Thoughts on TBL drawing Pittsburgh in the first round?

[chethejet]

Tampa doesn't have the pedigree of a two time cup winner. Tampa by most thinking is a big favorite to win. The facts are they got beat by the Pens and the Caps and until they do that, it is anyone's cup. Tampa doesn't have cups or a cup and have to beat teams that have them. Playoffs are a different animal and you never know what can happen. Pens healthy to me is the team to beat.

 

[KLM-Line]

Pens might have a chance ... in the conference final. Tampa is going to crush and stomp anything that crosses their path in the 1st round. Really any team faces being steamrolled and swept when the Lightning are still fresh and ready to prove the legitimacy of their regular season record.

 

[TampaBayLightning]

Tampa doesn't have the pedigree of a two time cup winner. Tampa by most thinking is a big favorite to win. The facts are they got beat by the Pens and the Caps and until they do that, it is anyone's cup. Tampa doesn't have cups or a cup and have to beat teams that have them. Playoffs are a different animal and you never know what can happen. Pens healthy to me is the team to beat.

I think I remember being at a game 7 when the bolts won a cup, maybe I was dreaming.

 

[Hank Plank]

Tampa doesn't have cups or a cup and have to beat teams that have them.

Tampa has as many Cups as the Caps.

 

[harmonica]

Tampa doesn't have the pedigree of a two time cup winner. Tampa by most thinking is a big favorite to win. The facts are they got beat by the Pens and the Caps and until they do that, it is anyone's cup. Tampa doesn't have cups or a cup and have to beat teams that have them. Playoffs are a different animal and you never know what can happen. Pens healthy to me is the team to beat.

It’s time to log off for the night and sober up. Tampa has a cup. They also have one of the best playoff records in the past handful of years. Their squad is stacked. Kucherov is having the best seasons in a long time. They have dominated the league all year. Anyone who doesn’t consider them a favourite or more properly the favourite is kidding themselves.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

I think I remember being at a game 7 when the bolts won a cup, maybe I was dreaming.

15 years ago with a completely different roster, coaching staff, and different era altogether.

Those of us old to remember it think fondly back on 2004 but it's completely irrelevant in this context.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

Pens fan here. If I had to bet significant bucks on which team wins the East, I would go with Tampa. But...

Pretty sure the President's winners have a poor record re winning the Cup.

Re the Pens-- they are getting hot at the right time. And Letang snd Rust will be back before playoffs.

Forget talent etc. IMO winning the Cup is a learned skill. In other words, a team that has done it before has an advantage in the hot and crazy cauldron of the playoffs. Were a a Tampa fan, I'd be hoping for the Islanders in the Eastern playoffs.

Don't feel like doing a long post about it again, so I'll just say this much - this is an overstated myth, and always has been.

The team that wins the Presidents' Trophy is one of 16 teams who make the playoffs. Which means, in any given season, the team who won the Presidents' Trophy has, without putting any weights, a 93.75% of not winning the Stanley Cup. In the last fifteen years, only two teams to win the PT have won the Stanley Cup. Guess what? 2 /15 = 13.3%, or a little over twice as likely as the unweighted odds would indicate.

So, no, the team who wins the Presidents' Trophy isn't very likely to win the Stanley Cup, because there are 15 playoff teams who didn't win it, and only one who did. Needless to say, the field has a huge advantage of winning it over a single isolated team.

So the team who wins the Presidents' Trophy has traditionally low odds of winning the Cup? Yeah, I don't care. Neither should anyone else. All it means is that people don't comprehend math particularly well.

 

[Oddbob]

Probably depends on how many good artists the Lightning have in the lockerroom.

 

[Gurglesons]

If the Pens continue their play right now. Pens vs Tampa ECF could possibly be a true treat.

 

[CallArnoldSlick]

Don't feel like doing a long post about it again, so I'll just say this much - this is an overstated myth, and always has been.

The team that wins the Presidents' Trophy is one of 16 teams who make the playoffs. Which means, in any given season, the team who won the Presidents' Trophy has, without putting any weights, a 93.75% of not winning the Stanley Cup. In the last fifteen years, only two teams to win the PT have won the Stanley Cup. Guess what? 2 /15 = 13.3%, or a little over twice as likely as the unweighted odds would indicate.

