Tim Thomas' HoF chances

[PB37]

His average will regress, not get better. Not just because he's aging, but mainly because stats regress to the mean over time. His lows have been much worse than Hasek's lows. And don't forget Hasek played until he was 43. His career sv% was .925 when he was Thomas' age.

IMO, Thomas won't be playing until he's 43. I think he hangs them up at the end of his current contract ( 39 ). I don't have any evidence to back this up, it's just my own assumption.

I think he can do it... and by it, I mean slip past the Dominater and get to .923 for his career save percentage. He doesn't have as much mileage on his body as most goaltenders do at his age.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

No one has said that. He's easily been the best goalie of the 2010-2011 season though.

So despite an inferior save%, it's generally agreed that Hasek of the late 90's was a better goaltender than Tim Thomas currently is. As in, the stats don't tell the whole story. Which supports my point that Thomas isn't a great as stats would indicate.

Tim let in a bad goal against Montreal a week ago... That takes him out of consideration for the Vezina?

If viewed in isolation, of course not. But that's the book on Thomas. One of those goalies that will often stop 33/35 shots in a game, but the timing and style of those two that did get by is bad enough that it really can't be considered a great performance, despite the attractive save%.

 

[finchster]

If he win 3 vezina he will get in...With his story he's a friendly face for the poeple who vote who get in.

Because his career will be short he is going to have to make up for it, 3 Vezina’s will put goalies in the HHOF, but Tim needs that and probably a cup with a Conn Smythe like performance* to get in.
* not necessarily win but be in the conversation

Let’s wait to see if he will win his second Vezina before talking about three.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

I guess you own a time machine and just got back from last season

I guess I should clarify, no I don't think Rask should be a Vezina candidate. Clearly he hasn't played enough games. I don't think his actual performance has been below Thomas' though. Claude Julien is going to play whoever is winning him games. So far, that's been Thomas, but I attribute most of that to the bizarre disparity in goal support the Bruins provide their netminders. Rask basically needs a shutout, or he's not going to win. Thomas can usually afford to give up a couple. Mentally, one of those situations is much more favorable to a goaltender.

Oh, and to answer the original question: I'd probably vote for Carey Price for Vezina at this point.

 

[finchster]

If viewed in isolation, of course not. But that's the book on Thomas. One of those goalies that will often stop 33/35 shots in a game, but the timing and style of those two that did get by is bad enough that it really can't be considered a great performance, despite the attractive save%.

I agree somewhat, the year Thomas won the Vezina he lead the league quiet comfortably in sv% but was well down the leader board in shutouts. This illustrates the point you were making is possible.

However, Thomas is tied for first in the NHL in shutouts this season with 7, so I am not really sure what is humanly possible for him left to do? It seems more likely that it isn't the case this season.

 

[MXD]

He won't.

My 2 cents : Thomas can't get in on career totals. He has to get in either on the basis of awards, eventual post-season play, and probably some of both.

The problem -- Tuukka Rask is too much of a good goalie, and we now have a salary cap. Even for this season, I'm not sure Thomas gets the Vezina if he do not play 60 games.

I'd like to see a "Value over replacement" stat comparison with Tim Thomas and Carey Price at the end of the season - I highly suspect that Price would fare better, due to having played 15 or so more games than Thomas.

 

[Tavaresmagicalplay*]

Problem with considering this guy for the hall of fame. He's had as many great seasons in the league as he's had mediocre season, he hasn't had any real international success other than a silver sitting on the bench at the olympics and finally the fact that he lost his job to rookie.

Theres alot going against him.

 

[finchster]

I guess I should clarify, no I don't think Rask should be a Vezina candidate.

Thanks for the clarification I wouldn’t have guessed that was sarcasm.

