Thoughts on the Calgary Flames?

[Flameshomer]

So essentially they had a sustainable year and will score as many goals as last year? In which they ranked 17th in the league? I guess thats a solid bench mark and minimum to expect but not exactly lighting the world on fire

What? That's not even where your own post reply would logically take us...

Its not a under performance if you dont score at you career high in goals. Thats why its literally called a career high. There is like 0% chance more than 3 players (especially in top 6) will hit their career highs all in the same season

For reference- Career AVERAGES:

Monahan: 27, scored 27
Gaudreau: 26, scored 18
Brouwer: 19, scored 13
Frolik: 19, scored 17
Gio: 12, scored 12

If we used those, that's still an additional 16 goals just from forwards underperforming their averages. Additionally, Monahan and Gaudreau don't really have enough seasons under their belts to say they can't outscore their best (same with Ferland and Bennett who you left out).

 

[CraigsList]

Never said he couldnt, just said maybe dont expect it as a foregone conclusion, cause 78 points is elite, elite production. I mean Eberle scored 76 points in 78 games in his sophomore year as well (sandwiched between prorated 60 point years). Never returned to that production again

McDavid is coming off a 100 point season, and then was PPG+ in his rookie year. He has 2 years of evidence showing 100 is a safe bet. Gaudreau has 2 years of production showing a 65 point player, and 1 year of elite production that came a year ago.

Id say hes closer to a 70 point player, which is still extremely good and top 1st line production. But if your expecting PPG... eh whatever floats your boat, reach for the moon

... you're judging players that have only 2 or 3 seasons on their belt. You can't judge their point production.

 

[Aceboogie]

What? That's not even where your own post reply would logically take us...




If we used those, that's still an additional 16 goals just from forwards underperforming their averages. Additionally, Monahan and Gaudreau don't really have enough seasons under their belts to say they can't outscore their best (same with Ferland and Bennett who you left out).

Did the example for 5 players. Then used shooting % for entire team to show their year was sustainable as a whole.

... you're judging players that have only 2 or 3 seasons on their belt. You can't judge their point production.

1) So you can use a small sample size to say they are forsure getting 78 points again? But cant use it against them when they had a certain amount? Got it

2) We are quite literally talking about point production so yes we can

You got one poster in here saying Gaudreau will return to 78 point because he did that in 2015/16, you got others saying they dont have enough seasons under their belt so cant make a call. Which is it?

 

[belair]

Heh, you really want to quote the guy who's model your are showing here is predicting the flames to miss the playoffs, while the Oilers finish 9th in the League?

"We're going to suck. But it will be a balanced suck."

 

[HighLifeMan]

Bounce back to what? Their past career highs? Thats a pretty lofty expectations

The Flames as a team had a shooting % that ranked 14th in the league, aka average. In 2015, this year you keep referring to, ranked them 6th in the league (aka pretty lucky)

So your saying essentially the baseline for them is to have a shooting % that ranks them near the top of the NHL. At thats just the minimum to expect. I mean your expecting Gaudreau to return to a 75+ player because he did it one time in the league. Hes actually had 2 seasons at sub 65, and only 1 over. So maybe Gaudreaus 78 in 79 was an outlier? And what exactly in Bennett going to bounce back too? 36 points? Flat balls dont bounce all that high

I mean, not saying this cant happen, but the odds of it happening are extremely slim

Gaudreau played at a 70 point pace this past season(despite struggling heavily at times), and was essentially a point per game the year prior. So yes, I would say that is a fair estimate. He's an elite offensive talent. You must be able to notice and respect that.

And no, I am not saying that they have to match their career highs for what I am saying to occur

Let's say Gaudreau "bounces" back to 25 goals. +7 increase.
Let's say Bennett "bounces" back to 18 goals. +5 difference.

+12 increase without either having set career high. 238 goals scored.

That would place Calgary 7th in the league in 2015/2016 and 11th in 2016/2017

 

[CraigsList]

Did the example for 5 players. Then used shooting % for entire team to show their year was sustainable as a whole.



1) So you can use a small sample size to say they are forsure getting 78 points again? But cant use it against them when they had a certain amount? Got it

2) We are quite literally talking about point production so yes we can

You got one poster in here saying Gaudreau will return to 78 point because he did that in 2015/16, you got others saying they dont have enough seasons under their belt so cant make a call. Which is it?

Alright then, just as one mentioned Gaudreau was still on a 70 point pace. He missed 10 games.

 

[Aceboogie]

Gaudreau played at a 70 point pace this past season(despite struggling heavily at times), and was essentially a point per game the year prior. So yes, I would say that is a fair estimate. He's an elite offensive talent. You must be able to notice and respect that.