So, no, the team who wins the Presidents' Trophy isn't very likely to win the Stanley Cup, because there are 15 playoff teams who didn't win it, and only one who did. Needless to say, the field has a huge advantage of winning it over a single isolated team.

So the team who wins the Presidents' Trophy has traditionally low odds of winning the Cup? Yeah, I don't care. Neither should anyone else. All it means is that people don't comprehend math particularly well.

Yeah, but there are weights. That's the point of having seeds.

Look at other leagues' recent regular season champions and how they did in their playoffs.

AHL: 4 out of the past 7 won it all.
NBA: 4 out of the past 6
MLB: 2 out of the past 3
NFL: 2 out of the past 3

I get that the NHL has more parity, which is great. The unexpected nature of our playoffs is part of what makes it great. But Presidents' Trophy winners have often underperformed in this league versus valid expectations. Especially when compared to other sports.

If Tampa Bay doesn't go on a very deep run this year after a dominant regular season, it's a major disappointment.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

Yeah, but there are weights. That's the point of having seeds.

Look at other leagues' recent regular season champions and how they did in their playoffs.

AHL: 4 out of the past 7 won it all.
NBA: 4 out of the past 6
MLB: 2 out of the past 3
NFL: 2 out of the past 3

I get that the NHL has more parity, which is great. The unexpected nature of our playoffs is part of what makes it great. But Presidents' Trophy winners have often underperformed in this league versus valid expectations. Especially when compared to other sports.

If Tampa Bay doesn't go on a very deep run this year after a dominant regular season, it's a major disappointment.

It's extremely disingenuous to compare NHL (16 teams and four best-of-7 rounds) to MLB (eight teams, three rounds) and especially the NFL (12 teams, but the top-2 in each conference get 1st round byes and every game is a one-off) and then stagger the sample sizes as well. I used 15 years because that actually gave a low percentage to Presidents' Trophy winning teams; stretch it back to 20 years instead, and suddenly I think you've got five PT winning teams who win the Cup, and that 13.3% success is suddenly 25%.

Ok, so two of the last three teams with the best record in MLB won the World Series. Now, lets stretch the sample back to, hmm, how about 1999? Because the best record in MLB did not win the World Series in '99-'06, '08, '10-'12, '14-'15 and '17; in other words, 2007, 2009, 2013, 2016, and 2018. That sound suspiciously close to the NHL's best regular season team success rate at winning the championship, doesn't it?

You don't need to explain to a Tampa Bay fan that it's a Cup-or-bust season. We all know it and have taken that point-of-view from the opening game. I know I've said repeatedly that nobody here is going to care what we do in the regular season because nothing we do is going to impress anyone more than they already were with us previously; that what is going to define our season is what happens from the middle of April onward. Furthermore, you mention in the last paragraph that PT teams have "often underperformed" in the playoffs. You know what? What previous teams did, none of whom have been the Lightning at any point, in the playoffs has zero bearing on what's going to happen in the playoffs this time. Irrelevant as far as I'm concerned. And, yes, you can place weights, but are the weights we're placing? What are the reasonable odds for one specific team in a field of 16 to win the championship with respect to the other 15? I would probably say 12-15% is as far as we can possibly go. Guess what? That percentage I mentioned earlier - 13.3% - falls in that range. So I'm not sure what our problem is here. Sounds about right.

As a final bonus, using 1999 once again as my cutoff, I see that the NFL's best regular season team only (only) won the Super Bowl six times out of 20 in that time frame as well. There's been a swell in recent years; three of the last five have done so, but from 2004-2012, the best regular season team didn't win the Super Bowl at any point in those nine years. 2002 and 2013 ended up being by default since the two teams in the Super Bowl were tied for the best record.

In any case, we've got six NFL best regular season teams to win the Super Bowl, five NHL best regular season teams to win the Cup, and five MLB best regular season teams to win the World Series, all in the last 20 seasons of their respective leagues. So, take of that what you want.

 

[Ms Maggie]

Don't feel like doing a long post about it again, so I'll just say this much - this is an overstated myth, and always has been.

The team that wins the Presidents' Trophy is one of 16 teams who make the playoffs. Which means, in any given season, the team who won the Presidents' Trophy has, without putting any weights, a 93.75% of not winning the Stanley Cup. In the last fifteen years, only two teams to win the PT have won the Stanley Cup. Guess what? 2 /15 = 13.3%, or a little over twice as likely as the unweighted odds would indicate.

