Thoughts on the rebuild?

[BondraTime]

Marchand+Bergeron+Rask when he is on like he is now

O'Reilly (super underrated, maybe not anymore)+Tarasenko+Pietrangelo




Yes, it's possible someone could come out of nowhere like Karlsson did or Tarasenko did and become a superstar. I'm just pointing out, as of now, Chabot is our only one.

Pasternak

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Pasternak

Yes him too.

 

[Micklebot]

Marchand+Bergeron+Rask when he is on like he is now

O'Reilly (super underrated, maybe not anymore)+Tarasenko+Pietrangelo




Yes, it's possible someone could come out of nowhere like Karlsson did or Tarasenko did and become a superstar. I'm just pointing out, as of now, Chabot is our only one.

Having loads of prospects who should become solid NHLrs is how you end up with somebody coming out of nowehere.

I also think our 1st next year will likely end up a top 10 pick, odds being good it's a top 5. if that's the case, you can potentially add one right there too.

 

[MatchesMalone]

OK, so I've been talking for years about this idea of a biphasic, or polyphasic, rebuild. I got the idea from St. Louis, so they are still the prototype for me, but Winnipeg has been another good example, and I'm sure there are others.

So let me start with the basics. This won't be new information to anyone, but just so we all know where I’m coming from. Every rebuild, or every phase of a rebuild, should start from the net out, in accordance with the development time for each position. As very rough rules of thumb, I like to say five to seven years from draft before goalies will make the NHL, and eight to ten years from draft to reach prime. For defensemen, you're typically looking at four to six years from draft to make the NHL, and seven to nine years to reach prime. For forwards, you can get them to the NHL three to five years after draft, and six to eight years from draft to reach prime. For first round picks you can often knock a year or two off of those numbers, and for high first rounders all bets are off.

For St. Louis the rebuild started around 2006. To what extent this biphasic rebuild was a pre-arranged strategy by St. Louis is up for debate, but probably it became clear to them what they were doing as it happened, and certainly for Winnipeg it was to some extent pre-arranged. The Blues started by bringing in a good initial core group of mostly two-way, low-risk prospects and young players in Backes, Oshie, Erik Johnson, Perron, Berglund, Ian Cole, Eller, Lehtera. Then as this young core started to come together in the NHL, the Blues began the second phase of the rebuild, starting in net and on D with Jake Allen, Pietrangelo and David Rundblad, and then they started going for more high-end skilled forwards with Tarasenko, Schwartz, Fabbri, and adding defensemen like Parayko and Edmundson.

This looks to be exactly what Ottawa is trying to do. Here you have the first phase led by Hogberg, Chabot, and mostly two-way, low-risk forwards in White, Brown, Norris, Tkachuk, Batherson. The acquisitions of Gustavsson, Brannstrom and JBD signify the start of the second phase, and Thomson this year adds to that. With a likely top five pick next year, hopefully three total picks in the first round, and three more in the second, and then a first and three more second rounders in 2021, now we begin the forward section of phase two. We took a bunch of college kids last year, and watch for more college kids and Europeans in the rest of this draft. In the next two drafts there will be more junior players, and we will be swinging for the fences, looking for high-end offensive weapons.

See, when you're doing a full-scale rebuild like this, for the first phase you're looking for low-risk players because you just want to get solid NHL players in the lineup and become competitive, and you want them to be two-way, low-flash players, so that you can keep them on reasonable contracts through their mid-twenties. Then for the second phase you can take more risks, and you want to find a couple of gamebreakers who might end up making big money down the road, but provide cheap, high end talent early on while the first phase players are in their primes. If even four of our big five young forwards pan out as top six forwards, and at least one or two of the next tier (Formenton, Balcers, Chlapik, Abramov) pan out as top nine forwards, then we’re putting ourselves in pretty good position.

Chabot is the linchpin of this whole rebuild, so we'll want to give ourselves the best possible chance to win a Cup before he becomes UFA eligible in 2024. Hopefully we can lock him up long term and eat into a year or two of his UFA, but I’m only mildly hopeful. With a couple more years of development of that first-phase core group, and a couple of shrewd trades and free-agent signings, we should be able to be a competitive team by 2021 or ’22 for sure.