And no, I am not saying that they have to match their career highs for what I am saying to occur

Let's say Gaudreau "bounces" back to 25 goals. +7 increase.
Let's say Bennett "bounces" back to 18 goals. +5 difference.

+12 increase without either having set career high. 238 goals scored.

That would place Calgary 7th in the league in 2015/2016 and 11th in 2016/2017

And the players that have down years? or injuries? Or those just dont exist?

31 year old Versteeg who was on his 9th life as a NHL player takes a step back 11 goals: - 4 goals

Mikael Backlund who just hit a career high in goals suffers an injury or just doesnt match a career high and scores 16 goals (career average): - 6 goals

Oft injured, soon to be 34 year old Giordano has age catch up to him or sustains an injury and goes down to 7 goals: -5 goals

I mean the Flames were actually one of the healthiest teams in the NHL last year. Weve seen how cyclical injuries are year to year and how incredibly rare it is to get that fortunate with injuries 2 years in a row. So your not really accounting for injuries and simply under the assumption theyll be as lucky with injuries

1 or 2 major injuries will wipe out that 12 goal boost rather quickly

 

[Aceboogie]

Although to mention again, Flames are a good team, there is no questioning that.

 

[CraigsList]

And the players that have down years? or injuries? Or those just dont exist?

31 year old Versteeg who was on his 9th life as a NHL player takes a step back 11 goals: - 4 goals

Mikael Backlund who just hit a career high in goals suffers an injury or just doesnt match a career high and scores 16 goals (career average): - 6 goals

Oft injured, soon to be 34 year old Giordano has age catch up to him or sustains an injury and goes down to 7 goals: -5 goals

I mean the Flames were actually one of the healthiest teams in the NHL last year. Weve seen how cyclical injuries are year to year and how incredibly rare it is to get that fortunate with injuries 2 years in a row. So your not really accounting for injuries and simply under the assumption theyll be as lucky with injuries

1 or 2 major injuries will wipe out that 12 goal boost rather quickly

I understand that, we barely had any injuries last year. But, even with a 12 goal loss if that did happen, that gives opportunities for others to grab points, such as Bennett or Gaudreau. Big injuries can hurt a team but also give the opportunity for others to shine. Jankowski should be looked at this year.

 

[HighLifeMan]

And the players that have down years? or injuries? Or those just dont exist?

31 year old Versteeg who was on his 9th life as a NHL player takes a step back 11 goals: - 4 goals

Mikael Backlund who just hit a career high in goals suffers an injury or just doesnt match a career high and scores 16 goals (career average): - 6 goals

Oft injured, soon to be 34 year old Giordano has age catch up to him or sustains an injury and goes down to 7 goals: -5 goals

I mean the Flames were actually one of the healthiest teams in the NHL last year. Weve seen how cyclical injuries are year to year and how incredibly rare it is to get that fortunate with injuries 2 years in a row. So your not really accounting for injuries and simply under the assumption theyll be as lucky with injuries

1 or 2 major injuries will wipe out that 12 goal boost rather quickly

Major injuries can ruin any teams year. No point in discussing that matter.

We simply disagree. I believe and expect that Calgary has the talent and ability to be a top tier offensive team (top 10), you don't. Which is fine. This core has been in the top half of the league offensively for the past three years (8th, 11th, 15th) and are only getting better.

I get the concerns about the goaltending, I understand the skepticism that some have in regards to Gaudreau leading this team through a playoff run, etc.. This team is not perfect, but it can and will compete. Smith is the wildcard in terms of whether or not this roster can truly contend. Smith has shown to be a big game player in the past (despite the small sample size). Only time will tell.

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

And the players that have down years? or injuries? Or those just dont exist?

31 year old Versteeg who was on his 9th life as a NHL player takes a step back 11 goals: - 4 goals

Mikael Backlund who just hit a career high in goals suffers an injury or just doesnt match a career high and scores 16 goals (career average): - 6 goals

Oft injured, soon to be 34 year old Giordano has age catch up to him or sustains an injury and goes down to 7 goals: -5 goals

I mean the Flames were actually one of the healthiest teams in the NHL last year. Weve seen how cyclical injuries are year to year and how incredibly rare it is to get that fortunate with injuries 2 years in a row. So your not really accounting for injuries and simply under the assumption theyll be as lucky with injuries

1 or 2 major injuries will wipe out that 12 goal boost rather quickly

You're right, injuries could happen.

You're wrong in that all injury-free seasons are "lucky". The 2014-15 Flames thrived thanks to injuries as it allowed depth guys like Granlund, Jooris, and Ferland to get a look. That was good for 22 goals right there, and Ferland ultimately became a key contributor while Granlund became a tradeable asset.

