Thoughts on the rebuild? PART 2

[Micklebot]

Will any of the players you mentioned be here in 4 years? No. Kind of a waste saying so.

So...any team ever have 3 1OAs? Like ever? Seriously. Ever? Other the Edmonton.

Lots of contenders without needing 3 firsts overall

Daigle, Phillips, Berard (plus Bonk at 3rd and Yashin at 2nd)

If you mean just in a row, as opposed to very close together, Quebec did it (89-91). Mtl came close in the late 60's and early 70's with 3 in four years finishing off with Lafleur.

 

[JD1]

If you believe a NTC is part of what constitutes a fair market deal for elite players, isn't that pretty much exactly what he's saying?

I mean, not many players eligible for a NTC signing for 8+ mil per don't have a very strong NTC or a full NMC. In fact, I think only Johansen from NSH doesn't have one.

Interestingly, Duchene actually only got a modified NTC for the final 3 years which on it's surface seems a massive outlier when looking at other players, but I seem to recall Nashville having a policy to not give out NTC at all, I think the only other deal they have signed that included one was Rinne.

Can you think of a more polarizing elite player than Karlsson? Geezus he was polarizing before his ankle.

Going 11 by 8 ok. I can see that. Going 11 by 8 with an NTC for a particular player I can see as a no go hockey decision.

I don't see it as a foregone conclusion that a player must have an ntc. Situations are different.

Of our 3, the guy I would have been most inclined to give one to was Duchene .... buts that me. Others may think differently.

 

[JD1]

Daigle, Phillips, Berard (plus Bonk at 3rd and Yashin at 2nd)

If you mean just in a row, as opposed to very close together, Quebec did it (89-91). Mtl came close in the late 60's and early 70's with 3 in four years finishing off with Lafleur.

60s and 70s were quite different

Quebec...hmmm...ok I had to think about that...I missed Lindros I guess because I never thought of him as a nordique

 

[Micklebot]

Can you think of a more polarizing elite player than Karlsson? Geezus he was polarizing before his ankle.

Going 11 by 8 ok. I can see that. Going 11 by 8 with an NTC for a particular player I can see as a no go hockey decision.

I don't see it as a foregone conclusion that a player must have an ntc. Situations are different.

Of our 3, the guy I would have been most inclined to give one to was Duchene .... buts that me. Others may think differently.

Sure, I can see teams not being willing to put in the NTC/NMC. But on the market, he's going to have multiple teams willing to take that risk because the payoff is landing a guy that can be the best Dman in the league. There's risk, but there's also massive reward potential.

The reality is though, if the ankle causes problems the NTC isn't going to be what prevents you from trading him, so it's kind of a moot point. The risk with a NTC is killing his value by removing buyers from the market. If his level of play tanks because of his health, who cares about a NTC. Ryan without a NTC would be no easier to move, his NTC is irrelevant.

 

[Samsquanch]

While I certainly appreciate the optimism of your post (something that is admittedly needed at times around here) I don't know how you can look at this team and say that Chabot and Tkachuk have an ELITE supporting cast. I'm aware you mean in terms of the prospect pool and what they can provide in the future, but there's still a couple of problems with your assessment, imo.

1) Some of these kids will bust. No one can say for sure who it will be or how far that will set the rebuild back, but what we do know for sure is that > 50% of the guys will either bust out completely or fail to reach the high expectations heaped on them by the fanbase. Depending on who that is (Batherson, Brown, Brannstrom) it has the potential to leave a giant hole in the lineup and set the rebuild back a few years.

2) There is still the over-arching ownership issue hanging over this franchise. It's great to have the best collection of young talent in the league (we don't have that, but let's assume we did) there would still be concerns about being able to keep that group together under Melnyk. We've already been through this rodeo once before when PD and EM assured fans that Karlsson, Stone, Hoffman, Turris/Duchene, ect would be signed when the time was right. That's not even getting into the fact that the front office is being run as a "bare bones" operation and we're a team that consistently invests less than our competitors into the coaching staff. That (typically) isn't a recipe for any kind of sustained success (just look at the Arizona's and Florida's of the last decade). Money doesn't buy a championship, but poverty (or a lack of wanting to spend) sure as hell doesn't either. Fans are going to start believing in "the plan" when we see our young stars get locked up, until then it's just more talk from an organization that has done too much of it these last few years.