So, no, the team who wins the Presidents' Trophy isn't very likely to win the Stanley Cup, because there are 15 playoff teams who didn't win it, and only one who did. Needless to say, the field has a huge advantage of winning it over a single isolated team.

So the team who wins the Presidents' Trophy has traditionally low odds of winning the Cup? Yeah, I don't care. Neither should anyone else. All it means is that people don't comprehend math particularly well.

I understand math fine.

My statement was that P Trophy winners don't have a great record re winning the Cup.

13.3%

Not a great record. Certainly none of the teams who make the playoffs, in terms of straight probability, have a good chance. The point is winning the PT isn't a huge advantage.

That said, if the Pens can't get it done, I will be pulling for Tampa. Such a fun team to watch! The skill level is incredible. Plus I think it would be grest to see a southern team win it all.

 

[CallArnoldSlick]

It's extremely disingenuous to compare NHL (16 teams and four best-of-7 rounds) to MLB (eight teams, three rounds) and especially the NFL (12 teams, but the top-2 in each conference get 1st round byes and every game is a one-off) and then stagger the sample sizes as well. I used 15 years because that actually gave a low percentage to Presidents' Trophy winning teams; stretch it back to 20 years instead, and suddenly I think you've got five PT winning teams who win the Cup, and that 13.3% success is suddenly 25%.

Ok, so two of the last three teams with the best record in MLB won the World Series. Now, lets stretch the sample back to, hmm, how about 1999? Because the best record in MLB did not win the World Series in '99-'06, '08, '10-'12, '14-'15 and '17; in other words, 2007, 2009, 2013, 2016, and 2018. That sound suspiciously close to the NHL's best regular season team success rate at winning the championship, doesn't it?

You don't need to explain to a Tampa Bay fan that it's a Cup-or-bust season. We all know it and have taken that point-of-view from the opening game. I know I've said repeatedly that nobody here is going to care what we do in the regular season because nothing we do is going to impress anyone more than they already were with us previously; that what is going to define our season is what happens from the middle of April onward. Furthermore, you mention in the last paragraph that PT teams have "often underperformed" in the playoffs. You know what? What previous teams did, none of whom have been the Lightning at any point, in the playoffs has zero bearing on what's going to happen in the playoffs this time. Irrelevant as far as I'm concerned. And, yes, you can place weights, but are the weights we're placing? What are the reasonable odds for one specific team in a field of 16 to win the championship with respect to the other 15? I would probably say 12-15% is as far as we can possibly go. Guess what? That percentage I mentioned earlier - 13.3% - falls in that range. So I'm not sure what our problem is here. Sounds about right.

As a final bonus, using 1999 once again as my cutoff, I see that the NFL's best regular season team only (only) won the Super Bowl six times out of 20 in that time frame as well. There's been a swell in recent years; three of the last five have done so, but from 2004-2012, the best regular season team didn't win the Super Bowl at any point in those nine years. 2002 and 2013 ended up being by default since the two teams in the Super Bowl were tied for the best record.

In any case, we've got six NFL best regular season teams to win the Super Bowl, five NHL best regular season teams to win the Cup, and five MLB best regular season teams to win the World Series, all in the last 20 seasons of their respective leagues. So, take of that what you want.

I think it's more disingenuous to try and claim top regular season teams should have the same success odds as bottom seeds, in any sport. There's a million reasons why you can't make direct comparisons beteween the leagues, playoff structure being one. The point was to compare regular season success to playoff success in each league.

And I mean, good historical stats, but there is a reason I said recent champions. I was discussing the NHL's comparison to other leagues in recent years. Each of the other leagues have their dominant regular season teams continue to have success in the playoffs. The post-lockout NHL never really had that level of success.

Now that Tampa is having a Golden State/New England style dominant season. If they blow it in the first two rounds, like some recent President winners have done, it's a major failure.

