Tim Thomas' HoF chances

[tarheelhockey]

I really doubt Thomas makes the HHOF. It is tough for goalies to get in the way the voters have been selecting players. If he was to keep playing like he has for 3 more seasons and wins the Vezina this year and the Vezina in one of the next 3 years I think he has a shot. Also the Bruins would need to make the final at least once and Thomas would need an outstanding playoffs. But that would only give him an outside shot.

I doubt he does too, with much the same reasoning. My interest stems from:

1) I really like Tim Thomas.
2) It's a case where the player's longetivity is almost not a factor at all, which provides a unique opportunity to ask how GOOD you have to be to get in.

Unfortunately, #2 is almost always overshadowed in HHoF discussions by stat and award compilation. It'll be fascinating to see how attitudes develop toward Thomas if he can keep this up for another year or two.

BTW, I went back and looked at Hart voting since expansion. Here's the list of goalies who have finished in the top 3:

Dryden
Parent
Vachon (2)
Esposito (2)
Peeters
Lindbergh
Mike Liut (2)
Fuhr
Belfour
Vanbiesbrouck
Hasek (5)
Roy (2)
Theodore
Brodeur (2)
Kiprusoff

It's an interesting list, very revealing both of legends (Hasek!) and flashes in the pan.

 

[mrhockey193195]

Having two Vezinas/two first-team all stars is a major jump from just one. I would strongly consider Thomas as HOF worthy if he:

-Wins the Vezina this year. If he manages to win a third at some point, there's little to no way I can keep him out.

-Wins a cup, or has several deep playoff runs with the Bruins/whoever he is playing with.

-Plays CONSISTENTLY well, season to season, for the rest of his career.

 

[KingGallagherXI]

Without a cup he will need at the very least 3 Vezinas to get in. A Vezina this year and a cup would also give him a chance.

 

[DaveG]

He's 36 so if he were to make it, he'd have to get it done over the next 2 years or so. Honestly I'm not sure he has enough time despite his dominance 2 of the last 3 years, and his excellent play the last 4. But really, the issue is that he started so late in his career. About the only chance I see is if Thomas wins the Hart this year and another Vezina (not including this year), and has 2 deep playoff runs with the Bruins winning a cup in one of those seasons. I really can't think of too many players from the modern era in the Hall for 6 elite seasons with only an 8 or 9 year NHL career. Closest I can think of is Neely, who had a longer overall career then that, was a defining player for his position and role, played a position that's much easier to get into the hall as then goalie, and had an injury shortened career. And even with all that said, there are still many that don't consider Cam to be a worthy Hall of Famer, although certainly not the worst inductee.

 

[Sens Rule]

I doubt he does too, with much the same reasoning. My interest stems from:

1) I really like Tim Thomas.
2) It's a case where the player's longetivity is almost not a factor at all, which provides a unique opportunity to ask how GOOD you have to be to get in.

Unfortunately, #2 is almost always overshadowed in HHoF discussions by stat and award compilation. It'll be fascinating to see how attitudes develop toward Thomas if he can keep this up for another year or two.

BTW, I went back and looked at Hart voting since expansion. Here's the list of goalies who have finished in the top 3:

Dryden
Parent
Vachon (2)
Esposito (2)
Peeters
Lindbergh
Mike Liut (2)
Fuhr
Belfour
Vanbiesbrouck
Hasek (5)
Roy (2)
Theodore
Brodeur (2)
Kiprusoff

It's an interesting list, very revealing both of legends (Hasek!) and flashes in the pan.

Miller was 4th last year and he had an amazing season last year. Probably comparable with Thomas this season. Hard to get top 3 in Hart voting for a goalie.

 

[MS]

Tim Thomas is definitely up there with strangest careers and difficult players to evaluate.

Absolutely.

__________

Assuming he wins the Vezina this season (which he should do if he's even average in the 2nd half), one more Vezina after that would put him in serious consideration.

Winning 3 Vezinas pretty much puts you in the HHOF in my books, no matter how short your career is. Same as if a forward won 3 Art Ross trophies or a defender 3 Norrises.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

Is this actually happening? A HOF debate involving Tim Freaking Thomas?!

The OP suggest that Thomas should cruise to another Vezina this year. Unfortunately, this is probably correct. Voters these days tend to look at the stats sheet and nothing further. Actually watching hockley games reveals Thomas to be less of a goalie that what the numbers lead people to believe.

In any case, I have very strong doubts that, stats or not, any goaltender who has won one career playoff series (as a #1 seed) at age 36 is ever going to get one iota of HOF consideration.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Johnny Bower

Is this actually happening? A HOF debate involving Tim Freaking Thomas?!