Im saying that a core of Chabot, Tkachuk, and Byfield/Lafreniere would be incredible to build around. And yes - White, Batherson, Brannstrom, JBD, Thompson, Brown, Formenton, ect ect ect ect, would be an elite supporting cast for our stars imo.

Yes some of them will bust, but we have at least 12 really solid prospects right now that all have a legit shot at being full time NHLers, and some mystery boxes like Crookshank or Davidson that could end up surprising everyone. Point being is we dont need every prospect in the organization to work out, we're loaded deep as it is with many more to come.

I guess Im counting my eggs before they hatch, but it doesnt change my optimism that this could go really well for us. I like watching young teams personally, and cant wait to see what happens with development and drafting over the next 2 years.

 

[Ice-Tray]

There is a huge difference between a run of the mill 10-12 team NTC, and an NMC.

I personally would rather that we didn’t give out NMCs at all. I personally think that EK and Stone have deals that their respective teams will regret in 4-5 years.

I mean for us that would be 20 million of our budget locked into two players in their 30’s. Not many players in the league are worth anywhere close to that at that age (these two are two that might, that’s obviously the gamble).

That’s why I’m all for a crazy deal or two if you’re locking up a player’s prime, but in EK’s situation, that’s 8 years coming out of his prime.

We can’t afford that, and shouldn’t be trying until it’s established that we can be a regular cap team if needed.

 

[JD1]

Im saying that a core of Chabot, Tkachuk, and Byfield/Lafreniere would be incredible to build around. And yes - White, Batherson, Brannstrom, JBD, Thompson, Brown, Formenton, ect ect ect ect, would be an elite supporting cast for our stars imo.

Yes some of them will bust, but we have at least 12 really solid prospects right now that all have a legit shot at being full time NHLers, and some mystery boxes like Crookshank or Davidson that could end up surprising everyone. Point being is we dont need every prospect in the organization to work out, we're loaded deep as it is with many more to come.

I guess Im counting my eggs before they hatch, but it doesnt change my optimism that this could go really well for us. I like watching young teams personally, and cant wait to see what happens with development and drafting over the next 2 years.

I completely agree with you.

I think "franchise player" is getting thrown around too much these past few years but if we get one of those guys I think we are in superb shape.

Some of our young guys will hit their peak. Some won't. But given how many we have with legit NHL aspirations, we don't need them all hitting their peak.

I don't think you are counting your chickens before they are hatched. I think there's so much spent up frustration with Melnyk that it clouds assessing where we are.

 

[Sweatred]

Our prospect pool is deep but when you protect the top forward picks vs good playoff teams we are seriously lacking.

Brady may be the only player on our team who plays in the top 6 on Calgary, Toronto, Tampa etc.

Hopefully a few prospects develop into top 6 forwards (Batherson, White, Brown etc) but we clearly need to add 2 elite players.

We are also primed to moved a PM DMAN if Wolanin, JBD, JT continue to develop.

 

[BatherSeason]

Can you think of a more polarizing elite player than Karlsson? Geezus he was polarizing before his ankle.

Going 11 by 8 ok. I can see that. Going 11 by 8 with an NTC for a particular player I can see as a no go hockey decision.

I don't see it as a foregone conclusion that a player must have an ntc. Situations are different.

Of our 3, the guy I would have been most inclined to give one to was Duchene .... buts that me. Others may think differently.

So, you are OK with no NMC for a guy like Karlsson, or Duchene, but you are completely fine with the NTC handed out to Burrows, Smith, Hainsey, etc.? Just trying to follow here.

At least with a star player, if things aren't going the way the player or the org sees fit, there is generally a demand for the player out there. When you hand NTCs to players very few teams want, you are stuck with those players or at least very backed up into a corner when you do try to move them.

 

[JD1]

So, you are OK with no NMC for a guy like Karlsson, or Duchene, but you are completely fine with the NTC handed out to Burrows, Smith, Hainsey, etc.? Just trying to follow here.

At least with a star player, if things aren't going the way the player or the org sees fit, there is generally a demand for the player out there. When you hand NTCs to players very few teams want, you are stuck with those players or at least very backed up into a corner when you do try to move them.