But you don’t win Cups with just a safe, two-way team. You need some gamebreakers. So the later rounds of this draft and especially those eight picks in the first three rounds next year are going to be absolutely crucial. A couple of those second and third rounders in 2020 and especially ‘21 should be traded to help move things along, but most of them will be used on high-risk, high-reward forwards. We’ll have that top five forward next year, be it Lafreniere, Byfield, Lundell, Holtz or whoever, and that player should be in the lineup for 2020/’21, and should be approaching prime and still on ELC by 2022/’23. And that is where our window will open as legitimate Cup contenders. Brannstrom should be in the NHL next year, and in his prime by ‘23, and we’ll be looking to get Thomson and JBD into the lineup by ‘21 (hopeful for one year of Liiga and then one year of AHL for Thomson, and one more year of college and then one year of AHL for JBD), so by 2023/’24 they’ll be in their second or third years, and should be reliable NHLers still on affordable contracts. If at least two of those big three D prospects pan out as top four D, we’ll be in a really good position.

Then those high-risk, high-impact forwards we take in the second and third round of 2019 and the first through third rounds in 2020 – if we can hit on at least one, maybe even two of them (in addition to Byfield), then they should be ready to come into the league by ’22, and by 2023 or ’24 you’ve got another cheap forward or two with game-breaking skill. So we should have at least a solid two or three year window as legit contenders starting from 2022/'23. And since we’ll have the first phase players mostly still on reasonable contracts through their mid-twenties, and the second phase gamebreakers still on ELC or second contracts, this plan is realizable even regardless of ownership and spending issues.

 

[Ice-Tray]

OK, so I've been talking for years about this idea of a biphasic, or polyphasic, rebuild. I got the idea from St. Louis, so they are still the prototype for me, but Winnipeg has been another good example, and I'm sure there are others.

So let me start with the basics. This won't be new information to anyone, but just so we all know where I’m coming from. Every rebuild, or every phase of a rebuild, should start from the net out, in accordance with the development time for each position. As very rough rules of thumb, I like to say five to seven years from draft before goalies will make the NHL, and eight to ten years from draft to reach prime. For defensemen, you're typically looking at four to six years from draft to make the NHL, and seven to nine years to reach prime. For forwards, you can get them to the NHL three to five years after draft, and six to eight years from draft to reach prime. For first round picks you can often knock a year or two off of those numbers, and for high first rounders all bets are off.

For St. Louis the rebuild started around 2006. To what extent this biphasic rebuild was a pre-arranged strategy by St. Louis is up for debate, but probably it became clear to them what they were doing as it happened, and certainly for Winnipeg it was to some extent pre-arranged. The Blues started by bringing in a good initial core group of mostly two-way, low-risk prospects and young players in Backes, Oshie, Erik Johnson, Perron, Berglund, Ian Cole, Eller, Lehtera. Then as this young core started to come together in the NHL, the Blues began the second phase of the rebuild, starting in net and on D with Jake Allen, Pietrangelo and David Rundblad, and then they started going for more high-end skilled forwards with Tarasenko, Schwartz, Fabbri, and adding defensemen like Parayko and Edmundson.

This looks to be exactly what Ottawa is trying to do. Here you have the first phase led by Hogberg, Chabot, and mostly two-way, low-risk forwards in White, Brown, Norris, Tkachuk, Batherson. The acquisitions of Gustavsson, Brannstrom and JBD signify the start of the second phase, and Thomson this year adds to that. With a likely top five pick next year, hopefully three total picks in the first round, and three more in the second, and then a first and three more second rounders in 2021, now we begin the forward section of phase two. We took a bunch of college kids last year, and watch for more college kids and Europeans in the rest of this draft. In the next two drafts there will be more junior players, and we will be swinging for the fences, looking for high-end offensive weapons.

See, when you're doing a full-scale rebuild like this, for the first phase you're looking for low-risk players because you just want to get solid NHL players in the lineup and become competitive, and you want them to be two-way, low-flash players, so that you can keep them on reasonable contracts through their mid-twenties. Then for the second phase you can take more risks, and you want to find a couple of gamebreakers who might end up making big money down the road, but provide cheap, high end talent early on while the first phase players are in their primes. If even four of our big five young forwards pan out as top six forwards, and at least one or two of the next tier (Formenton, Balcers, Chlapik, Abramov) pan out as top nine forwards, then we’re putting ourselves in pretty good position.