The OP suggest that Thomas should cruise to another Vezina this year. Unfortunately, this is probably correct. Voters these days tend to look at the stats sheet and nothing further. Actually watching hockley games reveals Thomas to be less of a goalie that what the numbers lead people to believe.

In any case, I have very strong doubts that, stats or not, any goaltender who has won one career playoff series (as a #1 seed) at age 36 is ever going to get one iota of HOF consideration.

Kyle is closer to the reality of the Tim Thomas situation.

Closest comparable would be Johnny Bower who became a regular NHL goalie in his mid 30's after a few chances in his late twenties.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/b/bowerjo01.html

However his longevity afterwards and contributions to team success combined with personal achievements raise the bar to a highly unrealistic level for Thomas.

In a salary cap NHL an aging goalie with a viable young goalie - Rask who has shown #1 ability may not get the chances needed to attain Johnny Bower type numbers and honours.

 

[McGuillicuddy]

Actually watching hockley games reveals Thomas to be less of a goalie that what the numbers lead people to believe.

Can you elaborate? I've not watched him much this year (I only see him when he plays Toronto on Saturday nights and that's hardly a real test!) but he's currently stopping 945 out of every 1000 shots. Is his defense so solid that all those shots are coming from the outside/bad angles? I'm genuinely just curious why you believe the numbers don't tell the store here.

 

[Canadiens1958]

Tim Thomas

Can you elaborate? I've not watched him much this year (I only see him when he plays Toronto on Saturday nights and that's hardly a real test!) but he's currently stopping 945 out of every 1000 shots. Is his defense so solid that all those shots are coming from the outside/bad angles? I'm genuinely just curious why you believe the numbers don't tell the store here.

Having watched him regularly the last few years especially against the weak offensively Canadiens I would support Kyle's assessment. Having scouted upper echelon youth hockey, Tim Thomas fits the category of the impressive until ..................

Basically he can look great until that fall apart moment or goal and then things go south rapidly. The SV% - hockey's most misleading stat, looks great but its when the goals go in especially if they are goals that he was previously stopping or the technique just falls apart that cause you to think twice.

 

[blueandgoldguy]

Tim Thomas will have an excellent chance to make the HOF with a three Vezinas (only 1 more assuming he wins this year), a trip to the cup finals, and maybe a top three nomination for the Hart trophy. Add in another 150 - 200 wins over the next 5 or 6 years which would put him at the ripe old age of 41 - 42 and he should make it in. Obviously this will depend on how his body holds up.

Based on some of the comments here, you would think the Hockey Hall of Fame is difficult to make. I mean, cmon......three Vezinas, Hart trophy and Cup Finals might get you in!!!! This is the Hockey Hall of Fame, not the Baseball Hall of Fame! He would get in with those types of accomplishments, though probably not on the first ballot!

Look at some of players who have made it in....Bernie Federko, Bill Barber and most recently, Dino Ciccarelli. Clearly, the standards to make the Hall have not been that high in the past so there is no reason to believe that Tim Thomas would be held to differnet standard.

If we use Tarheel s hypothetical accomplishments for Thomas as a standard, he gets in IMO.

 

[Sens Rule]

Is this actually happening? A HOF debate involving Tim Freaking Thomas?!

The OP suggest that Thomas should cruise to another Vezina this year. Unfortunately, this is probably correct. Voters these days tend to look at the stats sheet and nothing further. Actually watching hockley games reveals Thomas to be less of a goalie that what the numbers lead people to believe.

In any case, I have very strong doubts that, stats or not, any goaltender who has won one career playoff series (as a #1 seed) at age 36 is ever going to get one iota of HOF consideration.

Really? Thomas is a fantastic goalie when I watch him play. Even if Boston plays good team defence Thomas is an excellent goalie.

Why would you say Thomas is less of a goalie than the numbers lead you to believe?

 

[Sens Rule]

Tim Thomas will have an excellent chance to make the HOF with a three Vezinas (only 1 more assuming he wins this year), a trip to the cup finals, and maybe a top three nomination for the Hart trophy. Add in another 150 - 200 wins over the next 5 or 6 years which would put him at the ripe old age of 41 - 42 and he should make it in. Obviously this will depend on how his body holds up.

Based on some of the comments here, you would think the Hockey Hall of Fame is difficult to make. I mean, cmon......three Vezinas, Hart trophy and Cup Finals might get you in!!!! This is the Hockey Hall of Fame, not the Baseball Hall of Fame! He would get in with those types of accomplishments, though probably not on the first ballot!