Every situation is unique

There are a lot of veteran middle 6 type players that are family men that don't want to get relocated mid contract. The kind of guys that are signing 2 and 3 year deals and the no move clause is a differentiator for them. In some instances I have no issues with it

When you are talking stars that are signing long term ufa deals....again the situations are unique but there are a ton of guys around the league on albatross contracts. We already have Ryan. We can't afford others.

I'm quite a bit older than you. Karlsson is the best I've seen since prime Orr so it's not lost on me who he was. But that ankle injury is an issue and notwithstanding he's the best I've seen since Orr, if a no move clause was the difference between signing at 11 aav or not, I don't have an issue moving on.

The league is getting younger. Money is shifting to RFA deals and away from UFA deals and frankly I'm good with being in front of that.

Now...if we can't get our young guys signed...specifically Chabot and Tkachuk....then Eugene needs to sell or relocate

Hopefully he sells

 

[operasen]

I wonder if Dorion is thinking of a Chabot for Top 3 Draft pick next year, once he knows who gets what slot. That way he gets two of the top forwards and still has pretty good prospects on the D side. Pushed off the need to pay Chabot type money for another year or two (new owner) but keeps the buzz going.
It will be telling if Chabot is not contracted in the next few months long term.

 

[NorthCoast]

Sorry for the change of topic. Just couldn't help notice the difference new ownership is making in Carolina.



I know, I know...it's all just because they are winning and nothing to do with better management/ownership/leadership.

Except they had started to turn it around a year ago prior to this years success and clearly the brand/marketing strategy was having an impact.

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article215779855.html

Just a few highlights:

- Hired a marketing pro that had worked for Panthers (NFL) and Brooklyn Nets
- GM let marketing know their top pick prior to draft to give them head start on promotion of player
- Held a retro whalers night (mixed success)
- Launched Canes Pass (new owners idea: $100 for access to all games in a month)

Clearly a LOT of the changes are being driven by new ownership.

https://www.bardown.com/carolina-hu...ontroversial-plan-for-future-drafts-1.1226104

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/nhl/carolina-hurricanes/article226492975.html

Oh, he also cleared 160 mil of the teams 260 mil debt when he purchased the team. Why not all? Because Karmanos still has a 39 percent stake. Dundon has the option to buy the rest off Karmanos in 3 years at which point he will probably also pay off Karmanos share of the debt bringing down the amount that the team has to pay each year to cover interest on money used to buy the team to zero. Just like Vinik did in TB.

How much of Ottawa's original debt did EM pay off when he bought the team again?


Typical Disclaimer: Yes, management & debt are just two of several factors (not all in team control, ex: exchange rate) that need to improve for the team to have long-term viability in the market. But how much would it suck for the other factors to go our way and the team relocates because management and debt are still dragging the team down.

 

[stempniaksen]

Im saying that a core of Chabot, Tkachuk, and Byfield/Lafreniere would be incredible to build around. And yes - White, Batherson, Brannstrom, JBD, Thompson, Brown, Formenton, ect ect ect ect, would be an elite supporting cast for our stars imo.

Yes some of them will bust, but we have at least 12 really solid prospects right now that all have a legit shot at being full time NHLers, and some mystery boxes like Crookshank or Davidson that could end up surprising everyone. Point being is we dont need every prospect in the organization to work out, we're loaded deep as it is with many more to come.

I guess Im counting my eggs before they hatch, but it doesnt change my optimism that this could go really well for us. I like watching young teams personally, and cant wait to see what happens with development and drafting over the next 2 years.

If you're slotting Lafreniere/Byfield in there you're definitely counting your chickens before they hatch, imo. That being said, adding one of those guys definitely helps answer one of the major questions I have with this rebuild (potential superstar forward). I still think at least some of the Melnyk stuff I brought up could/will hold this team back if it's not addressed, but adding a top-2 pick next season (along with the rest of our draft ammo) to the current young core would put us on the right track.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Sorry for the change of topic. Just couldn't help notice the difference new ownership is making in Carolina.



I know, I know...it's all just because they are winning and nothing to do with better management/ownership/leadership.

Except they had started to turn it around a year ago prior to this years success and clearly the brand/marketing strategy was having an impact.