Chabot is the linchpin of this whole rebuild, so we'll want to give ourselves the best possible chance to win a Cup before he becomes UFA eligible in 2024. Hopefully we can lock him up long term and eat into a year or two of his UFA, but I’m only mildly hopeful. With a couple more years of development of that first-phase core group, and a couple of shrewd trades and free-agent signings, we should be able to be a competitive team by 2021 or ’22 for sure.

But you don’t win Cups with just a safe, two-way team. You need some gamebreakers. So the later rounds of this draft and especially those eight picks in the first three rounds next year are going to be absolutely crucial. A couple of those second and third rounders in 2020 and especially ‘21 should be traded to help move things along, but most of them will be used on high-risk, high-reward forwards. We’ll have that top five forward next year, be it Lafreniere, Byfield, Lundell, Holtz or whoever, and that player should be in the lineup for 2020/’21, and should be approaching prime and still on ELC by 2022/’23. And that is where our window will open as legitimate Cup contenders. Brannstrom should be in the NHL next year, and in his prime by ‘23, and we’ll be looking to get Thomson and JBD into the lineup by ‘21 (hopeful for one year of Liiga and then one year of AHL for Thomson, and one more year of college and then one year of AHL for JBD), so by 2023/’24 they’ll be in their second or third years, and should be reliable NHLers still on affordable contracts. If at least two of those big three D prospects pan out as top four D, we’ll be in a really good position.

Then those high-risk, high-impact forwards we take in the second and third round of 2019 and the first through third rounds in 2020 – if we can hit on at least one, maybe even two of them (in addition to Byfield), then they should be ready to come into the league by ’22, and by 2023 or ’24 you’ve got another cheap forward or two with game-breaking skill. So we should have at least a solid two or three year window as legit contenders starting from 2022/'23. And since we’ll have the first phase players mostly still on reasonable contracts through their mid-twenties, and the second phase gamebreakers still on ELC or second contracts, this plan is realizable even regardless of ownership and spending issues.

Excellent post! Seems like it might line up with fyous, so maybe this is indeed the plan.

I guess we’ll find out, but it does look we’re building from the net out.

Getting that character core in place first seems important as well, so that additional pieces have a culture to fit into.

Personally I think BT, White, Chabot are a great core to start with, and with BTs high opinion of Norris, he should fit in great as well.

Our killer B’s from Brampton should add a nice dose. Up front skill, and Branstrom and Jarod look to add a shot of skill and jam on the back end.

I really like the look of this group so far.

 

[aragorn]

The defence is too soft for my liking, they should be a good regular season defence, but they could have trouble in the playoffs when they are targeted on every shift. Will these guys take a hit to make a play or will they bail? And who is going to stand up for them since it looks like few of them can do it for themselves. And then there are the injuries that pile up when you are the constant target of the opposition.

 

[dumbdick]

OK, so I've been talking for years about this idea of a biphasic, or polyphasic, rebuild. I got the idea from St. Louis, so they are still the prototype for me, but Winnipeg has been another good example, and I'm sure there are others.

So let me start with the basics. This won't be new information to anyone, but just so we all know where I’m coming from. Every rebuild, or every phase of a rebuild, should start from the net out, in accordance with the development time for each position. As very rough rules of thumb, I like to say five to seven years from draft before goalies will make the NHL, and eight to ten years from draft to reach prime. For defensemen, you're typically looking at four to six years from draft to make the NHL, and seven to nine years to reach prime. For forwards, you can get them to the NHL three to five years after draft, and six to eight years from draft to reach prime. For first round picks you can often knock a year or two off of those numbers, and for high first rounders all bets are off.

For St. Louis the rebuild started around 2006. To what extent this biphasic rebuild was a pre-arranged strategy by St. Louis is up for debate, but probably it became clear to them what they were doing as it happened, and certainly for Winnipeg it was to some extent pre-arranged. The Blues started by bringing in a good initial core group of mostly two-way, low-risk prospects and young players in Backes, Oshie, Erik Johnson, Perron, Berglund, Ian Cole, Eller, Lehtera. Then as this young core started to come together in the NHL, the Blues began the second phase of the rebuild, starting in net and on D with Jake Allen, Pietrangelo and David Rundblad, and then they started going for more high-end skilled forwards with Tarasenko, Schwartz, Fabbri, and adding defensemen like Parayko and Edmundson.