Clearly he hasn't played enough games. I don't think his actual performance has been below Thomas' though. Claude Julien is going to play whoever is winning him games. So far, that's been Thomas, but I attribute most of that to the bizarre disparity in goal support the Bruins provide their netminders. Rask basically needs a shutout, or he's not going to win. Thomas can usually afford to give up a couple. Mentally, one of those situations is much more favorable to a goaltender.

I can tell you from watching 80% of Boston’s games this season that Rask isn’t playing the same way he was last year, that is ok. I think NHL teams have the book on Rask and it is high blocker side. We saw the same thing with Carey Price when teams got the message to shoot high glove on him. Young goaltenders often need to work out some issues in their game.

I am also not being dramatic when I say I cannot remember all year when Rask made a one on one save, he hasn't made one in the shootout or in game. Rask historically hasn’t been good in the shootout or one on one situations and he also needs to work on that.

Rask is a good young goalie but he needs to work these issues out of his game before he is an NHL starter. I have seen plenty of young goaltenders come up looking like the next great goalie and amount to nothing.

He doesn't have as much mileage on his body as most goaltenders do at his age.

Sorry Veddar buddy, this doesn't fly. Unless goaltenders in Europe aren't actually playing hockey

 

[SidGenoMario]

Some of you guys are discriminating against people with short careers and I don't think that's logical.

You say "Guy A could have 3 Vezinas, but since he had only played X years, he's not as good as Guy B. He had 3 Vezinas and played for 20 years!"

I really disagree with that. The Hall of Fame should be for people with amazing accomplishments. Playing empty years without accomplishing anything shouldn't help your case for being in the Hall. If you're good enough to win 3 Vezinas in your first 6 seasons, then conventional wisdom says you haven't played long enough to deserve a spot. But then say that guy stays around for 12 more seasons, while floundering in mediocrity. Now he's got it all, 3 trophies and a high number of games. But.. in those final 12 seasons, did he really add anything to his career to make himself a better goalie?

 

[dafoomie]

The game two Saturday's ago against Montreal was vintage Thomas. Boston pretty much controlled the game, up 2-0 with just a couple minutes remaining. Then Thomas lets in an absolutely terrible goal from the half boards. Montreal ties it with the goalie pulled a minute later, and Thomas fails to come up with a big save in the OT period. 2-0 win turned into a 3-2 loss in the blink of an eye.

The Bruins were outshot 23-8 in the 3rd period and OT in that game, they had begun collapsing long before Montreal scored their first goal. It was a fluky goal, weak little shot that deflected twice and bounced over his stick as he went to play it into the corner. It happens. The tying goal was a result of Julien sending the 4th line out in the final 2 minutes and getting stuck out there on an icing for the crucial faceoff.

If you want to talk about giving up some back breaking goals at bad times and not making the big save, you have to look at Tuukka Rask this year. High blocker was mentioned but he's constantly cheating and giving up the short side. He's 1-6 against playoff teams with a GAA of 3.17 (vs 11-1-4, 2.12 for Thomas). The only teams he's given up two goals or less to are St. Louis, Florida, the Islanders, Toronto, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh (without Crosby), and even in that game he gave up a brutal short side backhand to Mike Rupp. He's 4-1-1 in those games. Also, in every shootout or penalty shot attempt against him, no one has failed to score.

 

[YogiCanucks]

If Thim Thomas gets shutouts for the remainder of the season I could see him getting a HHoF nod.

 

[finchster]

If you want to talk about giving up some back breaking goals at bad times and not making the big save, you have to look at Tuukka Rask this year. High blocker was mentioned but he's constantly cheating and giving up the short side. He's 1-6 against playoff teams with a GAA of 3.17 (vs 11-1-4, 2.12 for Thomas). The only teams he's given up two goals or less to are St. Louis, Florida, the Islanders, Toronto, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh (without Crosby), and even in that game he gave up a brutal short side backhand to Mike Rupp. He's 4-1-1 in those games. Also, in every shootout or penalty shot attempt against him, no one has failed to score.