The Flames were unlucky last year to be so injury free. Especially with how strong our prospect farm is right now. Successful teams will expect to have guys like Montour, or Sheary, or Guentzal, or Murray, get a try-out when an injury happens. You need those injuries to evaluate.

You need your stars to stay healthy enough, but overall if your roster is the same in April as it was in October, something went wrong. Which last year, was the lack of injuries, not a lack of push from below.

 

[Deplorable Lenny]

You're right, injuries could happen.

You're wrong in that all injury-free seasons are "lucky". The 2014-15 Flames thrived thanks to injuries as it allowed depth guys like Granlund, Jooris, and Ferland to get a look. That was good for 22 goals right there, and Ferland ultimately became a key contributor while Granlund became a tradeable asset.

The Flames were unlucky last year to be so injury free. Especially with how strong our prospect farm is right now. Successful teams will expect to have guys like Montour, or Sheary, or Guentzal, or Murray, get a try-out when an injury happens. You need those injuries to evaluate.

You need your stars to stay healthy enough, but overall if your roster is the same in April as it was in October, something went wrong. Which last year, was the lack of injuries, not a lack of push from below.

 

[blankall]

Never said he couldnt, just said maybe dont expect it as a foregone conclusion, cause 78 points is elite, elite production. I mean Eberle scored 76 points in 78 games in his sophomore year as well (sandwiched between prorated 60 point years). Never returned to that production again

McDavid is coming off a 100 point season, and then was PPG+ in his rookie year. He has 2 years of evidence showing 100 is a safe bet. Gaudreau has 2 years of production showing a 65 point player, and 1 year of elite production that came a year ago.

Id say hes closer to a 70 point player, which is still extremely good and top 1st line production. But if your expecting PPG... eh whatever floats your boat, reach for the moon

Gaudreau, scored at that 78 point pace during the later half of his rookie season. He also scored at above that pace during the later part of this season, after he had recovered from his injury.

So basically anytime that Gaudreau has been both healthy and given top line minutes, he has scored at or above a PPG pace.

 

[smackdaddy]

Gaudreau, scored at that 78 point pace during the later half of his rookie season. He also scored at above that pace during the later part of this season, after he had recovered from his injury.

So basically anytime that Gaudreau has been both healthy and given top line minutes, he has scored at or above a PPG pace.

Yeah that was before teams figured him out. Same story with eberle. The book is being written for gaudreau. Slap his wrist a bit and he folds. That is what I suspect being the real reason for the drop preproduction. In fact id wager Johnny hockey is just as good as his ppg year but defenseman just learned how to handle him.

 

[Aceboogie]

You're right, injuries could happen.

You're wrong in that all injury-free seasons are "lucky". The 2014-15 Flames thrived thanks to injuries as it allowed depth guys like Granlund, Jooris, and Ferland to get a look. That was good for 22 goals right there, and Ferland ultimately became a key contributor while Granlund became a tradeable asset.

The Flames were unlucky last year to be so injury free. Especially with how strong our prospect farm is right now. Successful teams will expect to have guys like Montour, or Sheary, or Guentzal, or Murray, get a try-out when an injury happens. You need those injuries to evaluate.

You need your stars to stay healthy enough, but overall if your roster is the same in April as it was in October, something went wrong. Which last year, was the lack of injuries, not a lack of push from below.

Ok, well if Johnny G gets injured in October well see how happy you are when he's replaced with Garrett Hathaway

 

[Retriever]

Yeah that was before teams figured him out. Same story with eberle. The book is being written for gaudreau. Slap his wrist a bit and he folds. That is what I suspect being the real reason for the drop preproduction. In fact id wager Johnny hockey is just as good as his ppg year but defenseman just learned how to handle him.

So, you basically advocating that the way to play Johnny is to slash his hands in order to break them, because he wasn't getting slapped just a little. Is this the strategy other teams should employ against McDavid?

 

[Speedo]

You're right, injuries could happen.

You're wrong in that all injury-free seasons are "lucky". The 2014-15 Flames thrived thanks to injuries as it allowed depth guys like Granlund, Jooris, and Ferland to get a look. That was good for 22 goals right there, and Ferland ultimately became a key contributor while Granlund became a tradeable asset.

The Flames were unlucky last year to be so injury free. Especially with how strong our prospect farm is right now. Successful teams will expect to have guys like Montour, or Sheary, or Guentzal, or Murray, get a try-out when an injury happens. You need those injuries to evaluate.

You need your stars to stay healthy enough, but overall if your roster is the same in April as it was in October, something went wrong. Which last year, was the lack of injuries, not a lack of push from below.

I can't believe you wrote this. There's a lot of words I could used to describe it but I'll just settle on 'weird'. Like, really? Am I supposed to wish your team 'luck' for next season?