This looks to be exactly what Ottawa is trying to do. Here you have the first phase led by Hogberg, Chabot, and mostly two-way, low-risk forwards in White, Brown, Norris, Tkachuk, Batherson. The acquisitions of Gustavsson, Brannstrom and JBD signify the start of the second phase, and Thomson this year adds to that. With a likely top five pick next year, hopefully three total picks in the first round, and three more in the second, and then a first and three more second rounders in 2021, now we begin the forward section of phase two. We took a bunch of college kids last year, and watch for more college kids and Europeans in the rest of this draft. In the next two drafts there will be more junior players, and we will be swinging for the fences, looking for high-end offensive weapons.

See, when you're doing a full-scale rebuild like this, for the first phase you're looking for low-risk players because you just want to get solid NHL players in the lineup and become competitive, and you want them to be two-way, low-flash players, so that you can keep them on reasonable contracts through their mid-twenties. Then for the second phase you can take more risks, and you want to find a couple of gamebreakers who might end up making big money down the road, but provide cheap, high end talent early on while the first phase players are in their primes. If even four of our big five young forwards pan out as top six forwards, and at least one or two of the next tier (Formenton, Balcers, Chlapik, Abramov) pan out as top nine forwards, then we’re putting ourselves in pretty good position.

Chabot is the linchpin of this whole rebuild, so we'll want to give ourselves the best possible chance to win a Cup before he becomes UFA eligible in 2024. Hopefully we can lock him up long term and eat into a year or two of his UFA, but I’m only mildly hopeful. With a couple more years of development of that first-phase core group, and a couple of shrewd trades and free-agent signings, we should be able to be a competitive team by 2021 or ’22 for sure.

But you don’t win Cups with just a safe, two-way team. You need some gamebreakers. So the later rounds of this draft and especially those eight picks in the first three rounds next year are going to be absolutely crucial. A couple of those second and third rounders in 2020 and especially ‘21 should be traded to help move things along, but most of them will be used on high-risk, high-reward forwards. We’ll have that top five forward next year, be it Lafreniere, Byfield, Lundell, Holtz or whoever, and that player should be in the lineup for 2020/’21, and should be approaching prime and still on ELC by 2022/’23. And that is where our window will open as legitimate Cup contenders. Brannstrom should be in the NHL next year, and in his prime by ‘23, and we’ll be looking to get Thomson and JBD into the lineup by ‘21 (hopeful for one year of Liiga and then one year of AHL for Thomson, and one more year of college and then one year of AHL for JBD), so by 2023/’24 they’ll be in their second or third years, and should be reliable NHLers still on affordable contracts. If at least two of those big three D prospects pan out as top four D, we’ll be in a really good position.

Then those high-risk, high-impact forwards we take in the second and third round of 2019 and the first through third rounds in 2020 – if we can hit on at least one, maybe even two of them (in addition to Byfield), then they should be ready to come into the league by ’22, and by 2023 or ’24 you’ve got another cheap forward or two with game-breaking skill. So we should have at least a solid two or three year window as legit contenders starting from 2022/'23. And since we’ll have the first phase players mostly still on reasonable contracts through their mid-twenties, and the second phase gamebreakers still on ELC or second contracts, this plan is realizable even regardless of ownership and spending issues.

Really good post. The only thing i'll add is this doesnt need to be a one-shot plan.

I think we can indefinitely maintain a solid core of two way guys that dont break the bank, plus some entry level stars. So long as we dont commit to any of those stars with big long-term deals or go big the first chance we get and empty the cupboards for a run. We can convert our star youth back into high picks whenever they're due to get paid big dollars, and just keep repeating the cycle indefinitely.

Keep the non-flashy core and cycle through high-end youth indefinitely. Budget team strategy that could work.

 

[topshelf15]

Could really get going if we bought a few high draft picks....Hello Carolina...
But we only seem to sell them here

 

[topshelf15]

The defence is too soft for my liking, they should be a good regular season defence, but they could have trouble in the playoffs when they are targeted on every shift. Will these guys take a hit to make a play or will they bail? And who is going to stand up for them since it looks like few of them can do it for themselves. And then there are the injuries that pile up when you are the constant target of the opposition.