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article215779855.html

Just a few highlights:

- Hired a marketing pro that had worked for Panthers (NFL) and Brooklyn Nets
- GM let marketing know their top pick prior to draft to give them head start on promotion of player
- Held a retro whalers night (mixed success)
- Launched Canes Pass (new owners idea: $100 for access to all games in a month)

Clearly a LOT of the changes are being driven by new ownership.

https://www.bardown.com/carolina-hu...ontroversial-plan-for-future-drafts-1.1226104

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/nhl/carolina-hurricanes/article226492975.html

Oh, he also cleared 160 mil of the teams 260 mil debt when he purchased the team. Why not all? Because Karmanos still has a 39 percent stake. Dundon has the option to buy the rest off Karmanos in 3 years at which point he will probably also pay off Karmanos share of the debt bringing down the amount that the team has to pay each year to cover interest on money used to buy the team to zero. Just like Vinik did in TB.

How much of Ottawa's original debt did EM pay off when he bought the team again?


Typical Disclaimer: Yes, management & debt are just two of several factors (not all in team control, ex: exchange rate) that need to improve for the team to have long-term viability in the market. But how much would it suck for the other factors to go our way and the team relocates because management and debt are still dragging the team down.

I am going to say it is all about the marketing pro.

 

[operasen]

We need one desperately. But new ownership first

 

[NorthCoast]

I am going to say it is all about the marketing pro.

Watch the video clip in the last link.

I think it's clear that Dundon is an ideas guy as well, not that the marketing pro probably isn't also having a huge impact.


BTW: Cherry calls his teams jerks and he turns the whole thing positive. Can you imagine EM in that same situation? lol.

 

[GrantLemons]

Sorry for the change of topic. Just couldn't help notice the difference new ownership is making in Carolina.



I know, I know...it's all just because they are winning and nothing to do with better management/ownership/leadership.

Except they had started to turn it around a year ago prior to this years success and clearly the brand/marketing strategy was having an impact.

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article215779855.html

Just a few highlights:

- Hired a marketing pro that had worked for Panthers (NFL) and Brooklyn Nets
- GM let marketing know their top pick prior to draft to give them head start on promotion of player
- Held a retro whalers night (mixed success)
- Launched Canes Pass (new owners idea: $100 for access to all games in a month)

Clearly a LOT of the changes are being driven by new ownership.

https://www.bardown.com/carolina-hu...ontroversial-plan-for-future-drafts-1.1226104

https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/nhl/carolina-hurricanes/article226492975.html

Oh, he also cleared 160 mil of the teams 260 mil debt when he purchased the team. Why not all? Because Karmanos still has a 39 percent stake. Dundon has the option to buy the rest off Karmanos in 3 years at which point he will probably also pay off Karmanos share of the debt bringing down the amount that the team has to pay each year to cover interest on money used to buy the team to zero. Just like Vinik did in TB.

How much of Ottawa's original debt did EM pay off when he bought the team again?


Typical Disclaimer: Yes, management & debt are just two of several factors (not all in team control, ex: exchange rate) that need to improve for the team to have long-term viability in the market. But how much would it suck for the other factors to go our way and the team relocates because management and debt are still dragging the team down.

Great post. Classic example of what creative, progressive thinking ownership can do for a team. I yearn for the day we might see that with the Sens.

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

None of us need to be experts in business to figure out what the Sens are doing wrong and what others are doing right, because all you need is just some god damn common sense.

 

[GrantLemons]

None of us need to be experts in business to figure out what the Sens are doing wrong and what others are doing right, because all you need is just some god damn common sense.

"Eugene is doing everything he can" - Ruszkowski, I think. I'd love to hear what exactly they're doing outside of "The Se7enth" and knocking a few bucks off parking.

 

[BatherSeason]

"Eugene is doing everything he can" - Ruszkowski, I think. I'd love to hear what exactly they're doing outside of "The Se7enth" and knocking a few bucks off parking.

Has Ruszkowski been replaced yet, or we just gonna go with another empty chair?

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

I guess Im counting my eggs before they hatch, but it doesnt change my optimism that this could go really well for us. I like watching young teams personally, and cant wait to see what happens with development and drafting over the next 2 years.

Counting eggs BTH is not a good path to go down.

For well over a year, there were thousands of posts, posted here, slamming the Senators for trading away Jack Hughes.

Ends up in most cases, with the negative Nellies having egg all over their face(s)

 

[PeterSidorkiewicz]

Yeah the Senators definitely should NOT be slammed for trading away the 4th overall for a year and a half of Duchene.