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

I can't believe you wrote this. There's a lot of words I could used to describe it but I'll just settle on 'weird'. Like, really? Am I supposed to wish your team 'luck' for next season?

I can...OKG once again "Gaudreau=McDavid" and that the Flames were a "5-line deep team" that had the best chance of the Canadian teams to challenge for the Cup

they got swept

 

[Da McBomb]

I can't believe you wrote this. There's a lot of words I could used to describe it but I'll just settle on 'weird'. Like, really? Am I supposed to wish your team 'luck' for next season?

no kidding... if someone on the farm is THAT good and deserving of an NHL spot, you don't have to wait for an injury to call him up.

 

[Da McBomb]

So, you basically advocating that the way to play Johnny is to slash his hands in order to break them, because he wasn't getting slapped just a little. Is this the strategy other teams should employ against McDavid?

sure.. try slashing what you can't catch

Also, the Oilers have something that the Flames severely lack - and thats called team toughness and deterrence. Try hurting our star players and you'll face the consequences. Who do the Flames have that can stick up for little Johnny? Oh yah..

(NOTE: I actually like Giordano - he's a great leader and seems to be a great guy off the ice. But it's not good for the Flames if he feels like he has to be the enforcer because that shouldn't be his role)

 

[McFlyingV]

Heh, you really want to quote the guy who's model your are showing here is predicting the flames to miss the playoffs, while the Oilers finish 9th in the League?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DHh8GtgXgAAPRiE.jpg:large[IMG][/QUOTE]

Woof the dagger

Edit: And injuries are now apparently good? Man this guy never fails to deliver some comedy on this site.

 

[777]

5 good forwards. Very good D core.

Versteeg is extremely overrated in this thread. Flames need Jankowski and Bennett to take big steps forward (they both seem capable).

From what I saw Smith was left out to dry a lot in Arizona and I think he is being underrated due to that

 

[Speedo]

You're right, injuries could happen.

You're wrong in that all injury-free seasons are "lucky". The 2014-15 Flames thrived thanks to injuries as it allowed depth guys like Granlund, Jooris, and Ferland to get a look. That was good for 22 goals right there, and Ferland ultimately became a key contributor while Granlund became a tradeable asset.

The Flames were unlucky last year to be so injury free. Especially with how strong our prospect farm is right now. Successful teams will expect to have guys like Montour, or Sheary, or Guentzal, or Murray, get a try-out when an injury happens. You need those injuries to evaluate.

You need your stars to stay healthy enough, but overall if your roster is the same in April as it was in October, something went wrong. Which last year, was the lack of injuries, not a lack of push from below.

I can't believe you wrote this. There's a lot of words I could used to describe it but I'll just settle on 'weird'. Like, really? Am I supposed to wish your team 'luck' for next season?

 

[smackdaddy]

So, you basically advocating that the way to play Johnny is to slash his hands in order to break them, because he wasn't getting slapped just a little. Is this the strategy other teams should employ against McDavid?

I'm saying that's one tiny thing every defenseman used against him last year with great effectiveness, and serves as an example of what happens when a good player gets minimized. Can Johnny overcome something like that through his skillset? Who knows. Not too confident TBH. With eberle, you just had to be physical and that was it, he was no longer a threat and he couldn't overcome it to the point where it broke him mentally.

McDavid? McDavid's danger is his speed. It took one of the best forecheckers in the league to literally shadow him the entire series and nothing else for him to see a drop in production - something I'm confident a player like McDavid will overcome in the next playoffs. But then Drai stepped up and cleaned up. I don't think Johnny hockey has that supporting cast.

 

[Kovaz]

Gaudreau finished the year with 26 points in 23 games once Ferland got put on his line. In the playoffs, Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland were around 56% in xGF%, which ranked in the top 5 of all forward lines in the first round. If that's what "figured out" means, he'll be fine.

As for forward depth, I'd call it decent-to-good as it stands right now. The 3M line is 1st-line calibre, and Stajan + 2 interchangeable warm bodies is an above-average 4th line. All that's missing is an effective 3rd line, which hinges on Sam Bennett. If he becomes a 50+ point C, all of a sudden the depth is good-to-great.

For whatever reason, Bennett became completely snakebitten at 5v5 after he got taken off the 1st PP unit in December, and his point totals reflect that. Before that point, he was shooting 12% and producing at a rate of 1.90 P/60 - afterwards he dropped to 2% and 0.57 P/60. Some other players who produced close to 1.90 P/60 include Couture, Pavelski, Spezza, E. Staal, and Seguin, all of whom produce comfortably more than 50 points. So it's not crazy to think he'll bounce back.