This, I am willing to bet with Tuukka in net this year the Bruins are a fringe playoff team, maybe on the outside looking in.

 

[Briere Up There*]

So despite an inferior save%, it's generally agreed that Hasek of the late 90's was a better goaltender than Tim Thomas currently is. As in, the stats don't tell the whole story. Which supports my point that Thomas isn't a great as stats would indicate.

seventieslord already mentioned regression to the mean, it applies here. There's also the fact that Boston's defense, while not great, is better than Hasek's. These are various factors. He passes the eye test for me, saving the Bruins' hinds at various times this year.

If viewed in isolation, of course not. But that's the book on Thomas. One of those goalies that will often stop 33/35 shots in a game, but the timing and style of those two that did get by is bad enough that it really can't be considered a great performance, despite the attractive save%.

In a historical context that may be his Achilles' heel. But this season, he hasn't been doing that. Even so, if he makes 2 saves he has no business making and then lets in two clunkers, hasn't he still done his job?

 

[PB37]

Sorry Veddar buddy, this doesn't fly. Unless goaltenders in Europe aren't actually playing hockey

Between NHL, AHL, and international play, Thomas has played in less games than most goaltenders around his age.

Regular Season Games Played

Thomas ( 36 yrs old ): 414

Osgood ( 38 years old ) : 798
Khabibulin ( 38 years old ): 750
Gerber ( 36 years old ): 497
Vokoun ( 34 years old ) 760
Kiprusoff: ( 34 years old ) 770

 

[Gobias Industries]

If viewed in isolation, of course not. But that's the book on Thomas. One of those goalies that will often stop 33/35 shots in a game, but the timing and style of those two that did get by is bad enough that it really can't be considered a great performance, despite the attractive save%.

He's 22-4-6 this year..

Please...that save % is not as inflated as you would suggest, not this year anyway...

 

[tarheelhockey]

I have been saying for a long time that the Bruins are a perfect team for Thomas to play on. Their system matches his style hand-in-glove, allowing him to commit 100% to the shooter and not have to worry too much about 2nd and 3rd opportunities.

That said, wasn't Montreal a perfect team for Ken Dryden? Didn't Buffalo have one of the better defensive teams of the late '90s? IIRC, Grant Fuhr's case was made slightly stronger because of the team he played for.

It seems like somewhat of a cop-out argument to say that Thomas is just a product of his team, considering ALL goalies are a product of their teams as far as HOF consideration is concerned. That simple fact doesn't wash out his lead over the next-best goalie in the league.

 

[Derick*]

I have been saying for a long time that the Bruins are a perfect team for Thomas to play on. Their system matches his style hand-in-glove, allowing him to commit 100% to the shooter and not have to worry too much about 2nd and 3rd opportunities.

That said, wasn't Montreal a perfect team for Ken Dryden? Didn't Buffalo have one of the better defensive teams of the late '90s? IIRC, Grant Fuhr's case was made slightly stronger because of the team he played for.

It seems like somewhat of a cop-out argument to say that Thomas is just a product of his team, considering ALL goalies are a product of their teams as far as HOF consideration is concerned. That simple fact doesn't wash out his lead over the next-best goalie in the league.

Nope.

 

[tarheelhockey]

Nope.

I'm not a Sabres fan by any stretch so I could be wrong, but I remember them being one of the more rugged teams at that time. Peca made his name there, plus they had Stu Barnes. I'm struggling to even remember their defensemen because it seems like almost all of them were more defensively oriented and didn't score a ton of points.

 

[MillerTime2181]

It's the Hockey Hall of Fame. Not the NHL Hall Of Fame. He has impressive numbers in all the leagues he's played in. That said he does need to pad his resume more. A Vezina, and a long playoff run would go a long way towards that. He's a great story and it'd be nice to see him stick around a while longer to get some more numbers/accolades.

 

[Bear of Bad News]

It's the Hockey Hall of Fame. Not the NHL Hall Of Fame.

