture. But when the numbers are very one-sided the evidence is more compelling, particularly given that the Hawks lead for a relatively short period of time in the last three games.

Bottom line for me is that these games could have gone either way, but the Oilers should have been able to take luck out of the equation. Lapses of concentration and a lack of urgency you mention really hurt. Luck you cannot change easily but other two factors you control.

 

[Fourier]

My 8 year old daughter just dished out more punishment than Kassian did the entire series. She laid a punishing hip check on her older brother into the Culligan water fill station in the grocery store when were just there.


You'd think we locked our kids in cages the way they act in public sometimes.

Kassian was a huge disappointment to me. The way he played in the last few minutes of game 4 was how he should have played the whole series.

 

[Drivesaitl]

, Ennis
In this case the scoring chances were primarily with players who can convert or have in the past. Of the 48 HDCF Nuge, McDavid, Draisiatl, Yamamoto, Neal, Ennis, Chiasson and Athanasiou had 34 of the chances compared with 31 for the whole Hawks team. These are all guys with a history of scoring goals when given the chance. For all the faults in AA's game the guy has always been able to put the puck in the net. Neal has always been a scorer. So I don't buy the argument that it was only the plugs getting chances. If you look at Kane, Toews, Kubalik, Debrincat, Saad, Storme and Dach you are talking 16 HDCF over 4 games.

Chicago got a third of their 5 vs 5 goals from Highmore, Maatta and Koekkoek. Highmore, a 24 year old undrafted player has 2 regular season goals in his career and has never been a goal scorer. KKK has 7 career goals. Maatta has a little punch in his game but he is not exactly a guy you would expect to generate much based on his recent history.

Unintendedly this further discussion pokes further holes in the goals scoring chances types of stats. 10 of the Hawks goals originate from shots from the point, and this is not atypical to playoff hockey. This kind of nullifies goal scoring chance tallies as metrics in playoff games. Which are atypically played, and are much different than regular season.

Chicago got some of those goals because they have D that can actually shoot the puck and get it through our pitiful attempts at blocks and coverage.

Its kind of funny that we are having this specific discussion of a series in which the Goal scoring metrics don't in anyway conform to the actual results. One could view that as yet more evidence these metrics don't really quantify all that much, and that perhaps the metrics are just pretty limited currently. The metrics specifically plot space where shot occurred and demarcation lines of which shots are considered scoring chances and which are not. Denying entirely that some talented players score outside of those demarked zones.

Nor do the stats quantify if the scoring chance was wide open, shooter had time and space, or if they were staring into an empty net.

Hockey is notoriously hard to quantify. We're really talking about some metrics that don't describe much at all.

My concern even is the takeaway from such can be that hey, we played all right, hey, we would have got swept without a McD hat trick in one game, but hey we were there.

In terms of gameplan, application, sound all zone play, defensive play, and a willingness to score from such things as point shots, the Oilers were owned in all those categories. I guess they can gain some solace though in that they had some scoring chances and maybe good corsi, which ultimately means nothing.

Finally AA is not a consistent goal scorer, never really has been, and outside of one outlier year nobody is really saying that. Kubalik matched that in one season. Good find. AA has not "always been able to put the puck in the net", pretty much the opposite and a player that more typically needs tons of shots and chances to score. Snakebit is not rare for him. Same with Chiasson, worse with the multitude of players we have that rarely ever score.

 

[KlefDown]

Remember when the Oilers got beat 3-1 in a best of 5 series vs the Chicago Blackhawks?

haha good times

 

[Cloned]

Remember when the Oilers got beat Tippett beat his own team 3-1 in a best of 5 series vs the Chicago Blackhawks?

haha good times

Fixed.

 

[Fourier]

Unintendedly this further discussion pokes further holes in the goals scoring chances types of stats. 10 of the Hawks goals originate from shots from the point, and this is not atypical to playoff hockey. This kind of nullifies goal scoring chance tallies as metrics in playoff games. Which are atypically played, and are much different than regular season.

Chicago got some of those goals because they have D that can actually shoot the puck and get it through our pitiful attempts at blocks and coverage.

Its kind of funny that we are having this specific discussion of a series in which the Goal scoring metrics don't in anyway conform to the actual results. One could view that as yet more evidence these metrics don't really quantify all that much, and that perhaps the metrics are just pretty limited currently. The metrics specifically plot space where shot occurred and demarcation lines of which shots are considered scoring chances and which are not. Denying entirely that some talented players score outside of those demarked zones.

Nor do the stats quantify if the scoring chance was wide open, shooter had time and space, or if they were staring into an empty net.

Hockey is notoriously hard to quantify. We're really talking about some metrics that don't describe much at all.

My concern even is the takeaway from such can be that hey, we played all right, hey, we would have got swept without a McD hat trick in one game, but hey we were there.

In terms of gameplan, application, sound all zone play, defensive play, and a willingness to score from such things as point shots, the Oilers were owned in all those categories. I guess they can gain some solace though in that they had some scoring chances and maybe good corsi, which ultimately means nothing.

I'd like to see some evidence that scoring is more likely from the point than from in close in the playoffs. I doubt it is true at all. These sorts of stats are not absolute. That's a given. But there is a undeniable correlation between where a shot attempt is initiated from and the likelihood of a goal. Why would this somehow change in the playoffs?

Statistically over 50% of NHL goals are scored within 20 ft of the net. The range between 10ft and 20 ft is the sweet-spot. That distance is the right balance between being close enough to limit the goalies reaction time and far enough away to give the shooter a bigger target. The HDSC are generally unblocked shots in this range or all shots from closer in. Once you are outside 30 ft the chances of a goal drops significantly.

Here is the shot map for Leon this year. He scored virtually all of his goals within this range.

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

5 vs 5 this is even more pronounced.

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

I'd be curious to know who these players are on the Hawks who typically score from further out. Kane for example scored 1 5 vs 5 goal from outside the dot.

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

Kubalik is similar

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

Toews scores from basically right in front of the net

MoneyPuck.com -Shot Maps

The one guy I can think of who might be the exception is OV. He scores from everywhere but he also shoots from everywhere.

Again, this is not to take anything away from Chicago. I think they played as well as they could. I also think that they got every break they could expect. Getting big goals from guys like Matt Highmore is not something one would expect any more than one would have expected Haas to get the game 4 winner. Kkk and Matta are not exactly known for their goal scoring. Keith is really the only defenseman they have who has teh skill you are attributing to the Hawk defensemen.

 

[Not Canada Drai]

Fixed.

I blame it on him not taking my advice and growing his moustache again. Absolute shame.

 

[Cloned]

I blame it on him not taking my advice and growing his moustache again. Absolute shame.

Meh, Sheahan had the full face beard going and he also beat his own team.

 

[ElysiumAB]

My heart still hurts.

I came back to mourn.

 

[Tyrolean]

Remember when the Oilers got beat 3-1 in a best of 5 series vs the Chicago Blackhawks?

haha good times

Remember when the Oilers beat the heavily favoured Habs 3-0 is a playoff series?