Look at some of players who have made it in....Bernie Federko, Bill Barber and most recently, Dino Ciccarelli. Clearly, the standards to make the Hall have not been that high in the past so there is no reason to believe that Tim Thomas would be held to differnet standard.

If we use Tarheel s hypothetical accomplishments for Thomas as a standard, he gets in IMO.

It is MUCH harder to get in as a Goalie. Tom Barrasso is not in. He might someday make it but he might not. Rogie Vachon is not in. Will Vernon make it? Osgood? Hextall? Moog? Kiprusoff? They have far more impressive resumes than Thomas does. It seems that they put in 3 or 4 goalies per era. That is it. In my opinion more goalies should make it because really they are very often the MVPs of their teams, while secondary players like Glenn Anderson and Dino Ciccarelli make it. You don't win if they are the best player on your team. You do win if your goalie is your best player.

It is tough with goalies because few really have consistency and long careers at a high level. You really, really, really need some playoff success as a goalie. More than any other player you need to always be elite or near elite and have playoff success. If you have some non elite seasons and playoff success you are a product of your team (Vernon, Osgood). If you have little deep playoffs you aren't a money goalie (Luongo, Joesph)

Unlike players if you hang around and add counting stats your career is tarnished. Would Dryden be considered as great if he played 5 or 6 more seasons and did not win another Vezina or Cup and was just an above average goalie? Probably not. While say Lafleur who basically has an elite career as long as Dryden's and was not elite before or after those 6 or 7 seasons added to his career legacy with his counting stats.

Thomas would need to not ever have a season where he was not excellent, would need to get more All-Star selections and Vezina's and a Cup run. And even then that is just to even get any consideration.

 

[finchster]

Is this actually happening? A HOF debate involving Tim Freaking Thomas?!

The OP suggest that Thomas should cruise to another Vezina this year. Unfortunately, this is probably correct. Voters these days tend to look at the stats sheet and nothing further. Actually watching hockley games reveals Thomas to be less of a goalie that what the numbers lead people to believe.

In any case, I have very strong doubts that, stats or not, any goaltender who has won one career playoff series (as a #1 seed) at age 36 is ever going to get one iota of HOF consideration.

I agree actually seeing a player is better than by going on stats but goaltending is the position in hockey were stats reveal more than any other position in hockey. Also watching him play this year, I can tell you he has outright stolen multiple games for Boston that they shouldn't have won, he hasn't been just a passenger on a good Bruins team. I am curious as to who you would give the Vezina to?

I agree however with the HHOF assessment, he needs ALOT more to get consideration otherwise he is just Theodore at the moment.

Really? Thomas is a fantastic goalie when I watch him play. Even if Boston plays good team defence Thomas is an excellent goalie.

Thomas does eat the sens alive for some reason he has Ottawa's number

 

[Trottier]

So assuming he wins Vezina #2 this season, where does he stand for HoF consideration?

Slightly above nil.

 

[Ohashi_Jouzu*]

Without a cup he will need at the very least 3 Vezinas to get in. A Vezina this year and a cup would also give him a chance.

Was going to post the same thing. If you're a multiple Vezina winner who has one of those "legendary" seasons on the resume (eg: Vezina + Cup... maybe + Conn Smythe would be level 9000 or above), I have to believe you'll get strong consideration at least. If that happens, this discussion will be far less laughable than it currently is.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

Can you elaborate? I've not watched him much this year (I only see him when he plays Toronto on Saturday nights and that's hardly a real test!) but he's currently stopping 945 out of every 1000 shots. Is his defense so solid that all those shots are coming from the outside/bad angles? I'm genuinely just curious why you believe the numbers don't tell the store here.

Really? Thomas is a fantastic goalie when I watch him play. Even if Boston plays good team defence Thomas is an excellent goalie.

Why would you say Thomas is less of a goalie than the numbers lead you to believe?

C1958 covered my main argument:

Basically he can look great until that fall apart moment or goal and then things go south rapidly. The SV% - hockey's most misleading stat, looks great but its when the goals go in especially if they are goals that he was previously stopping or the technique just falls apart that cause you to think twice.

The game two Saturday's ago against Montreal was vintage Thomas. Boston pretty much controlled the game, up 2-0 with just a couple minutes remaining. Then Thomas lets in an absolutely terrible goal from the half boards. Montreal ties it with the goalie pulled a minute later, and Thomas fails to come up with a big save in the OT period. 2-0 win turned into a 3-2 loss in the blink of an eye.

As for the numbers not telling the whole story...well, if you take them at face value, Thomas is having a better season than any posted by a prime Dominik Hasek. Does anybody in here actually believe that to be the case?

I am curious as to who you would give the Vezina to?