Agreed ,BT will get himself into situations that will require a bit more backup on the ice as well...But the D does need some bite for sure,not Boro ...But an actual tough defender that can play in all situations

 

[BatherSeason]

Could really get going if we bought a few high draft picks

Or drafting forwards that can make an impact instead of passing them over for guys who may cost less in the long run.

 

[topshelf15]

Or drafting forwards that can make an impact instead of passing them over for guys who may cost less in the long run.

Yep,as long as the team is being run this way...The arena will be empty,fans no longer have hope nor trust the current ownership ..And for good reason

 

[Ice-Tray]

It’s looking more and more like another season of this kind of posting in here.

By the end of the week several posters will have convinced themselves, and each other, that we actually drafted our guys based on them being cheap down the road.

Should be good times

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Then those high-risk, high-impact forwards we take in the second and third round of 2019 and the first through third rounds in 2020 – if we can hit on at least one, maybe even two of them (in addition to Byfield), then they should be ready to come into the league by ’22, and by 2023 or ’24 you’ve got another cheap forward or two with game-breaking skill. So we should have at least a solid two or three year window as legit contenders starting from 2022/'23. And since we’ll have the first phase players mostly still on reasonable contracts through their mid-twenties, and the second phase gamebreakers still on ELC or second contracts, this plan is realizable even regardless of ownership and spending issues.

Well. we really didn't take any high-risk, high-impact forwards at all in this draft.

 

[Icelevel]

The defence is too soft for my liking, they should be a good regular season defence, but they could have trouble in the playoffs when they are targeted on every shift. Will these guys take a hit to make a play or will they bail? And who is going to stand up for them since it looks like few of them can do it for themselves. And then there are the injuries that pile up when you are the constant target of the opposition.

I agree with that. Was hoping to add some solid high iq dmen with size. I guess there is next year’s draft and trades to do that.
We have Jaros and ceci who have decent strength and size but they can definitely be upgraded on.

 

[BatherSeason]

It’s looking more and more like another season of this kind of posting in here.

You are truly kidding yourself if you think that HFBoards is the only place where people feel this way. Seems like you and others have been told this multiple times. The vocal minority exists elsewhere other that HFBoards.

 

[topshelf15]

You are truly kidding yourself if you think that HFBoards is the only place where people feel this way. Seems like you and others have been told this multiple times. The vocal minority exists elsewhere other that HFBoards.

In Montreal I talk to my friends at work,ditto Toronto... And they all say the same thing about Ottawa,without even knowing if Iam a fan of the team or not...Its not a secret,and is a major problem for this team

 

[aragorn]

Agreed ,BT will get himself into situations that will require a bit more backup on the ice as well...But the D does need some bite for sure,not Boro ...But an actual tough defender that can play in all situations

The problem on here anyway is that no matter who they bring in who is big & tough people on here will not want. Harpur has shown himself to be able to handle himself & most don't want him in the lineup, same for Boro. They mostly want these small soft fast little defencemen (like Brannstrom & Thomson) on every pairing & we have seen in this yr's playoffs what happens when that is all you have on the backend. How are these guys going to be able to take the hits coming from a guy like Tom Wilson? He will dominate our team as our team has been dominated in the past by tough guys. PM had to dress Carkner to punch Boyle out for hitting EK, GB had to dress Neil to punch out Glass to stop the momentum he was building. BM dressed McGratton to punch out Domi ending their physical dominance of the Sens. Whether people believe it or not it's still a thing in the NHL & St Louis showed that they were not going to be intimidated by the Bruins tough style of play & not only matched it, but surpassed it.

Every coach will look at Ottawa's small defence & they will target them & look to take them out with every hit, every chance they get. These small defencemen are usually very good regular season players but when it gets to the playoffs & it gets serious & money, reputations & jobs are on the line the tough start hitting & look to intimidate & look to punish the best players. How much punishment these guys can take remains to be seen over the course of a 7 game series & it takes four series to win a cup. We have witnessed first hand how teams targeted EK in the playoffs & how his injuries caught up to him. IMO they need at least two or three Weber type D on defence, preferably on each side, guys who can clear the front of the net, take the hits, play on the PK, contribute offensively & stand up for teammates when necessary.