In theory, yes, but not in practice. You have to be extra-extraordinary to get into the HHOF on non-NHL credentials.

 

[CHGoalie27]

In theory, yes, but not in practice. You have to be extra-extraordinary to get into the HHOF on non-NHL credentials.

Any non CCCPers, nonFemale, non NHLers in the hall? ...from the last 60 years?

 

[lextune]

I've obviously seen every game Timmy has ever played, and I love the guy....

....but seriously? Not a Hall of Famer at this point.

And that is taking into consideration the virtual lock of him picking up a second Vezina this year, (unless some unforeseen massive fall off occurs).

 

[Jarick]

Just thinking out loud...

There's not been many consistently dominant goalies the last few years. Vokoun and Miller come close, but it's not like when you have Roy/Brodeur/Hasek all battling it out. So many goalies nowadays play such a similar style and are so technically sound that they rely on the team in front of them. I mean, Thomas led the league in 08-09 and this year in save percentage while Rask led the league last year with the same team.

IMO, he'd have to win at least two more Vezinas and have a few really excellent playoff runs, including at least one Cup and possibly a Conn Smythe. He'd have to be named first team All Star a few times. Then he gets in the discussion. The reason I say that is because the other individual awards, such as obviously the Calder and probably the Hart, are likely off the table.

If he had 4-5 years of dominance both in the regular and post season, we could talk about him being the best goalie of the late 2000's/early 2010's...but right now you could argue that Miller and Vokoun, maybe even Lundqvist are better goalies, just stuck behind worse teams. And I don't think any of those guys are HOF'ers.

EDIT: Also another reason I doubt he'll make it is that Rask is primed and ready to steal his spot, and I'd guess the Bruins would want a tandem at the least as early as next season, just so they have their goalie of the future winning and getting confidence rather than leaning on a 40-year-old. And that would reduce Thomas' chances to impress.

 

[TheDevilMadeMe]

I'm not a Sabres fan by any stretch so I could be wrong, but I remember them being one of the more rugged teams at that time. Peca made his name there, plus they had Stu Barnes. I'm struggling to even remember their defensemen because it seems like almost all of them were more defensively oriented and didn't score a ton of points.

Alexei Zhitnik was their #1 defenseman and he was one of the best defensive defensemen of the era. Richard Smehlik was his regular partner, and while he was underrated, he wasn't anything special.

After that, they had Jason Wooley, who was very good offensively and pretty bad in his own zone, followed by a bunch of no-names.

They definitely played a style of hockey that perfectly complimented Hasek - they basically gave up the first shot every time, knowing he would stop it and their large defensemen (Zhitnik was huge) would concentrate on the rebounds.

I've said before that Hasek's save percentages were definitely inflated a bit, due to the Sabre's bend but not break style of play in their own zone. But then, they tended to give up more than their share of breakaways, knowing Hasek is the best ever at stopping them, so maybe the shot quality evened out in the end.

 

[jkrx]

Alexei Zhitnik was their #1 defenseman and he was one of the best defensive defensemen of the era. Richard Smehlik was his regular partner, and while he was underrated, he wasn't spectacular.

After that, they had Jason Wooley, who was very good offensively and pretty bad in his own zone, followed by a bunch of no-names.

They definitely played a style of hockey that perfectly complimented Hasek - they basically gave up the first shot every time, knowing he would stop it and their large defensemen (Zhitnik was huge) would concentrate on the rebounds.

I've said before that Hasek's save percentages were definitely inflated a bit, due to the Sabre's bend but not break style of play in their own zone. But then, they tended to give up more than their share of breakaways, knowing Hasek is the best ever at stopping them, so maybe the shot quality evened out in the end.

Wilson and Boughner were solid in the Sabres system. Hard rugged defensemen. I wouldnt call Galley and McKee no-names.

Not to mention Sarich, Warrener, Campbell, Shannon and Patrick