Well, I'm of the opinion that Thomas is only the second-best goaltender on his own team, so I guess we could start with Tuuka Rask.

 

[finchster]

Well, I'm of the opinion that Thomas is only the second-best goaltender on his own team, so I guess we could start with Tuuka Rask.

I guess you own a time machine and just got back from last season

 

[PB37]

Is this actually happening? A HOF debate involving Tim Freaking Thomas?!

The OP suggest that Thomas should cruise to another Vezina this year. Unfortunately, this is probably correct. Voters these days tend to look at the stats sheet and nothing further. Actually watching hockley games reveals Thomas to be less of a goalie that what the numbers lead people to believe.

In any case, I have very strong doubts that, stats or not, any goaltender who has won one career playoff series (as a #1 seed) at age 36 is ever going to get one iota of HOF consideration.

" Actually watching hockey games". Funny you say that and have a negative slant towards Thomas' chances at the Vezina this year.

Tim Thomas is the unquestioned best goaltender in the league this year. His stats paint a fairly accurate picture of how well he has played. He's had a couple of off/bad games, but for the vast majority of games played, he has been lights out and there's no way any honest, impartial hockey fan can deny or trivialize that.

 

[PaganKnight]

Not sure about his chance but he's sure playing like he don't want another number 30 on the Bruins Roster.

 

[Briere Up There*]

As for the numbers not telling the whole story...well, if you take them at face value, Thomas is having a better season than any posted by a prime Dominik Hasek. Does anybody in here actually believe that to be the case?

No one has said that. He's easily been the best goalie of the 2010-2011 season though.

I don't really get the Thomas haters. Rask has worse numbers, and has played great. He just doesn't get the goal support Tim does when he's in, and seems unable to make the huge save Tim usually comes up with this season. He hasn't stolen any games. So Thomas starts.

Tim let in a bad goal against Montreal a week ago... That takes him out of consideration for the Vezina?

 

[PB37]

Thomas has the the second highest save percentage in league history among goaltenders with at least 200 starts. The leader in that category would be Hasek. That's a strong feather in his cap right now in writing together a HHOF resume, as long as he can keep that mark, or hell, maybe even pass Hasek at some point.

Hasek: .922
Thomas: .921

I also think Thomas is the only goaltender in league history who's been credited with two NHL All Star game wins. He did so in the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 seasons back to back.

I think Thomas will end up retiring after his current contract runs out. I also think he's in the midst of putting together a decent case for consideration. If he ends his career with something like this...

3 Vezina Trophies
2 Jennings
1 Conn Smythe
1 Hart
1 Stanley Cup


220 Wins
.923 SP
2.49 GAA
40 shutouts

Then he's got a strong case to present. He's on his way to obtaining some of those marks IMO. If he can nail all, he'd have my vote as a hall of fame goaltender.

 

[seventieslord]

I agree Kyle, this seems like a bit of a reach. Thomas has some bad goals, so does every goalie. Clearly it's happening to him a lot less often than it is to other goalies. Every chance I've had to see him this year, he's been incredible.

A goalie can only "make" his sv% look better than he is, by stopping more pucks. But if he stops more pucks, isn't he actually better?

Shot quality is always a fair thing to bring up when discussing sv%, but aside from Chara, who's really making the Bruins' shot quality against exceptional?

It's only half a season in. Thomas' numbers will regress to the mean like most things do over a longer sample. I doubt he'll end up posting numbers better than Hasek ever did.

 

[seventieslord]

Thomas has the the second highest save percentage in league history among goaltenders with at least 200 starts. The leader in that category would be Hasek. That's a strong feather in his cap right now in writing together a HHOF resume, as long as he can keep that mark, or hell, maybe even pass Hasek at some point.

Hasek: .922
Thomas: .921

I also think Thomas is the only goaltender in league history who's been credited with two NHL All Star game wins. He did so in the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 seasons back to back.

I think Thomas will end up retiring after his current contract runs out. I also think he's in the midst of putting together a decent case for consideration. If he ends his career with something like this...

3 Vezina Trophies
2 Jennings
1 Conn Smythe
1 Hart
1 Stanley Cup


220 Wins
.923 SP
2.49 GAA
40 shutouts

Then he's got a strong case to present. He's on his way to obtaining some of those marks IMO. If he can nail all, he'd have my vote as a hall of fame goaltender.

His average will regress, not get better. Not just because he's aging, but mainly because stats regress to the mean over time. His lows have been much worse than Hasek's lows. And don't forget Hasek played until he was 43. His career sv% was .925 when he was Thomas' age.

 

[PaganKnight]

If he win 3 vezina he will get in...With his story he's a friendly face for the poeple who vote who get in.