 

[BatherSeason]

The problem on here anyway is that no matter who they bring in who is big & tough people on here will not want. Harpur has shown himself to be able to handle himself & most don't want him in the lineup, same for Boro

Harpur and Boro would have a tough time cracking the top 6 of any team in the NHL except for the Ottawa Senators.

Speaking of Harpur, has Dorion traded him yet, or is Dorion gonna have him block a roster spot from a developing dman?

 

[topshelf15]

The problem on here anyway is that no matter who they bring in who is big & tough people on here will not want. Harpur has shown himself to be able to handle himself & most don't want him in the lineup, same for Boro. They mostly want these small soft fast little defencemen (like Brannstrom & Thomson) on every pairing & we have seen in this yr's playoffs what happens when that is all you have on the backend. How are these guys going to be able to take the hits coming from a guy like Tom Wilson? He will dominate our team as our team has been dominated in the past by tough guys. PM had to dress Carkner to punch Boyle out for hitting EK, GB had to dress Neil to punch out Glass to stop the momentum he was building. BM dressed McGratton to punch out Domi ending their physical dominance of the Sens. Whether people believe it or not it's still a thing in the NHL & St Louis showed that they were not going to be intimidated by the Bruins tough style of play & not only matched it, but surpassed it.

Every coach will look at Ottawa's small defence & they will target them & look to take them out with every hit, every chance they get. These small defencemen are usually very good regular season players but when it gets to the playoffs & it gets serious & money, reputations & jobs are on the line the tough start hitting & look to intimidate & look to punish the best players. How much punishment these guys can take remains to be seen over the course of a 7 game series & it takes four series to win a cup. We have witnessed first hand how teams targeted EK in the playoffs & how his injuries caught up to him. IMO they need at least two or three Weber type D on defence, preferably on each side, guys who can clear the front of the net, take the hits, play on the PK, contribute offensively & stand up for teammates when necessary.

Totally agree,The defense will need some more beef,and be more balanced as far as the skill quota on the right and left..

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Those big tough d-men on St. Louis and Boston were actually good at defence. They weren’t there just to intimidate guys.

 

[aragorn]

Harpur and Boro would have a tough time cracking the top 6 of any team in the NHL except for the Ottawa Senators.

Speaking of Harpur, has Dorion traded him yet, or is Dorion gonna have him block a roster spot from a developing dman?

A lot of teams in the NHL have a defencemen or two like those two, Engelland in LV, Schenn in Van, Orpik in Wash, Chara in Boston, McQuaig & Savard in Columbus, etc... and there are others that will become that as they get older & their skills begin to diminish like Trouba for example. There was talk from GB I think about possibly trading Harpur at the draft but whether that's conjecture or fact is anybodies guess. If the NHL is transitioning to smaller defencmen, I'm not sure PD will be able to trade those two over the course of the next yr.

 

[Ice-Tray]

You are truly kidding yourself if you think that HFBoards is the only place where people feel this way. Seems like you and others have been told this multiple times. The vocal minority exists elsewhere other that HFBoards.

I’m only talking about in here, because this is where I am and where I talk and read about the Sens for the most part. I’m not going to comment on what things are like around where you are, because I don’t know. I’m willing to take your word for it

Many posters are apathetic, many are upset, many are angry, lots are boycotting, and every second post is already cheap shot at the owner or management (or Boro/Ceci), and it’s been this way for over a year now.

Not everyone goes off the deep end with the conspiracy theories though, and future budget based drafting is a doozy.

In my opinion we really don’t need to add crap to what is already a difficult place to have discussions. That’s all I’m really saying here.

 

[topshelf15]

Those big tough d-men on St. Louis and Boston were actually good at defence. They weren’t there just to intimidate guys.

Carlo and Pyrenko.....Yes please

 

[Ice-Tray]

I definitely want a tougher team than we have had. One thing I have liked about Harpur is that he has no problems dropping the gloves, and seems to win all of his fights.

If he could play better he’s be a huge asset in my books

 

[Micklebot]

Not everyone goes off the deep end with the conspiracy theories though, and future budget based drafting is a doozy.

I assumed people were making jokes when they posted stuff like that. If anyone seriously believes we would draft guys because they would cost less long term that is next level crazy imo...

I get some people are really jaded about the team but i think you still need to give the benefit of the doubt and assume sarcasm.