They are indeed a quality organization run by the best people and I for one am super excited for the future.

I mean it’s such a great crop of organizational talent running things what could possibly go wrong?

When I think of some of the best run NHL franchises in my mind the Sens are always near the top of the list. Breathtaking talent.

 

[Micklebot]

Counting eggs BTH is not a good path to go down.

For well over a year, there were thousands of posts, posted here, slamming the Senators for trading away Jack Hughes.

Ends up in most cases, with the negative Nellies having egg all over their face(s)

Most people were saying we were likely to finish last (which we did) and that worst case scenario the pick we ended up given up becomes 4th OA (it did) and that the chance of drafting Hughes instead of Tkachuk was worth the risk of drafting what turned out to be Byram (remains to be seen, but Tkachuk is doing well, and Byram is projected to be a #1 Dman so still not a bad consolation prize).

Even with the benefit of hindsight the calculus still makes it a tough choice. I doubt Colorado would trade Byram for Tkachuk if we offered the swap today, and I'm sure many would prefer to keep Tkachuk, but as a rebuilding team, the potential of a home run with the chance to pick Hughes (or Kakko for that matter) made it a very appealing option, particularly seeing as the downside was a very good top end group in the 1 to 8 or so range of this past draft.

Things pretty much went down exactly as the advocates of giving up the 2018 pick said it would; worst case we could have gotten an equal quality or very close player.

The truth is the real downside to given up that 2018 pick was optics, but this team's optics have been so crushingly bad of late, I'm not sure they could have done any worse.

 

[Samsquanch]

Most people were saying we were likely to finish last (which we did) and that worst case scenario the pick we ended up given up becomes 4th OA (it did) and that the chance of drafting Hughes instead of Tkachuk was worth the risk of drafting what turned out to be Byram (remains to be seen, but Tkachuk is doing well, and Byram is projected to be a #1 Dman so still not a bad consolation prize).

Even with the benefit of hindsight the calculus still makes it a tough choice. I doubt Colorado would trade Byram for Tkachuk if we offered the swap today, and I'm sure many would prefer to keep Tkachuk, but as a rebuilding team, the potential of a home run with the chance to pick Hughes (or Kakko for that matter) made it a very appealing option, particularly seeing as the downside was a very good top end group in the 1 to 8 or so range of this past draft.

Things pretty much went down exactly as the advocates of giving up the 2018 pick said it would; worst case we could have gotten an equal quality or very close player.

The truth is the real downside to given up that 2018 pick was optics, but this team's optics have been so crushingly bad of late, I'm not sure they could have done any worse.

You make it sound it should have been an easy choice for the Sens, and that they should have passed on Tkachuk and kept this years pick. Thats total nonsense imo, and any fan that followed the team closely should know better. Its so disappointing to me to see good Sens posters like yourself have such a jaded view of reality right now.

The team we had post trade deadline was not the same team we had at last years draft.

Christ we still had Karlsson on the roster at that point. We still had hope that Stone and Duchene would be a part of the future and help carry the team out of the basement. We didnt know if Andy was going to have a bounce back year. We still didnt know if the Sens were more like the ECF finalist from the year before, or the 3rd worst team in the NHL.

There were so many variables at that point it was mind boggling.

Call Dorion a moron for bringing this onto himself (and I wont disagree with you), but the fact is that this Jekyll & Hyde group of players are just as much to blame for the catastrophic meltdown and collapse that we witnessed, and they made this a lose/lose situation for Dorion before he even made the call to keep the pick.

It was absolutely 100% the correct decision to draft Tkachuk though, even with the use of hindsight. We have enough high end D prospects, and aside from that, Tkachuk is obviously the superior prospect and has a higher value. Every GM in the league would kill to have Tkachuk on their roster, and we dont even know if Byram ever even plays a game right now (obviously not very likely but the point stands).

Yet another reason why I feel like there is a grand canyon sized gap between me and most of my fellow HF sens posters....

 

[Gil Gunderson]

Counting eggs BTH is not a good path to go down.

For well over a year, there were thousands of posts, posted here, slamming the Senators for trading away Jack Hughes.

Ends up in most cases, with the negative Nellies having egg all over their face(s)

Wow they sure showed us.