 

[DrMartinVanNostrand]

I'm not arguing against the inclusion of weights; I even gave reference to what kind of weights should be placed on a #1 overall seed. If the percent range I gave - 12-15% - is too low for your taste, I'm all ears for hearing why (not saying I'll agree, but I'll at least listen). I'm not going to suggest that the #1 overall seed and the #16 overall seed are both 6.25% likely to win the Cup from an expectation POV, a matchup POV, or a talent POV, obviously. Very, very rarely is a #16 overall seed going to be of Cup quality*. Understood. But my point, and what my (arbitrarily-selected) sample size indicated is that, even in a run of years where Presidents' Trophy teams have not been very successful, their success rate is still, well, pretty much in what I think is a reasonable range. And so, pardon my defensiveness which I admit is on display a bit, but, frankly, I feel like this argument that is raised across all sports about "well, the best team doesn't usually win" something people hang on as a lazy crutch to be critical and poke holes at the best team without making any real effort to poke, you know, actual holes and tell anyone legitimate reasons why they might not end up being as successful as they want to be.

The #1 overall seed in the NHL will, generally, be a very good team with Stanley Cup aspirations. You know who else will often get a tick on that checklist? The #2 overall team, and the #3, and odds are the teams from, I dunno, #4 down to #6-#7 or so. The Presidents' Trophy winning team of 2018 finished with 117 points. They were eliminated in a 7-game series at the hands of the #2 overall team, who finished with 114 points. Negligible difference. Upset in technical terms, not in qualitative terms; the difference points-wise between those teams is nothing more than a handful of OT and SO results going the opposite ways.

To briefly reiterate - the expectations in Tampa and outside Tampa alike are to win the Cup. We all expect it, and we'll all be disappointed if it doesn't happen. But, you know, odds are we're not going to do it. Because the odds are stacked against us. But the odds are stacked against everybody, individually. So it goes. Nothing of what I've said in this thread will dull the pain of losing, if and when that happens. No need to worry about that. These words form a very flimsy shield. Easily penetrated.

*and the one time we had a #16 overall reach the Final in recent years - '17 Nashville - it was generally understood they were a better team than their record indicated, and I expected them to beat Chicago in round one that year and then favored them in each successive matchup until the Final

 

[CallArnoldSlick]

I'm not arguing against the inclusion of weights; I even gave reference to what kind of weights should be placed on a #1 overall seed. If the percent range I gave - 12-15% - is too low for your taste, I'm all ears for hearing why (not saying I'll agree, but I'll at least listen). I'm not going to suggest that the #1 overall seed and the #16 overall seed are both 6.25% likely to win the Cup from an expectation POV, a matchup POV, or a talent POV, obviously. Very, very rarely is a #16 overall seed going to be of Cup quality*. Understood. But my point, and what my (arbitrarily-selected) sample size indicated is that, even in a run of years where Presidents' Trophy teams have not been very successful, their success rate is still, well, pretty much in what I think is a reasonable range. And so, pardon my defensiveness which I admit is on display a bit, but, frankly, I feel like this argument that is raised across all sports about "well, the best team doesn't usually win" something people hang on as a lazy crutch to be critical and poke holes at the best team without making any real effort to poke, you know, actual holes and tell anyone legitimate reasons why they might not end up being as successful as they want to be.

The #1 overall seed in the NHL will, generally, be a very good team with Stanley Cup aspirations. You know who else will often get a tick on that checklist? The #2 overall team, and the #3, and odds are the teams from, I dunno, #4 down to #6-#7 or so. The Presidents' Trophy winning team of 2018 finished with 117 points. They were eliminated in a 7-game series at the hands of the #2 overall team, who finished with 114 points. Negligible difference. Upset in technical terms, not in qualitative terms; the difference points-wise between those teams is nothing more than a handful of OT and SO results going the opposite ways.

To briefly reiterate - the expectations in Tampa and outside Tampa alike are to win the Cup. We all expect it, and we'll all be disappointed if it doesn't happen. But, you know, odds are we're not going to do it. Because the odds are stacked against us. But the odds are stacked against everybody, individually. So it goes. Nothing of what I've said in this thread will dull the pain of losing, if and when that happens. No need to worry about that. These words form a very flimsy shield. Easily penetrated.

*and the one time we had a #16 overall reach the Final in recent years - '17 Nashville - it was generally understood they were a better team than their record indicated, and I expected them to beat Chicago in round one that year and then favored them in each successive matchup until the Final

I get what you are saying, and I agree the Presidents' Trophy winner shouldn't have their names penciled on the Cup.

I think the fact 7 of the past 10 winners haven't made it past the 2nd round shows there is some credibility to claims of them underperforming versus expectations. Especially with how other leagues have been shaping out.

But beyond all that. I think the biggest thing this year is how good Tampa Bay has been compared to everyone else. The team is crushing the standings, their best player is greatly outscoring everyone. If they go out early... oof. And this isn't some sort of early diss at them or their fans. I like the Bolts and would like to see them win if my team is eliminated. But if they blow it hard, they could end up as the face of blundering Presidents' Trophy winners.

 

[Alan Wake]

Oof, Tampa losing 2-0 to Detroit of all teams.

Oof. This is what we call a premature post.

Caps are the one team who don't fear Tampa, having beaten a similarly powerful Lightning team last year.
Caps have a big psychological edge there. Everyone else is going to play Tampa scared.

I actually agree. But I feel like with Washington, there's a score to settle. I'm sure the team feels that way as well.

Certainly not a slight at all. If anything, it's a mighty compliment.

Even with how good they're playing this year, Game 6 and Game 7 will be in the back of their minds. Anybody that says otherwise is kidding themselves.

Washington is the only team in the span of almost two years that just completely destroyed them - on numerous occasions.

 

[Flair Hay]

Would love it. Would either mean Pens getting bounced early, or Lightning bowing out early after a monster reg season

Tldr one will lose and that's good

 

[Allie Kitsune]

I mean, whatever.

I'd prefer the Pens win, but Tampa would rightfully be favorites.

There are no guarantees in the NHL.

 

[BigEezyE22]

I think I remember being at a game 7 when the bolts won a cup, maybe I was dreaming.

Think of all those players from 15 years ago that will be playing in April.

 

[kladorf2005]

Short of a Pens collapse, this match-up is highly unlikely to happen in the first round. They've got a 6 point cushion on 8th place with 11 games to go. Not impossible, but also not likely.

@drmartinvannostrand is right about PT odds btw.

• NHL: 4 series wins = 0.5^4 = 6.25%
• NBA: 4 series wins = 0.5^4 = 6.25%
• NFL: 3 wins needed = 0.5^3 = 12.5%
• MLB: 3 series needed = 0.5^3 = 12.5%

RS champs of NFL and MLB are twice as likely to win because they need 1 fewer victory to do so. So whoever made that comparison doesn't understand math (despite what they claim)

The 13.3% recent history of NHL PT winners means they are more than twice as likely to win the cup than the average team. Anyone who thinks that's a poor record, literally doesn't understand math. No matter how much they say they do. The equivalent number in MLB/NFL would have to be 26.6%. Anything less would actually be more of a 'failure' than what the NHL PT winners have done.

 

[Bladerunner]

Don't feel like doing a long post about it again, so I'll just say this much - this is an overstated myth, and always has been.

Yes and as a statistician I get tired of responding to SC "curse" posts too

The team that wins the Presidents' Trophy is one of 16 teams who make the playoffs. Which means, in any given season, the team who won the Presidents' Trophy has, without putting any weights, a 93.75% of not winning the Stanley Cup. In the last fifteen years, only two teams to win the PT have won the Stanley Cup. Guess what? 2 /15 = 13.3%, or a little over twice as likely as the unweighted odds would indicate.

So, no, the team who wins the Presidents' Trophy isn't very likely to win the Stanley Cup, because there are 15 playoff teams who didn't win it, and only one who did. Needless to say, the field has a huge advantage of winning it over a single isolated team.

You get it and it's not exactly advanced probability. Seems you have some level of quant background, or just solid reasoning.

So the team who wins the Presidents' Trophy has traditionally low odds of winning the Cup? Yeah, I don't care. Neither should anyone else. All it means is that people don't comprehend math particularly well.

On sports boards, you're kidding

 

[heynowbababooey]

After all the hype its gonna be great seeing tampa lose in the playoffs. If I'm wrong I'll print out these words and eat em.

I knew they weren't going to win the cup but I never imagined a sweep in the first round.

 

[kladorf2005]

Too bad they didn't. One of them would still be alive right now

 

[ScaredStreit]

They both would have been eliminated in 4 games if they played each other in Round 1.

 

[Hoek]

Too bad they didn't. One of them would still be alive right now

Might've actually been a good series all things considered since they'd be equally bad, lol.